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June 24th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on June 24, 2014

4:55 pm EST:  Today we saw a new SP-500 all-time high precisely at the forecast 1968 target.  This 1968 level fits perfectly within the primary wave count calling for the top below the 1973.72 limit of the major [5]-P3-C1 ending diagonal.

The primary count is that wave v-(c) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 topped at the v=i target of 1968.  The P4-C1 correction down to at least the 23% fib retracement of 1763 is underway.  This P4-C1 wave will be approximately a 10% correction into the early fall 2014.  I’m looking for 5 minor wave decline from 1968 to the 1849 pivot complete major [A]-P4 before a 50% retrace to 1902 for major [B]-P4 and then a larger drop for major [C]-P4 down to 1763.

The alternate (blue) count is that wave minute (5) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 completed at 1968, just below the wave (5)=0.62*(1) target of 1974.  Wave minor 4 should retrace 23%/38% of minor 3 back down to the 1933/1910 before minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 completes in the 2000-2023 area, where minor 5 = 0.62*minor.  The alternate (blue) count will remain valid as long as the minor 4 retrace remains above the minor 1 high of 1884.  Thus it will take a break of 1884 to fully confirm the P3-C1 top is in place.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 6-24-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 6-24-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 6-24-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 6-24-14

Done forget this year 1998 vs year 2014 scenario posted here on June 5th.  It is still looking good with the Russel-2000 below it’s March 2014 high.

In the year 1998, P3-C5-SCIII topped for the SP-500 in mid-July.  Like the year  204 the Russell-2000 was lagging the SP-500 all spring as it topped P3 in March well ahead of the SP-500.  In the year 1998 like 2014, the year Russell-2000 dropped below it’s 200-day SMA in late April before rallying into mid-July to form the right shoulder of a large head and shoulders topping pattern that ushered in the P4 wave drop into October.  The details are shown below on the year 1998 to 2014 comparison chart between the RUT and SPX.

Year 1998 vs 2014 comparison for RUT vs SPX (6-5-14):



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