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April 14th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Upate

Posted by pugsma on April 14, 2014

4:40 pm EST:  The very reliable VIX Sell, SPX Buy signal completed the first confirming step (i.e. step 2) with a close back below the lower BB.  There is a 2nd confirming step (i.e. step 3) tomorrow if the VIX closes below today’s close (i.e. red VIX).  However, this 2nd confirming step is not required and often waiting for the 2nd confirmation means you miss a big SPX move higher.  The SPX  also closed back inside it lower BB, confirming a SPX Buy signal.  The chart details of both SPX Buy Signals can be seen here: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p23917655901&a=269536931&r=1377203427577&cmd=print

Primary count is minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1 bottomed at 1814.  The minor 3 wave up is underway headed above 2000 to 2047, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.  The first minute wave (1) of minor 3 should reach the 1900 area.  The move up from 1814 to 1834 today looks like wave i-(1) and the drop to 1816 wave ii-(1).   Next up should be a wave iii-(1) towards a target at 1868, where iii=2.62*i.   Ultimately the major [5]=[1] target is at 2085 for completion of P3-C1.  If minor 2 did not complete at 1814, then the primary count remains valid for minor 2 above the major [4]-P3-C1 low of 1738.

The alternate (blue) count is that P3-C1 topped at 1897 and P4 down has begun.  The first major [A]-P4 wave is unfolding as 5 minor waves headed for target near the 1775 pivot.  Wave minor 3 down is currently underway with wave (1) of minor 3 complete at 1814 and wave (2) of minor 3 targeting the 50%/62% retrace area of 1843/1850. Once wave (2) completes, wave (3) of minor 3 should drop toward a 1779 target.   Ultimately P4 should reach a the 23%/38% retrace target area of 1707/1584.  The alternate (blue) count remains valid below the 1897 high.

As always, you can use the 15-min chart for wave count sub-minete and minute degree details.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15min chart EOD 4-14-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 4-14-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 4-14-14

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