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March 19th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on March 19, 2014

4:40 pm EST:   This afternoon’s sharp drop from 1874 to 1850 puts the alternate (blue) count near equal footing with the primary count.

The primary count is that minute i-(3) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 topped at 1874 .  Wave minute ii-(3) of minor 3 was a sharp 62% retrace to 1850 late this afternoon.  Next up should be a wave iii-(3) headed toward a target at 1905, where iii=1.62*i.  Wave (3) should reach a 1921 target, where (3)=1.62*(1).  Ultimately, major [5]-P3-C1 should reach a target in the 1941 to 1953 area.   This primary count remains valid above 1840.

The alternate (blue) count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1 completed the (x) of minor 2 double Zig-Zag corrective at the 78% retrace of 1874 today.   Wave (y) of minor 2 should now drop to 1830, where (y)=(w), to complete minor 2.  The first drop from 1874 to 1850 this afternoon looks like wave a-(y) and move up the 62% retrace of 1864 was wave b-(y).  Next up should be a wave c-(y) drop to 1825, where c=1.62*a.   There is also a 50% retrace target for minor 2 at 1812, which corresponds to the 1814 pivot support.  Once minor 2 completes for this alternate (blue), there will be a new higher high than 1884 for P3-C1 just like for the primary count.   The alternate (blue) count goes invalid on a move above 1884 before a drop below 1840.

Note: a drop below the 1814 pivot range (1807 to 1821) would likely indicate that P3-C1 topped 1884 and the P4-C1 correction down to at least a 23% retrace target of 1697 is underway.  This is a 2nd alternate (red) count to be aware of should price begin to deteriorate further than the 1814 pivot.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 3-19-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 3-19-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 3-19-14

 

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