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February 6th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on February 6, 2014

4:50 pm EST:   We are in search of the “Denali Bottom” sometime between tomorrow Feb 7th (Jan NFP) and Feb 21st (Feb OPEX). http://pugsma.com/denalis-turning-points/

The primary count is that wave minor A of major [4]-P3-C1 bottomed at 1738.  This current move higher is a minor B wave.  The fib retrace targets for minor B are 38%/50%/62% (1780/1794/1808), with the 50% (1794) being the most typical.  However, looking at the details on the 15-min chart it is entirely possible that minor B ended today at 1774, which is the 1775 pivot and down channel resistance and back-test of the break below 1770.  Note that this minor B wave is rallying back up to the now falling 13-day EMA (1784) and 34-day EMA (1799).  Once wave minor B completes, wave minor C should head below 1738.  The 23% retrace target for the completion of major [4]-P3-C1 is at 1717.   The rising 200-day SMA is at 1710 and it has not been tested since Dec 2012 during major [2]-P3-C1.    I have looked back 20 years and this is one of the longest times since the 200-day SMA was back-tested.  This makes perfect sense for strong major [3]-P3-C1 wave that we have seen unfold during 2013.   However, I’m expecting this major [4]-P3-C1 wave to remedy that.

The alternate (blue) count is that minor A of major [W]-P4-C1 completed at 1738 and this move high is a minor B wave with the same targets as the primary count.  Once minor B completes minor C of major [W]-P4-C1 should head below 1738 with a target in the 1709/1687 pivot area.

Note that it’s the move up from the 1709/1687 pivot area that will separate the two counts.  The primary count will head to new highs above 1851 to the 1941 area and the alternate (blue) count will stall in the 1775 pivot area and drop new lows is in the 1556 area.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 2-6-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 2-6-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 2-6-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 2-6-14

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