January 24th, 2014: SP-500 Mid-day
Posted by pugsma on January 24, 2014
12:50 pm EST: Today’s SP-500 large price drop below the 1815 pivot puts the primary count is serious jeopardy and makes the alternate (blue) count at least as likely as the primary now.
The primary count is that wave (2) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 is playing out to the c=1.62*a target of 1794 or the 62% retrace of 1799. So far today the SP-500 has hit 1800.69. There are deeper wave (2) retraces at 78%=1786 and 88%=1778. However, the absolute limit of this wave (2) drop is at the minor 4 low of 1768. Should the 1768 level breached, then the alternate (blue) count would take over. Assuming the 1768 level holds during this wave (2) retrace, the next move should be a wave (3) of minor 5 to a level above 1900. A move first above 1832 and then above 1851 is required to confirm that wave (2) has ended and wave (3) up is underway.
The alternate (blue) count is that wave (3) of minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1 is underway that should complete soon in the 1800 to 1790 area. There should then be a small 23%/38% retrace wave (4) bounce before wave (5) of minor 1 heads lower to the 1780 target, which is the ideal double top (1849) target. From there minor 2 should bounce to the 1815 pivot area before waves minor 3 and minor 5 of major [A] reach a target in 1710 to 1687 area. Note that on the 60-min chart there is a large head and shoulders formation with head at 1849, neckline at 1768 that would target 1687. The rising 200-day SMA is also in the 1701 area and this is also a likely target for major [A]-P4-C1. The alternate (blue) count remains valid below the 1851 high.
Have a great weekend.
SP-500 15-min chart (mid-day):
SP-500 60-min chart (mid-day):
SP-500 4-hr chart (mid-day):
SP-500 daily chart (mid-day):
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