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October 23rd, 2013: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 23, 2013

6:00 pm EST:   The primary count is that wave iv-(1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 ended today as a flat at 1740.  Wave v-(1) should target at least the 1772 area where v=0.50* or 1780, where v=0.62*i.   From the wave (1) high at 1772, a wave (2) correction of 30%/50% fib retrace would reach the 1724 to 1709 pivot area.

The alternate (blue) count short-term variant of the primary count is that wave (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 ended yesterday at 1759.   Wave (2) is playing out as a double Zig-Zag that should target at least a 38% fib retrace at 1716, where w=1.62*y.  Today’s drop to 1740 is only the first Zig-Zag down for w-(2) and the move up to 1748 looks like a bear flag for x-(2).  There should now be a 31 point drop to 1717 to complete y-(2) at the 38% fib retrace or a drop to 1703 for a 50% fib retrace.

Note that a break above 1759 before a break below 1740 will confirm the primary wave count and break below 1740 before a break above 1759 will confirm the alternate (blue) count short-term variant.

Also note, that if you look at the 4-hr chart going back to Nov 2012, you can that wave (1) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C1 was above a 105 point move up from 1343 to 1448, which was followed by a 50 point, 50% fib retrace.  So if wave (2) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 follows the same pattern, we can expect the 1709 pivot area to be hit during this wave (2) pull-back for which ever short-term count plays out.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min Chart EOD 10-23-13

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min Chart EOD 10-23-13

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr Chart EOD 10-23-13

Finally as a preview (for paying subscribers) of the blogs 4 year anniversary free post planned for this weekend, you will see at the very bottom is a SP-500 monthly chart. This monthly chart shows my bullish long-term primary count for Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V in green that I have been tracking for the 4 years now.  In October of 2009 I showed this bull count and projected the SP-5000 would move above 1576 in next few years.  In April of 2013 the SP-500 topped 1576 and stands at 1746 today in October of 2013.  The primary wave count shows the Super Cycle IV Bear market from 2000-2009 ending in March of 2009 after 9 years as a simple expanded flat.  From the 667 low, Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V began in March 2009 and has been moving higher in 5 primary waves P1, P2, P3, P4 and P5.   So far the SP-500 has completed P1 (1422), P2 (1075) and is nearing the completion of P3 (1907-1940), with P4 down (1591) and P5 up (2047) yet to come in the next two years to complete Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V.   However, should the SP-500 fail to move above 1779, then this could have some very bearish long-term implications if the 1371 level is breach, see the alternate red and blue counts on the monthly chart.  For the alternate red count, SP-500 1779 is precisely were two equal value Primary degrees waves meet for the 667 low in March 2009.  These two waves could be PA and PC of a simple Zig-Zag for Cycle B of Super Cycle IV and could mean that SC-IV will play out as a much larger expanded flat over 19 years with Cycle C headed for a SP-500 target of 344, where C-C = 1.62*C-A.  It should also be noted that at 1757, C-B = 1.23*C-A, making it a near perfect expanded flat, which is a 3-3-5, A-B-C wave structure with B=1.23 A and C=1.62*A.  This alternate red count implies the SP-500 is about to drop 1415 points (-80%) over the next 5 years in a 5 primary wave impulse lower for C-C of SV-IV.  There is also shown on the SP-500 monthly chart an middle-of-the-road long-term alternate blue count that is basically a very large 19 year double corrective expanded flat (year 2000-2009) followed by a neutral contracting triangle. (2013 to 2019).  This double corrective wave structure was connected by a Cycle degree X-wave that began in March 2009 at 667 ends here in late 2013 at or below 1779 where PC=PA for C-X.  In either case, will take a break below 1371 (P1 High) before a move above 1779 to invalidate the primary green count and confirm the more bearish alternate red or blue count.   Neither the alternate red or blue counts are likely in my analysis, but in order to be complete after 4 years of being extremely bullish on the SP-500, I need to show these possibilities as the 1779 infection point was nearly hit this week.  If the SP-500 breaks though the 1779 infection point on route to my primary count P3-C1 target of 1907-1940, then these two alternate counts will be eliminated.

SP-500 Monthly chart (10-23-13):

PUG SP-500 Monthly Chart 10-23-13

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