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October 18th, 2013: Premium Service Offer for Q4-2013 (Nov-Dec)

Posted by pugsma on October 18, 2013

We had yet another great week here at PUG SMA since calling the SP-500 1646 low set on Oct 9th.  Early during the Oct 9th trading day we realized the DJ-30 was putting in a running flat low for major [4]-P3-C1 and the SP-500 was finishing up a running flat for minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1.  This important technical analysis information was conveyed real-time to the subscribers via the active comments section and then put into a blog post the evening of Oct 9th.   The SP-500 was trading the in the 1660 range at the time of the comments.  This put both the SP-500 and DJ-30 wave counts in to a very bullish bottoming configuration and projected that new market highs would soon follow (see the Oct 9th blog post below for details).  The SP-500 today sits at a new all-time high of 1745 on Oct 18th.   🙂  

If you would like to be to the join the PUG SMA premium service there is an offer below:

Sign-up for Q4-2013 (Nov-Dec) premium service for $80 and receive the rest of October for free.

You can read about the premium service description and how to complete the service subscription.

Check-out the SP-500 Long-Term View to see how things have unfolded as forecast the past 4+ years.

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Enjoy this weekends music from Ric Ocasek and The Cars – “Let the Good Times Roll”

Protected: October 9th, 2013: EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 9, 2013

11:00 pm EST:  The SP-500 does not count the same way as the DJ-30, but the conclusion is the same: P3-C1 is still underway headed higher than 1730 to at least P3=P1=1779.

The primary count for the SP-500 is that minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1 is playing out as a running flat wave (c)=(a) at 1648.  Thus, today’s 1646 low is the end of minor 2.  The move up to 1662 today was wave i-(1) of minor 3 of major [5] and the drop to 1655 near the close was wave ii-(1).  Now I’m looking for wave iii-(1) to be a move up to 1697, where iii=2.62*i   The wave (1) target is the 1709 pivot.  The minor 3 of major [5] should reach the 1795 area where minor 3 = 1.62* minor 1.  Ultimately,  major [5]-P3-C1 should reach  to at least the P3=P1=1779 or to 1861, where [5]=0.62*[1].

The alternate (blue) count variant to the primary count is that wave iii-(c) of minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1 ended today at 1646 and the a wave iv-(c) bounce to 1671 is underway.  Wave v-(c) of minor 2 should reach at least the (c)=1.23(a) target of 1629 and maybe to the (c)=1.62(a) target of 1597.   This alternate (blue) count remains valid as long as minor 2 of major [5] remains above the major [4] of 1560. Note that a move below 1560, would indicate that P3-C1 topped at 1730 and P4 is underway headed for 1481 or 38% retrace of P3.  This would be the alternate (red) count, not shown on the charts at this point.

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):


Oct 9th, 6:30 pm EST:   I think it’s important tonight to start with a step back and look a the big picture wave count since the March 2009 low.  It’s my opinion the DJ-30 tells a better story of the overall wave count and why Primary Wave 3 (P3) of Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) is very likely still unfolding with a higher, high ahead in the next few months.

Below are the daily and weekly charts on the DJ-30.  Notice that P3 is still well short of the P3=P1 target of 16,810 and for a typical impulse wave P3 is equal to or greater than P1 with typical Fibonacci relationships at P3=1.23*P1 and 1.62*P1.  Also, notice that the light blue E-wave channel for P3 is still intact with today DJ-30 low of 14,719.  Also notice that the waves since the May 2012 high of 15,542 count best as a 3-3-5 wave structure, which is a flat, where minor C=A at 14,719.  DJ-30 14,719 was precisely today’s low before the bounce to 14,852.  Therefore the wave count that has the “right look” on the DJ-30 daily and weekly charts is that major [3]-P3 ended in May a 15,542 and that since May the DJ-30 has been tracing out a 3-3-5 running flat for major [4]-P3, where C=A at 14,719.  While the DJ-30 could still drop a little more than 14,719 and stay in the light blue channel to complete major [4], the C=A=14,719 relationship hit today is very strong set-up for a bottom.  From here the next move for the DJ-30 should be a major [5]-P3 wave toward a target of at 16,810 where P3=P1 or has high as 18,282 where P3=1.23*P1.  There is also a major [5]=[1] target in between at 17,612.

More on the SP-500 chart updates to follow later tonight.

DJ-30 daily chart (EOD):


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