October 15th, 2013: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on October 15, 2013
5:30 pm EST: For both the primary and alternate wave count it looks we had a small flat for wave (2) or (b) today completed at 1696, where c=1.62*a. However, there is a possible lower wave (2) or (b) target at 1685, where c=2.62*a, which is at the 1687 pivot and is a 38% fiber retrace of wave (1) or (a).
The primary count is that once wave (2) completes at 1696 or 1685, then wave (3) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 will be headed for at least 1776, where (3)=1.23*(1). The minor 3 target is at 1795, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. And the major [5]-P3-C1 target is 1861, where [5]=0.62*[1]. This primary count remains valid above the minor 2 low of 1646, however the warning in bold red below should be read.
The alternate (blue) count is that once wave (b) completes at 1696 or 1685, then wave (c) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 will be headed for a target between 1730 and maximum of 1749 (note major [5] ending diagonal maximum is 1646 + 103 = 1749). Note that a move above 1749 will invalidate the alternate (blue) count and confirm the primary count. Once thing to remember about an ending diagonal is that the 5th wave can fail to reach the 3rd wave peak or in this case 1730. A failure to break above 1730 now that the SP-500 has reached 1711 will likely send the SP-500 price falling rapidly back down toward were the ending diagonal began at 1560.
As noted today in the comments section, the SP-500 50-day SMA of 1678 should be monitored closely, as a close back below the 1687 pivot range (1680-1694) and below the 50-day SMA (1678) would likely mean the top of P3-C1 is in place at SPX 1730 and P4-C1 is underway headed below 1500 on the SP-500. The DJ-30 closed under its 50-day SMA (15,172) today and this could be an early warning sign.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD):
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