July 13th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on July 13, 2012
5:20 pm EST: Today went precisely as forecast. Both counts were looking for an aggressive move up to the 1350 to 1356 area and that is exactly what transpired in the SPX.
The primary count is that minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 kicked off from the 1325 low on Thursday. I’m tracking a 5-wave impulse high for wave (1) of minor 3 with target of 1363. After wave (1) ends at the 1363 pivot area, I’m expecting 50% retrace (or less) for wave (2) down to about 1344 before wave (3) heads much higher toward 1405. Also, on a break above the 1363 pivot area, I’m tracking a large IHS with head at 1267, down sloping neckline at about 1363 next week and that measures to a target area of 1518 (i.e. 1363 + 155). This is the likely target area for the completion of P3-C3 sometime early in 2013. The primary count remains valid above 1325.41.
For the alternate (blue) count this move up to just above the 62% retrace of minor 1 is a minor 2 of major [C]-P2-C3 wave. The limit of this minor 2 wave up is at 1374.81 for the alternate (blue) count to remain valid. Thus, minor 2 must end very soon hear near the 1363 pivot resistance. Assuming minor 2 completed today at 1358, then the minor 3 target is at 1277, where M3=1.62*M1. Ultimately, the most reasonable target for P2-C3 to end is the 50% retrace of P1-C3 at 1249. Below 1249, then we have some much more bearish unfolding like the second alternate (red) count that P2-C3 headed for 950-1000 as a large expaned flat.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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