July 10th, 2012: Update 1 – Afternoo/EOD
Posted by pugsma on July 10, 2012
5:05 pm EST: For both the primary and alt (blue) count the move to 1336 today looks like the end of a minor degree wave lower, that is for the primary count minor 4 of major [1]-P3-C3 and or the alternate (blue) count minor 1 of major [C]-P2-C3. Note: there could be one more small wave lower to about 1333 if the this minor degree wave needs more price.
For the primary count the next move up will be the third and final move higher for minor 5 of major [1]-P3-C3 of a large leading diagonal. The target area is the 1386 pivot, with a maximum at 1402 (i.e. M5 <= M3 <= M1 of the LD). From the 1386 pivot the major [2] wave down should correct to between 50%/62% (1327/1312) to a more a typical 78% (1293) for a LD correction. Note: The minor 4 wave of the LD must not fall below the minor 2 wave low of 1309 or the primary count become invalid.
For the alternate (blue) count there will be minor 2 move up to a 50% retrace area of 1356, before all heck breaks loose to the downside in a minor 3 of major [C]-P2-C3 wave headed for the the 1257 pivot area.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
2:15 pm EST: With this 4th day of persistent weakness and another new low below yesterday’s low, this move lower is move more than a minute (4) of minor 3. It’s more likely a minor 4 correction of a Leading Diagonal (LD) for major [1]-P3-C3 of the primary count. Also the waves up since the 1267 low in early June does count well as 3-wave moves, which is consistent with an LD. LD’s can occur in position 1 of an impulse or A of a corrective wave, which also fits. Here once this minor 4 reaches it’s low around 1340, there should only be one more push up for minor 5 of major [1] to a slightly new high above 1375 at about the 1386 pivot. From there we can expect a deep major [2]-P3-C3 retrace to the 1291/1315 pivot region.
The alternate (blue) count is unchanged in that his move down is the final wave (5) of minor 1 of major [C]-P2-C3 with a target around 1340 to 1334.
SP-500 60-min chart (2:oo pm EST):
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