January 27th, 2012: Update 2 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on January 27, 2012
5:05 pm EST: Today was not particularly revealing in regards to short-term wave count. Next week is going to very telling as I expect a pretty big move in either direction (i.e down to 1283 or up to 1353). Based on today’s price action it’s pretty much a toss-up, but I’m leaning toward the primary count calls for a minor 4 correction down to the 1283. In the alternate count’s favor is the fact that SPX price held the lower dark blue channel line above 1309 and closed above the key 1315 pivot. Also in the alternate counts favor is that fact that the $NYMO made a small positive move today with the SPX closing lower. This is a small $NYMO positive divergence that could lead SPX prices higher next week. Also VIX closed down with the SPX down which is another positive divergence and could lead the SPX higher next week. So there is quite of bit of classic TA in the alternate count’s favor, even though my gut says the primary count is correct.
Primary count is that wave (a) of minor 4 of major [3]-P1-C3 ended this morning at 1312 and wave (b) ended at 1320 this afternoon. The next move I’m expecting in wave i-(c) of minor 4 down to test the 1303 pivot. And ultimately I’m looking for wave (c) of minor 4 to 1285, where (c)=1.62*(a), which is also at the 38% retrace target of 1283.
The alternate (blue) count is that wave c-(4) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 ended this morning at 1312. And then wave i-(5) reached 1320 this afternoon. I’m expecting wave ii-(5) to remain above 1312 and find support at the 1315 pivot. From there wave iii-(5) should target the 1348 area, where wave iii=4.2*i and wave v-(5) of minor 3 should reach 1353, where (5)=(1). However, any move above the previous high fo 1333, will satisfy the completion of wave v-(5) of minor 3.
Support is at the 1315 pivot and then the 1303 pivot. Resistance is at the recent high of 1333.
Have a greak weekend !
SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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