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January 19th, 2012: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on January 19, 2012

5:45 pm EST:   The primary count is that wave v-(5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 completed today at 1315 or will compete early tomorrow at the 1319 target, where (5)=(1).  With minor 3 in the books, we can look for minor 4 to retrace the typical 23%/38% of minor 3.   The minor 4 targets are 1289/1292 (23%) and 1272/1275 (35%) basis the end of minor 3 at 1315/1319.  Remember that wave 4’s also like to retrace back to the wave 4 of lesser degree, which in this case is 1278.  For this primary count to remain valid the minor 4 retrace must hold above the minor 1 high of 1267.  The cool thing about this 1267 threshold is that is also the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) neck-line that must hold for a move to the IHS target of 1376 to continue.  So it fits well with both the count and IHS pattern.

 The alternate (blue) count variant to the primary is that wave i-(5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 completed today at 1315 or will complete tomorrow at 1319.  From 1315/1319, I’m expecting a 50%/62% retrace to the 1292/1927 area for wave ii-(5) of minor 3.   And I think waves iii-(5) and v-(5) of minor 3 will reach the 1340/1344 area, where minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1.

Support is at the 1303 and then 1291 pivots.  Resistance is at the 1315 pivot and then the 1363 pivot.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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