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January 17th, 2012: Update 2 – Afternoon/EOD

Posted by pugsma on January 17, 2012

3:30 pm EST:   I am going to move the very bearish intermediate term alternate count for PB-C2 topping here at 1303 to 1311 onto the back-burner.  I want to remain focused on the shorter term counts and for that I need both the white (primary count) and blue (alternate count) labels.  The very bearish PB-C2 count has been moved to orange (warning labels) left on the longer term 60-min, 4-hr and daily charts.  I will use the short-term count white and blue labels on the 15-min and 5-min charts to show the primary count (white) and it’s variant alternate count (blue).

For the primary count (white), the SP-500 is in wave (5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3.  This wave (5) began from the wave (4) low of 1277 on Friday, Jan 13th.   Wave (5) should be 5-waves up to a target of 1319, where (5)=(1).   So far today we have 3 waves up to 1303, which is labeled at the wave iii-(5).  As long as wave iv-(5) remains above the wave i-(5) high of 1287, then wave v-(5) should extend higher than 1303.  If it the SP-500 price breaks below 1287 before above 1303, then the alternate count variant listed below is playing out.

The alternate (blue) count variant to the primary count is that wave (4) is playing out as an expanded flat (3-3-5 wave move).  Wave a-(4) ended as a 3-wave drop to 1277 on Friday, Jan 13th.   Today’s 3-wave move up to 1303, was wave b-(4).  And now a move down to a target of 1271, where c=1.62*a should unfold as a 5-wave drop.   The 38% retrace of wave (3) target is 1271 and the 50% retrace is at 1263.  A move above 1303 before below 1287 will invalidate this count and confirm the primary count above.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (3:30 pm):

SP-500 60-min chart (3:30 pm):

SP-500 4-hard chart (3:30 pm):

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