Apr 8th, 2011: Update 3 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on April 8, 2011
I have decided to keep the Premium Service Enrollment for Q2-2011 (April 1st to June 30th) OPEN until Sunday, Apr 10th. After Sunday there will be no sign-ups until June 24th-30th which will be for Q3-2011. You can read about the service description (there have been some changes), the requirement to sign the TOS Agreement and sign-up information here: http://pugsma.com/pug-premium-sign-up/
6:00 pm EST: The SP-500 hit the 1340/1344 gap resistance again at 1339.94 early this morning then sold off in the afternoon to test the 1319/1323 gap support and 13-day EMA at 1323. This 1323 area held and the SP-500 closed above key support at 1328.
In reviewing the charts for all time frames after the close today, I believe the best primary count (white labels) is that minor 4 of major [5] of Primary 3 (i.e. 4-[5]-P3) ended today at 1322.94. The minor 3 peak was at 1339.38 on April 6th, where minor 3 = 1.62* minor 1. The minor 4 pull-back played-out as an expanded flat down to 1322.94, where (c)=1.62*(a) at 1322. The “gap of recognition” at 1319/1323 for wave iii-(3)-3 should remain open for this primary count to be correct, so the pull-back should be over today or there could be a double bottom at 1323 on Monday. I’m expecting a 40 point move up to the 1363 pivot for minor 5-[5]-P3 over the next few weeks to a month. There is confluence of targets near the 1363 pivot. First minor 5 = minor 1 at 1363. And major [5]=[1] at 1367. This should conclude Primary Wave 3 (P3) in late April to mid-May. And I’m expecting a 90 to 110 point (-8%) pull-back to the 1257 pivot for Primary Wave 4 (P4) going into the summer months.
There is a reasonable high probability alternate count (blue labels) that could play out if the market drops below 1322.94 next week and closes the 1319/1323 gap of recognition. This count would have 1339.38 as the top of minor 1-[5]-P3 and the on-going pull-back as minor 2-[5]-P3. Targets for minor 2 range from 1319 (23% retrace of minor 1) top 1305 (38% retrace of minor 1). There is pivot support at both of these retrace locations. The very interesting thing about this alternate count is that is set-ups a large inverse head and shoulders (IHS) or cup and handle pattern (CHP) that measures 90 points (i.e. 1339-1249) and projects to 1429 (i.e. 1339 + 90) to complete minor 5-[5]-P3. This would mean that Primary Wave 3 (P3) would end near the 1440 pivot in late May to mid-June. I really like this count and we should keep and open mind to it if the current rally of the 1249 low extends beyond the 1363 pivot.
Have a great weekend. It’s supposed to hit 80 degrees here in Chicago. Perfect weather to watch my high school son’s baseball double-header on Saturday. The boys are 7-1 and playing some great baseball early this spring.
SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):
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