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Oct 20th, 2010: Update 2 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on October 20, 2010

10:50 am EST:  Here is the updated 60-min chart.  If this triangle wave 4-[1]-P3 plays out over the next week, then it forms a bull flag at the end of a 146 point (i.e. 1186 – 1040) flag pole.   The measurement rule for a continueation bull flag pattern would be 1160+146 = 1306.  So this exceeds my 1250 year end target.  🙂

SP-500 60-min chart (10:45 am):

10:35 am EST:  Here is the updated 5-min chart.  You can see that wave (b) has some more room to move higher, as we may have only put in waves a and b of (b) thus far.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=850962c5-94ce-4da1-85dd-e6a84189bac3

SP-500 5-min chart (10:30 am):

 

10:20 am EST:  OK, the primary count is looking great, as we had a back-test of the broken trend-line at 1174 early this morning.  Just keep in mind that the (b) wave of this corrective can reach the old high of 1185.53 if it’s a flat or even exceed the old high if it’s an expanded flat for wave 4-[1]-P3.  After the (b)-wave completes, I’m looking for  test of the 1150 support if the (b) ends here near 1175 and we have a normal Zig-Zig with (c)=(a).  And if the (b) wave reaches the old high of 1185.53 then we should expect a test of 1159.71 in the (c) wave of a flat.  Finally if the (b) wave exceeds the old high of 1185.53, then we should expect a test of the 1150 support in a nasty (c) wave of an expanded flat.

I have a new alternate count for wave 4-[1]-P3 that I’m really starting to like.  It would be that minor degree wave 4-[1]-P3 will play out as triangle over the next 2 weeks (i.e. unitl the Nov 2nd election and Nov 3rd Fed QE2 announcement).  Wave 4’s love to take a long time to play out and this being a minor degree wave it should last a week or more.  The primary count above has the wave 4 playing out quickly in only a few days, but with a larger price drop.  This alternate count for wave 4-[1]-P2 would dance around the 1168 and 1177 pivot area buying time before the wave 5-[1]-P3 push to 1250 going into the end of the 2010.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=64993653-4060-4019-90a0-eaed1ffc8fc7

SP-500 15-min chart (10:05 am):

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