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Aug 3rd, 2010: Pre-market – Update 1

Posted by pugsma on August 3, 2010

9:05 am EST:  ES futurs traded in a tight range of 1117 to 1122 (1121 to 1126 cash) overnight.  This is indicative of a wave-iv.  It looks like we need one more push up in a wave-v to above ES 1127 (1131 cash) to complete this first wave 1 of (3).   The first level to watch on the downside is ES 1112 (1116 cash) which is the 200-day SMA, so wave iv of 1 of (3) should stay above ES 1112 (1116).  Any break below ES 1112 (1116) should stay above ES 1102 (1106) to avoid a wave iv into wave i overlap which would signal an end to the move higher.

Just keep in mind that the big picture is that wave (3)-3-[1] of the primary count should reach the 1150 to 1170 area.  So pull-backs from now should be small.  If we get a big pull-back, particulary if we can’t get through the ES 1127 (1131) area and fall back under ES 1102 (1106), then the alternate count of the leading diagonal  for wave 1-[1] is in play.  The alternate count requires a deep pull-back to at least 1082 and more likey 1069.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=18f02a10-cf5a-4d58-b692-de431f58e8b0

ES Futures (8:33 am):

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