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July 26th, 2010: Update 2 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on July 26, 2010

11:25 pm EST:  The SP-500 has hit 1111.78,  and is looking to pass through  the 1113 area of the 200-day SMA.   What’s interesting is just how much the SP-500 is lagging the DOW-30, Nasdaq and Russel-2000, which have all decisively passed through their respective 200-day SMA’s.   So you’d think the SP-500 would soon follow suit with the other indices.  Primary count is still that this is wave iii-(3) targeting 1137.  Staying in the upper channe above 1105 today and closing above 1113 would further confirm this count.

Notice on the 15-min chart how late in the today on Friday, the SP-500 back-tested the broken neckline at 1097 and it held, resulting in the run higher into the close on Friday and then the continuation higher today.  This is typical behavoir of a head and shoulders pattern during a neckline break and re-confirmation.  

The alternate count is still that this push higher is just wave i-(3) and thus we are still at the very beginning of wave (3) and not yet in wave iii-(3).  This could would come into play if the SP-500 stalls near 1113 and drops back into the lower channel area for  wave ii-(3).

SP-500 15-min chart (11:15 pm):

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