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Dave K said
Hi Steve, is it the weekly Green (not seen on the daily chart) the higher probability count?
pugsma said
No probabilities on the TLT, just chart patterns and lines of interest.
Steffan Christensen said
Nice close above the 20 week ma at 4527. If this week was the back test it should open for new highs according to springheel jack
pugsma said
If we don’t see an immediate (within next two days) burst above 4637 for the minor 5 wave of the primary (white/green) count, then a triangle may form here for minor 4 lasting a week.
Stephen Schneider said
Thanks for the short-term update Steve. Greatly appreciated!
pugsma said
I just updated the GOOGL and AMZM charts in the 2022 Custom Chart Archive Service.
CCA 2022 Link: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
The balance of 9 months (April-December) of the 2022 CCA Service and be purchased for a pro-rated price of $270: https://pugsma.com/product/custom-chart-archive-2022-annual-subscription-12-months-jan-dec/
pugsma said
For the fans for Arcade Fire (like me), they just dropped to two new songs Lightning I, II off the new Album, WE!
It’s a post pandemic reflection and look forward…
https://youtu.be/qJiALpiqpk8
pugsma said
The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative looking to close high that when the SP500 hit 4637.
This would be sign that the minor 4 correction ended at 4508, and minor 5 is headed higher as labeled per white/green primary.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354
pugsma said
And it did close at a higher high.
PHIL V said
What are the Primary minor 5 wave minute targets?
pugsma said
The SP-500 15-min chart above shows minute (1) of minor 5 at 4662. But if 4543 is breached then, minor 4 will likely become a tringle wave, as note yesterday.
PHIL V said
Thanks for the response. I meant to ask for your minuette targets, not minute
(if SPX stays above 4543)
Anjali Tewari said
Basis the break of 4543 – can you share the prices for the a,b,c,d,e for triangle – is there a point where we would say that wave 1 up has ended ?
pugsma said
Minor 4 is valid above the Minor 1 high at 4417. Until 4417 is broken below the minor 4 and minor 5 waves of major [1] are still underway.
There are several options for the minor 4 to play out.
1) compete 4508
2) triangle between 4508 and 4637
3) drop to 38% Fib at 4455
pugsma said
The Elliott Wave Theory “guideline” of wave 4 vs 2 alternation would indicate that minor 4 should be a shallow (23%/38% Fib retracement) that is a triangle or flat vs the minor 2 wave that was a very sharp zig-zag to an 88% Fib retracement.
pugsma said
Had a subscriber pay for a TSLA chart update today, so the daily and weekly charts of TSLA were updated in the 2022 CCA.
https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
pugsma said
I also updated the ARKK daily chart
pugsma said
Nasdaq-100 insider buying is extremely high.
https://twitter.com/jaykaeppel/status/1511338787804270596?s=21&t=IQfjg4QQAIWo_kaE_l37Eg
pugsma said
SP500 Cycle Composite (based on years 1950 to 2021) for 2022 shows that the strength ends in late April to early May, then summer weakness. Major [1]-P3 needs to break above 4635 in April before major [2]-P3 correction this summer. End of the year composite looks very strong for the major [3]-P3 wave higher.
https://twitter.com/williedelwiche/status/1511310785846427651?s=21&t=IQfjg4QQAIWo_kaE_l37Eg
pugsma said
All the wave count options are back on the table with the drop to 4460 today.
pugsma said
OK I’ve added the wave count detail down to the 15-min chart for the SP500 for all three completing wave counts.
Breaking back above 4546 pivot area is a key for the primary (white/green) count.
pugsma said
I will add the alt(blue) and alt(red) wave counts to the IWM and QQQ charts tomorrow.
orion.colorado said
Would the probability weights of primary v red v blue portrayed on SPX update be able to be roughly applied to the IWM/QQQ primary v red v blue counts or are the three too different to allow for that cross referencing?
pugsma said
Roughly the same.
orion.colorado said
Thanks. Didn’t want to assume
Brad Dantone said
Thanks Steve.
pugsma said
AAII Weekly Sentiment drops to 25% Bulls, 41% Bears
https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1512024286848032777?s=21&t=qTL980Ir4EgmUyFerh2nLw
pugsma said
Risk Appetite Ratios continue to be at Dec 2018 and March 2020 lows
https://twitter.com/andrewthrasher/status/1512055712922456068?s=21&t=Ko3mEDRIw0c1xU6x_BcRfQ
pugsma said
So All the “Bad News” from the Fed is out there now:
1) Possible two, 0.5 point rate hikes in May and June
2) Target as high as 3.5% Fed Funds Rate
3) $95 Billion/month in Fed Balance sheet run-off (QT)
What happens with this Fed policy as inflation fall precipitously in the second half of 2022.
Anjali Tewari said
Can you share the key price level to watch for ble and red count confirmation for the QQQ
pugsma said
primary (white/green) valid above 338.16 (as has been shown for over a week)
alt(blue) valid above 317.56 low
alt(red) confirmed on a break below 317.56
Anjali Tewari said
Thank you !,
pugsma said
FYI I needed to re-do the QQQ charts above.
1) This pull-back from 371.83 to 348.69 is near a 50% Fib (344) of the move up from 317.56 to 371.83. Thus 371.83 has to be the top of at least minor degree wave (See #2 Below).
2) After stepping back and looking at things from the bigger weekly chart picture. IF P2-C3 bottom at 317.56, then P3-C3 has to be in the very early stages of major [1]-P3. Since P3-C3 is likely to last 7+ years, the major [1]-P3 wave up needs to last nearly a year. That means the move up from 317.56 to 371.83 (lasting only 2 weeks) is only minor 1 of major [1]. And this pull-back is only a minor 2 of major [1] that must hold above 317.56.
pugsma said
The QQQ’s have set-up a potential bullish IHS here with head and 317.56, neckline at 370.10 and target of 422.64 (new all-time high).
This minor 2 wave pull-back in the right shoulder. The minor 3 wave target is minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 at 432.61. I’m expecting this minor 3 target to hit near year end 2022.
rocket77 said
Hi Steve.. how can this be a P3-C3 of any kind with the amount of pain that is out there. The indexes don’t tell the full story as they are concentrated in a few stocks. Does the number of stocks below their 200 sma, and the declines of 50-70% among growth stocks consistent with a P3-C3? Thank you.
pugsma said
It’s the very early stage of P3-C3, specifically minor 1 (4637) and now minor 2 of major [1]-P3.
So far minor 2 hasn’t even retraced 50% to 4376.
Minor 2’s job is to cause extreme doubt and remains valid above the 4115 low for P2-C2.
pugsma said
Also there were 26 breadth thrust signals that triggered on the move up from 4115 to 4637 on the SP500, including many trust signals for the Nasdaq and NYSE.
These breadth thrusts called the bottom in all cases from 1982 to 2022, except for 2008 to 2009 period.
Odds heavily favor the primary count or it’s similar but deeper retrace for the minor 2 wave of the alt blue count.
https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital/status/1510023599142309890?s=21&t=LbhQNn-Y1B9oari4stTDHg
pugsma said
Notice that with today’s lower lows, all three 60-min charts above now display potential
+DIV on MACD and RSI.
pugsma said
It’s also possible that the NYMO closed below it’s lower BB today. Final reading near 6pm EST.
pugsma said
The NYMO closed at -33 vs -31 on its BB. That’s step 1 of the NYMO based SP500 Buy.
pugsma said
The 26 bullish breath thrust models had max drawn downs in the area of the 50% Fib at 4376.
Key area to hold in the next few sessions…
https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital/status/1512640467678150658?s=21&t=j2p06casks5Tcglb2UkV8A
pugsma said
For the paid members for the 2022 Custom Chart Archive Service, I just completed a big update on the charts of AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL and TSLA.
https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
pugsma said
I also updated the ARKK chart.
PHIL V said
with the SPX low today if 4381, is the Blue Alt now the Primary?
pugsma said
The primary (white/green) and alternate (blue) are the same wave count for a minor 2 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave that must hold above 4115. It’s just a matter of how deep the minor 2 wave retraces.
I’ll keep the primary (white/green) at the 50% Fib of 4376 and the alt(blue at the 62% Fib of 4313 or lower.
pugsma said
I just added a DIA (DJIA-30 tracking ETF) chart update to the 2022 CCA Service: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
Wazzu82 said
Nice to see yesterday’s confirmed NYMO buy trigger signal working like a charm today.
pugsma said
Breaking above 4471 and then above 4521 will remove the low probability (15%) alt (blue) minor 2 lower low than 4381.
pugsma said
Breaking 4521 removes the alt(blue) and above 4637 removes alt(red) counts.
Both alt counts are low probabilities at less than 15% each.
pugsma said
I’m looking for a “gap up at go”tomorrow to clear the key moving average cluster between 4458 and 4494.
pugsma said
If we get this price action tomorrow, then the SP500 won’t look back on the move up 5229 for minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3 by October 2022.
mike Soteropoulos said
We will be looking for that “Giddy Up!” Call for you as it happens! Thank you for the guidance.
pugsma said
NYSE 84% upside volume day today.
Back-to-back 80% upside volume days is an old school technical indicator of a bullish initiation trend change ( ie. Primary count Minor 3 wave up).
https://twitter.com/walterdeemer/status/1514338520638398467?s=21&t=TKQ8FDykUB8-S-p7ePOkeA
pugsma said
AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment at 16% Bulls (lowest reading since 1992) and 48% Bears.
https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1514585299300622340?s=21&t=wXNh6-nlDaNBNAHWQK7K3A
pugsma said
https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1514560692459905024?s=21&t=wXNh6-nlDaNBNAHWQK7K3A
pugsma said
I just updated REGN in the 2022 CCA Service: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
REGN has followed the E-wave road map laid out back in November 2021.
pugsma said
IWM is now looking more like a bear flag (than a bullish double bottom) with the overlapping price action since the 187.92 low.
If IWM breaks below 187.82, will have a measured move target of 163.59.
ZH said
Thank you for Posting TLT chart.
Russell Bailey said
Have a great weekend Steve, great update. Next week will be interesting, supported by the probabilities here. 60% chance we go lower (either blue or red), higher than I expected.
Nuno Reis said
Hi Steve,
On the daily chart ndx and sp , these last 3 days I think we are facing a bullish stick sandwich. if Monday we have a close above yesterday’s candle, we have our trend change.
Thanks
Sagar Patel said
Steve, don’t know if my eyes are deceiving me but please confirm…I see a “quintuple” positive divergence on the 60 min MACD histogram … don’t remember ever seeing that before
pugsma said
Nice move up early today.
Clearing above these levels sets the minor 2 low and confirms the minor 3 up:
SP500 4460
QQQ 447.69
IWM 202.37
Anjali Tewari said
Great call !! Can we please get a 15 min chart for SPY and QQQ – holding some short term options and trying to determine an exit
pugsma said
Note: the alt (blue) counts have been removed from the charts.
Now IWM must break above 212.25 and QQQ above 371.83 in order to confirm the primary (white/green) count or break below 195.88 on IWM and below 335.79 on QQQ will confirm the alt(red) count.
The next two week are very key for the markets.
pugsma said
When the AAII weekly bullish sentiment drops below 20% , as it did last week; Look at this 30 of 31 (96% probability) stat for the the SP500 to rise +20% over the next 12 months. 20% high from 4370 is at 5244. My major [1]-P3 target is 5347.
https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1516484424845885441?s=21&t=la3IaXq5zPUm_ej1oVcrew
PHIL V said
Any price targets updates for each of the 5 minute or minuette waves in the minor 3 wave up, other than the 2 listed (primary) on the 15 min chart?
pugsma said
Look at the SP500, 60-min and 4-hour charts. Those charts show the tentative place holders for the minuette and minute degree waves of minor 3.
Need to get the minuette wave i of minor (1) complete to get better estimates.
Anjali Tewari said
With us reaching 4471 in a 5 wave move up – does that negate the chances of red or just mean that it could still play out to a higher level ?
Based on today’s price action is there a level which can give an earlier signal of red potentially playing out vs waiting for the break of the lows at 4387 ….
pugsma said
The alt (red) minor 2 wave is valid up to 4637. At 4471 it hasn’t even reached the 38% Fib of 4478. And a more typical minor 2 would reach at the 50%/62% Fib area at 4509 to 4536.
pugsma said
That said above the 62% Fib of 4536, the primary (white/green) wave count gets even more probable than the 75% it’s at now. Above 4536, it will have cleared all the key moving averages again and with all of them turning up and aligned bullish.
Anjali Tewari said
Very helpful !! thank you 😊
pugsma said
The SP500 opens at 4488, just below the key 200-day SMA level at 4496.
pugsma said
Keep an eye on the NYSE A-D Line cumulative. If it breaks out first to a new high above where the SP500 reached 4637, then the SP500 will very likely break above 4637.
pugsma said
The QQQ 50% Fib of the 5-wave move up from 335.85 to 347.56 is at 341.70 (just hit).
QQQ needs to turn around soon and rally above 347.56 or else it’s another failed rally and a break below 335.85 is next per the alt (red) count.
jamie flynn said
It basically all comes down to TSLA tonight. 450bps weighting in the QQQ.
pugsma said
It is never is about just one stock. That’s why my TA focus for more than a decade has covered the SP500 (500 companies) and more recently QQQ (100 companies) and IWM (2000 companies).
Jim Guthery said
Appears alt red will win. If indeed it becomes the path do you think it will be a sideways to down path or any chance we can just go straight down and bottom in a week or two?
pugsma said
Both are possible. A bearish minor 3 of major [C] wave down can be fast, as it’s the same a bullish minor 3 of major [3] up.
pugsma said
Again keep a close eye on the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative. For the bullish primary (white/green) count, it should lead and breakout first to a new above where the SP500 hit 4637, before the SP500 breaks above 4637.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354
pugsma said
Also remember that once a wave retraces above the 62% Fib (5536 on the SP500), then the probability off a new high (above 4637) increase significantly.
WaterRock said
We have turned down rather hard from the Red 2, 50% level. Is the Red probability rising here? If so, are there price targets for the first leg down of Red 3?
pugsma said
QQQ broke the recent 335.79 low. Thus QQQ is in an ongoing minor 2 of major [1]-P3-C3 correction above 317.56. Below 317.56 it’s the alt(red) continuing much lower in minor 3 of major [C]-P2-C3.
pugsma said
Looks like the SP500 will soon join the QQQ in a continued minor 2 wave lower than 4370. 62% Fib at 4313 is the next target below the 50% Fib of 4376.
pugsma said
Now after this reversal my comment from above on the alt(red) count minor 2 wave retracing more than 62% above 4536 applies the the primary (white/green) count minor 2 retracing more than 62% to 4313. Below 4313 the alt(red) count gets a lot more probable.
droc14 said
NAAD A/D cumulative (Nasdaq version of NYAD) is very close to breaking the March low which i beleive would mean that the QQQ potentially owes a lower lower than the march low. Need to check back after 6pm ET to see if indeed breaks that low. Supports the red count. Not being bearish here just the potential facts.
droc14 said
Closed at a new low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NaAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69119237901&a=785666345&listNum=1
pugsma said
So far today the SP500 has suffered a 120 point drop from 4512 to 4392 after a 52 point rise from 4460 to 4512.
Clearly this market has been highly volatile since the 4115 February low.
4-year presidential cycle, mid-term year Seasonally gets tougher after the end of April. It stays suppressed until after August.
Alt(red) count has new life at a 35% to 45% probability after today.
pugsma said
Also was ironic here today at the close versus the open is that the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative is nearing a break down of the level set near the recent 4370 low. Thus this NSYE A-D Line condition would predict a lower low than 4370.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354
droc14 said
i should have waited 30 second to post what i did above wrt the NAAD 🙂 LOL
pugsma said
Just a devastating day technically in all aspects for the bulls and the bullish primary (white/green) wave count.
pugsma said
Alt(red) count probably at least 45% now and could easily be viewed at closer to 55% to 60% after today. I will wait to see if the 62% Fib at 4313 can hold.
pugsma said
Also expecting the alt(red) count minor 3 of major [C]-P2 wave down to 4076 to be relentless like today, without significant bounces to get out.
pugsma said
I have to warn that with this big bearish reversal today and the loss of the 50-day SMA at 4413, there could be some nasty gap down a go moves on Friday and Monday. Setup is technically there for the alt(red) count minor 3 of major [C]-P2 to really drop big time over the next week toward 4076 target, where minor 3 = 1.62* minor 1.
Time to be very careful with investment capital here.
pugsma said
Remember for the alt(red) count there will be 5 minute waves down for minor 3 of major [C]-P2 from 4512 to 4079. Minnie (1) of minor 3 down will likely end in in this 4350 to 4300 area and produce a minute (2) bounce to confuse traders who are still bullish thinking the minor 2 low of the primary (white/green) count has ended and minor 3 up has begun.
pugsma said
The alt (red) count will likely produce the minute (2) of minor 3 bounce higher into the big tech earnings next week. Also last week of April is seasonally bullish.
If 4352 ended minute (1) of minor 3, then a 50%/62% Fib for minute (2) is at 4432 to 4452.
pugsma said
This minute (2) of minor 3 bounce to 4432 to 4452 is the the last exit point on the alt (red) count path down to 3823 to complete P2-C3.
pugsma said
Of course as mentioned before the close yesterday, a “gap down and go” waterfall type decline today and especially Monday is still a decent probability here in a minor 3 of major [C]-P2 bear wave.
pugsma said
General Comment/Opinion:
It seems that the US Fed officials are timing their hawkish monetary policy “comments” perfectly to induce the alt() count. Thursday’s comment by Chair Powell was timed perfectly at the bull/bear inflection point of 4504/4536. Powell’s hawkish comments induced a nearly 200 point SP500 drop.
The US Fed needs the deflationary effects of a lower stock market to curtail consumer spending.
pugsma said
The alt (red) count would take the SP500 price back to where year 2021 began at 3762.
The big irony in all this is that for all of year 2021 the US Fed kept its foot on the QE and ZIRP policy pedal, with signs of inflation getting out of control. Now they are behind the curve and rushing to catch up. They could have avoided all this with a policy adjustment by mid-year 2021.
pugsma said
And if you booked your gains in late 2021 or every early 2022, then you should be licking your chops to buy back in at the beginning of year 2021 price near 3800.
pugsma said
Imagine how good the price will be on the high growth ARKK names at 3800 on the SP500. Most will be off 70% to 80% from their highs.
pugsma said
Yesterday’s and Today’s negative price action has set up the “potential “ for one of those once in a decade type market crashes early next week. Think October 1987 or May 2010 Flash Crash.
pugsma said
Price is we’ll below all key moving averages and all key moving averages are now sloping down.
pugsma said
SP500 62% Fib of 4313 just hit. Last stand here for the bulls and primary (white/green) minor 2 of major [1]-P3.
pugsma said
4280 just hit is between the 62% Fib of 4313 and 78% at 4230.
Trying now to close near the 62% Fib at 4313
Stephen Schneider said
Thanks for all of the excellent commentary today Steve. Let’s see how she closes.
pugsma said
QQQ hit 325.80 and came close to the 88% Fib of 324.07.
IWM hit 192.29 just below the 78% Fib at 193.27.
pugsma said
Basically QQQ has very little more room above 317.56 low.
Any more downside Monday has to be very muted on QQQ in order to keep the bullish primary (white/green) count alive.
pugsma said
The SP500 close below the 62% Fib of 4313 makes the alt (red) count at least 50% probably and likely closer to 60%.
pugsma said
The AAPL Chart was updated today in the 2022 CCA: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
pugsma said
QQQ hit 322.43 this morning, just below the 88% Fib retrace at 324.07.
The 88% Fib is a unique retrace area, that can sometimes be an explosive upside set-up as it fools the most traders.
William Waggoner said
Thanks Steve. Daily chart did not post for me.
pugsma said
Good volume on the SPY daily bullish hammer candle.
SP500 closed back inside its lower BB, triggered a SP500 buy signal.
However the VIX just barely missed closing bank inside its BB. VIX did put in a bearish topping candle.
pugsma said
For the CCA 2022 Paid Subscribers, I just updated the charts of MSFT and GOOGL before their earnings reports tonight after the close.
https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
pugsma said
I also updated the TSLA daily chart in the 2022 CCA.
pugsma said
Updated the AAPL daily chart at the close today in the CCA 2022 Service, with a slight tweak for the slightly lower low than Monday.
https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
pugsma said
So yesterday both the IWM and QQQ slightly undercut their February lows, while the SP500 did not, but came close at 4175 vs 4115.
It’s typically for a stock index to re-test it’s key lows. It can slightly undercut or hold that low and be a successful re-test.
I’m not saying this re-test of the February lows is successful at this point, as a week or two will need to pass with some bullish price action to determine that. However, I’m saying we need to be open to this possibility and the primary (white/green) and alt(blue) counts reflect this.
pugsma said
We have a potential double SP500 Buy trigger pull today, IF the SP500 can close back above its daily BB AND the VIX can close below its daily BB.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print
pugsma said
Neither SP500 Buy signal triggered at the close.
pugsma said
Pretty interesting BTC price chart vs # internet users and # mobile phone handsets.
https://twitter.com/timmerfidelity/status/1519053975085105155?s=21&t=4P2WQKDF4sNJ_xu4V8znlA
pugsma said
House Keeping: No blog updates needed tonight.
pugsma said
Paid Subscribers to the 2022 CCA and see the AAPL and AMZN chart updates right now, 1 hour before their earnings reports.
https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
pugsma said
Anyone not a 2022 CCA subscriber can get the final 8 months of 2022 at a pro-rated price of $240: https://pugsma.com/product/custom-chart-archive-2022-annual-subscription-12-months-jan-dec/
pugsma said
Also, with this afternoon’s big QQQ rally up to the 330 area, I was able to update the QQQ chart above to show the primary (white/green) wave count upside targets.
pugsma said
With the rally off the 184.71 low, I was able to update the upside targets for the IWM primary (white/green) count.
Brad Dantone said
Dan Russo breath update… – https://thechartreport.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ff3e9b002425db89405041ed1&id=42a4ef5631&e=8066c7dbff.
Anjali Tewari said
Is there something that will give a hit of whether we are on red vs white path after this gap down
pugsma said
Price vs my listed count validation levels.
The NYSE A-D Line making a new this week (when the SP500 closed at 4175) below where it was during the March 8, SP500 at close 4170, says to be on watch for a SP500 close below 4170. Also price doesn’t necessarily need to make an intra-day low below 4115.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354
pugsma said
Also any SP500 closes below 4175 with NYMO above -65 sets up a NYMO +DIV.
The NYMO is running very strong today only down at -30 with the SP500 hitting 4208.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print
pugsma said
And the VIX is also very tame today nearly flat with the SP500 off -1.5% (-67 points).
droc14 said
Red vix today I believe is the 3rd step in the vix/spx buy trigger.
pugsma said
Bulls really want the close today below 4170 with NYMO above -65 to set the potential +DIV and to clear out the NYSE A-D Line lower closing low condition.
pugsma said
And VIX could also close today with a potential -DIV wrt a lower SP500 close than 4175.
pugsma said
Then the set up is one more big flush on Monday to 4088 pivot and rebound to close above 4171.
pugsma said
Thoughts on potential timing for the P2-C3 low per alternate (red) count:
P1-C3 wave rose from 2192 to 4819 over 21 months from late March 2020 to early January 2022.
The P2-C3 wave price should retrace to at least the 38% Fib of P1-C3, which is 3821.
The P2-C3 wave time should be a 38% Fib of 21 months, which is 8 months or August 2022.
Remember that the market is looking about six months ahead. The Federal reserve is likely to raise rates for 0.25% to 2.5% over the next 6 meetings (May 3-4 to December 13-14) then pause. 6 months ahead of mid-Dec is mid-June.
So P2-C3 alt (red) should end between mid-June and late August near 3821.
pugsma said
For the SP500, QQQ and IWM to bottom here in late April to early May, the market would need to sniff out the Fed pausing earlier than mid-Dec.
pugsma said
The weeks AAII Sentiment survey (16% Bulls, 59% Bears) showed investors are more bearish than at any time since March 2009.
For 2022, The SP500 is down -14% and diversified bonds are down -11%. Inflation is up +8.4%. So even if you are in cash you are losing -8.4% to inflation!
https://twitter.com/mcclellanosc/status/1519695528052748288?s=21&t=z0lxjzZvBT-ooetXL6LLBw
pugsma said
Today’s price action thus far is ideal for the alt(red) count.
Yesterday at the 4300 area was the last decent exit opportunity on the way to alt(red) count down to at least 3821 by mid-June to August.
That’s another -9.3% down on the SP500 that at 4200.
pugsma said
Notice that the IWM daily chart is picture perfect technical set-up to re-test the Jam 2020 high at the 170 area. Both the large rectangle break-down below 209 and recent bear flag break down below 189 have a measure move target in the 163 to 173 area. Also there is weekly gap fill target at 166 to 169.
Brad Dantone said
Thanks for your extra work today…with the dollar chart standing out over other overwhelming bad news…probabilities are Red Red Red 3/3/3 Count.
pugsma said
Please refrain from making up wave counts here.
The alt(red) count is in minute (5) of minor 3 of major [C]-P2.
pugsma said
For the alt(blue) minor 5 = minor 1 at 4036 to complete major [C]-P2. Testing the nice round number of 4000.
pugsma said
I’ll be Looking to pull the trigger on some bullish options plays on Monday with SP500 trading between the 4086 pivot and 4036. Probably only a ST trade though.
pugsma said
New closing low at 4132. Set-up is there for an alt(blue) and alt(red) count flush to 4088 to 4036 on Monday. I’ll look to use cash to load up the truck there for at least a ST trade back to to 4179 to 4244.
Stephen Schneider said
Hi Steve,
Last week, you mentioned that a ‘flash crash’ type of event was possible given that the market cratered from ~4500 on the S&P last Thursday to the a low of ~4250 on Friday. Do you believe that’s still possible, or perhaps that’s pretty much been taken off the table – considering that sentiment is so gloomy, there may not be much left to crash from?
If this question is just plan silly, feel free to simply delete it.
Much thanks,
S.
pugsma said
I won’t say it’s off the table. The market could head for the alt(red count 3821 target in “flash crash” type event next well or take most of May into early June has shown on my charts.
Stephen Schneider said
Got it!
pugsma said
SP500 closed below its lower BB and VIX above its upper BB resetting those to technical but signals. Awaiting new triggers…
On a potential small positive note the VIX closed slightly lower today with new SP500 closing low of 4132 vs Tuesday close at 4175.
Also NYMO closed higher today at -50 with lower SP500 close of 4132 vs -65 on Tuesday with SP500 4175 close.
Michael Kalin said
$CPC clocked in at 1.33. Any comments on that?
pugsma said
Not surprising. $CPC hit 1.8 at Dec 2018 and March 2020 bottoms.
pugsma said
Good historical market summary of where we are now here by Chris C.
IF the SP500 doesn’t hold this 4115 to 4088 area or 3821 at most during the next 7 to 14 days, then odds of an even deep bear market down another -20 to -30% from Thursday 4284 close is very high. That would take the P2-C3 wave to the 62% Fib of P1-C3 at 3190 into August to September.
https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital/status/1520259300886781953?s=21&t=4Y1lJnZaOcVU4C-NeQyf8Q
Jim Guthery said
Damn, never easy. Thanks for guidance, this is one of the outcomes I feared the most.
pugsma said
IF the NYMO can close green today, it would confirm it’s +DIV with Friday lower low SP500 close at 4132.
pugsma said
The NYMO +DIV along with the SP500 closing back inside its lower BB and VIX closing below its upper BB, works be a very solid SP500 Buy set up.
pugsma said
I just updated the AMZN chart in the 2022 Custom Chart Archive Service: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
jrw said
Steve, it appears that you nailed the low, with both SPX and VIX back within their respective Bollinger bands, along with potentially a green NYMO.
pugsma said
Yes and a nice looking SP500 daily hammer candle too.
Now need the follow through above 4370 to confirm the P2-C3 bottom at 4063.
pugsma said
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1521231264807804928?s=21&t=ZrDNv0WVMyTAwbl4wMkk0g
pugsma said
In the 2022 Custom Chart Archive Service, I just updated the AMD charts before its earnings report tonight.
https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
Stephen Schneider said
Much appreciated, Steve!
Anjali Tewari said
Based on current price action what are the key levels to watch for both counts – we seem to be consolidating under 4200 , so do you still see 4233 as max for red bounce
pugsma said
4234 is the 38% Fib for red minor 4. Max for red minor 4 is at 4370 (minor 1 overlap).
Private (white/green) must hold above 4063 and break above 4370 to confirm P2-C2 bottom.
Nothing is resolved until either 4370 or 4063 is broken.
Jim Guthery said
Any timeframe for P3 minute 1 to take off if we have bottomed? Can we play pivot pong for awhile?
pugsma said
In order to confirm the primary (white/green) bullish wave count, IWM must break above 195.88 and QQQ above 335.79.
Jim Guthery said
Thanks! Everyone talking we need to go lower and we are in quad 4 cycle. I hope your primary plays out, you are about the only bull left.
Anjali Tewari said
Qqq forming triangle on 5-10 min
pugsma said
Drop from 4819 to 4063 (-15% over 117 days) Just a typical correction ( -14%, 133 days) so far;
https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1521525890785718284?s=21&t=vEIDSqcSn6CZUnm4WPE84g
stevesumma said
VIX red close $3.09 off 9.5%.
Giddy? Or wait?
pugsma said
VIX Sell, Signal is just one signal. Usually a ST signal.
Anjali Tewari said
The vix fell a lot but spy hardly moved – only 0.5%
kazoom1618 said
May the 4th be with you!
We could certainly use some light-speed action on SPX here…
pugsma said
Interesting bearish extreme data…
https://twitter.com/jaykaeppel/status/1521857448277168128?s=21&t=NAKuK3BYCGkDgrfeluqBxw
Michael Kalin said
Bitcoin might hold the clues; holding up remarkably well and refusing to make new lows as compared to $SPX. Up strong today…. seems to lead the way these days.
pugsma said
The SP500 traced a potential wave i-ii of minute (1) up between 4177 (i) to 4152 (a) to 4200 (b) to 4147(ii). Set up for and explosive wave iii-(3) up is present on a break above 4200.
Breaking back below 4147 would be bearish per at (red) count.
Anjali Tewari said
Pls can you share upside tgt for SPX and QQQ – previous one crossed – holding short term option and trying to decide whether to hold into tomorrow
Anjali Tewari said
Thank you
pugsma said
The QQQ hit 330.29 and needs to break 335.79 to invalid the alternate (red) count and confirm the primary (white/green) count.
The IWM hit 193.93 and needs to break above 195.88 to invalidate the alternate (red) count and confirm the primary (white/green) count.
pugsma said
Also of note is that both the IWM and QQQ now above both the 38% AND 50% Fib retrace for an alt(red) count minor 4 wave. That’s highly indicative of the primary (white/green) count.
Jim Guthery said
I hope we get a gap and go at market open and put this madness behind us.
AT said
Does this move today confirm the red count ?
pugsma said
From my text above:
Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4063 and a break above 4370 is required to confirm the P2-C3 bottom at 4063 for the primary (white/green) count.
Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4370 and confirmed on break below 4063.
pugsma said
TLT at 114.46 just hit the 114.62 pivot and is just above the December 2018 low at 111.90.
pugsma said
QQQ just 311.89; below 309.65 is required to confirm alt(red) count.
pugsma said
311.89 was a 88% Fib of the move up from 309.65 to 330.32.
pugsma said
The lowest SP500 close was 4132 last Friday, so today has the potential to break that closing level. Key will be where the NYMO closes IF there is new closing low below 4132.
pugsma said
Right now the NYMO is at -25 well above its -65 closing level from last week.
pugsma said
QQQ: Interesting data here on the clustering three of 96% down days (today is the third) over the past 10 trading days.
14 of 14 cases (100%) green (+) returns 3 months out with an average gain of +15.6%. That would be 4800 from here at 4150 by the beginning of August.
There are some cases with nasty drawdowns on average of -5.3% or 3930 from here at 4150. So could see 3930 (red count) before 4800.
https://twitter.com/jonathanharrier/status/1522248257371611140?s=21&t=Hzl1Cwf5GWnnR1EKXA53bA
Brian R said
This is definitely not white/green count 3rd wave behavior though, correct?
pugsma said
The white/green count is a minor 1 of major [1] wave. And more specifically minute (2) of minor 1 wave.
Brian R said
Sorry I was referencing your count on the 15min chart that had us in iii of (3) of 1 – unless I’m reading it incorrectly.
pugsma said
Breaking below the 15-min chart labeled minute (2) low at 4149, means wave minute (2) is still in progress above 4063.
pugsma said
QQQ just hit 309.79; below 309.65 confirms alt (red)
pugsma said
Interestingly, the broader Nasdaq Composite did make a slightly lower low today.
droc14 said
so QQQ did make a lower lower today at 309.62 vs 309.64 on May 2
pugsma said
Yes looks like the QQQ actually did undercut the low by 0.03.
pugsma said
House Keeping: No chart update tonight. I will however update on Friday.
The SP500, IWM and QQQ (barely) held their primary (white/green) count P2-C3 lows today. Thus, all three counts are a deep retrace for minute (2) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3.
Breaking below their respective primary (white/green) count lows, obviously triggers the alt(red) count minor 5 of major [C]-P2-C3 wave down to the 3933 to 3821 area.
AT said
What are your thoughts on QQQ considering it made a slightly lower low today – so does still keep wave 2 alive ?
pugsma said
QQQ can’t be in a wave minute (2) of minor 1 with the lower low than 309.65 today. However it could have put in it’s P2-C3 low at 309.62 as the SP500 and IWM retraced a their minute (2) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3.
AT said
Broke to a new low today so it confirmed a lower low … not sure what this means … any thoughts on the bounce appreciated …
Jim Guthery said
Check this stat out on “Markets in Turmoil”, from CNBC
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1522565809708711936
jrw said
Steve, with both IWM and QQQ putting in lower lows today and confirming the Alt red count, does that influence your thoughts on SPX?
pugsma said
Alt(red) count labels are now the primary count path for IWM and QQQ. However, realize that this count can bottom at any point now that their lows broke.
SP500 held the 4063 by low by 4 points at 4067. While it doesn’t have to follow the IWM and QQQ to a new lower low than 4063, it’s likely to.
The trading day (Friday) is young and markets rarely make a key bottom on a Friday. Monday and Tuesday are more typical key bottoming days.
Michael Kalin said
It’s looking like an awfully subdued $VIX (and a bearish $VIX candle) so far. Good divergence between $SPX and $VIX. $CPC had a drop as well… How is $NYMO looking?
pugsma said
NYMO is around -45 today vs -65 last Friday when SP500 had a new closing low of 4132.
A SP500 close below 4132 today with NYMO above -65 is a potential week long NYMO +DIV wrt to the SP500.
pugsma said
We did get the slightly lower low SP500 close at 4123 vs 4132 last Friday.
1) VIX closed considerably lower this Friday (30 vs 33) for a potential week long -DIV wrt SP500.
2) The NYMO closed considerably higher this Friday (-35 vs -65) for a potential week long +DIV wrt SP500.
Both of these technical conditional are potential bullish setups heading into next week.
jrw said
Per Urban Carmel, since 1997, SPX was down 5 weeks in a row 8 times. 7 of 8 times (88%) was not a bottom
https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1522672634969829376
jrw said
Per Seth Golden, since 2004, every, single, market bottom has been signaled by the 5-day moving average Equity Only P/C ratio of .75 or better. Friday’s reading was 0.62
https://twitter.com/SethCL/status/1523303883564797952
william puckett said
Just another indicator?
https://i.gyazo.com/98a860ef0d71ce832bf0590d2fa19a60.png
AT said
The NYMO positive divergence may get wiped out if we fall further
Michael Kalin said
What is $NYMO right now?
pugsma said
You don’t have ask this intra-day NYMO question. There is link on the left-have side of this blog in the “technical analysis” section showing the real-time SP500, NYMO and VIX on a single chart.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print
charles blood said
On the above $CPCE indicator: in 2008 many times was not the final bottom as it was March 2009. So if over .75 could have a bounce, but sill lower prices, if I am correct.
pugsma said
Nasdaq Composite hit 11,679 this morning, which is just above the 50% Fib retracement of the P1 wave at 11,421.
pugsma said
BTC: Technically speaking I’ve got some potential bad news for BTC. With the break below $32,500 today there is a clear bear flag ($32,500 to $48,500) break-down that has a measured move target of $32,500 – ($48,000 – $ 32,500) = $17,000. If you use the height of the $69,000 to $32,500 drop, then the target is $48,000 – ($69,000 – $32,500) = $11,500.
Remember BTC block rewards half roughly every 4 years. The last two halving were in the spring of 2016 and the spring of 2020. These halving produce a massive 2+ year bull run follows by a 2+ year bear market.
The bull run after 2016 halving peaked at $19,000 and bear low was $3000 in Dec 2018.
The bull run after the 2020 having reached $69,000 (a factor of $69/$3 = 23 gain) and now the bear low is do by Dec 2022 and could hit $17,000 to $12,000, based on the bear flag break down.
This will set-up the next BTC bull run into 2024 that could reach $12,000*($69,000/$3000) = $276,000 to $17,000*($69,000/$3000) = $391,000.
So the idea here is accumulate BTC from here at $31,000 all the way down to $17,000 to $12,000 over the next 6 to 8 months.
pugsma said
If I get some time this week I’ll show all this technical thinking on a BTC daily or weekly chart.
pugsma said
A big gap on Tuesday and close near the lows (3933 to 3822) , would likely drive the NYMO below it’s BB at -70 area and the VIX above its BB at the 36 area. The SP500 is already set to close below its BB of 4015 today.
pugsma said
The bottom needs the next day or two to produce massive fear!
pugsma said
A circuit breaker trip at down -7% on the SP500 from 4000 to 3720 is not out of the realm of potential outcomes for tomorrow.
pugsma said
Not enough fear at the close today. Need big fear tomorrow or on Wednesday with the “shocking” April CPI print.
pugsma said
20% SP500 drop from 4819 is at 3855 and the 38% Fib retrace of P1 is 3821.
Of note: The 2018 Christmas Eve key bottom on Fed rate hikes was a 20% SP500 drop.
pugsma said
The NYMO -65 reading from late April was likely lost today or very nearly lost at the close.
The next key NYMO reading to hold a above is -89 from the late Feb SP500 close near 4150.
Below close that -89 NYMO reading and it’s is a cascade SP500 waterfall well below my 3821 target. The NYMO can get buried below -120 down to -150 during those types of events. Extremely Dangerous next few days.
pugsma said
SP500 circuit breaker trip declines of -7% intra-dat are on the table now. Target is the 50% to 62% Fib retrace of P1 at 3505 to 3190.
This is the new alt(red) count with the primary (white/green) holding 3821.
pugsma said
Average SP500 bear market decline is -35% and last 280+ days, so that’s 3130 by Nov 2022.
pugsma said
Notice on the SP500 weekly chart that back in year 2011 the P1-C1 peak was a +109% Gain from the SC-IV low at 667 and the P2-C1 loss was a -21.6% loss to a 42% retrace of P1.
Fast forward to today the P1-C3 gain is +120% (similar to P1-C1) and the P2-C3 loss so far at 3975 is -17.5% to a 32% retrace of P1. Thus, dropping a little further to 3821 (-20.7% Loss and 38% Fib) would right in-line with P2-C1 back in year 2011.
pugsma said
On the IWM weekly chart, the price drop to 174.10 today hit the C1 high at 173.39 from Aug 2019 and the is near the pre-pandemic high of 170.56 in Jan 2020.
pugsma said
Note the NYMO closed today at -65.81 vs -65.56 back in late April. Thus the +DIV has been lost.
pugsma said
2 of last 3 days were at least 93% down volume days on the NYSE. Interesting signal dates and stats here:
https://twitter.com/jasongoepfert/status/1523776925017473024?s=21&t=Kde2bH8WH4R8x9yeoOIRTw
pugsma said
More chart details on the initial set of double 90% down Volume days (ie 2 out of 3 days) on the NYSE. All cases were good LT buying opportunities, except the 2008 (great financial crisis) and 2020 (Covid) cases.
In some cases there was a little more draw down (-2 to -5%) after the signal, but it still ended up being great area to buy for LT returns.
https://twitter.com/mark_ungewitter/status/1524006499638464513?s=21&t=PkZz9B1p5catlpIkJtXHSg
pugsma said
Interesting stats on where this -27% Nasdaq Bear market sits wrt to all Nasdaq Bear Markets. It’s just below the median of -32% .
https://twitter.com/nautiluscap/status/1523777532046491648?s=21&t=Kde2bH8WH4R8x9yeoOIRTw
pugsma said
At 116 days it’s already longer than the median 81 days.
pugsma said
Key level to watch today is 4067. Above 4067, the primary (white/green) count with 3975 as the P2-C3 bottom gains significantly probability vs the alt(blue) count with P2-C3 hitting 3821.
pugsma said
So here’s my general thinking with the wave counts.
Primary (white /green) & Alt(blue): Since the major indices began their P2-C3 correction in late Nov 2021, my base case has been a P2-C3 wave similar to the year 2011 P2-C1 wave that retraced 42% to a -21.6% loss. The 38% Fib for P2-C3 is at 3821 and that’s at -20.7% Loss from the P1-C3 peak at 4819. All the versions of waves counts shown here until yesterday, ended at or above 3821. This base case is no economic recession with moderating inflation in the 2nd half of year 2022. This is the same as the Feds goal and base case. In this base case the Fed will likely be able to slow and stop interest rate hikes near 2.5%.
New Alternate (red): This count assumes sticky inflation through all of 2022 and a mild economic recession late 2022 into early 2023. The Fed will have to do more increasing interest rates well beyond 2.5% to has high as 3.5 to 4.0%. In this cases the SP500 will likely head much lower for the 50% to 62% Fibs at 3505 to 3190. Most of this damage will likely be felt from July to October 2022.
pugsma said
The key to sorting this out are the next 2 to 3 monthly CPI reports beginning with the April report tomorrow at 8:30 EST.
pugsma said
If you look at history with a simple technical guide, when the economy entered a recession the SP500 initially fell -20% (3855), then bounced towards the now falling 200-day SMA (4485), failed and dropped -35% total on average (3130).
Thus clearing above the falling 200-day SMA, currently at 4485 is a big key to the bullish primary (white/green) or alt(blue) counts.
pugsma said
Technically speaking, the burden of proof is now squaring on the bulls. The 200-day SMA at 4485 must be re-capture over the next 1 to 2 months. Lingering below it sets up much more down side pet the alt(red).
MS53 said
Within 5 [C], today’s high at 4069 is a (4) into (1) violation. also make wave (3) of 183 pts. shorter than wave(1) 241 points. So, IF there is going to be another low under 3975, it’s limited to 4069-183= 3886. Would that be the case ?
pugsma said
It’s not a violation of the alt (blue) if as I have it labeled the minute (3) of minor 5 is still on going lower towards 3917. It would just be a i-ii of minute (3) and now iii-(3) headed lower. That’s why alt(blue) count says valid below 4158.
MS53 said
Thanks for clarification!!
pugsma said
House Keeping: No need to update the charts tonight. I’ll do my next update on Wednesday, May 11th near the close.
pugsma said
Great chart here. Only 16% of Nasdaq components trading above their 200-day SMA. Very similar to year 2011, P2-C1 bottom and bottoms in 2016, 2018.
https://twitter.com/lizyoungstrat/status/1524017204173303808?s=21&t=5gW2dM_MuON2MOuqGnF5EA
pugsma said
Love the Jim Cramer farming analogy on the markets here at this key bottoming area: separating the wheat from the chaff.
pugsma said
All my newly acquired “wheat” is performing well the past two days!
pugsma said
It’s important to think of the BIG picture now.
Acquiring the “wheat” near the low of P2-C3 of Super Cycle V (SC-V), has the potential to set things up for massive gains into the next decade.
pugsma said
A close today above the 4063 May 2nd and the SP500 is going RIP much higher!
pugsma said
A close above 4063 would represent a “false breakdown” and signal a double bottom at 4063 and 3958.
Double Bottom Target is 4637 + (4637-3958) => 5316 (the Major [1]-P3 target).
pugsma said
There is going to be an epic battle here between 3958 and 4063. Bears don’t want to let the SP500 close above 4063 and the bulls don’t want to lose 3958.
pugsma said
I just updated the IBB (Biotech ETF) in the 2022 Custom Chart Archive Service. This one looks very interestng…
https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
pugsma said
Summer weather has arrived in Chicagoland, finally. 90F the past two days!
I’m headed out for a long bike ride now. I’ll be back at the EOD with the SP500 chart update.
MS53 said
Are you back yet, Lance ? Can this weeks action be identified as a 3 push pattern ?
pugsma said
SP500 hit 3929 just above it’s 38% Fib of 3821
QQQ hit 390.95 just above it’s 50% Fib of 286.82
IWM hit 170.30 or right at it’s 50% fib of 170.08 (note there is an open gap to fill at 166 to 169 on the daily chart from Nov 2022)
Michael Kalin said
QQQ down 3% with $VIX down as well? I’ve never seen anything like that!
Also, I know this is an SP centric view, but would you be able to comment on relative strength of every other big markets? $DAX, $NIKK, $HSI all seem to be in bull flag formations (nowhere near the lows).
pugsma said
I don’t chart any of those global indices. I do recall the German DAX sold off far more (-23%) than the US (-14.7%) on the initial days of the Russia-Ukraine war. Now the US has caught up at -18.8% down vs DAX down only -15.1%.
pugsma said
Also the VIX red today is the outlier, since both the NYMO and NYSE A-D Line hit new lows with the new SP500 closing low. No sign of +DIV on NYMO or NYSE A-D line yet likely means lower lows ahead for SP500.
Michael Kalin said
The $vix during initial 2008 meltdown exhibited similar behavior to today. The initial sell-off from the Oct 2007 highs saw a massive $VIX spike. There were two subsequent lows on the $SPX (finally bottoming in March 2008), while the $VIX never eclipsed that initial spike (huge divergence). I’m made aware of this because the same perma-bears I used to follow are repeating the same (false) thing: “$VIX has to spike like crazy to mark a bottom”. Wasn’t true then… we’ll see about this time.
pugsma said
Yes. Typical -35% Loss or more Bear Markets tend to see an initial -20% loss in the SP500 (3855 area), then bounce back towards the falling 200-day (4482 area) and finally fail there in epic plunge much lower. That’s why my alt (red) count is how it is labeled.
pugsma said
Here are 16 times since year 2000 when the SP500 was down -1.5% and VIX red like yesterday.
12 of 16 (75%) positive one week later, by as much as +11%.
Of the 4 of 16 negative cases one week later, 2 were only down -1%.
https://twitter.com/markettells/status/1524497048363360256?s=21&t=F-w1HITay0HVyQYubHxKZg
pugsma said
SP500 will need to hit 3855 to be down -20% from the 4819 peak and confirm it’s Bear Market, eliminating the < 20% correction historical scenarios that are extremely bullish going forward from here. While there are a few (1/3) SP500 Bear Markets that only dropped just below -20% most (2/3) went on to drop an average of -35%.
pugsma said
Here is every SP500 Bear Market (-20% loss or more) going back to the Great Depression in 1929. There have been 22 Bear Markets in the SP500 over nearly 100 years.
The Average Loss is -36% (would be 3084) and Average Duration 14 months (would be March 2023).
However note that there are 7 of the 22 (32%) of the SP500 Bear Markets that ended between -20% (3855) to -22% (would be 3758). The most recent are years 2018 and 2011 (P2-C1 Bottom).
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1524413472280350730?s=21&t=F-w1HITay0HVyQYubHxKZg
pugsma said
It should also be note that the 5 biggest SP500 Bear Markets of 2008 (-58%), 2000 (-51%), 1973 (-50%), 1937 (-54%), 1929 (-86%). Heavily skew the average data of -36% Loss. Take this 5 out and you are looking at an average of -26% (3566).
pugsma said
Bulls really want to the SP500 to hold in this -20% (3855) to -22% (3758) area that corresponds to 7 of 22 of the bear markets.
The next batch (8 of 22) of SP500 Bear Markets is in the -24% (3662) to -37% (3035) range.
MS53 said
Steve, does today’s 3877-3964 show any potential merit ?
pugsma said
No confirmed P2-C3 bottom here until a move and close above 4063 (4049 if you are picking nits! 🙂
pugsma said
IWM is leading so far on this bottoming attempt and the key number there to move and close above is 178.19.
pugsma said
And for QQQ it’s 305.07
MS53 said
10/4. Really like the bear market summaries above!!
pugsma said
Here are the 6 times the SP500 fell 6 weeks in a row (since year 2000), which is what will happen this week IF the SP500 closes below 4123 on Friday.
The good news is it’s up 5 of 6 cases up in week 7. The bad news is in 4 of the 6 cases the market was even lower one year later.
And if you look at the SP500 chart, year 2022 does look almost exactly likely July 2008. So a bounce of +5% over 4 weeks and then a absolute crash of -28% over the next 5 months.
https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1524762591926513664?s=21&t=F-w1HITay0HVyQYubHxKZg
pugsma said
NAAIM (active money managers) down to 24% net Long. This hit 10% net long on March 18, 2020 just before the 2192 bottom.
https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1524783340171235329?s=21&t=F-w1HITay0HVyQYubHxKZg
pugsma said
Here is the SP500 price vs NAAIM
https://twitter.com/williedelwiche/status/1524786090284023809?s=21&t=F-w1HITay0HVyQYubHxKZg
pugsma said
From an E-Wave perspective, a major [C] wave of a Bear market is identical to a major [3] wave of a Bull Market.
Now that the major [C] = [A] target of 3933 has been significantly surpassed (3859), we must begin to look at the next Fibonacci extension targets for the end of major [C]-P2.
First up is major [C] = 1.23*[A] = 3771 (38% Fib of P1 = 3821)
Next up is major [C] = 1.38*[A] = 3665
Finally it’s major [C] = 1.62*[A] = 3497 (50% Fib of P1 = 3505)
These will be included on the charts tonight.
pugsma said
Note: 3497 is still another -9.3% Loss from here at 3859. This is why a lot of institutions are still still into cash positions even here at 3859.
pugsma said
Institutions have finally started yesterday and today to dump their best holdings AAPL and MSFT to raise more cash.
This signals the last phases of this current leg down. Problem is now it can go on for a few weeks and we could see 3497 (50% Fib of P1) in June.
pugsma said
The bull soldiers (ARKK, IWM, QQQ etc) are all lying dead in the trenches and the now the bull generals (SP500, AAPL, MSFT, etc) are being shot in the head, execution style.
The bears may have won the battle P2-C3, but not the war Super Cycle V (SC-V) that will run decades into the future. Bulls will be back in full force during P3-C3 of SC-V.
pugsma said
More crazy downside panic selling stats like this one on the NYSE keep popping. They can be early as seen in 2008, but should eventually catch.
https://twitter.com/jasongoepfert/status/1524819161393815557?s=21&t=DeAQekoqlHYVn9G-7caVyw
pugsma said
More panic stats about pulling $’s from stocks and bonds.
https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1524826135091191811?s=21&t=rt3dpyjYrBwjyjz38w0Ltg
pugsma said
More chart data showing the VIX non-Conformation (ie red yesterday) with a SP500 down more than 1%. Key low of significant rebound near, except 2008 case.
https://twitter.com/mark_ungewitter/status/1524804121240412162?s=21&t=rt3dpyjYrBwjyjz38w0Ltg
pugsma said
Here are the 18 Nasdaq Bear Markets with losses more than -20%.
Interestingly the QQQ here down at -30% and 168 days is close to the media of -32% in 126 days.
https://twitter.com/roylmattox/status/1524550562192240641?s=21&t=rt3dpyjYrBwjyjz38w0Ltg
pugsma said
In other breaking news my investment account closed up +0.34% today!
Over the past 5 trading days I’ve gone from 40% long in the markets to over 200% mid-afternoon today. I’m trading the opposite (contrarian) of NAAIM here that’s only +24% long as of today.
I really hope 3777 to 3821 can hold and I don’t have to dump these long positions in SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, and IBB going back to cash.
pugsma said
Big wins for me today in IWM and IBB.
Note that I posted an IBB chart yesterday for 2022 CCA Subscribers.
Hopefully this confluence is IWM and QQQ at their 50% Fibs today along with the SP500 at the 38% Fib can produce at least a multi-week rally of +10%.
pugsma said
I still have cash left to get to 300% long, which I’d likely do on a close above 4049 (4063) or a drop and hold near 3777 to 3821.
AT said
How do you 200% or 300% long
pugsma said
Leveraged ETF’s for the various indices I listed.
pugsma said
There were two small “green shoots” today with the SP500 putting in a lower closing low from yesterday (ie. 3930 today vs 3935 yesterday).
Both the NYMO and NYSE A-D Line Cumulative closed green with the new SP500 closing low. This is small potential +DIV that needs confined on Friday with a continued move high in both indicators.
pugsma said
Just now traded down to 150% Long from 200% Long yesterday near 4859.
I my goal is to trade down to 100% long going into this weekend, unless we see a close above 4049. Then I’ll ramp back up to 200% long. Or below 3771, then I’ll drop to 0% long.
Plan is to trade around this bottoming area of 3821 until we see a break out above 4049 (200% long) or breakdown below 3771 (0% long)
AT said
Pug – can you share what you mean by trading 200% long in an account ? Will be great to learn as a newbie !!
Great call !!
pugsma said
The ETF UPRO is 3X (300%) SPY daily.
The ETF TQQQ is 3X (300%) QQQ daily.
The ETF TNA is 3X (300%) IWM daily.
Thus using these daily bull (long) ETF’s you can go up to 300% long in your account (i.e. $100,000 cash account can trade as $300,000).
But remember these 3X ETF are re-priced daily and will have some small decay over longer time periods. I’ve used them to do swing trades long over a few weeks to a few months with no significant issues. I would say it’s not great to hold them for 6 months to a year plus, as the decay will hurt your profits.
AT said
Thank you – so if you go 60% long these ETF you are 200% long the account – am I thinking of this the right way ?
pugsma said
As and example if you have a $100,000 cash investment account:
Buy $33,333 of UPRO is like owning $100,000 SPY (100% Long the Market SP500)
Buy $66,666 UPRO is $200,000 SPY (200% Long)
Buy $100,000 UPRO is $300,000 SPY (300% Long)
hinge said
Steve On the SP500 daily it seems to me a parallel channel exits between PB to P1 (top) and PC C2 to P2 (bottom) Your thoughts on this ?
pugsma said
Key levels to watch into the close today:
SP500 above 4049 (4022 so far)
QQQ above 305.07 (300.85 so far)
IWM above 178.19 (177.93 so far)
The soldiers (IWM) the generals (SP500), which is bullish!
Don’t want to see any significant fade into the close day (ie need a change of character).
pugsma said
IWM crushed the 178.19 level hitting 179.41
pugsma said
QQQ hit 302.97 vs 305.07 threshold and SP500 hit 4038 vs 4049 threshold.
pugsma said
It takes a single 90% upside day or consecutive 80% upside days to confirm a new sustainable impulse wave higher.
We are 89% upside today, so far…
https://twitter.com/walterdeemer/status/1525122957722386432?s=21&t=8rmQtHqJAKw1SyOlT-7OXw
pugsma said
Breaking my key 4049 level today and closing there should produce the 90% upside day.
pugsma said
92% upside volume on NYSE at noon EST, 3.5 hours until the close.
https://twitter.com/walterdeemer/status/1525148733515743234?s=21&t=8rmQtHqJAKw1SyOlT-7OXw
pugsma said
On the 5-min chart the past 5 trading days there is a text book bullish Inverse Head and Shoulder (IHS) pattern with head at 3859, neckline at 4039. On a break above 4039 (today’s) this ISH has a measured move up to 4039 + (4039-3859) = 4218 (+5% up from here at 4020).
Have a great weekend ! 😎
pugsma said
Here is the SP500 chart showing the bullish potential IHS pattern in my Tweet just now:
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1525199808402804736?s=21&t=0E2_l8jSQuTiQg65cP8UJg
pugsma said
I had a little time today, so I decided to update the charts before leaving for St Louis on Saturday morning.
It’s unfortunate that the SP500 couldn’t break above 4069 today and eliminate the alt (blue) count for a slightly lower low that 3859. It’s low probability (say < 20% ) now, but must remain on the charts.
pugsma said
Wow it was a 92% NYSE upside volume day!
To find out what this implies, read the notes from man who wrote the book on using NYSE multiple 90% down volume days followed by a 90% volume upside day in calling a key market bottoms.
https://twitter.com/walterdeemer/status/1525209269192347651?s=21&t=0E2_l8jSQuTiQg65cP8UJg
pugsma said
The notes say that after the two or more 90% down volume days (we had this on Last Thurs 5/5 and this Monday 5/9) followed by a 90% upside volume day (today 5/13) the key Market bottom will ovule within 5 trading days (by Friday May 20th).
So while there is small chance we could get down to 3821 to 3771 by next Friday (alt blue), there is an extremely high probability of a key market bottom here (ie P2-C3).
hmeda said
Steve, that’s refreshing news given that Cobra is stating 100% chance of a lower low. What is your take? If we breach 4068 is that probably much lower? Thank you in advance.
pugsma said
We’ve seen Cobra’s 100% historical lower low stats be busted several times between March 2020 and Jan 2022. History is broken often in the markets.
The 90% Up volume day after multiple 90% down volume days stat does tend to produce a tradable bottom, but not always “the bottom”.
pugsma said
Short-term if the SP500 can trade above 4069 next we, we can eliminate the alt(blue) for the immediate lower low to 3821 to 3771.
Then we can look to a sustained bull move up to at least 4219 (IHS target) or the 38% Fib at 4224 and possibly as high as the 50% Fib at 4339. Note: this is Primary (green) minor 1 of major [1] Target or Alt(red) major [X] target.
From there things get interesting. The bulls will have a real shot and will need to break above the falling 200-day SMA currently at 4482 to confirm the P2-C3 bottom. But failing to do this will lead to a potential US Recession and this we certainly can’t take the alt(red) count off table that after this bounce, the SP500 is headed down much lower to 3505 to 3200 into the fall.
Best advice is to be nibble until things become clearer later in the summer.
pugsma said
SP500 Chart since 2006 showing 90% Up days after 2 or more 90% down days within 10 seasons:
https://twitter.com/mark_ungewitter/status/1526156114043314176?s=21&t=2aNsFf20Qve8VbUoUnnuCA
mike Soteropoulos said
Can’t leave STL without Sone Imo’s pizza and Ted Drewes frozen custard!
pugsma said
Thanks for the suggestions. I’ll be out in far western burbs of Ballwin, MO.
Unfortunately, I have a dairy allergy so no real cheese pizza or dairy custards or ice cream for me.
pugsma said
Good charts here on this secular bull market (Super Cycle V) the began in March of 2009 ( confirmed in 2013 was when the SP500 broke out to a new all-time high).
As long as the SP500 holds above the 200-week SMA (currently at 3475), the secular bull (ie Super Cycle V) is intact and as I’ve shown on my monthly chats, the target is well above 8000 into the 2030’s.
https://twitter.com/mikezaccardi/status/1525888550067224577?s=21&t=UsBOI100pNowepzYCYuHQg
pugsma said
SP500 Down 6 weeks in a row stats:
Bulls want this to be like years 1970, 1980, 1982, 1984, 1990, 2002 and 2004.
Bears looking for years 1969, 2000 and 2008.
Notice treat 2011 (P2-C1) is another scenario of down 6 straight weeks in a row that was basically neutral with a slight year end bull basis of up +3%
https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1526177663089532930?s=21&t=2aNsFf20Qve8VbUoUnnuCA
pugsma said
Mystery Broker:
https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/status/1526185143538425856?s=21&t=2aNsFf20Qve8VbUoUnnuCA
pugsma said
NYMO trying to poke its nose above the zero line.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print
pugsma said
So far everything below 4039, looks like a bull flag, right shoulder of the bullish IHS.
IHS Looks good as long as it holds at or above 50% at 3849.
MS53 said
These intraday pattern recognition comments are really helpful, especially to me since I am a purely indicator and moving average trader.
pugsma said
And here we go on the fourth test of the 4030 to 4039 IHS neckline resistance.
You know what happens next IF it breaks above it…
patrick kavanagh said
Would be great to eliminate the blue count!
pugsma said
Alt(blue) count remains a low probability above 3849 (50% Fib).
pugsma said
Next 200 points in the SP500 are likely up to 4224+. Then it will get tricky.
pugsma said
Here in the middle of May 2022 you get to buy the the SP500 at a forward P/E of 17, the 25-year long-term average.
https://twitter.com/isabelnet_sa/status/1526158659700543489?s=21&t=2aNsFf20Qve8VbUoUnnuCA
pugsma said
5-16-22 SP500 Summary: Today the SP500 remained in a bull flag consolidation, while forming the right shoulder of the bullish IHS pattern. Breaking and closing above the 4049 to 4039 neckline resistance sets up the move up to 4224. It looks like today’s rise to 4046 might be the b of white minute (2) or (b) of red minor B on the 15-min chart. Could still be a dip to c=1.62a or (c)=1.62(a) at 3950 (50% Fib) tomorrow. Note a mice below the 50% Fib of 3946, opens the door for the alt(blue) to reach 3821 to 3772 later this week into OPEX Friday.
No need to update the charts today. I will post the next update after the close on Tuesday May 17th.
pugsma said
Some green shoots: With the red SP500 close, the VIX closed red, the NYMO closed green and the NYSE A-D Line closed green.
pugsma said
Key levels to break above today to eliminate the alt(blue) count immediate lower low and confront an intermediate more up 5% +
SP500: 4069 (pre-market 4054)
IWM: 180.82 (pre-market 180.32)
QQQ: 305.11 (pre-market 303.40)
pugsma said
Love this tweet on the US Consumer and US Economy. No recession, Aligns with my primary (white/green) wave count.
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1526553481586294786?s=21&t=NRBh5c5xlVJ1qtlgzZ1RsQ
pugsma said
And more no recession data…
https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1526553084834496513?s=21&t=NRBh5c5xlVJ1qtlgzZ1RsQ
mike Soteropoulos said
More importantly shows we are handling the worst inflation since the 70’s well. Perfect bad news scenario to kick of a giant 3.
pugsma said
Falling 13-day EMA at 4081 should provide some resistance today.
NYMO strong and up above +30 intraday-day this morning.
pugsma said
Lots of fund managers cash on the sidelines. Most since 9/11 in year 2021.
Positioned for a market “crash” down. But what happens next IF we go up?
https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1526555167990157313?s=21&t=NRBh5c5xlVJ1qtlgzZ1RsQ
pugsma said
Ideally the SP500 closes above the 4039 to 4049 area which is the IHS neckline.
pugsma said
Looking like a giddy up will be in order today, with a solid close above the 4039 to 4049 IHS neckline!
pugsma said
US Fed Real-time GDP increases Q2-2022 from 1.8% to 2.5%. Range of top 10 and bottom 10 forecast above 4%
When the trend is up in GDP revisions, a recession is not likely.
https://twitter.com/livesquawk/status/1526599368282882048?s=21&t=XBRr9eEaaEF5QaPZjiIPGw
pugsma said
It’s another key bullish indicator that small caps (IWM) continue to lead again today up +3%!
pugsma said
We are only on day 3 of a 10 trading day Zweig Breadth Thrust watch…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21BINYBT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p32123590350&a=427381773&r=1604930894355&cmd=print
pugsma said
We already cleared 4068, so alt(blue ) count is off the charts.
A move above and close above the initial low at 4115 from late Feb, triggers a bear trap, false break down and sets up a rip above 4637 to a measure move of 4637 + (4637 – 3859) = 5413 (major [1]-P3 target.
AT said
Pug – can you explain what pattern this is – the long from Thursday working well 😀
pugsma said
Those that got 200% long last Thursday afternoon with are repealing large rewards.
A close today above 4039 to 4049 triggers a 300% long position for me.
pugsma said
Like if you are long with me from last Thursday. 😎💰💰💰
mike Soteropoulos said
Last Friday
Joe Schmid said
“The S&P 500 just made a 2% gain in two of the past three days coming off of a 52-week low. The last times that happened? March 2009 and March 2020.”
Source: https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1526658769450680321
jrw said
Steve, does this move down today invalidate the IH&S?
pugsma said
Yes the 15-min IHS has been invalidated by today drop below the 4039 to 4049 neckline.
pugsma said
Breaking below 3859 triggers a low down to at least the 38% Fib at 3821 and more likely the 42% retrace at 3717, similar to the year 2011, P2-C1 wave. And there is some risk of a move to the 50% Fib at 3505.
pugsma said
At 1:15 pm It’s running as a 92% downside volume NYSE day, which would wipeout Friday’s 92% upside day and setup for lower lows directly ahead.
pugsma said
Lowest Fib retrace areas for the alt(blue) labels are 78% at 3910 and 88% at 3887. Low so far 3931.
pugsma said
3930 was the closing low on Thursday May12th, so it’s right at that gap fill now. A lower closing low than 3930, would setup up a bunch of potential positive divergences (across all key indicators. However it’s very unlikely to play out with out a breach of 3859 first.
pugsma said
VIX is considerably lower than May 12th and NYMO is significantly higher than May 12th.
pugsma said
And unless there is massive volume surge into the close, today volume is running half of what it was on May 12th on SPY, QQQ, IWM.
pugsma said
Also < 1/4 of the amount new Nasdaq lows today (300) vs last Thursday (1375). Low 1/2 volume and less than 1/4 new lows when testing a index low area are bullish indicators that re-test should hold. https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/status/1526999335204003840?s=21&t=8BoyJI0xoDOawJZfbJr5iA
pugsma said
New SP500 closing low at 3923 on 1/2 volume, +DIV on NYMO and NYSE A-D Line and -DIV on VIX.
Very interesting. Either this new decline is just getting started and 3505 area (50% Fib of P1) is next or this is successful re-test of 3859 area (3821 38% Fib of P1).
pugsma said
No chart update today.
As long as all May 12th lows continue to hold, I’ll assume this move is a deep 78%/88% Fib retrace for minute (2) of minor 1 of the primary (white/green) count or minor B of alt(red) count.
Wayne Curtis said
Hi Steve
Why do you still have the purple count on the charts?
If it’s no longer valid.
Cheers
pugsma said
The new alt(blue) shown on the charts last night is exactly what happened today: a wave (1) of minor 1 or minor A peak at 4091 and a big drop for minute (2) or minor B. I only listed the 50% Fib at 3975 and we reached the 78% at 3910.
pugsma said
There is nothing on the May 17th SP500 charts above calling for a lower low than 3859. That would be a completely different wave count. That will need some detailed thought. There at least two count options that I’ll consider only if 3859 breaks.
Wayne Curtis said
3991 2 (b)….I ignored that and got hurt
pugsma said
It’s shown as minute (2) of minor 1 or minor B.
pugsma said
If you look at late Jan and early March, you will clearly see back-testing a low on much lower volume (like today) can be bullish for higher lows.
Back testing a low on higher volume, like early May is bearish for lower lows ahead.
pugsma said
I’m in the 16% group! It’s good being the contrarian. 🙂
https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1527030753988591616?s=21&t=8BoyJI0xoDOawJZfbJr5iA
pugsma said
I’m kind of disappointed 16% of respondents are on my side. Wish was sub 5%.
stevesumma said
Your thoughts on where the alt blue goes next?
pugsma said
There is no alt(blue) count at the moment. The alt(blue) labels on the chart become the primary (white/green) count for a minute (2) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3 or minor B of major [X]-P2 of alt(red) count. Both at valid above the May 12th low at 3859.
AT said
Thanks Pug so essentially the blue on the chart is now primary count … question is do you still see us bouncing as high for X or does X become a flat due to the deep retrace ?
pugsma said
Mayor [X] of the alt(red) count is retracing the 4819 to 3859 drop. It should last a couple months and likely retrace to 50% Fib (4339).
pugsma said
Yesterday day was a 92% DVol day after Friday’s 92% UVol day.
Since year 2006 this behavior marked key bottoming areas in 2010, 2011 (P1-C1), 2015, 2016, and 2020.
https://twitter.com/mark_ungewitter/status/1527264170047045634?s=21&t=vHLELNp3-4m9Sg-OoBgdoA
pugsma said
The SP500 would need to rally 123 points from 3900 to 4023 to not close down 7 weeks in a row.
Down 7 weeks in a row on the SP500 has only happened twice:
March 1980; was THE bottom
March 2001: Local bottom, but much lower into Oct 2002
https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1527287707264684033?s=21&t=vHLELNp3-4m9Sg-OoBgdoA
pugsma said
This article by Market Watch citing Evercore Strategist is and interesting read:
“Indeed, our call of the day from Evercore strategists says that markets are spiraling on the view that recession is a foregone conclusion. They also say that panicky, leveraged retail investors who have been behind this selloff, should calm down soonish as the pros aren’t running scared (yet).
“On Thursday, we will get an idea whether the market action is part of a volatile bottoming process, our base case, or whether the decline could materially undercut SPX 3,854, triggering a capitulation trade,” notes the Evercore team, led by Julian Emanuel.“
https://twitter.com/marketwatch/status/1527291136263327747?s=21&t=vHLELNp3-4m9Sg-OoBgdoA
pugsma said
Today’s price movement between 3877 and 3946 sure looks like a bear flag. Bear flag target is 3877 – (3877-3946) = 3808.
pugsma said
But we did get a red VIX and green NYMO today with a red SP500.
That same technical setup produced a massive rally last Friday the 13th.
MS53 said
All important NYAD cumulative showing positive divergence wrt SPX since its low close on May 11.
pugsma said
Tom DeMark is with me on the bottom call near here and big rally to 4400.
However, Tom seems to prefer my alt(blue) count with a close below 3859 first.
https://twitter.com/marketwatch/status/1527648585977929728?s=21&t=ncCzzLkUrj9tt7tbPDLI5w
pugsma said
In fact DeMark’s system needs two closes below 3859. So Monday and Tuesday next week if the 15-min bear flag breaks down below 3877.
MS53 said
Is the bear flag target 3947-3877= 69. 3877-69= 3808 ?
pugsma said
That’s the minimum Bear flag target, based on the size of the flag. The maximum is based on size of the flag pole. 4091-3877 = 214 => 3947 -214 = 3733
MS53 said
Thx for the lesson.
pugsma said
And Cobra’s historical stats on the SP500 down 6 weeks (as it was last week) calls for a lower low than 3859.
MS53 said
I recall Denali saying that a strong trend into opex tended to follow through into the early part of the following week before a trend change began to emerge.
pugsma said
Yes key bottoms are usually post OPEX
stevesumma said
Is it more prudent to just wait for a move above 4091 or below 3859?
pugsma said
I’ve already shared my 200% long position since last Thursday afternoon near 3858. I haven’t waivered and wound only consider leaving this position blow the 3771 area.
orion.colorado said
Thanks this update and all the comments above and below today, Steve
pugsma said
If M5=M1 at 3824 and the 38% Fib retrace of P1 at 3821 doesn’t hold, then it’s lower to the 3727 pivot and max bear flag target at 3733 early next week.
Robert Swaim said
Here we are at 3810 with the #CPCE coming down off a peak and daily MACD lower than anytime since the March 2020 low. Not seeing a bottom volume spike yet but everything else is screaming that at least a nice bounce may come soon.
pugsma said
Interestingly the QQQ has not closed below its weekly BB during this entire decline since the 408.71 peak in late Nov. it will today if it closes below 291.
pugsma said
Also the Nasdaq A-D Line cumulative looks like or could close with a significant +DIV today.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NaAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69119237901&a=785666345&listNum=1
orion.colorado said
I have been reviewing IWM and it is holding up pretty well in light of the General tripping and stumbling down today.
LightBearer86 said
ARKK looks interesting too, Steve. The soldiers are marching on.
pugsma said
FYI: If there is going to be a lower low than 3810, this move up must stop below 3946.
pugsma said
But this sure looks like THE Bottom to me. Both NYSE and Nasdaq A-D Line Cumulative have a week long +DIV with the Thursday May 12th SP500 closing low.
pugsma said
And VIX has a week long -DIV.
Both you often see at a key bottom.
pugsma said
I’m making the call, Giddy Up!
pugsma said
With a daily hammer candle to knock out the bears! 😎
pugsma said
There is also the market history stat that says “key bottoms that are made on a Friday are typically durable and long lasting”.
lauter1 said
DJI low today was a beautiful fib hit: https://www.screencast.com/t/psaRC0MAcvMb.
pugsma said
1) Be Greedy when others are Fearful
2) When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to
orion.colorado said
Great 2nd mouse day! Thanks again for all the intraday comments and for the Fri post. Hope grandkid duty has been fun.
pugsma said
I just added the QQQ 60-min and weekly chart updates.
A few points on the QQQ weekly chart:
1) As of the on Friday, May 20th, the weekly RSI was at 22.14. Lower than at any point going all way back to Oct 2008, where the QQQ bottomed 5 months ahead of the SP500 in March 2009.
2) The 200-week EMA is at 277 and QQQ hit 280. The 200-week EMA has contained the QQQ pull-backs from the COVID low in March 2022 all the way back to August 2021 low for P2-C1.
3) At 280 the QQQ is trading at only +18% above the pre-COID peak at 237. Imagine buying the worlds 100 top technology companies at a -30% discount, up just +18% From a 2 year ago peak.
pugsma said
I just added the IWM weekly chart:
1) IWM traded at 168.90 this week, which is -1% below it’s pre-COVID peak of 170.56.
pugsma said
There have been only three, 7-week losing streaks for the SP-500 since year 1950. Last week marked the 4th.
Notes
1) 2 of the previous 3 went on to make it 8 straight losing weeks.
2) 2 of 3 gained over +33% during the next 12 months (target=5188 by May 2023)
3) 1 of 3 was flat over the next 12 month with -14% draw-down over 6 months (target=3355 by Nov 2022)
https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1528445907758460929?s=20&t=NjYrTIVJEKJfuU25Vz-eTw
pugsma said
So basically 2 of 3 (67% primary green) and 1 of 3 (33% alt red).
pugsma said
I mentioned on Friday, that lows that form on a Friday tend be key and long lasting. Last Friday’s low was 3810.
The primary reason is that “gap ups” on a Monday tend to hold and become “break away gaps”
As an example, here are the Key Monday “break away gaps” since the March 23rd, 2020 low at 2192.
Mon 4/6/2020: 2488
Mon 5/18/2020: 2864
Mon 11/2/2020: 3270
Mon 11/9/2020: 3509
Mon 4/5/21: 4019 (this gap was just recently filled in May 2022)
pugsma said
So, not only do the bulls want to see 3810 hold as a key low, but they want the 3901 gap up from Friday to hold.
pugsma said
3901 gap up still holding after the drop to 3909 and run up to 3951.
The 3950 pivot is acting a resistance today.
pugsma said
FYI, this morning I’m working on the TSLA chart update for the 2022 CCA Service members.
I’m curious how many TSLA owners there are here. I bought my Model S, 75D in August 2019. It’s been an awesome commuter car for trips around Chicagoland and short (120 mile) road trips to West Layfayette, Indiana. And now with Gas prices near $5 per gallon, the $10 in electricity it takes to charge up for a 250 mile ride is a great savings vs the $62.50 gas cost for a 20 mpg car for the same 250 mile trip.
Robert Warmington said
Thanks for the update … I’m with you on TSLA
William Waggoner said
Model Y since late 2020. Looking forward to your TSLA update. Thanks.
pugsma said
I really like the looks of the Model Y. I had my name on the original Model Y wait listed but dropped it and opt’ed for the Model S.
I still have my name on the Cyber Trunk, Tri-Motor list. I’m hoping to get called on that by year 2024. 🙏
Jim Guthery said
I have my name on Cyber Truck Tri-Motor as well, I was hoping to get called in 2023
Kenneth K said
maybe in 2 years, just purchased a new car for my daughter so I am broke.
Rob King said
I am an early Tesla Model 3 owner! Love it. I have had a great experience. Considering trading in for a new Model Y.
pugsma said
If you have never been to the Indy 500 find a year to go.
My alma mater Purdue is celebrating a 100 year association with the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. They just put out this cool 1 minute video.
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1528745054013112322?s=21&t=ThZ5yEC9u73hFuxC31ttRQ
Joe Schmid said
Steve, thanks for all of the great work on tracking the possible end of P2-C3! When have a chance, an update on BTC/ETH (or GBTC) in the custom chart archive would be much appreciated.
pugsma said
Everyone should be watching the broad market, NYSE A-D Line Cumulative this week.
Last week it put in a +DIV wrt the SP500 new low.
Now this week it is challenging the high made when the SP500 closed at 4091. Thus, it’s leading the SP500 and if it closes above that level, the. the SP500 will likely follow above 4091.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354
pugsma said
My tweet just now with the chart.
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1528756180834738176?s=21&t=ThZ5yEC9u73hFuxC31ttRQ
pugsma said
Note that the 15-min and 60-min chart down channel top line comes in around 4000 today at the close. This line has held three times (4512 on 4/21, 4308 on 5/5, 4091 on 5/17) since March 29th peak at 4637.
pugsma said
Breaking and closing above this down channel line would be a major trend change indicator.
pugsma said
Interesting also is that the 13-day EMA is at 4010 today and right at the upper channel line.
pugsma said
After my “Giddy Up! market call before the close on Friday at 3901, you can now you the potential “break away gap” at 3901 as the stop loss area for long positions on the SP500. You’re welcome! 🙂
pugsma said
Below 3901, things would get dicey again for lower lows that 3810 in the short-term (wave count not shown, yet).
pugsma said
And those that bought SP500 with my on May 12th, 2012 around the 3858 low (when I stated that I went 200% long) are now in the black again. 3901 is important level for the long positions taken on May 12th and any new ones taken from May 20th.
pugsma said
These weekly “break away gaps” can be very powerful IT to LT trend changes and they should be respected. If it closes, then it’s wrong!
pugsma said
If you bought on my Friday “Giddy Up!” congrats!
If you didn’t, you’ll have to chase or wait for minute (1) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 to peak and minute (2) wave pull-back. No signs of that yet…
pugsma said
The first mice (May 12th buy at 3858 area) and second mice (May 20th 3810 to 3901 area) and locked and loaded!
MS53 said
4091 then before a lower low is eliminated count wise ?
pugsma said
No you see it on my charts ?
pugsma said
I don’t make giddy up call lightly.
I showed my evidence on Friday and even spent time after my trip home from St Louis Friday late afternoon to get the updated charts out.
pugsma said
As long as the 3901 weekly “break away gap hold” I’ll remain confident.
MS53 said
Only remark I see is re closing above 200 day.
pugsma said
That had to do with discerning between primary green vs alt red counts if/when the 200-day SMA is challenged.
Right now we are discussing the move up from 3810 to that area above 4300
orion.colorado said
Thanks for the further insights. I have relayed as much to my troop of 2nd mice.
pugsma said
There are clean 5 waves up from 3810 to 3981. We’ll see if that’s for minute (1) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3.
A 38%/50% Fib pull=back for minute (2) is at 3916/3896. 38% Fib would hold the 3901 weekly gap up.
I’d like to see minute (1) extend higher that 3981 later today into Tuesday to give the weekly gap up some extra cushion for the minute (2) wave.
pugsma said
The absolute shallowest pull-back for minute (2) would be 23% Fib at 3942. Just hit 3946.