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  1. pugsma said

    Wave (4) could become a triangle between 3936 and 3984.

  2. pugsma said

    Also, IWM and QQQ have both already corrected -3.0% and -2.7% from their respective recent highs.

    • Partagas said

      Might the Quad witching that is putting distortion. I am looking for mid 4000s next week. I am not convinced we have seen the short-term high yet.

    • lauter1 said

      QQQ currently showing a possible 3 wave move into 315 on 15 min chart

  3. Denali92 said

    Hi!

    I just checked the data on large down days on the day before option expiry. There have been 37 Thursdays before opex Friday that have been down 1.2% or more. This is 13% of all option expiry periods. There is NO EDGE in the data. There are lots of bottoms, but also quite a lot of early opex week tops. (Like the Sept-20 Opex Wednesday top that resulted in a 6.8% decline in to the fall low.)

    The really severe falls did see bottoms on Opex Day (nov-08 down 8.0% the day before) or the Monday post opex (Aug 2011 down 4.5%), but in these instances, the market had been declining for some time and the SPX was near its lower weekly bollo.

    I could not see anything in the data that showed declines from all time highs or weekly highs that might provide an edge.

    -D

  4. pugsma said

    Now that the primary (white/green) count minor 2 wave lower has been confirmed, the key not to exceed thresholds of 297.45 (QQQ) and 207.21 (IWM) have been added to the daily charts. P1 top is in place IF those levels are breached (ie alternate blue counts).

  5. kurt.ove.ler said

    Thanks

    QQQ: The blue count is that major B did top at 324,20?

    And that Major C is in progress?

  6. MS53 said

    Great counting and charting!! Uber alles to the Primary from the Prophet from Purdue !!

  7. Anthony Pepsoski said

    This would point to the primary GLD forecast, correct?

  8. Bill Shepler said

    Another signal from my dark pool and options positioning based trading system for SPX at the close today. This one has had 55 signals in the past 3 years. 96% win rate 9 trading days forward with an average return of +4.1%. Also 100% have seen a closing draw-up of at least 1% at some point in the next 10 days, with 96% seeing a closing draw-up of at least 2% during the same period. While there were some temporary drawdowns, 67% saw less than -1% closing drawdown and 36% had no closing drawdown.

  9. pugsma said

    3887 was the 38% Fib and (c)=2.0(a) for minor 2.

    Let’s see if it holds or if it needs to test the 50% Fib at 3854 and the 50-day SMA at 3861

  10. pugsma said

    SP500 5-min chart with just lines.

    Price has two down pink channels to break above to prove the minor 2 low is in place.

    First the light pink channel near 3905, then the dark pink channel at 3925 (EOD).

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/PUG-SP-500-5-min-3-19-21-AM.jpg

  11. pugsma said

    updated SP500 15-min chart with wave count options for the bottoming of the minor 2 wave.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/PUG-SP-500-15-min-3-19-21-AM.jpg

  12. pugsma said

    Time to watch some college basketball and forget the markets until Monday.

    Have a great weekend all !

    • orion.colorado said

      Thanks for the update…checking in from Fruita, CO. Hotspot service rocks. Transitioned out here last night to catch last few days of their spring break to do some mtn biking/hiking/etc…

  13. pugsma said

    Three ST positive indicators with a red SP500 close:

    1) NYSE A-D line cumulative close up.

    2) NYMO closed up.

    3) VIX closed down.

  14. pugsma said

    I had not turned on my work computer since Friday mid-day. I just opened it up and saw my SP500 5-min chart from Friday morning and how it ended Friday afternoon (see chart below). Wow, did the SP-500 follow the lines to the penny. The SP500 will need to break above that dark purple upper line (at 3925 at today’s open) in order to get moving higher.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/PUG-SP-500-5-min-3-19-21-EOD.jpg

  15. pugsma said

    TSLA 60-min, daily and weekly charts updated 3-22-21 in the 2021 CCA.

  16. kazoom1618 said

    Thanks!

  17. pugsma said

    Buy the quads witching weakness?

    Thomas Lee and me, what else do you need?

    https://twitter.com/fundstrat/status/1374010493451505671?s=21

  18. pugsma said

    I just posted my initial look at the NCLH chart and updated BA in the 2021 CCA Service.

  19. pugsma said

    The intra-day NYMO is in the tank below -40.

    Until we have a day when the SPY, QQQ, IWM and XLF all rally together signaling a minor 3 wave move up, the SP-500 remains vulnerable to the alternate (blue) count further drop for minor 2 down to 3854/3822.

    Watch the IWM, it just broke the 222.95 low from Friday.

  20. pugsma said

    SP500 5-min chart, just lines. Living on the edge. If that lower line breaks, the SP500 is likely to take a big fall.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/PUG-SP-500-5-min-3-23-21-AM.jpg

  21. William Waggoner said

    $VIX still below 20. Not fearful yet.

  22. pugsma said

    Updated 15-min chart after the drop to 3927.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/PUG-SP-500-15-min-3-23-21-AM.jpg

  23. pugsma said

    I just updated the IBB and SLV daily charts in the 2021 CCA.

  24. Partagas said

    Hi Steve. Maybe it is me and I want to see a diamond in SPX in short-term chart from the 12th to today. The distance will take us to 4050s.

  25. pugsma said

    I just have say what’s going on with the NYMO in the tank near -50 and the VIX continuing to set new recovery lows below 19 at one point today is very unusual dispersive behavior by two of the most important market indicators.

    One of them is right and is telling of big move coming. The problem is which one to believe here.

    • Sagar Patel said

      Could rotation from small caps to Tech/QQQs cause this effect on NYMO…QQQs ready for a big up move?

      • pugsma said

        Healthy markets rise together across all risk assets.

        • bogiedoc said

          agree…but this highly split markert has been the case since the early february top. QQQ weak and RUT strong with the DJIA and then it flips every other day. SPY stuck in the middle. Many high flyer growth stocks have been weak even with this recent rally in Q’s.

          • pugsma said

            Yes and that see-saw behavior is going to stop very soon and all risk asset will rise or fall together. You don’t want to be on the wrong side of that trade when it happens.

          • pugsma said

            The alternate (red) count is very much in play here abs it could happened extremely fast, like the flash crash in May 2010.

    • pugsma said

      Odds favor the NYMO being right (overall market breadth is more important than VIX) and a big drop in the SP500 to 3854 to 3822 is next per alt (blue).

      • pugsma said

        Big problem for the markets overall if the IWM breaks the recent 207.21 low (SP500 3723 equivalent point). IWM would then be a leading indicator of the SP500 P1-C3 top at 3984.

  26. pugsma said

    IWM just hit 217.51 which was it’s alt (blue) minor 2 target of 62% Fib.

    If the IWM doesn’t turn around soon the entire market is at an extreme risk of a melt-down event.

  27. Russell Bailey said

    Good update Steve, with NYMO closing at -49, does it give any clues?

    • pugsma said

      As I indicated in yesterday’s comment section, it’s unusual for the NYMO to be below -40 with the SP500 near a high (3984). It shows horrible underlying market breadth, which is a bearish indicator.

      The NYMO needs to right itself and start closing above the zero line again IF the minor 3 wave up is going to materialize.

  28. pugsma said

    SP-500 price hitting the top of the dark purple down channel now at 3938. Break above 3938, then above 3955 leads to a iii=1.62i target at 4012.

  29. pugsma said

    I have placed an initial look at the FXI (China EFT) charts in the 2021 CCA.

    I have also updated the XLE charts.

  30. pugsma said

    I saw something interesting here on the IWM daily chart. Could be that major [4] is playing out as a flat or expanded flat wave.

    C=A at 211.43 (basically the same as the primary (white/green) minor 1 to 2 start to major [5])

    C=1.62A at 197.09 if the correction needs to continue below 207.21 (alternate (blue) labels).

  31. pugsma said

    Note: I will like be revising the QQQ alt(red) count be a major [4] triangle that is in a minor C of major [4] wave down.

  32. MS53 said

    Blue counts for all 3 indices are coming together around end of month. Gonna be interesting to see how the NYMO figures into it all.

    • pugsma said

      Today the IWM completed a prefect flat wave minor C=A for major [4] today, so this market could turn on a dime at any moment. And VIX shows negative divergence at the close today; potentially good for the indices to move back up.

  33. pugsma said

    $CPCE rose up to 0.57 at the close today.

    That $CPE level led to the big February and March rallies of 256 and 261 points respectively.

    250 points up from 3889 is 4139

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1374873706812477441?s=21

  34. pugsma said

    So far the post-election year seasonality looks spot on for the SP500.

    Seasonality said:
    => early March low: check 3723 major [4]
    => mid March peak: check 3984 minor 1 of major [5]
    => late March higher low: ??? 3853 minor 2 of major [5]
    => massive rally into August: ???

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/PUG-DJIA-30-Seasonality-2-18-21-2.jpg

  35. pugsma said

    The 3915 to 3920 is the a big test area for calling the minor 2 low at 3854.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/PUG-SP500-15-min-3-25-21-PM.jpg

  36. MS53 said

    Thanks so much Steve for all the xlnt charts and your hard work !!!

  37. pugsma said

    $CPCE actually increased at the close to 0.58 from 0.57.

    That’s potentially more fuel (puts to cover) for equities and the SP500.

  38. henry maddux said

    Thursday’s release of the AAII sentiment survey showed 50.9% bulls versus 28.5% bears. That is the highest
    bullish percentage since early January, and not typically what you expect to see at the end of a scary-feeling dip.
    McClellan report.

    • pugsma said

      Using high bullish sentiment as a topping indicator does not typically work out well. Using high Bearish sentiment as a bottoming indicator is typically effective.

  39. Denali92 said

    The SPX / SPY has had its 3 plus % opex drop, so it definitely could be the low for this correction.

    The Thursday post opex is not the normal time for a post correction low – but it is exactly what happened last September with the bottom on Thursday, Sept 24th after the 22 day correction.

    Since last March, there has been no consistent pattern or rhyme or reason to when the generally brief corrections end.
    -There have been one day ones like the Monday post December opex and the last day of November.
    -There was the sharp two day one last May opex….
    -There was the three day one that ended on the last day of January…
    -There was the seven day one last June that ended on the first day of June opex week….
    -There have also been 16 day (Feb 21), 18 day (Oct 20) and 22 day corrections (Sep 20)

    So yesterday could definitely have been the corrective low. I must admit I was thinking the corrective would likely be next week as there has been weakness during the last few days of the month in June, October, November, January and February…. and early month weakness in January and sort of in March… but I have also been guilty of expecting corrections to last longer than they ever have done since last March…

    A low in March and then an April rally is the historically most likely outcome as only 5 times (Yes, just 5!!!) has the April SPX low been lower than the March low since 1998. The last time was in April 2018 and before that April 2014, April 2005, April 2002 and April 2000….

  40. pugsma said

    OT: This is a bit of fundamental analysis. TLT was down from 157 at Jan 1st to 133 last week. That’s a -15.3% drop in long-term bonds in Q1-2021. Meanwhile the SP500 is up from 3757 to 3984 or +6.0%. 60/40 stock/bond funds and many targeted stock/bonds funds are forced to re-balance here before quarter end. That means buying long-tern bonds and selling stocks.

    Also I saw a report that $175B was added to stocks funds and ETF’s the week before last as the SP500 hit 3984 peak. That’s a historical record. Is it more likely that degree of institution stocks buying is going to be reversed Or is it more likely that the recent stock weakness is a re-balancing?

    We should see a more consistent trend in the market resume after the quarter end.

    • Denali92 said

      Every quarter, there does seem to be a lot of talk about re-balancing leading in to the quarter end, but I have never been able to identify a specific day or set of days when you really see what might appear to be these re-balancing flows. In my mind, the market seems much better to absorb them than a lot of the option related gamma flows.

  41. Denali92 said

    Note: Next week is a strange week from a historical standpoint with quarter end, the 1st of the month – which has generally been VERY STRONG since last March with just Jan 4th, 2021 being weak AND then the employment report occurring when the market is closed for Good Friday…. which last happened in 2015 (bottom on the Wednesday before) and 2012 (H1 2012 TOP on Monday before and a minor bottom on the Tuesday after)

    I have no strong views here other than to say that when these corrective periods do end, the market has always made new highs…. The only recent headfake was at the end of February / early March when it took slightly longer for the SPX to make its corrective low.

    Have a good weekend,
    -D

  42. William Waggoner said

    Nice close! It’s been awhile since we’ve seen final hour buying that aggressive.

  43. pugsma said

    Another thing to look at the is the -DIV that developed on the SP500 Daily Chart MACD and RSI in April 2010 and now in late March 2021.

  44. pugsma said

    Also the equivalent +83% Gain at the April 2010 major [3]-P1-C1-SCV peak off the SCIV low of 667 would be at 4009 here in April 2021 for the major [3]-P1-C3-SCV peak of the C2-SCV low of 2192.

  45. pugsma said

    It should be noted that along with the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative that is severely lagging during this SP-500 attempt at a new all-time high, the NYMO at failing to clear the -20 to zero (crash zone) on a move back up from below -40 is very dangerous.

    The internals need to improve rapidly or the SP-500 is more likely to follow the alternate (blue) count path.

    • pugsma said

      The market internals say the alternate (blue) wave count should be the primary wave count. I’ll give the market a few more days to decide. But the SP500 drop could be swift IF internals don’t improve soon.

  46. pugsma said

    IWM Chart is taking on a Head and Shoulders top look with head at 234.53, neckline at 208.03 and target of 181.53 on a break below 208.03.

    Right shoulder is playing out now at the 50%/62% Fib retrace of 221/224 area

  47. pugsma said

    Here is a SP500 15-min chart morning update:

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/PUG-SP500-15-min-3-29-21-AM.jpg

  48. pugsma said

    There are many “red flags” here with the market internals that I have pointed out in the comments and post last Friday and continuing today.

    The rest of this week and into early next week we should get a resolution.

  49. MS53 said

    Thank you. Nobody gets it all like you do.

  50. pugsma said

    Some small improvement in the market internals today with an hour to the close.

    1) NYMO turned up but still below zero at -10.

    2) NYSE A-D Line Cumulative turned up but still only about half-way bank to a new all-time high.

    There is no need to update the SP-500 charts after today’s tight range.

  51. Vamsee Karanam said

    Zoom time? transports leading…
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/GFbe9SZP/

  52. hmeda said

    Smallies on the move again. Up 1.73% for the day. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7be03ch6iu3206c/20210330_134752.jpg?dl=0

    • pugsma said

      It will take a couple days of QQQ and IWM rallying together along with the SP500 to flip the NYMO above +20 and bust the NYSE A-D Line cumulative to a new all-time.

  53. pugsma said

    Early this morning NYMO intra-day ready is poking it’s head above water at +5. Needs to close above zero then multiple closes above +20 to confirm the primary (white/green) wave count minor 3 of major [5]-P1 wave head much higher.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print

  54. pugsma said

    One of my favorite 2021 CCA stocks charts, WBA, continues to perform well and is approaching my upside target set several months ago.

  55. Vamsee Karanam said

    Thats Steve for all the intraday info you provide. Very appreciated!

    My wild guess…. fill the gap, meet the IHS target and drop?
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/HwnfQd17/

    This might align with SPX 4050-4100.
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/YFykq3ap/

  56. kazoom1618 said

    Thanks!

  57. pugsma said

    This $SPX vs $NYMO chart from Cobra tonight is why the -20 to zero line area has the name “crash zone”, IF the NYMO is recovering from a drop below -40 fails to clear zero AND the $SPX is making a new all-time high.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/img_9649.png

    • pugsma said

      $NYMO closed at -5 tonight.

      Moves slightly above zero can happen before the “crash” but the NYMO will quickly fade and fall below zero as the $SpX crash begins.

    • pugsma said

      Be careful being too bullish until this NYMO condition clears with closes above +20.

      If it clears, we should see a nice sustained rally per the primary (white/green) count.

  58. Vamsee Karanam said

    Caution….
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ANeXuJz6/

  59. pugsma said

    Active Money Managers are only 50% invested in equities after being over 100% invested in February. The March volatility shock out a lot of weak hands. This is potential fuel fit the primary (white/green) count headed much higher.

    https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

  60. Vamsee Karanam said

    Only count for bears is the VIX gap close on daily and hourly…
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/HqmzENcn/

  61. Vamsee Karanam said

    Thanks for all the great work you do Steve.
    Happy Easter and have a nice weekend sir!

  62. Denali92 said

    It did not take long for the SPX to make its annual high above its March high. That leaves March 2000 still as the only year that had its annual high in March… since 1948!

    On an “ODD” note, that is only the second time since 1960 that the SPX made a new all time high on the first trading day of April. Normally, there is some backing and filling that occurs at the end of March and in early April (quarter end dynamics) before the market builds up strength to power higher. The only other time was in 1961! Back then, the market continued a bit higher till April 17th and then topped out and spent 3 months pulling back in to July 1961 and before heading to new highs in November 1961.

    Overall, I see no significant historical edges right now.

    With respect to the “recency bias” that I have been tracking, the pattern recently has been end of month / beginning of month weakness, but clearly this did not occur in March. The last month that did not have end of month or beginning of month weakness was September (though that was well below the early September highs)…. while July 2020 / August 2020 is the last month that has seen such end of month / beginning of month strength in to new highs…

    ENJOY the long weekend!

    -D

    • pugsma said

      You don’t have to go all the way back to 1961 to see this type of SP500 behavior. As I’ve been showing for many months, years 2009-2010 and 2020-2021 have been almost identical.

      What happened in the first part of April 2010? A +4% rise to the equivalent of 4134 to complete major [3]-P1-C1. Then a big fall of -17% into June for major [4]-P1-C1 equivalent to 3431. Then a rally into May 2011 to complete P1-C1 at and equivalent of 4660+.

      That remains the alt (blue) count option here, even though the minor 5 of major [3] ending diagonal might get replaced with a classic 5-wave impulse to the bull flag target of 4114.

      https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/PUG-SMA-SP500-Years-2009-2011-to-2020-2022-Comparison-3-28-21-2.jpg

  63. amans19 said

    Thanks for the video. Not sure if it’s just me but the video quality was very low. Usually I see an option to switch to HD but I didn’t get it today.

  64. John said

    You do great work. Thanks.

  65. pugsma said

    Just added a chart up for both BABA and FB in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive Service.

    • Don Patterson said

      thx. steve,,,Happy Easter…..u did watch the ucla gonz.game doesnt get any better..

  66. pugsma said

    IWM and QQQ charts clearly show a minor 1-2, minute (1)-(2) look and the wave minute (3) of minor 3 more much higher into mid-May is likley underway.

  67. pugsma said

    Both the NYMO and NYSE A-D Line Cumulative closed in a position to confirmed the primary (green/white) wave count minor 3 wave up.

    Pull-backs in the SP500 will be muted and the grind higher into the summer is very likely.

  68. kurt.ove.ler said

    Thanks!

  69. pugsma said

    SP500 closes significantly above it’s BB; history shows could be a little more up to 4114 target for ministry (1), then a Minute (2) pull-back to back-test 3984 breakout.

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1379188739688128514?s=21

  70. pugsma said

    Just how far can the SP500 price escape from it’s 50-day SMA.

    Case 1: On June 9th, 2020 the SP500 peaked at 3233 vs a 50-day SMA of 2872 for +11.9% Above.
    Case 2: On Sept 3rd, 2020 the SP500 peaked at 3588 vs a 50-sday SMA of 3305 for a +8.5% Above

    Today the 50-day SMA is at 3897 with the SP500 at 4082 for +4.7% Above

    Case 1: 3897 * 0.119 = 4360
    Case 2: 3897 * 0.085 = 4231

    So when you hear talking heads say this current move can’t go any higher before peaking, then they are clearly wrong.

  71. MS53 said

    The more interesting comparison to me is SPX price% above 200DSMA. Currently about 14.5%. If the primary unfolds in timeframe predicted, price will likely hit 20% above 200D by end of May .I can’t find an instance where that has occurred before.Is that a big concern? Could the ratio slow down the time frame for major 5 to keep price from getting out over its skis ?

  72. pugsma said

    This a detailed chart update and will only update for the SP500, IMW and QQQ for the until Thursday, April 8th.

  73. Rohan Sharma said

    What charting software are you using for these charts? It looks like TOS but don’t think it’s that.

  74. pugsma said

    Check out the IWM daily chart. MACD is just today going bull-cross after re-setting to zero line. IWM like has the most room to run higher to catch-up.

  75. Rohan Sharma said

    Maybe I am not understanding it but the 60min chart here shows minute (2) of minor 3 done at 3944. Whereas on April 5th update the 60 min chart is still in minute (1) and you say “The minute (2) pull-back will likely be shallow at the 38% Fib of 4015.”

  76. pugsma said

    PLTR Chart Updated in 2021 CCA Service.

  77. MS53 said

    Possible (1) (2), i ii start here for minor 3 on IWM ?

    • pugsma said

      I haven’t look at IWM yet today. I’m out at a mass COVID-19 vaccination site in Joliet IL. They are finally opening things up for more vaccinations here in the Chicago area.

      • pugsma said

        Well 3 hours after getting the first Moderna vaccine dose I feel almost as bad as when I had COVID-19 last November. This is really rough.

        No updates tonight. I’ll put an update in the morning before a weekend trip to see my grandkids in St Louis.

        • RAJA ROY said

          Sorry to hear that, Steve. Rest up and hope you feel better soon.

        • William Waggoner said

          Sorry to hear that. Hope you feel better soon. Good move on the vaccine though as it will provide you significantly longer lasting immunity and increased protection against variant strains.

        • WaterRock said

          Unfortunately your reaction is not uncommon. Those that have had covid-19 more often have more severe reactions. Hope it passes soon.

        • Roy McAvoy said

          Good news is that you’re probably building up lots more antibodies than those of us that didn’t have the virus beforehand and/or didn’t have much of a reaction to the shots.

  78. pugsma said

    Interesting Cobra stat tonight: 9 straight SPY daily bull bars (close > open) means 78% (7 of 9) probability of considerable higher in SPY before a correction.

    • pugsma said

      The last time in happened was the 2nd week of August 2020 and the SP500 moved up from 3350 to 3588 (+238 point = +7%). That +7% would take the SP500 from 4080 to 4370) into early May 2021.

  79. pugsma said

    Almost 3 to 1 Bulls to Bears in this weeks AAII Sentiment poll.

    Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
    April 7: 56.9% 22.7% 20.4%
    March 31: 45.8% 31.0% 23.2%
    March 24: 50.9% 28.5% 20.6%
    March 17: 48.9% 27.5% 23.6%
    March 10: 49.4% 27.1% 23.5%
    March 3: 40.3% 34.4% 25.3%
    February 24: 45.9% 30.3% 23.8%
    February 17: 47.1% 27.6% 25.4%
    February 10: 45.5% 28.3% 26.3%
    February 3: 37.4% 27.1% 35.6%
    January 27: 37.7% 24.0% 38.3%
    January 20: 42.5% 23.0% 34.5%
    January 6: 45.2% 23.1% 31.7%
    December 30: 46.1% 27.1% 26.8%
    December 23: 43.6% 34.4% 22.0%
    December 16: 43.4% 30.3% 26.3%
    December 9: 48.1% 25.1% 26.9%
    December 2: 49.1% 28.3% 22.7%
    November 25: 47.3% 25.3% 27.5%
    November 18: 44.4% 29.3% 26.4%
    November 11: 55.8% 19.3% 24.9%

    https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

    • pugsma said

      VIX at 16.95, this morning so downside hedging protection has become very cheap.

      I saw that the $CPC and $CPCE put/call ratios jumped up at the close yesterday. So big money maybe starting to downside hedge with puts here.

  80. pugsma said

    I don’t usually follow the $CPCI (Put/Call index only) but this is interesting….

    https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1380481475775184900?s=21

  81. pugsma said

    $SPX Daily RSI(5) near 90 has ushered in two large corrections since the March 2020 Cycle 2 low. This indicator leans toward alt(blue) count major [3] top soon and then major [4] correction.

    Be careful picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/img_9728.jpg

  82. Denali92 said

    Pre April opex period post

    Right now, there is no edge going in to the April opex period. It seems like the lower Vix has now created that grinding move higher that Pug was predicting.

    With the SPX likely to close at the highs or near the highs for the week, the Cobra stats indicate a higher high next week is very likely.

    The SPX is also likely to close at or above both the upper daily and weekly bollo bands. This indicates a strong market and there is no bearish edge. The last two times the SPY closed above the upper weekly bollo band on the week prior to opex week, the market continued to rally with just a small pullback (Nov 2019) or no pullback at all, but a more significant top later in the month. (Jan 2018)

    • BUT, in January 2021, when the SPX did close above the upper daily bollo band on the Friday before opex week, that high did hold until the post opex rally that started after the SPX traded to the 20 day MA on Opex Friday.

    Per my March opex note, the SPX / SPY has continued to have opex period turns of at least 3% for every opex week since January 2020 with the exception of last August (rally continuation). These 3 plus % turns have both been tops (March 21, February 21, October 20, September 20) and bottoms (January 21, December 21, November 20, June 20, etc…)

    In more than a few opex periods lately, the high of the week has come earlier than normal. Friday is almost twice as likely to be the high of opex week than any other day, but in March and September 2020 it was on opex Wednesday, in February it was on opex Tuesday post holiday, in January it was opex Thursday and in October and November, the high of the week was on Opex Monday. In the last 7 opex periods, only December had an opex Friday high for the week.

    This could mean an early sell off with the SPX then getting oversold and then a bottom and a rally to new highs post opex. (note: The initial pullback does not need to be 3%. There can be a sharp pullback during opex that then produces a bottom and a strong rally – we have seen this scenario quite frequently lately in January 2021, December 2020, November 2020, July 2020, May 2020 and April 2020)
    • I am not predicting this. It is just a possible scenario that would create that 3 plus % opex period turn.

    Last April, there was a sharp sell off from the Thursday before opex in to Opex Monday and then SPX had an even sharper Opex Monday to Opex Friday rally of 5.9%.

    Bottom line:
    • Right now, there is no opex period edge or really any historical edge.
    • The best scenario for having an opex week edge is an early week high followed by a pullback in to a late opex week low or a low post opex, which would then set up for a further rally in to late April. This is actually the scenario that used to occur quite frequently for April opex (2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015), but since then the April opex period has been more mixed.
    • The next Fed meeting is April 27th – 28th and the market does tend to rally in to the Fed meetings.
    • Lastly, it should be noted that April opex has never made a super long lasting top. The only MAJOR reasonably long lasting April tops that have occurred since 1998 was the early month one in 2012 and the late month one in 2010.

    I will be back next week, if and when I spot a potential opex period edge.

    Have a good weekend,

    -D

    • pugsma said

      April 2010 significant top is the key parallel to watch here as it aligns perfectly with the 83% rally off the March 2009 SC-IV low of 667 and the 88% rally of the C2 low of 2192 now. Both rallies are the largest one year rallies in the history of the US stock market.

      • Denali92 said

        It is an analog that does make a lot of sense. The April 2010 top was the Monday before the Fed meeting.

        The month of May has also produced quite a few more substantive tops, including the first trading day of May in 2011 and the post opex high in 2015 – both of those were the highs for the year.

        Enjoy your long weekend!

        -D

        • pugsma said

          I’m happy with my long position gains for 2020 through 2021. Now it’s time to top tick the short position for what could be major [3]-P1 or then end major [5]-P1.

  83. pugsma said

    FYI I just closed all ST (trades), IT (swings) and LT positions (from C2 low at 2192).

    • orion.colorado said

      Thanks for the update.

      Hope you are feeling better. I’ve been scaling out of positions from that timeframe since we crossed 4000.

      Cash is a position, too after all.

      • pugsma said

        Yes feeling better after two days. Hoping the 2nd Moderna dose doesn’t cause as much reaction since I already had Covid and the first dose produced such a strong reaction.

        Time to stay of the major indices for several month for me. I likely also won’t trade much this spring and summer. Happy to to up this year well hind the SP500 as I correctly trade most of the oscillations this winter.

        • pugsma said

          I might even go short any higher high next week on the SP500 and/or long volatility. I’ll just rest on my cash hoard for the weekend and think about it.

    • CornHusker said

      Are you having any second thoughts about closing out all your positions? Thanks.

  84. hmeda said

    Steve, why did major[3] blue gain 100 points? I thought we were almost there at 4145.

  85. Sagar Patel said

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1381713387990654976?s=21

    “162 % Fib extension of Covid Plunge”

  86. pugsma said

    No matter Primary or alt blue, there is 94% probability that year 2021 ends up 18.4% at 4448.

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1381666350591016970?s=21

  87. pugsma said

    The SP500 has been correcting using time, not price each time it has exceeded it’s daily BB. That is extremely bullish behavior.

    • pugsma said

      With this type of behavior, Cobra showed a stat last night that had a 65% (11 of 17) probability of a much, much more up side immediately ahead for a month+ (primary count).

  88. pugsma said

    JETS chart updated in 2021 CCA.

  89. Vamsee Karanam said

    Love the spx 4145. Awesome Steve!

  90. pugsma said

    Notice the significant change in the IWM count that it is still stock the major [4]-P1-C3 triangle having not yet broken out to a new all-time high.

  91. pugsma said

    Early morning VIX futures had a 15 handle now 16.85.

    Protection is very cheap here.

  92. pugsma said

    For the primary (white/green) the next minute (3) of minor 3 target above 4145 is at 4192, where (3) = 2.0(1). Minor 3 target remains at 1.62* minor 1 at 4277.

    Cobra recent stats continue to argue for a melt up for days and weeks to come into mid-May.

  93. pugsma said

    SP500 now up +89% since March 2020 low at 2192, for the greatest 1 year rally in the 150 history of the markets . Greater than the March 2009 to April 2010 +83% rally.

    Amazing to a part of these two historic bull market runs in the 11+ year history of PUG SMA. Both lows were called here with days to a week of the 667 and 2192 lows and a new cyclical bull called both times. Been quite the ride…

  94. pugsma said

    That drop from 141 to 138 might be it the the minute (4) dip in the QQQ or just a-(4) and this is b-(4) and one more dip for c-(4) to 335 for 23% Fib.

  95. charles blood said

    Yes Steve,

    Thank you very much.. Your bullish calls were great support for us individual investors who during Covid needed your analysis to prevent us from selling at the bottom from fear of the unknown. The news was full of how it was end of the world as we knew it.

    Again thanks.

  96. pugsma said

    The SP500 Minute (4) 23% Fib is at 4104 basis minute (3) ending at 4152.

  97. Denali92 said

    Hi!

    I am afraid I still have no opex insights here. I just do not see a useful edge.
    -Per what I wrote last week, the SPX moves above the weekly and daily bollo bands are not bearish.

    -The SPX has been having these 3 plus % moves during the opex period every month since January 2020, except for last August… which was a rally continuation….
    -The SPX has also been having these early opex week highs, so yesterday could be the high for this opex period….. but again, this early opex week high tendency is something that is new and not normally the case.

    On a daily basis, the SPX shares a lot of similarities to last August with the run along / above the upper bollo. (which was then a rally continuation with no opex period turn)
    On a weekly basis, given the push above the upper weekly bollo, the market is stronger than last August.

    To me, there are really four equally likely opex scenarios – with none of them having an edge based on April opex tendencies and the market’s technical position:

    -RALLY continuation like last August

    -Minor opex top of 1.5% or so and then a consolidation till the Fed announcement on April 28th

    -Opex pullback and then a strong surge after an opex period bottom – possibly early next week – like in November and January

    -3% plus percent opex top with Wednesday likely being the high….. Given the drop in the VIX and the way this market is trading, this seems like a possible scenario, but not the most likely one….

    The one bigger picture historical point to be aware of is that in most years, there is a 5 plus % correction that lasts about a month some time during the April to July period.
    -There was none in 2017 or 2014…
    -The correction in 2020 just lasted a week

    Some of these April – July corrections have been a bit shorter (14 days and 7.2% in 1999) and some slightly longer (48 days, but just 4.3% in 2015). I will pull together a post on this next week.

    With these persistent market rallies, they can extend and extend…. though we know at some point they will end and the SPX should then trade down to at least the 20 week MA. The current rally is 167 days long.
    -The one from March to September 2020 lasted 163 days….
    -The two most recent post election ones lasted 277 days (which was extraordinary) post the 2016 election and the 187 day one that lasted from 16-Nov-2012 to 22-May 13th.

    The 2017 persistent rally is the only persistent rally that did not have an April or May top. (2010 was April 26th, 2012 was April 2nd, 2013 was May 22nd, 2019 was May 1st)

    Overall, the market continues to be resilient and super impressive.

    -D

  98. pugsma said

    Extremes:

    https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1382682751053234176?s=21

  99. MS53 said

    IWM daily since early February showing a potential H&S top. Head at 234, neckline at 207/208 and left shoulder higher than right shoulder. Target 234-208=26 ; 208-26=182, where wave C=1.62* wave A of [4].

  100. Donald Petersen said

    On the IWM Chart you show topping out at 338 should this be 238?

  101. pugsma said

    Here another’s view of my years 2009-2011 to 2020-2022 comparison:

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1382723391476658178?s=21

    • pugsma said

      My primary (white/green) wave count says the SP500 will defy the year 2010 scenario and just keep powering upward to 4500 to 4700 for P1-C3 with out a signification correction.

      All the excess Fed and Fiscal stimulus along with the full opening of the economy via vaccination makes this the base case.

  102. pugsma said

    Minute (3) trying for the 2.0(1) extension at 4192.

    • pugsma said

      Primary (white/green) count:

      (3)=2.00(1) is 4192
      (3)=2.23(1) is 4221
      (3)=2.38(2) is 4239
      (3)=2.62(1) is 4269

      Minor 3 = 1.62* minor 1 = 4277.

  103. pugsma said

    No index chart updates tonight. I’ll update things tomorrow morning after the open.

  104. pugsma said

    More extremes…

    https://twitter.com/andrewthrasher/status/1383060977462210563?s=21

  105. pugsma said

    Some key indicators like RSI, MACD and OBV (on balance volume) are saying IWM could be ready to wake up.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/img_9772.jpg

  106. pugsma said

    For the SP500 weekly chart both the RSI and MACD made new highs above their February highs wiping out all weekly chart negative divergences. Bullish…

    • lauter1 said

      And NYAD keeps taking out its high.

      • pugsma said

        IF the small caps (IWM) finish resting (they were 45% above their 200-day in February and now 31%), things could get real interesting.

    • pugsma said

      Also it should be noted that the alt(blue) major [3] = 1.23[1] target at 4246 is conservative.

      More typical major [3] targets are 1.38[1] at 4402 and 1.62[1] at 4652.

      • Jim Guthery said

        Would this interfere/overlap with primary counts

        • pugsma said

          No, the alt (blue) is an entirely deferent P1-C3 wave count that is much more bullish than the primary (white/green).

          The primary count is limited for major [5] to be less than major [3] at 4764, since major [3] is less than major [1]. Wave 3 can never be the shortest wave.

          The alternate (blue) count is unlimited for major [5], since major [3] is greater than major [1].

  107. hmeda said

    Cobra calling a drop as early as Monday because of a daily doji plus volume surge which usually means distribution.

  108. Jim Guthery said

    We will be able to separate the blue from primary on the next downturn?

    • pugsma said

      The Elliott Wave Theory Practitioner always has that challenge near the end of any degree (minute, minor, major, primary) 5-wave impulse.

      In general wave 4’s much more time based and less price based correction to a 23%/38% Fib retrace . A wave 2 pull-back is sharp and typically a deep 50%/62% Fib retrace.

  109. pugsma said

    Since Oct 2020. 6 months of post OPEX week weakness into the end of the month has led to a higher into the middle of the next month.

    Minute (4) down to 4086 pivot then minute (5) up to 4246 to 4277 by both wave counts. Both counts are in sync through mid-May. Then it gets interesting…

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1383857331893542912?s=21

  110. hmeda said

    $VIX Weekly:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/rf18fi83qfsx521/Screenshot_20210418-224300_thinkorswim.jpg?dl=0

    $VIX Daily:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/hv99b245uiv2xcs/Screenshot_20210418-224452_thinkorswim.jpg?dl=0

  111. pugsma said

    I just updated GBTC (BitCoin Proxy) in the 2021 CCA

  112. pugsma said

    Important TSLA Chart Update just added to the 2021 CCA Service.

  113. pugsma said

    For the SP-500 5-waves down from 4191 to 4157. So that’s likely wave a-(4) and now a b-(4) retrace to a 50% Fib at 4174. Then c-(4) down to c=a at 4140 (23% Fib 4135) or c=1.62a at 4119 (38% Fib 4098).

  114. pugsma said

    $SPX +16% above it’s 200-day leads to sideways to slightly down corrections.

    https://twitter.com/kritiguptanews/status/1384149618452090881?s=21

  115. pugsma said

    I’ve been following these Mike Santoli based “Mystery Broker” comments for awhile now. They are usually pretty good at the big pictures view on the US Indices. Seems the “Mystery Broker” has been following my alternate (blue) count and year 2009-2011 comparison.

    https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/status/1384112819386261510?s=21

  116. MS53 said

    Interesting that Mystery Broker has been talking to Dantoli for 10 years. Pugsma now in it’s 12th year.

  117. pugsma said

    Denali talked about two likely scenarios last week post-OPEX April:

    1) rally continuation with only a -1.5% pull-back (4128) – aligns with the primary count

    2) -3% drop (4065) post-OPEX – then a ramp to a top and a bigger pull-back -5 to -10% (3982 to 3771) – aligns with alternate (blue) count.

    • pugsma said

      I would say 75%+ of traders/investors are positioned for a rally continuation based on the bullish sentiment.

      • jrw said

        Are you saying that 75% of traders and investors are expecting the primary? If so, then the alternate count might be the more likely outlook?

        • pugsma said

          That’s just a rough guess based on weekly Sentiment being 3:1 bull:bears two weeks ago.

        • pugsma said

          Keep in mind the current primary count has been in place since last fall and has been nearly perfect in tracking this market from 2966 to 4191 thus far.

  118. pugsma said

    Keep this Cobra stat in mind this week:

    SPY Up 4 weeks in a row the next week has 67% chances to close up and 82% chances to make a higher high.

    67% chance to close above 4185
    82% chance to make a higher than 4192

  119. pugsma said

    I just updated NFLX Charts in the 2021 CCA Service.

  120. pugsma said

    A drop below 4126 would close the gap up from Thurs 4/15 to Frid 4/16.

  121. Robert Swaim said

    Corporate credit (HYG ETF) relates to TLT which you track and tends to be a leading indicator. Basically it is businesses reading their own tea leaves to plan how much they will borrow.
    HYG in relation to bigger markets has started downward, at least in the near term.

  122. pugsma said

    The most popular big picture view right now is a -10% correction, like my Alt (blue) count.

    => CNBC keeps being on taking heads calling for a -10% correction.
    => Twitter is full of -10% correction (or more) predictions.

    The pain trade is likely higher with only small pull-backs like my primary count.

  123. kurt.ove.ler said

    Thanks!

    Anyway, both counts suggest new highs before any larger pullback?

  124. pugsma said

    If you want to know if the minute (4) wave by both counts is in place at 4118, then watch for a leading indicator NYSE A-D line cumulative close at a new high.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

  125. pugsma said

    FYI for the primary (white/green) count the minute (4) of minor 3 dip to 4118 yesterday was the lowest level on the protected path to 4534 P1-C3 top. Minor 4 will only dip to 4180 after minor 3 at 4277.

    • pugsma said

      IF the primary count continues to be correct (as it has for 7 months now), that was your last chance to load the boat.

    • pugsma said

      CNBC paraded out Tony Dwyer to call for a -10 to -15% correction in the exact day (yesterday) that 4118 key low was set on the primary wave count path to at +10% upside move to 4534.

  126. pugsma said

    I see a potential small IHS on SP500 with head at 4118, neckline 4163 abs target at new all-time high at 4208.

    • pugsma said

      And the SP500 IHS broke above the 4163 neckline just like I expected with new all-time highs next up. It’s good to be the king!

  127. TIMOTHY CREEDON III said

    Is the Russell (TNA), NASQAC (TQQQ), SPX (UPRO), or DOW (UDOW) your ‘preferred’ vehicle to “ride” this next leg up?

    • pugsma said

      I’m charting SP500, IWM and QQQ here every day so you can see each of those targets clearly on my charts.

      • pugsma said

        Simple math based on primary (white/green) targets on my charts:

        SP500: 4163 to 4534 => +8.9%
        QQQ: 338 to 362/380 = +7.1%/+12.%
        IWM: 221 to 257 = +16.3%

  128. pugsma said

    Hopefully the next week CNBC can line a few more talking heads calling for a -10% to -15% correction.

  129. pugsma said

    Remember this Cobra stat from last Friday. Could have make you a lot $ buying the 4118 dip yesterday 😎

    Keep this Cobra stat in mind this week: SPY Up 4 weeks in a row the next week has 67% chances to close up and 82% chances to make a higher high. 67% chance to close above 4185 82% chance to make a higher than 4192.

  130. […] Premium Service Sign-Up […]

  131. […] Service uses Elliott Wave Theory, channel analysis, Fibonacci extension/retracement, momentum oscillators and chart […]

  132. pugsma said

    FYI: The SP500 ES futures have pulled back -9 to test the SP500 IHS neckline at 4163.

  133. sk001 said

    Steve a quick question.. how useful is the options max pain in gauging market moves?

    • pugsma said

      There was a time in the early days of my blog 2009-2012 that I attempted to use monthly Max Pain Options data in my TA toolbox. But I could never really see how it helped out, so I stopped using it.

  134. pugsma said

    It’s been a busy morning updating F, DIS, AAPL and AMZN in the 2021 CCA Service.

  135. pugsma said

    IWM Zoom, Zoom ! 🙂

  136. hinge said

    Steve Why do some corrections get labeled ABC and others WXY ?

  137. pugsma said

    We are getting there by Friday’s close: IHS measures to 4208 should do it.

    Remember this Cobra stat from last Friday. Could have made you a lot $ buying the 4118 dip yesterday 😎

    Keep this Cobra stat in mind this week: SPY Up 4 weeks in a row the next week has 67% chances to close up and 82% chances to make a higher high. 67% chance to close above 4185 82% chance to make a higher than 4192.

  138. pugsma said

    IF IWM breaks above 226, then look out above!

  139. pugsma said

    QQQ is just now reach it’s small IHS neckline at 339.5 from it’s head low at 334.0. QQQ IHS Target is 345 area.

  140. pugsma said

    Here is a SNAP Daily chart into Earnings after the bell.
    A free chart for everyone; so take it for what its worth (probably zero lol).

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/PUG-SNAP-daily-4-22-21.jpg

  141. Jim Guthery said

    What do you make of this drop?

    • pugsma said

      Breaking to new lows on SP500 and QQQ simply means the minute (4) wave has not completed and the deeper targets are 4098 and 4063 come back into play.

      • pugsma said

        Those levels on QQQ are 332.74 and 328.28

        • Jim Guthery said

          Thanks, Steve. I will be happy when P3 arrives.

          • pugsma said

            This in its self is an astonishing comment.

            I guess being on the correct side a +90% gain on the SP-500 in a little over year is not enough.

            Prime exhibit of Investor/trader Sentiment is just too high.

          • pugsma said

            The next +100% gain during P3-C3 is going to be harder to trade and take 5+ years. Just look at the years 2011-2016 for the P3-C1 example.

            The markets are not typically as easy as this year has been.

          • Jim Guthery said

            Yeah, I did well out of the gate and then got caught in the small-cap rotation. I just gotta pay more attention. This wave has been giving me personal fits because the indices were masking the small-cap bear market.

          • pugsma said

            IWM (Russell-2000) is up 132% from its March 2020 bottom and up +10% for 2021. Its only off -5% from its peak in March 2021. Small caps are not in a bear market.

            I think what you are referring to is the speculative parts of the market like green energy, ARKK and SPACs. They are in bear market for their early 2021 over valued peaks.

          • pugsma said

            Many of those highly speculative, no profit companies, won’t ever have a “P3” wave up with the broader markets. They will have peaked early this year during a time when investors were throwing money at everything. It was likely a boom and bust cycle from many of them. A few bests of them will survive and grow.

          • pugsma said

            Picking the winners out of that group is not an easy task. Even Kathy Wood’s ARK funds will be chalk full stinkers. It remains to seen IF she can dump the stinkers and invest in the long term winners.

          • Jim Guthery said

            Yes, that is what I am referring to. Plus, I got in on the action late. Started playing the market in August. I have tripled my money thanks to your guidance. You are by far the best EW guy out there.

      • lauter1 said

        Could this be c wave of a triangle for (4), assuming the 4118 low holds?

  142. sk001 said

    Steve

    Thanks so much for your guidance through the custom charts. Subscription costs for the service pay themselves in a few trades! Thanks again for eveything.

  143. pugsma said

    The SP500 is sitting at 4134 with the NYMO at -15.

    Tuesday’s close was 4134 with the NYMO at -28.

    So a SP500 close below 4134 with NYMO above -28 is a potential +DIV

  144. Robert Swaim said

    What are the chances of this going to 4098?

  145. pugsma said

    OT: Some info for those of us looking to escape the coming socialist USA.

    The Bahamas
    Enjoying the benefit of not having to pay income taxes in the Bahamas depends on residency, not on actually obtaining citizenship, making it one of the easier countries in which to access an income tax-free life. There is a minimum residency requirement for permanent residents of at least 90 days in order to qualify for the tax break, and expatriates may not stay in another country for more than 183 days.

    As Caribbean islands go, the Bahamas is one of the relatively less-expensive ones in which to live. Overall, the country has good infrastructure and services. The one area where services are considered a bit below par is the area of medicine. Many U.S. expats who have chosen to make the Bahamas home still travel back to the U.S. for significant medical care.

  146. pugsma said

    FYI the 4063 and 328.28 lower minute (4) targets on SP500 and IWM would complete small head and shoulders patterns.

  147. kazoom1618 said

    It looks like we missed that +DIV on NYMO vs SPX, as SPX closed higher by 0.04 !

  148. pugsma said

    OT: Biden is missing a great opportunity here. He should listen to AOC and Warren and raise LT Capital Gains tax to 99% on the wealthiest 1%. Give the money to other 99%, so they can live care free. This is the way…

  149. pugsma said

    SP500 daily MACD went bear cross at the close today.

    Cobra says big red SPY outside day bar with volume surge is bearish.

    Might have some chances to hit that 4063 target or test the 4020 to 4034 gap.

  150. kurt.ove.ler said

    Thanks!

    Short term downside seems limited right now both in the Primary and blue count, right?

    If I read the two counts right, SPX should not much lower than 4000 points short term?

    • pugsma said

      Alt (blue) count is calling for a major [4] correction that could be a deep as the 38% Fib at 3725 basis major top at 4191 to 4246. That’s a -11% correction that many think is coming this summer.

      • pugsma said

        Point being is the the alt(blue) count has at most 1% more upside from 4191 to 4246 and a -11% down side risk to 3725.

        So IF you believe in the year 2009-2011 correlation and what most strategists and technical analysts think is a -10% summer correction, then the alternate (blue) count should be your guide.

        • pugsma said

          The AAII Weekly Sentiment data came it at 53% Bulls and 20% Bears this week.

          The NAAIM weekly exposure index has been 96% positioned long the past two week.

          So very few are positioned for a -10% correction at this time. That means that IF a correction begins it will likely be much deeper than most expect as too many will be off sides.

  151. pugsma said

    With Bitcoin (BTC) big sell-off this past week, I expect we will start to see some chatter about this being a SP500 topping indicator. Tom McClellan posted a chart in March 2021 showing that BTC tends to lead the SP500 selloffs by 5 trading days.

    https://twitter.com/mcclellanosc/status/1367868657045413890?s=21

  152. pugsma said

    If the Head and Shoulders (double top at 4191 and 4180) with neckline at at 4118 is going to play out to the down side target of 4045, then they should sell a rise to 4152 area today.

  153. pugsma said

    Here is another free chart, this time for COIN that is purely speculative since there is now enough chart history to make a valid technical analysis work-up.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/PUG-COIN-15-min-4-23-21.jpg

  154. pugsma said

    At 4170 at 11am EST, the SP500 has real shot so satisfy this weekly Cobra stat from last Friday.

    “Keep this Cobra stat in mind this week: SPY Up 4 weeks in a row the next week has 67% chances to close up and 82% chances to make a higher high. 67% chance to close above 4185 and 82% chance to make a higher than 4192.”

    • pugsma said

      Almost like clockwork, there has been a last hour Friday afternoon ramp for back many weeks.

    • TIMOTHY CREEDON III said

      Does Cobra have a stat IF/When this week’s stat is fullfilled? In other words, is there a high probability for next week to also be positive?

      • pugsma said

        He’ll likely post something like that AFTER this week closes. Must close above 4185 to have a 5th consecutive positive week.

  155. pugsma said

    SP500 will likely close today near 4200 and gap up to the iii-(5) target (shown on 15-min chart above ) at 4224 next Monday.

    No need post a Friday update. Fresh new all-time highs next week looks likely.

    Have a great weekend !

    • pugsma said

      My big picture SP500 targets at 4242 to 4246 shown on the 60-min chart are going up to set some key indicator (RSI and MCAD) -DIV on the SP500 daily chart. So enjoy the last 1% before a bigger correction for minor 4 (primary) or major [4] (alt blue).

    • Denali92 said

      This is consistent with no significant tops in April…. with the exception of that one in 2010 – on the Monday before the Fed meeting.

      If there is going to be a pullback of more than few days, next week’s Fed meeting and AAPL earnings have been catalysts for pullbacks, as have the first few trading days of May.

      Interestingly, for the month of May, the high or low for the month is made just under 50% of the time during the first four trading days of the month. Last year, it was a pullback low, in 2019 it was a high and in 2018 it was a low…. something to keep in mind for the week after next.

      The last day of the week has been AMAZING during the last 5 weeks – super impressive.

      Have a good weekend!

      -D

  156. pugsma said

    No 5th up week! But a new, weekly higher high at 4194 vs 4192 (satisfying the 82% probable cobra stat).

    Next week stats weren’t all that impressive if this 5th week close up:

    From Cobra About the next Monday.

    1. Up 1 day, the next day has 53% chances to close up.
    2. Up 5 weeks in a row, the next week has 44% chances to close up, 71 chances to make a higher high.
    3. Down 1 week, the next week has 60% chances to close up.
    4. Monday has been mixed recently.

  157. pugsma said

    All the major averages (SPY, DIA and QQQ), expect for IWM (up slightly) closed down slightly this week.

    If you have more money in your account at the end of this week (like I do) pat yourself on the back as a solid chop trader. 🙂

    I’m flat going into next week. I’ll keep day trading these markets, as I honestly believe the alt (blue) count still has some decent probability here.

    Also there is the possibility of an alt(red) count with a P1-C3 top at 4194 to 4242, since there are now 5 distinct waves up from the major [4] low at 3723. I’ll add that to charts next week.

  158. pugsma said

    Cobra calling it a weekly SPY DOJI on volume surge means distribution this past week.

    Could mean bigger down side ahead.

    Cobra’s call of a daily SPY DOJI on volume surge last Friday led to a couple “days” Monday/Tuesday sell-off.

    Weekly SPY DOJI should lead to multiple weeks of selling. We shall see…

    • Jim Guthery said

      Can you do a% of probability for alt blue. I did manage to pull off a green week this week. Thanks in part to a green energy pop.

      • pugsma said

        I don’t give probabilities other than to say the primary is at least slightly favorable over either the other two alts.

        But since will be two alts (blue) and (red) calling for a major to primary degree top here at 4194 to 4246, it’s more likely a key top is near.

  159. pugsma said

    The SP500 at 4180 is up from 3757 or 11.2% year to date.

    I just ran the numbers on my investing and trading accounts for 2021.

    Investing account is up +15.1%

    Trading account is up +48.2%.

    I can sit it out in cash for awhile and see how this market handles the sell in May to pay Federal income taxes and protect gains sentiment.

    I think there will be great trading set-up develop by June.

    • pugsma said

      Oops I divided the trading account gains by the end value today not the beginning value on Jan 1st. It’s up +93.3% 😎

    • pugsma said

      My goal I’m end investing account is to beat the SP500 performance annually.

      My goal in the trading account is to double my money annually. But it’s net value only 10% value wrt to my investing account. Trading Gains are used to pay ordinary things likes expenses, vacations, taxes etc. So I keep pruning it back to remain at roughly 10% of the investing account.

    • pugsma said

      And to be clear in my investing account I do index level trading (based in my wave counts) with SPY, QQQ and IWM around core positions in order to attempt to beat the overall index gains.

      In the trading account I trade the 2021 Custom Chart Archive charts. I rarely trade the indices in my trading account.

    • pugsma said

      I also use options occasionally in my trading account and NEVER use options in my investing account.

      Just some insight in how I keep my TA and keep risk manage under control in investing versus trading.

  160. droc14 said

    I hope this shows up with this link. If not im sure someone can repost. All time cumulative high on the NYAD

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

    • pugsma said

      While new NYSE A-D Cumulative highs are nice at a new high, they are not a great topping indicator. The biggest tops of the last 3 years in 2018, 2019, and 2020 all came with a new NYSE A-D cumulative high.

      I’d look more at your daily NYMO, RSI and MACD -DIV that is developing.

      • droc14 said

        Thanks for the note. Sorry i should have been clear…it was more of a bullish post. And the link doesn’t work unfortunately.

        • pugsma said

          The best use of the NYSE A-D Line cumulative in trading the SP500 is when it breaks out to a new high well ahead of the SP500. The SP500 will almost 100% follow.

  161. pugsma said

    I don’t often promote other technical analysts, however this video is so important it is required viewing by everyone here at PUG SMA.

    In this video Mr Ciovacoo shows why the present day in April 21, 2021 is tied technically to the market extremes of April 2010 (I’ve been showing this since January) and August 1983. At no other time in market history, except those two cases and now, has the market hit these extremes across a wide variety of key indicators.

    What happened next? At most a 2 to 3% gain (4300 Max), then a -15% drop (to 3655 basis 4300) in both cases. The Nasdaq drop was -23%.

    What then followed those drops was the condition of a massive 5+ year secular bull market

    The April 2010 case agrees with my alternate (blue) wave count of major [3]-P1-C3 topping at 4194 to 4242 and a major [4] pull-back to the 38% Fib at 3725.

    The August 1983 case agrees with my new alternate (red) of P1-C3 topping between 4194 and 4242 and a P2-C3 pull baba to the 38% Fib at 3433.

    Could this time be different and with all the extra Fed liquidity and fiscal stimulus and the SP500 will squeeze even higher to 4444 to 4535 fir the P1-C3 top per my my primary (white/green) count? Absolutely. Just be aware a give back phase is likely near.

    https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital/status/1385750791856836611?s=21

    • pugsma said

      So in summary the other two times in history that the market internals and extremes look like today were August 1983 and April 2010, both had very little upside left (+2-3%) and then led to -15% corrections for the SP-500.

      So If the market were to follow the existing Primary (white/green) count to 4535 (+8.5%) it would be something new and likely lead to an even bigger correction.

    • pugsma said

      I actually like the year 1983 scenario best with a P1 top hear at 4194 to 4242 and the P2 correction to a 38% Fib of 3433.

  162. pugsma said

    To believe in the SP-500 Primary (white/green) wave count you must believe in “this time is different” and the SP-500 will continue to ramp +10% higher than in years 2010 or 1983, because of all the excess Federal Reserve liquidity and Fiscally stimulus.

  163. pugsma said

    I really like the blue (year 2010) and red (year 1983) counts. But until 4118 is broken below, the move higher has legs.

  164. pugsma said

    I’m posting this again in case some might have missed it over the weekend. It’s important that everyone watch this video.

    I don’t often promote other technical analysts, however this video is so important it is required viewing by everyone here at PUG SMA. In this video Mr Ciovacoo shows why the present day in April 21, 2021 is tied technically to the market extremes of April 2010 (I’ve been showing this since January) and August 1983. At no other time in market history, except those two cases and now, has the market hit these extremes across a wide variety of key indicators. What happened next? At most a 2 to 3% gain (4300 Max), then a -15% drop (to 3655 basis 4300) in both cases. The Nasdaq drop was -23%. What then followed those drops was the condition of a massive 5+ year secular bull market The April 2010 case agrees with my alternate (blue) wave count of major [3]-P1-C3 topping at 4194 to 4242 and a major [4] pull-back to the 38% Fib at 3725. The August 1983 case agrees with my new alternate (red) of P1-C3 topping between 4194 and 4242 and a P2-C3 pull baba to the 38% Fib at 3433. Could this time be different and with all the extra Fed liquidity and fiscal stimulus and the SP500 will squeeze even higher to 4444 to 4535 fir the P1-C3 top per my my primary (white/green) count? Absolutely. Just be aware a give back phase is likely near. https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital/status/1385750791856836611?s=21

  165. pugsma said

    The VIX has been rising since the initial 4191 high last week. The VIX is forming a +DIV wrt the rising SP500 to 4194. This is negative for the SP500 and a potential sign of a topping area.

  166. pugsma said

    Let’s take a poll see which wave count the subscribers think will win out:

    https://linkto.run/p/MBDQNKDM

  167. Don Patterson said

    100% red

  168. pugsma said

    Until the QQQ breaks above 342.28 we can not have a proper 5-waves up to form a potential top.

    SPY, DIA and IWM have already met this requirement although for IWM it was a new 3-wave high requirement.

  169. Don Patterson said

    what do u think about a quick 50 point pullback to scare all the children and then ramp back up to new highs ??

  170. pugsma said

    The above poll showed that 83% of some of most bullish subscribers on planet (PUG SMA) are bearish in the intermediate term.

    • LightBearer86 said

      Green and Red almost equal now, contrarian trade in trouble 😉

      • pugsma said

        Doesn’t work that way. Both the blue and red are intermediate bearish, and they are still at nearly 80% of votes. The contrarian trade is clearly up via green count.

  171. pugsma said

    $TSLA looks interesting heading into earnings tonight.

    https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1386767622495252482?s=21

  172. Denali92 said

    There are many things that are super impressive about this market. The one that I have not commented on recently is that the market continues to also follow the persistent path that was seen in the post election years of 2013 and 2017.

    The 2012 post election rally paused for a proper pullback on 22-May-13 (post opex) after 187 days and a 25.5% rally.
    -The pullback was 33 days and 8%

    The 2016 post election rally lasted by far the longest – it was super PERSISTENT and the pullback to the 20 week MA was brief. The rally lasted 277 days until 8-Aug-17 and carried the market 19.5% higher.
    -The pullback lasted just 13 days and was less than 3%, but it did carry the market back to the 20 week MA as the market’s momentum had stalled in June and July.

    This 2020 post election rally is the strongest of all with a 29.6% rally. It has lasted 178 days so far…..
    -So it has 100 days before it exceeds the post 2016 election rally….

    This week and next week will be important tests for the market given the 2010 analog that Pug has highlighted and also the challenges of the early May tops in 2011, 2012 and 2019.

    Whenever this persistent market does have its pause / pullback to the 20 week MA or lower, the important thing to remember is that after that pause / pullback, it is likely the next persistent rally will begin and it is one you will not want to miss. I must admit I have no strong view of whether that pause / pullback will begin in the next month (eg following 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019…) or whether it will continue on till some time in to Q3 like in 2017.

    -D

    • Jim Guthery said

      Hopefully, it follows the Democratic path. The 2017 path was republican without the same headwinds. I would rather take the medicine now.

  173. pugsma said

    Mike Wilson is on CNBC calling for a middle-cycle -10-20% correction.

    Seems everyone has this same call.

    Only the PUG SMA primary (green) count 4534 summer target and Tom Lee call for 4440 by June go against this growing consensus.

    • Jim Guthery said

      Ugh!

    • pugsma said

      It’s EXTREMELY hard to get a correction when all strategists and analyst are calling for a correction. Pain trade is up!

      • Denali92 said

        Completely agree with you on this point.

        Unless there is an unexpected catalyst, the pullbacks will be shallow unless possibly the dollar gets very strong and rates go higher – these have been two tailwinds for the market in April.

        -D

  174. pugsma said

    AMD initial chart added to 2021 CCA. AMD earnings tonight after the close.

  175. pugsma said

    NIO initial daily chart added to 2021 CCA. NIO earnings on Thursday.

  176. pugsma said

    Called it:

    https://twitter.com/mcclellanosc/status/1387061971921510403?s=21

  177. pugsma said

    PINS initial daily chart added to the 2021 CCA. PINS reports after the close today.

  178. pugsma said

    Very interesting chart showing the average return on the day prior, day of and day after the FOMC announcement.

    Shows flat the day before, a ramp into the announcement, and flat the day after….

    https://twitter.com/dailyedgegroup/status/1387383682059563008?s=21

  179. pugsma said

    QCOM Initial Daily and Weekly Charts added to CCA 2021. QCOM Earning tonight after the close.

    • sk001 said

      very strange phenomenon last few days .. big stocks are selling off despite good results!

    • pugsma said

      QCOM earnings after the close were $1.90. QCOM P/E before the earnings was 23.

      Thus the fundamental analysis based QCOM price target rises to $1.90 x 4 x 23 = $175

      The PUG SMA technical analysis based primary (green) wave count for QCOM before earnings $177

      Giddy Up QCOM !!!

  180. pugsma said

    AAPL and FB charts updated today in the 2021 CCA just ahead of earnings for both tonight.

    • pugsma said

      Just updated AMZN charts too. AMZN reports Thursday after the close.

    • pugsma said

      FB earnings after the close were $3.30. FB P/E before the earnings was 30.

      Thus the fundamental analysis based FB price target rises to $3.30 x 4 x 30 = $396

      The PUG SMA technical analysis based primary (green) wave count for FB before earnings $365.

      Giddy Up FB !!!

    • pugsma said

      AAPL earnings after the close were $1.40. AAPL P/E before the earnings was 36.

      Thus the fundamental analysis based AAPL price target rises to $1.40 x 4 x 36 = $201

      The PUG SMA technical analysis based primary (green) wave count for AAPL before earnings $163

      Giddy Up AAPL !!!

  181. pugsma said

    Look at this 4-year Presidential Cycle, Post-Election Year Seasonality.

    The end of April is small dip, but May to June is “Face Ripper Rally” higher, See the PUG SMA Primary (Green) Wave Count.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/DJIA-Post-Election-Seasonality-4-28-21.jpg

  182. pugsma said

    IF the SP-500 can close above the top of the 4118 to 4191 rectangle, then it would trigger the rectangle target of 4191 + (4191-4118) = 4264.

    My minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4277.

  183. pugsma said

    The SP500 closed flat at the all-time high for two consecutive days, no need to update the charts tonight.

  184. pugsma said

    Just like the primary (green) wave count says, it’s not been a good idea to “sell in May”.

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1387541643218366464?s=21

  185. pugsma said

    Traders looking for a -10 to -15% correction…No Soup For You!

  186. pugsma said

    Not a single subscriber pointed out the fact that all three counts pointed to a target on the SP500 at 4242 to 4246. SP500 is going to open up +27 near 4210.

    When all counts converge on a single target it’s a new 100% certainty.

    Today is going to be a good day for my accounts. Along with day trade loading SPY, DIA, QQQ and IWM, I used call options on AAPL, FB and QCOM per my bullish charts published in the 2021 CCA BEFORE the earnings reports. $ 🙂

  187. pugsma said

    It’s very possible that the consolidation between 4197 and 4176 was an ascending triangle for iv-(5) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3.

    Thus, the burst up to 4219 completed wave v-(5) of minor 3.

    A break of below 4176, would confirm this and call the minor 3 top at 4219.

  188. pugsma said

    Note the -DIV on the MACD and RSI across all time frames from 60-min, 4-hr and daily.

    • sk001 said

      you are spot on Steve.. markets correcting today. Not good for people like me selling out of money-covered calls! Market maker is going to make money anyway – just when you thing you have it all covered!

      • sk001 said

        Update – I got out with only with a few bruises! Steve again I cant thank you enought for your insights – just knowing what to expect puts you in a great place while trading!

  189. pugsma said

    NAAIM Active Investment Manager Exposure hit 103% Today.

    https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

  190. MS53 said

    If you look at the ” SPX vs NYMO and Vix” chart in the left column of this page and review the time frame from Jan to Aug in 2010, when [4] of the previous P1 occurred, it shows a nice SPX rally of 15 % up to the late April high, Vix riding comfortably well below 20, and the NYMO putting up negatively divergences. I try to never let ” scenarios” get in the way of the reality of the charts in front of me, but I do like the blue. Why ? it makes me more money…lol, but also satisfies the cycle duration aspect versus previous cycle, it also makes [3] greater than [1]. But anyway, forge ahead and it will be interesting to see how this turns out !!

  191. pugsma said

    The SP500 went right down to the critical level (4176) it had to break to confirm the top at 4219 and it held at 4177. Now closing above 4191 sets up a continued move up to the rectangle target of 4264 = 4191 + (4191-4118).

    Viva Los Toros!

  192. pugsma said

    Booyah ! AMZN right up to my primary (green) count charts target of 3730. $$$

  193. pugsma said

    The lesson of 2021: QQQ >> ARKK

  194. pugsma said

    I just updated the TSLA 60-min chart in the 2021 CCA.

  195. pugsma said

    I just want to point out that IF you believe in the 4-year Presidential Cycle Chart Seasonality Chart, the primary (white/green) count is still in the middle of the minor 3 of major [5] and thus the higher minor 3 target at 3277, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1, is on tap for early May, not a minor 4 wave pull back to 4135/4080 as I have shown on my charts.

    I don’t base my wave counts on seasonality charts, but I wanted to point this discrepancy out.

    Have a great weekend.

  196. pugsma said

    Looks like Investors are “all-in” based on the extremely low levels of money market funds vs $SPx.

    https://twitter.com/tommythornton/status/1388192413794115595?s=21

  197. pugsma said

    “Sell In May” except post election years when May is very strong for SP500 gains.

    Same idea as my seasonality chart above.

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1388196741036511234?s=21

  198. MS53 said

    Muchas gracias jefe. Viva PUGSMA !!

  199. pugsma said

    If you like bullish very short-term stats here is one for you.

    On Thursday the $NYSE closed up 5 days in a row with the $SPX close at 4211.

    Over the last 5 years this condition has led to the $SPX closing on average 0.9% higher than 4211, which is 4249, 31 of 33 times (94% probability).

    So higher targets for minor 3 at minor 3 =1.62*minor 1 = 4277 are still in play next week.

    4249 is a +1.6% gain from Friday’s 4181 close by next Thursday, May 6th.

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1387883382391164929?s=21

  200. pugsma said

    FYI it looks like the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative made a new all-time closing high today with the SP500 closing lower at 4192 vs 4212 on Thursday, April 29th. That is +DIV and likely means the SP-500 is about to resume moving above the 4212 closing high and above the intra-day high of 4219. This could mean that the 4175 low is it for minor 4 (primary (white/green).

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

    The QQQ is close to its minimum 23% Fib retrace of 334.66 for minor 4 (primary (white/green).

    The IWM is close to its minimum 50% Fib retrace of 223.10 for minor 2 (primary (white/green).

    • pugsma said

      However even with this potentially bullish NYSE A-D line +DIV, it’s still possible that there will one more quick intra-day drop to Sp500 4135 first to complete minor 4, as shown.

    • Jim Guthery said

      Wouldn’t that be awful shallow of a retrace for a minor 4?

      • pugsma said

        As I stated, the QQQ has almost done enough for a typical minor 4 at 23% Fib and IWM has almost done enough for a typical minor 2 at at 50% Fib.

        The SP500 (and DIA) has consistently been stronger than either QQQ or IWM since the major [4] low in March.

        • Jim Guthery said

          Excellent call from the weekend, Steve. Took an extra day but looks like it arrived!

  201. kazoom1618 said

    May the 4th be with you!

  202. pugsma said

    The level to watch in QQQ is 324.20.

    That’s were the wave minor 4 would overlap minor 1 in the QQQ primary (white/green) count as labeled.

    The equivalent on the SP500 is the minor 1 high at 3984.

    Thus, QQQ might give an early warning sign (below 324.20) that this is major [4; wave per the alternate (blue) count.

  203. pugsma said

    The 2nd mouse is waiting.

  204. pugsma said

    QQQ and IWM charts updated with key thresholds between primary (white/green) and alternate (blue) counts labeled on 60-min charts.

    QQQ key threshold is at 324.20 (Today’s low 326.21).

    IWM key threshold is at 215.24 (Today’s low 220.96).

  205. pugsma said

    OT: Any subscribers mining BTC or ETH? I just upgraded my crypto mining rig to the NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 GPU and the mining rates are so good. Been working hard on VRAM heat sinking to keep those chips below 100C.

    It was very hard to source the 3090 GPU. But I finally got a good deal.

    • fintechworklab said

      Yes. Open or closed rig? Need good airflow. I have a bunch of 1080tis and 2070s and they are all profitable. I typically run low power (59-70%) and overclock a bit. Way more efficient. Using Afterburner to tweak.

      • fintechworklab said

        Here are my settings:

        Power limit: 60%
        Temp limit: 66%
        Core Clock: +125
        Mem Clock: +400

        This is for a 2070 Super. Different settings work best for different algos, miners and gpu makes. You’ll likely have to tweak and experiment a bit to find what gives best hash/kwh.

      • pugsma said

        Normally closed, but open mining rig right now as I’m experimenting with the heat sinks on the 3090 graphics board.

        I’m using MSI Afterburnner to slightly under-clocking the memory and running 85% power to hold down the VRAM temps below 100C.

        It good to hear that you are making profit on a 1080ti.

        • fintechworklab said

          During the 2018-2019 bear it was very unprofitable, all of them. That said, the bear is a great time to mine and to pick up cheap gear if not looking to dump for USD.

    • Teck Ng said

      Sir a good time to incorporate regular BTC wave counts? 🙂

  206. droc14 said

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&w=990&w=990&w=990&cmd=print

    Close below SPX 4181.17 and NYAD above -10.08 would produce a + divergence of NYAD and SPX.

  207. pugsma said

    I will point out that if you look at the 60-min chart, the primary (white/green) count minor 4 wave could have started since the peak at 4191 on April 16th. It’s basically be a flat wave minor 4 from April 16 to May 4th. Wave minute (a) from 4191 to 4118, wave minute (b) from 4118 to 4219, and now (c) from 4219 to 4129. This type of minor 4 flat wave would “alternate” nicely with the minor 2 wave zig-zag in March.

    This doesn’t really change any of the primary (white/green) count outcome that a minor 5 wave up to new all-time highs is next, but is more elegant in it’s wave configuration.

    • Anunay Jain said

      Looks like one more wave down is needed to make it a 3-3-5 structure that may or may not undercut today’s lows depending on if it unfolds as expanded flat or running flat.

  208. pugsma said

    Don’t forget about this bullish short-term stat trigger on Thursday, April 29th:

    If you like bullish very short-term stats here is one for you. On Thursday the $NYSE closed up 5 days in a row with the $SPX close at 4211. Over the last 5 years this condition has led to the $SPX closing on average 0.9% higher than 4211, which is 4249, 31 of 33 times (94% probability). 4249 is a +2.0 gain from Tuesday’s 4164 close by Thursday, May 6th.

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1387883382391164929?s=21

  209. Bill Shepler said

    On of my systems fired off a signal at yesterday’s close that is 18 for 18 of seeing a close at least +0.7% higher within the next 5 TD. That would correspond to a close at or above 4222 SPX sometime between now and next Monday 5/10.

  210. Robert Swaim said

    Steve –
    A couple of weeks ago you had some interest in Bahamas or other low tax countries for residents. I was speaking to a planner who has a number of international clients and he steered me to a website serving such folks, and here is a link to an article about why trying to escape US taxes is so hard:

    https://nomadcapitalist.com/2019/05/02/fatca-ultimate-guide/

    This may help others here and there are more good links under the FREE INFO tab.

    Bob

  211. pugsma said

    OT: Received the 2nd shot of Moderna C-19 vaccine today. Hoping not to get as sick this go around.

  212. pugsma said

    Remember IF price does not impulse to a new all-time high above 4219 quickly, then the SP500 could form a Minor 4 triangle between 4129 and 4219.

  213. pugsma said

    2nd Mouse in danger of getting left behind without any cheese! Poor 2nd Mouse…

  214. pugsma said

    The Bollinger Bands (BB) on the SP500 have constricted to less than 100 points (4116 to 4214).

    Considering the elevated level of 4165, that’s a construction just 2.3%. Thus, a big move is likely coming very soon to clear this condition.

    Primary (white/green) massive move up to 4350+

    Alt(blue) massive move down to 3939.

    Good luck traders!

  215. pugsma said

    There would be some really good buys at 3934 to 3724, IF we can get the alternate (blue) count major [4] to follow the year 2010 scenario.

    As I’ve been saying here since early April, I’m sitting in cash only day trading when the counts align (like the minute (1) and minor B wave up to 4187 from 4129).

    The key for me near a potential big topping area to preserve capital for the next great bull wave opportunity. I don’t trade the bear wave lower.

    • Rodney said

      You have mentioned that strategy before and recently. I have found it quite helpful in learning how to use EWT for investing / trading. It is perhaps your most important comment. So, thank you very much.

  216. pugsma said

    AAII Weekly Sentiment still only 23% Bears

    NAIIM at 104% long. Massive greed here.

  217. pugsma said

    IWM just broke Tuesday’s low and QQQ hit Tuesday’s low.

  218. pugsma said

    SP500 has a small head and shoulders top pattern with head at 4219, neckline at 4118 and target at 4017.

    Open weekly gap at 4020 to 4034.

  219. pugsma said

    The 2nd mouse grabbed the minute (2) pull-back for QQQ at 326.45 and SP-500 at 4147 and is now off and running attempting a critical break above 4187 opening the door to a move above 4219 per the primary (white/green).

    • pugsma said

      IWM also held above the critical 215.24 level touching 218.64 this morning.

    • pugsma said

      Everything held were it had today this morning on SP500, IWM and QQQ. Now the bulls are back in control to break this out above 4188 and 4219.

      • Sagar Patel said

        👍

        Pugsma said

        May 4, 2021 at 7:19 pm
        Don’t forget about this bullish short-term stat trigger on Thursday, April 29th:

        If you like bullish very short-term stats here is one for you. On Thursday the $NYSE closed up 5 days in a row with the $SPX close at 4211. Over the last 5 years this condition has led to the $SPX closing on average 0.9% higher than 4211, which is 4249, 31 of 33 times (94% probability). 4249 is a +2.0 gain from Tuesday’s 4164 close by Thursday, May 6th.

  220. droc14 said

    need a red vix for 3rd step today.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&w=990&w=990&w=990&cmd=print

  221. MS53 said

    Possible then that either QQQ or IWM or both have topped already and that the Generals have one last hurrah ?

  222. pugsma said

    I just updated the ARKK daily chart in the 2021 CCA.

    ARKK hit 106.37 at today low. It needed to break below 106.25 to confirm the alternate (blue) count much lower.

  223. Debido said

    Taking all that into consideration …playing the odds over time… I’m going to stay with the primary account until we get stopped out..

  224. pugsma said

    COIN (COIN Base) drop to $254 this morning, right at it’s $250 reference price from when it went public.

  225. pugsma said

    There are just so many things already down -30% to -50% off the highs in 2021 to buy even cheaper, IF we can get that flush down from the entire markets in the coming weeks.

    • pugsma said

      Once these beaten down high growth, no earnings stocks begin to the turn back up the buying frenzy is going to be intense and the overall market will rally.

      • pugsma said

        The primary (white/green) count says the SP500 will get keep treading water above 4118 here before this buying frenzy kicks in.

      • greggcreek said

        Steve:

        How does the wave count forecast for ARK hold up with the potential S&P 500 forecast for a top soon? The comment with high growth stocks turning back up, would indicate the SP500 primary would have to be the forecast in order for ARK primary wave count to also be the forecast. Just trying to get a technical view for correlation. Thanks.

  226. hmeda said

    According to Stock Traders Almanac the day before and the day after Mother’s Day weekend is bullish. Also, the TRIX turned up on the 2 & 4 hr.

  227. MS53 said

    and a full moon on the 11th….where’s Fishy when u need him? lol

  228. pugsma said

    The small bearish head and shoulders on the SP500 with head at 4219, neck like at 4118 and target of 4017 aligns with a move to the 50-day SMA at 4025 and closes the weekly gap at 4020 to 4034.

    • pugsma said

      That would be a weak major [4] drop by only 16% retrace vs the typical 23% Fib at 3831.

      But given the SP500 strength and -5% loss to complete major at 4017 would be fine.

  229. droc14 said

    So this condition below appears unlikely with approx. an hour to go that it will work this time; SPX need to close above 4211 today. Maybe a question that we should now consider is in the prior 2 times that this signal/stat failed what happened next? did we have a bearish move next? Not sure if urbancamel has done the research on this on the failures or follows up post these stats. Anyways could be interesting.

    Pugsma said

    May 4, 2021 at 7:19 pm
    Don’t forget about this bullish short-term stat trigger on Thursday, April 29th:

    If you like bullish very short-term stats here is one for you. On Thursday the $NYSE closed up 5 days in a row with the $SPX close at 4211. Over the last 5 years this condition has led to the $SPX closing on average 0.9% higher than 4211, which is 4249, 31 of 33 times (94% probability). 4249 is a +2.0 gain from Tuesday’s 4164 close by Thursday, May 6th.

  230. pugsma said

    Interesting ARKK headline…the animals are fleeing the ARK

    https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/status/1390380204326010888?s=21

  231. Jeffery Gough said

    Looking at the $NYAD/Vix/SPx chart the the move the past two days in the Nymo is very minimal. I believe it’s currently at -15..can someone confirm that?

  232. pugsma said

    IF 4188 is exceed the alt (blue) minor B target is (c) =(a) at 4206, with 4188 being (a) and 4147 being (b) of minor B.

    • Wbart21 said

      +1 TY. Any SAEs from #2 shot?

      • pugsma said

        Still under the weather from shot #2 yesterday, but no this severe reaction.

        Nothing worse than having COVID-19 symptoms 3 time since November, two by choice! (Ie taking the vaccine).

  233. pugsma said

    Looks like primary (white/green) won out.

    Break above 4219 targets measure move at 4320, where 4219 + (4219-4118).

    My minor (3) = 2.62(1) target is 4302.

  234. Brad Dantone said

    I’m Going With The Dow Jones Post Election You Are Here Chart. For A Happy May & June – Can You Sing With Me…Baseball, Apple Pie & Tesla ? Chevrolet Was Your Great Grandfather’s Car…

  235. ANT said

    Hi Steve
    Your posts about ARKK from headline Twitter seems like sarcasm if I read it correctly. I’ve been with you many years and usually your contrarian calls against the grain are almost always correct. Are you thinking that ARKK will break upwards with primary count ?

    • pugsma said

      My ARKK TA was updated in the 2021 CCA yesterday.

    • pugsma said

      ARKK broke its March low yesterday.

      When the major indices are in the final leg of P1, primary count, the riskiest, zero earnings growth stock suffer the most. ARKK and many of the zero earnings growth stocks peaked their P1 wave in early 2021.

  236. pugsma said

    Global Liquidity Tapering has begun. Just wait until the US Fed starts to talk tapering later this year. Add in 2021 capital gains tax increases and you got a P2 catalyst cocktail.

    https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1390612065581207553?s=21

    • pugsma said

      Horrifically bad April Jobs Number and March Jobs revised down, should delay the US Fed tapering talk for awhile longer. Potentially good for primary (white/green) count that P1 can climb higher this late spring and early summer.

  237. pugsma said

    Just an FYI breaking above 4219 on the SP500 does not eliminate the alt(blue) and alt(red). In fact if you look at the 15-min and 60-min charts above you can see major [3]=1.23[1] at 4246 for the alt(blue) and major [5]=0.5[1] at 4244 for the alt(red).

    • pugsma said

      In fact a slightly higher high on SP-500 without QQQ and IWM new high confirmation would be a deadly topping combination.

  238. pugsma said

    New high in May at 4222 (so far) above April’s 4219.

  239. Jim Guthery said

    Is the red label your old primary count or is it completely new?

    • pugsma said

      The primary (white/green) labels are the same as before.

      The alt(blue) and alt(red) counts have been modified at the minute and minor wave degree to show them breaking above 4219 to the major wave targets of 4246 and 4244, respectively.

  240. TIMOTHY CREEDON III said

    All 3 scenarios point to (slightly) higher values next week?

    • pugsma said

      Yes, but only very marginally higher to 4244 to 4246 on alt (blue) and alt(red).

      The Primary (white/green) council wouldn’t top late May to Early June (4390) or July/Aug (4550+).

  241. pugsma said

    Friday final hour ramps are typical. Look for SP500 at 4246 or higher if Primary wave (3) to 4302.

  242. pugsma said

    Traders continue to sell QQQ (big cap tech) and ARKK (high growth, no earnings tech).

    Just imagine how bad the selling in the technically stocks will be once the Fed even hits at tampering Bond Buying later this summer and into year end.

  243. MS53 said

    🐀🐀🐀🐀🐀

  244. pugsma said

    Below 4188, “Houston we got a problem…”

    Below 4147, “Boom!, primary ship is destroyed…””

  245. pugsma said

    QQQ hit 326.00.

    Remember below 324.20 the primary count in the QQQ is dead.

  246. Robert Swaim said

    I guess by looking at Tesla and the crypto charts that Elon’s performance didn’t help.
    😉

    On the Qs & SPX I’m a bit surprised by the volumes.

  247. kurt.ove.ler said

    QQQ now trading 321,65

  248. MS53 said

    What explains the very wide variation in price levels between your charts and stockcharts on IWM? Appears to be more than just a dividend factor. But more importantly, I cannot trade the prices that appear on yours, because they don’t exist in the day to day market.

  249. jrw said

    Steve, does a drop below 4129 in the futures market invalidate the primary?

  250. pugsma said

    FYI There is at least one options here for SP500 primary count, where a drop below 4129 is not important. (Ie minor 4 is valid above 3984)

    We could see QQQ and IWM reach key downside targets today that fits with a major [4] bottom.

    I will be reviewing all current wave counts after today’s price moves.

  251. pugsma said

    On IWM I see a good wave count with major [4] complying today as wave minor E of and ascending triangle at (c) = (a) at 213.63

  252. pugsma said

    Note: QQQ has a minor C=A at 320.06 and major [4] 23% Fib at 317.18.