PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog

PUG Stock Market Analysis is here to help with SP500, QQQ, IWM, Gold technical analysis, stock analysis and more.

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  1. Rick Gundzik said

    +1000

  2. flemingdaf said

    Happy New Years to you Steve and everyone here.
    Hope Everyone has a blessed New Year.

    David

  3. charles blood said

    Steve: I see 2021 Happy New Year picture. Is that the message? Charlie B.

  4. pugsma said

    Also, you can logout of your account and see that no one without a paid registered membership account can see the new 2021 blog post.

    This is new membership system is going to be very efficient, saving hassle of e-mailing monthly access passwords and sometimes get blocked by subscribers e-mail system.

    Your paid membership will be active for the entire paid period: monthly, quarterly or annual. Once the paid period if over, you will need to pay for the next period to continue with the services.

  5. Vasile Szakacs said

    Cheers!

  6. dgs said

    Hi Steve

  7. mmariett said

    Happy New Year !!

  8. Mike Giambattista said

    Happy 2021 !

  9. Frank Bednar said

    Happy New Year!

  10. TomC said

    Happy New Year everyone!

  11. William Waggoner said

    Happy New Year!
    No issues.

  12. RICHARD GUNDZIK said

    Happy New Year!

  13. Dwayne Shuler said

    Happy New Year!

  14. Wbart21 said

    Happy 2021 !

  15. Steven Black said

    I’m in, Happy New Year!

  16. Scott Poeder said

    Happy New Year Steve!

  17. David palmiter said

    Happy New year!

  18. Antonio Ruscitti said

    Happy New Year

  19. moiz bhimani said

    Thanks! Happy New Year Steve and everyone!

  20. jrwolansky said

    Happy New Year to all!

  21. TomC said

    Testing

  22. Bill Shepler said

    Testing.

  23. Wayne Curtis said

    Happy New Year Steve, and best wishes to your Wife.

  24. Hinge said

    Test

  25. Sal said

    Happy Covid-19 free 2021!!

  26. Keith Malone said

    Looking forward to another good year.

  27. rob.willis said

    Happy New Year

  28. RB said

    Happy New Year!

    Steve, how about custom chart service – same new login credential process there soon?

    • pugsma said

      If you paid for the 2021 Custom Chart Archive, then your membership allows you view the charts in the new 2021 page at the top of this blog.

      Those that paid for the 2020 Custom Chart Archive can still view that page with the old password system.

      I have not yet added any new 2021 charts to the archive.

    • RB said

      Okay, I just noticed that there’s a new Custom Chart Archive 2021 link, and it works. Thanks!

  29. Trevor L said

    I’m in the new system. Much appreciated.

  30. henry maddux said

    Got it. HNY to all.

  31. Chrys said

    Happy New Year everyone!

  32. Rodney Mruk said

    Happy New Year and blessings for your entire family. I enjoyed a prosperous year following PUGSMA and hope that 2021 is even better.

  33. kazoom1618 said

    Happy 2021 to all!

  34. Klaas-Jan Doornbosch said

    Happy New Year Steve and everyone!

  35. pugsma said

    Bitcoin continues to surge. McClellan has a chart that shows BTC price surges lead the SP500 surge by at least 5 days.

    https://twitter.com/mcclellanosc/status/1343393719353966594?s=21

  36. pugsma said

    Notice that when the percentage of SP500 stocks above their respective 200-day first reaches above 90% (as it did this past December), then the SP500 melts up for a few more months = My Primary (white/green) wave count.

    https://twitter.com/murphycharts/status/1345414301612462082?s=21

  37. Curt Newsome said

    Looks great, thanks!
    And Happy New Year!

  38. Kah Wing Tham said

    Happy New Year, and looking forward to another profitable year.

  39. pfv75 said

    Anyone having problems logging into the new site using a Chromebook?

  40. Alan W said

    Working here, thanks!

  41. Alrighty2 said

    Happy New Year to all.

    Steve! may the issues that plagued you and your wife in 2020 be gone with its passing.

  42. quocvunguyen027 said

    Test

  43. Ralf Engel said

    Hi Steve,

    thanks for your work and my best wishes for you and your family 2021.

  44. pugsma said

    The 4-Year Presidential Cycle post-elections years show a few day pop at the start of January and then a drop into early February followed by a massive rally into the summer.

    So unless the alternate (blue) count leading diagonal maximum of 3833 is taken out confirming the primary count melt-up) the minor 2 drop is on the table.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/img_8779.jpg

  45. lauter1 said

    Posting test, Happy New Year and thanks Pug!

  46. Joseph Rexroat said

    Posting test – thanks Steve for a great year in 2020…let’s do it again!

  47. Michael Croghan said

    Looks good!

  48. David palmiter said

    Working fine

  49. kazoom1618 said

    Ooooh.

    Nice chart to start the year! 🙌

  50. Donald Petersen said

    Looks good

  51. William Zelnis said

    Good Here!

  52. Deepti Yadlapalli said

    Happy New Year to Steve and everyone else in this forum!

  53. Alan Cottle said

    Good here as well!

  54. MS53 said

    Si jefe, todo bien !!

  55. Gerard Murphy said

    It works.

  56. dgs said

    Works

  57. PHIL VIERNES said

    Banner still shows 2020
    “January 4th, 2020: Test Post”

    Anyone having problems with Logins using Chromebooks???

  58. TIMOTHY CREEDON III said

    Updated thoughts?

  59. charles blood said

    What a reversal? Comments:

    • pugsma said

      Came within 21 points of the 3791 rectangle target at 3770.

      As indicated below Leading Diagonal maximum of 3833, the alternate (blue) count minor 2 correction is in play.

      • Anjali Tewari said

        Happy New Year – how do we know that white count is off the table and blue count is in play – is there a level we should be looking to get long again

        Is there a way to determine higher probability outcome based on options here …

        Trying to understand how to interpret the charts …ty

        • pugsma said

          The wave the primary (white/green) count it currently labeled the minute (3) of minor 3 high is at 3770. The minute (4) wave must hold above the minute (1) high of 3646. So far the low is 3662.

          Below 3362, we have the alternate (blue) minor 2 wave head for at least a 38% Fib at 3566.

  60. pugsma said

    Updated SP500 60-min chart showing that 3646 is a key level to hold.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/PUG-SP500-60-min-1-4-21-A.jpg

  61. Peter Widdoes said

    test

  62. hmeda said

    4 hr – $VXX with H&S depicted. Should take $SPX to higher highs. Neckline at 16.50:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/w1yil0gtugehs3k/20210104_102851.jpg?dl=0

  63. pugsma said

    Those subscribers who purchased the 2021 Custom Chart Archive just received an e-mail about a update for the AAPL and AMZN Charts.

    Link: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2021/

  64. MS53 said

    Also, could only access these two tests thru my email, and not the site directly. Maybe ur just not making available thru refresh button ?

  65. charles blood said

    Error message for test 2

  66. MS53 said

    Beautiful !!!

  67. pugsma said

    SP500, 3689 is an interesting level to watch on the close for Tuesday Jan 5th as it was the starting point 6 trading days ago on Dec 23rd close to begin the “Santa Rally” 7 day period.

    Years that successfully complete a positive Santa Rally 7-day period are extremely bullish overall.

  68. pugsma said

    Alt(blue) count minute (b) wave targets:
    50% Fib is 3717
    62% Fib is 3729
    78% Fib is 3746
    88% Fib is 3757

  69. pugsma said

    It’s simple now:

    A break above 3770 confirms the primary (white/green) count.

    A break below 3663 (then 3646) confirms the alternate (blue) count.

    You can set your short or long Short-term trading stops at or near this levels.

  70. pugsma said

    A quick review of Twitter shows about 10 bearish comment to 1 bullish. Even Uber bulls calling for a -10% drop. Many short.

    I wonder what actually happens…

  71. hmeda said

    Yesterday’s mini flashcrash very similar in symmetry to Dec. 20th. It rose 9 straight days to an all time high after that correction.

  72. pugsma said

    Remember a close above 3689 today is a successful 7-day trading period Santa Rally, which is bullish for the a higher high that 3770 in a January and more importantly a bullish year end 2021 target above 4000.

  73. pugsma said

    Also importantly the NYMO is attempting to close above the zero, which is very bullish for future SP500 short-term price gains.

    And the VIX, which closed above its upper BB yesterday, is attempting to close below it and confirm a VIX sell, SP500 buy signal.

  74. Denali92 said

    HAPPY NEW YEAR!

    Market stats are market stats and Cobra’s one on the BEARISH Engulfing candlestick being next day bullish is definitely one of the best right now, as seen by today – like in most instances, it works 70+% of the time.

    One stat that a number of blogs highlighted in October that I found amazing that is still working well is the one on DOWN Days followed by UP days!
    • It was noted that in September that the Down Days followed by UP days Stat was above 70% for the NDX which was a new high over a 252 day period.
    • Even in most bullish periods since 2006, the stat only got as high as the mid 60%, so the DIP buying right now is even stronger than has been seen in 2017-2018 and other periods of this bull market.

    While the BEARS hate this dip buying, it is what the market is doing and needs to be respected while it is occurring.

    I ran a smilar stat for the RUT / IWM at the end of the year and it is at 70% for Q4. (also, only 37% of the days in Q4 were down days in the RUT / IWM – compared to about 47% normally) Plus other than the last week of October, EVERY significant down day in the RUT / IWM has been followed by an UP day – many quite substantial.

    The markets are back to being PERSISTENT just like in the April – August time frame, though with a slightly different character. For now, I am thinking that this Down Day followed by Up day stat may be one of the keys to highlighting a potential change in market character. Yesterday’s down day was a slight surprise based on the first day of the year trading history, but until the market’s character changes all the BEAR Porn will just be that BEAR Porn (as highlighted by the 10 to 1 BEAR vs BULL comments). It also means that most historical patterns or turning points that might produce tops or pullbacks of some sort will not occur or will be super mild.

    I am not expecting a change in character any time soon….. Generally, the earliest time in January for a potential top is post opex / post MLK. It does not happen all the time, but it is frequent enough that I will highlight it some time next week.

    For now, the trend is higher and PUG has been spot on with his commentary and his levels make a lot of sense.

    -D

  75. pugsma said

    sP500 is now up above the 62% Fib of 3729 and approaching the 78% Fib of 3746.

    Looking Good Bill Ray, Feeling Good Louis !!!

  76. pugsma said

    It’s interesting that the stat for the average Santa Rally 7-day trading period ending today is 1.4% and a 1.4% gain from 3689 EOD Wed, Dec 23rd is at 3740.

  77. pugsma said

    SP500 60-min chart MCAD went bull cross at 1pm EST and was confirmed at 2pm EST.

    Old school swing trading indicator. 🙂

  78. pugsma said

    It should be noted that the NYSE A-D line Cumulative made another all-time close high today vs the SP-500 closing at 3727 vs the all-time closing high at 3757 on Dec 31st.

    This all but assures the SP-500 will close above 3757. (Very good for primary (white/green) wave count)

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

  79. pugsma said

    NYMO above the zero line in early intra-day trading.

    Close matters.

  80. pugsma said

    Maybe my most important tweet of 2021.

    Words to live by…

    https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket/status/1346835207203287043?s=20

  81. David palmiter said

    Did we technically satisfy the Santa Claus rally.?

    • pugsma said

      Absolutely we did confirm the Santa Clause Rally indicator with the close on Tuesday, Jan at 3727 vs 3689 on Wed, Dec 23rd. That’s a 1.0% gain vs an average Santa Rally gain of 1.4%.

      This Santa Rally indicator predicts a positive January and positive year 2021 for the SP500.

      Thus, January 2021 and December 2021 should close above 3757.

      • pugsma said

        Also remember that statistic that when the SP-500 closes up more that 10% in Nov-Dec (as it did in 2020), then January close up on average 4%. A 4% gain from the Dec 31st close of 3757 is a 150 point gain to 3907.

        Where is my minor 3 of major [5]-P1 target? It’s been at 3916 for sever months.

        It’s good to be the King! 🙂

  82. pugsma said

    All those poor shorts who were stacked against this market coming to the new year are being forced to cover.

  83. pugsma said

    I watch three “so called SP500 TA Experts” this morning call for the SP500 to reverse when it hit 3747. They are getting steam rolled looking for pennies. 😉

  84. pugsma said

    GLD could back-test the down channel break-out near 176 to form the right shoulder.

  85. pugsma said

    With the break above 3770 and primary (white/green) wave count has been confirmed.

    The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative close at a new all-time high yesterday with the SP-500 at 3727 was the key.

  86. pugsma said

    SP500 at 3775 is at the top of the rising trend-line on the 15-min chart.

  87. pugsma said

    QQQ 60-min chart MCAD just went to a bull-cross at 11am EST. Confirmation needed at noon EST.

  88. pugsma said

    QQQ 60-min chart MACD Bull Cross Confirmed!

  89. pugsma said

    I just tweaked the QQQ charts and reposted them to bring them in-line with SP-500 wave counts.

  90. pugsma said

    Note: With about 30 minutes to the close NYMO is well above the zero line near +10

  91. pugsma said

    I’m so proud of this group of 2021 subscribers, I didn’t have to moderate (delete) a single comment on the current political events in Georgia or Washington.

    As I’ve said here for 12 years, good technical analysis work ignores the noise of the news.

    Honestly during 2020 I had to moderate (delete) a lot of comments on the news. I’m thinking some of them weren’t really subscribers but trolls who got access to the monthly password. Now with this much more secure individual login and password membership system, I’m expecting that issue will be solved.

  92. pugsma said

    AAII Weekly Sentiment has reset considerably; this is bullish for the SP-500

    Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
    January 7: 42.13% 24.37% 33.50%
    December 31: 46.08% 27.12% 26.80%
    December 24: 43.57% 34.44% 21.99%
    December 17: 43.43% 30.28% 26.29%
    December 10: 48.06% 25.09% 26.86%
    December 3: 49.07% 28.25% 22.68%
    November 26: 47.25% 25.27% 27.47%
    November 19: 44.35% 29.29% 26.36%
    November 12: 55.84% 19.29% 24.87%
    November 5: 37.96% 30.56% 31.48%
    October 29: 35.29% 29.41% 35.29%

  93. pugsma said

    TEVA initial charts added to 2021 Custom Chart Archive https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2021/

  94. pugsma said

    It’s really simple here at 3783 on the SP500. The alt(blue) count Leading Diagonal maximum is 3833. Above 3833 the alternate (blue) is eliminated and a melt-up to at least 3916 via the primary (white/green) count is underway.

  95. pugsma said

    That’s it for me for today.

    Going to take a some time away from the screens after lot of screen time the first 4 days of the new year.

  96. Denali92 said

    IWM / RUT is a beyond unbelievable move. Once it hit ESCAPE velocity in the 2nd of its 8 weeks above the upper weekly bollo, it has been unstoppable….

    PUG is the only person that I saw projecting higher and higher targets….. The Stocktwits stream was filled with non believers…. Must admit that I have been skeptical too as I thought it was following the post 2016 election pattern – which meant it stalled for 4 plus months in 2017.

    Thankfully, once you acknowledge the market’s persistence, you just need to figure out which index is going to be the most persistent. Since September 24th, it has been the MID and the RUT, which took over from the SPX and NDX which led July and August’s persistent move. I am not sure why they took the torch for the market, but they certainly have been the leaders.

    -D

  97. Jim Guthery said

    Steve, what happens when we complete the target of around 3972?

  98. pugsma said

    FYI just so everyone is prepared, there is Uber bullish variant of the alternate(blue) that will take over for the current alternate (blue) and may even become my primary wave count IF 3833 is broken above.

    That is that the move from 3727 to 3637 to 3770 to 3663 was a running flat wave for minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3.

    Thus this move up from 3663 to 3810 is just the beginning of minor 3 of major [5].

    Minor 3 = 1.62 * minor 1 at 4435.

    Let’s Go!

  99. PETER LABON said

    Any thoughts on the fact that W.[5] green in IWM is so large for a fifth wave compared to what came before? Is there a more bullish interpretation for IWM? Thanks

    • pugsma said

      IWM is just like SP500 in that major [3] was only slightly larger (1.1) than major [1]. Thus the major [5] wave will often extend to at least 1.62 times major [1] and sometimes 2.62 times [1].

      • pugsma said

        The Elliott Wave Theory concept I play here is that abnormally weak wave 3’s often lead to very strong extended wave 5’s.

      • PETER LABON said

        Thanks, that makes sense. To take it a step further, in these types of waves (wave 3 slightly bigger than wave 1, and wave 5 possibly quite a lot bigger), are there any conclusions we can make about the correction that follows the 5th wave? For example, in terms of price or time being unusually large or small?

        • pugsma said

          No. But I’ve said this many times here, I don’t expect that P2 wave to be more than a 38% Fib of P1. In 2010, P2 was only a 30% retrace of P1.

  100. pugsma said

    I just couldn’t stay away from my screen.

    I’m too committed (addicted) to charting. 🙂

  101. Wildmarkets said

    There was an error in the aaii sentiment survey. They corrected it. Numbers are January 6: Bullish 54.0% Neutral 19.4% Bearish 26.6%.

    • pugsma said

      That’s a pretty big change. Surprised they would release with such a mistake, but at least they corrected it:

      Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
      January 6: 54.0% 19.4% 26.6%
      December 30: 46.1% 27.1% 26.8%
      December 23: 43.6% 34.4% 22.0%
      December 16: 43.4% 30.3% 26.3%
      December 9: 48.1% 25.1% 26.9%
      December 2: 49.1% 28.3% 22.7%
      November 25: 47.3% 25.3% 27.5%
      November 18: 44.4% 29.3% 26.4%
      November 11: 55.8% 19.3% 24.9%
      November 4: 38.0% 30.6% 31.5%
      October 28: 35.3% 29.4% 35.3%

  102. pugsma said

    Critical day here for the SP500.

    Above 3833 the alternate (blue) wave counting leading diagonal is eliminate and the primary (white/green) minor 3 wave marches on to the 3916 target.

  103. pugsma said

    I know Tony G from Chicago has been asking for a TLT update for a few weeks, Tony I’m sorry it took my awhile to get back to TLT.

    • Tony Gabrione said

      Thank you, Pug! Very much appreciated and great work as always. I have a great interest in bond and rate movement so I find this chart extremely helpful.

  104. pugsma said

    FYI all the alt (blue) count targets have been hit:

    SP500 3814
    QQQ 318
    IWM 209

  105. pugsma said

    GLD has reached the right shoulder target area of 175 of the potential bullish IHS.

  106. pugsma said

    Good SP500 TA chart here from Andrew Thrasher.

    Shows that SP500 gains likely capped for a few weeks and a pull-back is probable.

    https://twitter.com/andrewthrasher/status/1347183740099960832?s=21

    • pugsma said

      This agrees with SP500 larger bull bar above the daily BB study from yesterday, showing gains will be capped and the SP500 will either drop or trade sideways.

      • pugsma said

        So here how this gains capped agrees with either wave count

        Primary; break above 3833 to complete minor 3 somewhere below 3929. Then consolidate sideways in a minor 4 for several weeks to a month.

        Alt(blue): complete minor 1 leading diagonal below 3833 then drop big in a minor 2 wave.

  107. RB said

    At current levels
    SPX 2nd day above daily BB
    IWM 3rd day above daily BB

  108. Ralf Engel said

    what Level spx is needed for invalidation the white/green count?

  109. pugsma said

    Something interesting brewing into to the close today. I mention it IF we get it.

  110. William Waggoner said

    Looks like $NYMO will avoid falling back into the crash zone today.

    • pugsma said

      The NYMO -20 to 0 “crash zone” is ONLY in play on a drop below -20 and attempt to close above it. I keep trying to teach everyone this.

      So no this is not the key indicator I’m watching at the close

  111. WaterRock said

    Hmmm, SPX & QQQ close at highs but IWM did not. Look forward to tonight’s update!

  112. pugsma said

    I was away from my computer and charting system all day today doing work outside my house.

    If I was at my computer I would have surely noted on the 15-min chart the dip to 3784 at 1:30pm EST ended precisely at the top of the wedge break-out. That was an awesome ST buy set-up opportunity. Oh well, can’t catch ’em all.

  113. pugsma said

    Cobra has three things arguing for significant top soon (could be a little more up first, primary count):

    1) SP500 extreme of extreme above its 200-day SMA ( Bears ultimate weapon)

    2) SP500 open and closed above its Bollinger band (similar to my large bull bar above BB mentioned yesterday).

    3) NYMO turning down near zero line with new SP500 high (ie very weak market breadth).

  114. RB said

    Steve, the AD line snapshot you posted shows a -0.03% change for Friday but the line now reads a +0.05%. So no divergence?

    Separately, what are your thoughts on the common stock only AD line being a more reliable leading indicator of tops? That one had a divergence Friday. Also back on 9/2 when both regular NYAD and SPX had made a new high simultaneously, the common stock only AD line had already been declining for a couple of weeks.

    • pugsma said

      There are many indicators (as I pointed out calling) for limited gains and a long consolidation to correction period of 4 to 8 weeks.

  115. pugsma said

    This panic/euphoria model looks a little overbought…

    https://twitter.com/vixsquared/status/1347890428826284033?s=21

  116. pugsma said

    Buffett Indicator flashing red…

    https://twitter.com/schuldensuehner/status/1348206434396360705?s=21

  117. j99becker said

    Great analog, Steve!

  118. Ralf Engel said

    Your advice seems to play out. Your comparison is very helpful and a good advice for further journey on spx.
    Have a good start in the week, great job done, thanks.

  119. MS53 said

    👍👍

  120. pugsma said

    The dip to 3789 at the open back tested the rising wedge break-out a 2nd time.

  121. Anjali Tewari said

    You got your gap down this morning !,

    What should we be watching for to discern between white and blue …

  122. pugsma said

    TWTR is very interesting…I just posted an initial chart on TWTR into the 2021 Custom Chart Archive: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2021/

  123. pugsma said

    OK so many subscribers have been asking for me to chart Bitcoin. I just added a chart for GBTC into the 2021 Custom Chart Archive: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2021/

  124. pugsma said

    Just a heads up, the SP500 count I showed above on Sunday for a major [3] wave completing here between 3827 and 3900, than a major [4] correction to 3500 area will become the new alternate (blue).

    I’ll stick with the current primary (white/green) minor 3 of major [5] ending between 3827 and 3916. Then a minor 5 correction likely staging above 3650/3700 as the higher probability path.

  125. pugsma said

    If the new alternate (blue) count plays out then we could see a blow-off top move of +200 point, in about a week or two at most, to a major [3] = 1.62 [1] target at 4003.

  126. pugsma said

    On the 15-min chart Today looks like a sub minuette wave 4-iii triangle with a move up to the 3855 wave iii target next.

  127. pugsma said

    I just updated the XLE chart in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive. XLE is signaling what could be tell for the markets.

  128. kazoom1618 said

    Great call on WBA, Steve! 20%+

    • pugsma said

      I Love those explosive setups in big dividend stocks!

      Anyone in 2021 Custom Chart Archive Service that pulled the WBA trigger below $40 when I first started sharing it should be very happy.

  129. pugsma said

    So far the triangle low at 3784 has held on today’s test to 3790.

  130. pugsma said

    IWM new highs!!!

  131. Denali92 said

    Yesterday was an unusual day for the SPX given the close above the upper bollo band on the Friday before opex week and then the gap down and the move lower yesterday. For the last few years, the predominate price action has been for the market to rally in to opex week.

    In the attached, I have reviewed this opex January opex period from a variety of perspectives.

    https://pugsma.com/denalis-turning-points-2/denalis-2021-turning-points/

    Per PUG above, I should have also mentioned MLK day as almost all of the January opex turns have occurred post opex / post MLK, but I must admit I was more focused on the opex data – sorry about that.

    Here is my conclusion from the post:

    Bottom Line:

    Monday’s gap down after Friday’s close above the upper daily bollo band has sent another warning signal to the market, but until there is downside confirmation with multiple consecutive down days and also follow through lower after a BIG down day (greater than 1% drop), one must expect the market will continue to rally and will remain persistent for at least a while longer, if not quite a lot longer.

    It may not make a lot of sense to most market historians, technical analysts or value oriented investors, but until there is an actual sell off that turns market sentiment, the path of least resistance is higher. This is simply the way the market operates when it is in a persistent state.

    The message from market history is definitely mixed. Persistent markets MUST BE respected, but it should also be noted that of the 15 persistent market periods since 2009:

    -7 ended during the opex period,
    -3 ended during the very beginning of the month (eg 1-May-19, 2-Sep-20),
    -3 ended post the employment report
    -2 ended on the 26th of the month (April 2010 and Jan 2018)

    For now, PUG has a great feel for the market and his levels and perspective are a very good guide for how to proceed.

    -D

  132. pugsma said

    Dow Transport new high. The market does NOT top with the transports at a new high.

  133. pugsma said

    I love these IWM and QQQ wave counts.

  134. Robert Swaim said

    GDX is right at the .618 retrace of the rise from 33.07 to 39.01

  135. pugsma said

    Mapping out the sub-minuette degree waves is always a challenge.

    Today’s low at 3777 is a 38% Fib of the move up from the 3705 wave ii-(5) of minor 3 low to 3823.

    Thus, this pull-back likely the sub-minuette wave 2-iii wave that will test the 38%/50% Fibs at 3776/3764.

    Wave sub-minuette wave 3-iii up to new all-time highs would be next.

  136. pugsma said

    NYSE A-D line cumulative is looking to close at all-new high today with the SP500 below the Jan 8th record close of 3825. Likely means new highs above 3825 are coming soon.

    Relentless Bull market just keeps rotating between sectors each day and destroying those positioned bearish or in cash.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

  137. pugsma said

    I love it when a bullish triangle breaks down to embolden the bears then plays out as bull flag higher 😁

  138. […] Service uses Elliott Wave Theory, channel analysis, Fibonacci extension/retracement, momentum oscillators and chart […]

  139. lauter1 said

    Thanks Pug – always helpful and appreciated!

  140. pugsma said

    Based on historical stats for the SP500 being up > 1.5% during the first 5 trading days, the SP500 on average will end 2021 up 15% (4320) with 90% probability.

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1349196915204911104?s=21

  141. pugsma said

    AMZN and REGN Charts have been updated in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive

  142. pugsma said

    I have this rotation from IWM to QQQ toady. Yesterday is was all about IWM.

    A bull market just rotates from sector to sector and keeps going higher.

  143. pugsma said

    Love this 2020 analog to 2009 and 1982 start of massive cyclical bull markets:

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1349366310455676930?s=21

  144. pugsma said

    Some traders in “the TA know” are buying the dip the past two days with the new NYSE A-D Line Cumulative making a new all-time closing high yesterday.

  145. pugsma said

    AAPL Chart Updated added to 2021 Custom Chart Archive

  146. pugsma said

    I just added an initial chart for ABUS to the 2021 Archive

    I also updated the JETS chart.

  147. pugsma said

    Monthly ROC: More evidence that even If there is some small gains up towards 3916, a corrective consolidation is likely next.

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1349413324287430657?s=21

  148. pugsma said

    CRM is very interesting and thus was just added to the 2021 Custom Chart Archive

  149. pugsma said

    Such a great day for doing individual stock charting when the overall market was relative boring but positive!

  150. pugsma said

    The people who run the AAII Weekly Sentiment Survey have been struggling the past two weeks with data accuracy.

    Last week they first reported Bullish Sentiment had dropped to 37% then latter corrected it to 54%

    Now this week we have a 100% Bulls initial report!

    Sentiment Survey Historical Data
    Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
    January 13: 100.0% % %
    January 6: 54.0% 19.4% 26.6%
    December 30: 46.1% 27.1% 26.8%
    December 23: 43.6% 34.4% 22.0%
    December 16: 43.4% 30.3% 26.3%
    December 9: 48.1% 25.1% 26.9%
    December 2: 49.1% 28.3% 22.7%
    November 25: 47.3% 25.3% 27.5%
    November 18: 44.4% 29.3% 26.4%
    November 11: 55.8% 19.3% 24.9%
    November 4: 38.0% 30.6% 31.5%
    October 28: 35.3% 29.4% 35.3%
    October 21: 35.7% 31.2% 33.0%
    October 14: 34.8% 29.5% 35.7%
    October 7: 34.7% 26.3% 39.0%
    September 30: 26.2% 30.7% 43.1%
    September 23: 24.9% 29.1% 46.0%
    September 16: 32.0% 27.6% 40.4%
    September 9: 23.7% 27.8% 48.5%
    September 2: 30.8% 27.4% 41.8%
    August 26: 32.1% 28.3% 39.6%
    August 19: 30.4% 27.2% 42.4%

  151. pugsma said

    Just put PLTR into the 2021 Custom Chart Archive.

    And I gave it out as free setup on Twitter.

    I will trading a lot more individual stocks during 2021 than I did during 2020, so I’ll be active charting stocks for the 2021 CCA Service. I 2020 was an easy money long to trade the indices (SPY, QQQ, IWM). 2021 should be much more difficult in the indices, so looking for other areas to profit.

    https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket/status/1349739732893396992?s=20

    • jrwolansky said

      Is the subscription to the custom chart archive only available as an annual subscription, or do you have shorter timeframes available for those who want to ‘give it a try’?

      • pugsma said

        2021 CCA is an annual subscription only. I’ve already charted 10+ stocks for 2021. It will reach 100+ easily during 2021. Plus, I will update the most interesting ones (several times) throughout the year.

    • kazoom1618 said

      I love it when you post a chart that I’ve been following, and your TA agrees with mine!
      It really boosts my confidence in the trade (And you always have cleaner targets than I do!)
      Thanks, Steve!

    • William Waggoner said

      THCX, ARKK weren’t on my radar at all when you first charted them. Very happy with the CCA service. Thanks Steve.

  152. pugsma said

    Just update the BYND Charts on the 2021 Custom Chart Archive

  153. pugsma said

    My THCX chart from Oct-Nov to hear on January 2021 has played out to near perfection!

    THCX chart just updated in the 2021 Chart Archive.

  154. Denali92 said

    With respect to opex week and the SPX / SPY, there is ABSOLUTELY no insight that I can provide….

    Only thing I will note, is that the IWM / RUT has maintained its rather amazingly pattern (70+% now) of following a down day with an UP DAY! Until that pattern changes, the market is not going down….

    Tuesday’s low was a bit more normal behavior relative to history for an opex week with a GAP DOWN on Opex Monday compared to the Monday lows that were made after Gap Downs in April and June… but otherwise, there is nothing to say…

    Next Tuesday and Wednesday post the MLK holiday will be key days – especially if the SPX is still working on an inside week. Inside weeks for opex week are quite rare. Technically, there was one in November 2020 using the SPY price data – which then saw the market break higher.

    I did a study a few years ago on opex weeks that were inside weeks and there was NO EDGE at all. About 1/2 the time, the play was to go with the break of the inside week range and the other half was to fade the break after a day or two…. Other than November 2020, I believe the last inside weeks were in 2018. (October – Broke lower and continued lower and February – broke higher, but then the move was faded and the market had a sharp sell off as it was in a very choppy period that did not end till early April)

    As I doubt there will be any reason to comment till next week, ENJOY the LONG WEEKEND!

    -D

  155. pugsma said

    Yet another day of rotation in the markets as small caps and financials along with re-open stocks led the way.

    Note: the NYMO closed up near +20 and the NYSE A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high.

    Very bullish internals.

  156. pugsma said

    PLTR 💰💰💰. 2021 Custom Chart Archive very timely update yesterday.

  157. pugsma said

    SP500 200-day up to 3300 today and rising rapidly.

    The SP500 at 3785 is 475 points, +14.7% above. Was over 16% a couple weeks back..

    Using time, not so much price, to correct the large delta.

  158. kazoom1618 said

    SPX 5min:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=t0282395416c&a=670251131&r=1610724679635&cmd=print

    Double top target matches 62% rt at 3724

  159. pugsma said

    3750 low was a perfect expanded flat wave

    wave a: 3823 to 3777
    wave b=1.23a: 3777 to 3827
    wave c=1.62a: 3827 to 3750

  160. pugsma said

    Primary (white/green) will place minor 3 at 3827 and the minor 4 23% Fib target is at 3691.

  161. pugsma said

    The alternate (blue) count makes the most sense for year 2021 per my thinking, as I showed in the years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 comparison last Sunday/Monday. The alternate (blue) will likely some become my primary (white/green) and the primary (white/green) will become the alternate(blue).

  162. pugsma said

    FB Chart added to 2021 Custom Chart Archive

    FB is very interesting here.

  163. pugsma said

    Here are the IWM and QQQ Chart updates before the close.

  164. Jim Guthery said

    Is it possible that 3826.69 is top and we work our way to 3500 now? Or is this number not close enough to 3845?

    • pugsma said

      Yes, it is possible 3827 is the alternate (blue) major [3] top and and major [4] correction to a 23%/38% Fibs of 3583 to 3424 or a -6.8% to -10.5%

      • Jim Guthery said

        In your opinion which would be the more likely outcome coming off a (3) top? I was leaning more towards 38% but I have a tendency to get lost real quick as these moves happen so fast.

        • pugsma said

          The -10.5% correction to the 38% Fib for major [4] at 3424 would not surprise me. The rising 200-day SMA should be in the 3400 area by the time major [4] were to reach that target area.

  165. pugsma said

    After the bounce from 3750 to 3785, the the primary (white/green) count is set-up for a gap down when the markets open on Tuesday. Target is (y)=(w) at 3708, near the minor 4 wave 23% Fib at 3691.

  166. RB said

    The daily post commentary is getting increasingly insightful. Love it. Enjoy the weekend

  167. […] Premium Service Sign-Up […]

  168. pugsma said

    Do or die time for the primary (white/green). 3801 is precisely and c=a target for minute (x) of the minor 4 wave (w)-(x)-(y) double zig-zag correction and 3798 is the 62% Fib retace.

    Above 3801 the SP-500 is very likely headed much higher than 3827 per the alternate (blue) wave count.

  169. pugsma said

    Active Investment Managers are leveraged more that 100% Long as of last week Jan 13th.

    Date NAAIM Number Mean/Average Bearish Quart1 Quart2 Quart3 Bullish Deviation
    01/13/2021 106.76 50 89.81 100.00 107.50 200 39.85
    01/06/2021 94.51 0 80.00 100.00 101.25 200 39.11
    12/30/2020 82.97 0 65.25 88.25 100.00 200 47.07
    12/23/2020 89.11 0 80.00 100.00 100.00 200 44.19
    12/16/2020 101.47 0 88.75 100.00 116.13 200 42.33
    12/09/2020 106.11 0 89.88 100.00 100.00 200 40.98
    12/02/2020 103.17 0 90.00 100.00 100.00 200 38.90
    11/25/2020 106.74 0 86.50 100.00 130.00 200 44.54
    11/18/2020 106.41 -12 93.19 100.00 107.50 200 44.54
    11/11/2020 96.30 0 70.00 100.00 137.50 200 50.26

  170. pugsma said

    So far today’s SP-500 price action, VIX drop, NYMO move above zero line and NYSE A-D Cumulative move high all favor the alternate (blue) count move above 3827.

    The close matters, so we’ll see if it holds up at 4 pm EST.

  171. pugsma said

    The 2021 CCA FB chart is playing out nicely 💰

  172. pugsma said

    I was hoping to get my NFLX chart update out before market close and the earnings. I just added it to the 2021 CCA.

    Back on Aug 14th, 2020 I showed the NFLX daily and weekly chart in the 2020 CCA with major [3] complete at $575 and after major [4] consolidation, I was projecting NFLX would reach $607 in a major [5] wave. Now today Jan 19th, 2021 it looks like the major [4] triangle completed at $485 on Jan 12th and a major [5] wave up to a triangle target of $633 (Avg) to $692 (Max) is underway.

    Here is the free update on TWTR with the NFLX weekly chart comparison between Aug 14th, 2020 and Jan 19th, 2021.

    https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket/status/1351649631734820864?s=20

  173. sef88 said

    test thank you

  174. Denali92 said

    Opex Monday and Opex Friday gap downs rarely happen in bullish markets, but this market is clearly a bit different right now.

    While it could change with the Wednesday and Thursday post opex / post holiday price action, right now the SPX has had its second opex period in a row where the high for the opex period was immediately followed by a gap down, a brief move lower and a BOTTOM followed by a strong rebound back near the highs. (NOTE: This is RARE and surprising Opex period price action)

    • In December, it took a few days, but then the market went on to make new highs after the MAJOR Bottom on the Monday post opex.

    As for this January opex period, we will not know for certain until Friday, but as I wrote last week, until there is downside confirmation with multiple consecutive down days and also follow through lower after a BIG down day (greater than 1% drop), one must expect the market will continue to rally and will remain persistent for at least a while longer, if not quite a lot longer.

    The SPX did follow through lower last Friday after Thursday’s down day, but that was it and we are now already back near the opex week highs after just two consecutive down days for the SPX (but not the MID or RUT which were both up on Thursday).

    The market is due a pullback (especially the MID and RUT), but persistent markets like the current one can remain persistent and extended for far longer than most people would expect and history would predict.
    • This was the case last summer and has been frequently the case during this bull market, especially since November 2016.

    If the SPX gets through this week, there is the FED Meeting next week (26th & 27th), but after that early February is not known as a time for tops as the last MAJOR TOP that occurred in early February was back in 1999 (a 9 day 5 plus % correction…)

    For now, all significant surprises continue to be to the upside and that is the direction of least resistance until proven otherwise.

    -D

  175. kazoom1618 said

    And another Denali:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DNLI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p08614828752&a=874039671&r=1611153119981&cmd=print

    Triangle breakout targets +35%

  176. pugsma said

    Really good chart here.

    https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/status/1351964377134624773?s=21

  177. pugsma said

    Intra-day NYMO only at +10 and below the beak of +15 at 3727 high on Friday, Jan 8th.

  178. pugsma said

    As you can see from the IWM and QQQ wave count updates, the primary (white/green) count pminor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave did not end at 3827 on Friday Jan 8th and is targeting the original minor 3 =2.0*minor at 3916, shown on all the SP500 charts prior to Thurs Jan 14th. Major [5]=[1] at 3972 remains the primary (white/green) count P1-C3 target as it’s been on the charts for 3 months since the major [4] low at 3209.

  179. pugsma said

    I just updated the GBTC (Bitcoin Proxy) charts in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive

  180. pugsma said

    Note the yellow diagonal line added to the 60-min and 4-hr charts tonight. It reaches back to the 3924 low from late October. The Friday, Jan 15th low at 3750 was right at this yellow uptrend line. It was the 2nd hit of this uptrend line after the first trading day of the new year drop to 3663. Thus, this line is very important in calling the top of this move high. When this uptrend line breaks down, the minor 4 (primary) or major [4] (alt blue) pull-backs are likely underway.

    • pugsma said

      While breaking the yellow uptrend line and 3750 is key to the top call and move lower in minor 4 of major [4], the important level to watch on the upside is 3921. Above 3921, the primary count gives way to the alt (blue) mine higher to 4003.

  181. pugsma said

    While all the bullish hysteria was going in IWM, EV stocks, Oil Stocks, etc, the many big cap tech stocks corrected back to near their 200-day SMA’s.

    Now traders and investors are waking up to this fact. I’ve been showing this in 2020 and now 2021 Custom Chart Archive for months.

    Cha-Ching Cha-Ching for those (like me) that have follows all on in the CCA and made the trades.

  182. pugsma said

    Over 100% leveraged long Bulls at 113%, highest I’ve ever seen.

    This should be fun when it comes un-raveled…tick-tock, tick-tock, tick…ding, ding, ding…

    https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

    Date NAAIM Number Mean/Average Bearish Quart1 Quart2 Quart3 Bullish Deviation
    01/20/2021 112.93 75 100.00 100.00 119.75 200 36.46
    01/13/2021 106.76 50 89.81 100.00 107.50 200 39.85
    01/06/2021 94.51 0 80.00 100.00 101.25 200 39.11
    12/30/2020 82.97 0 65.25 88.25 100.00 200 47.07
    12/23/2020 89.11 0 80.00 100.00 100.00 200 44.19
    12/16/2020 101.47 0 88.75 100.00 116.13 200 42.33
    12/09/2020 106.11 0 89.88 100.00 100.00 200 40.98
    12/02/2020 103.17 0 90.00 100.00 100.00 200 38.90
    11/25/2020 106.74 0 86.50 100.00 130.00 200 44.54
    11/18/2020 106.41 -12 93.19 100.00 107.50 200 44.54

  183. pugsma said

    I love this seasonal SP500 chart AFTER a “new” US President is inaugurated :

    Tick-tock…

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1352344026373115918?s=21

    • pugsma said

      And this…

      https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1352340405526925317?s=21

    • Denali92 said

      I do like the Tick, Tock – there are definitely a few warning signs out there – but there has never been the follow through…

      The new President chart is an interesting one:

      2016 (Trump) – Market bottomed in Nov 2016 and stayed persistent until Summer 2017
      2008 (Obama) – Kept going lower till 6-Mar-09
      2000 (Bush) – Post election bounce ended in December and first significant rally started at the end of March 2001
      1992 (Clinton) – First real pullback occurred from early March 1993 till late April 1993, then the market gradually moved higher
      1988 (Bush) -Peaked in early Feb 1989 and had a month long pullback of a little less than 5% and started moving higher in April 1989
      1980 (Reagan) – Peaked in December 1980 and final bear market low was not hit until August 1982
      1976 (Carter) – Hit a MAJOR high in Jan 1977 and kept falling till March of 1978
      1968 (Nixon) -First of the “Nifty Fifty” peaks was in December of 1968 and market did not bottom until May of 1970
      1960 (Kennedy) Market stalled in April of 1961, but did not top out until Dec 1961

      Overall, a more detailed look supports the chart, but there is a wide disparity, so it really is an averaging out of the different outcomes. BUT I must note that this persistent market has not really followed the seasonality or election charts that closely, as it has just been too persistent and the dip buyers have been always rewarded since November.

      The IWM /RUT is the index that continually amazes me up over 50% from the September pullback low and far more than 100% from last March’s lows, and the longest correction since September has just been 1 week.

      If there is follow through lower, I will be back early next week with a closer look at what has historically happened both during this time of year and after persistent market rallies have ended.

      Have a good weekend!

      -D

  184. MS53 said

    My understanding of primary vs alternate is that 3921 must be broken above in the Current wave 3 to eliminate the ED and convert the primary to the alternate.

  185. pugsma said

    Bullish Sentiment Extreme

    Tick-Tock…

    https://twitter.com/macrocharts/status/1352586811147694081?s=21

  186. pugsma said

    FYI the NYSE A-D line cumulative made a move lower yesterday with a new all-time SP500 closing high.

    The ingredients are in place for a minor, major or even primary wave top.

  187. pugsma said

    Everyone should review this years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 comparison chart I published at the begging of January.

    It predicted at 3845 top to major [3]-P1-C3 and big major [4] drop up next.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/PUG-SP500-2009-2010-to-2020-2021-Comparison-1-10-21.jpg

  188. pugsma said

    The bottom of the 60-min chart bearish rising wedge yellow trendline is at 3795 and will be at 3805 on Monday.

  189. pugsma said

    Tick-Tock….

    https://twitter.com/andrewthrasher/status/1352388024324206595?s=21

  190. pugsma said

    IWM and QQQ Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock…

  191. Sal said

    +1

  192. Debido said

    Much Appreciated. Is there a green energy ETF Eqiv? TAN is the solar ETF, and its had a Monster Run… not sure if its chartable?

    Change of Administration will push green energy higher?

  193. kazoom1618 said

    Unlike fossil fuels, uranium has formed a wedge over those yeaas, and recently broke out:

    CCO.TO Monthly:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CCO.TO&p=M&yr=19&mn=1&dy=0&id=p72851972117&a=559669744&r=1611342003458&cmd=print

  194. pugsma said

    I just noticed that the SP-500 weekly RSI indicator as made a negative divergence between the Sept 2nd high at 3588 and now at 3861. That’s quite bearish for a possible “major” wave not just “minor” wave correction soon.

  195. pugsma said

    NYMO continues to struggle below zero line and no closes over +20 for almost 2 months.

    Narrow market breadth as the SP500 creeps slowly higher.

  196. pugsma said

    VIX on average has also gone higher since early December with a slow rising SP500. That’s a VIX positive divergence wrt SP500. Yet potential negative for future SP500 price action.

  197. pugsma said

    From a market index perspective now, it’s better to be a boy scout and not a ranger.

  198. Donald Petersen said

    Does the DJT provide any guidance as to market direction???

  199. pugsma said

    The real money is being made trading my 2021 Custom Chart Archive long sets ups like I showed did FB, AAPL, and AMZN on Jan 13th.

    All 3 are up 7 to 10% in less than 2 weeks.

    And of course my NFLX call options play last week into earnings

    • matthastings1 said

      PLTR too

      • pugsma said

        Yes and WBA and BYND.

        I called about 10 great individual stock long set-up in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive in early January. They have played out to make us who took them major $. 😎

        • pugsma said

          IF you haven’t make your $240 annual fee back plus 10 fold or more from the long set ups posted in the 2021 CCA, then you must be not trading. It’s been grand slam!

        • Jim Guthery said

          I won’t mention tickers but big pops this morning in one. Just awesome charting!

          • pugsma said

            Yes BYND up 30% at 207 to near a new all-time ($239) high following the path laid out in the 2021 CCA several weeks ago. Just awesome!

          • pugsma said

            I’m continuing to 100% trade my 2021 CCA individual stocks chars and 0% trades on SP500, QQQ or IWM.

            I continue to emphasize that the big money to made in during 2021 is with stock picking not with the stretched indices.

          • pugsma said

            Taking big profits out of SPY, QQQ and IWM and using them to found my individual stock trades based on the 2021 CCA charts as worked extremely well.

  200. pugsma said

    If you have been trading stocks for more than year 2020 (i.e. you are not a 20 something Robinhood trader), you know that when companies losing money hand over fist and keep popping +20%, +30%, +50% in a single day, then this is a sign of a topping area.

    • pugsma said

      Eg GME from $17 to $159 in a little over 7 days of trading. Short interest the highest on the street at 34% certainly helped that one. Can’t imagine how much some of those short lost. They might be jumping out windows…

  201. Denali92 said

    WOW. Your levels for the IWM have been AMAZING! 217.65 was your target and we have hit 217.89 and immediately pulled back.

    For at least the 3rd time since November, your charts have had a target that did not seem realistic to me (I remember the first one was around 187), yet the market has headed to almost your exact level – very impressive.

    Tick-Tock is definitely the right advice – as one of these days there will be follow through lower. The timing is right per your 2009-2010 analog…. Maybe the FED meeting this week will be the catalyst.

    Well done!

    -D

  202. pugsma said

    Note bearish rising wedge support from the Oct 3243 low is at 3805.

    Break 3805 and you won’t be to find a long left to turn out the lights!

  203. pugsma said

    Watch the smart big money carry those dip buyers a few rounds now to distribute more of there shares to the dumb money…

    Tick-tock…

  204. pugsma said

    Turn Out the Lights, The Party’s Over…

  205. pugsma said

    Today’s little 62 point drop from 3859 to 3797 was nothing.

    Wait to see what happens once the smart money finishes their distribution here.

  206. pugsma said

    Distribution…

    Tick-tock…

  207. pugsma said

    In case you are wondering both counts are calling 3861 the top of this near 3 month long move up from 3234.

    There is a slight possibility that the primary (white/green) count eek out one more higher high that 3861.

    • Anjali Tewari said

      Are there equal levels for IWM and QQQ

      Also – having a lot of trouble with the login – keep getting logged out multiple times a day – anything I can do about that ?

  208. pugsma said

    The discussion on CNBC is very important right now.

    Gamblers! Time for them to pay!

  209. pugsma said

    There is only one chair left and music is about to stop!

    • Jim Guthery said

      P2 or 4?

      • pugsma said

        Primary 1 (P1) is not complete.

        Primary (white/green) wave count is looking for a minor 4 of major [5]-P1 down to 23%/38% Fibs of 3717/3623 into early March and then a minor 5 wave up to where major [5] = [1] at 3972 into April/May

  210. Klaas-Jan Doornbosch said

    so when i have it right we get a last wave up just above 3861 ( 3916 max ?) with neg div before a pulback to 3717/3623 or we have set the top last week and are now declining to 3717/3623?

  211. kazoom1618 said

    From your Jan 14 chart of BYND – its now up 92% – Now that’s a wave 3!

  212. pugsma said

    Inside the 2021 CCA Service, I’m going to be publish an interesting Technical Analysis updated take on Bitcoin via the GBTC proxy.

    There are some analyst who are wildly bullish and others who are wildly bearish. But what’s PUG’s take?

    • pugsma said

      OK I just published in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive service a detailed technical analysis look at GBTC (Bitcoin proxy) across the weekly, daily, 60-min and 15-min time frames.

  213. pugsma said

    OK I just spent most of the afternoon update BLNK, TSLA and FB per customer paid updates.

    https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2021/

    Some subscribers are obviously getting a lot at of this $240 annual 2021 CCA Service. I happy for that and happily spending a good deal of my time on the chart updates.

  214. Chrys said

    If NYMO closes below -31.58 is it ‘night, night noodles’ for SPX?

    • pugsma said

      No. There are no definitives for SP500 wrt NYMO level.

      I will note that IF the NYMO closes below its lower BB it always a potential SP500 buy trigger.

  215. pugsma said

    The NYMO did close below its lower BB at -30.81 vs -30.08.

    This a technically a valid SP500 Buy trigger, even though the SP500 is only -21 points down from all-time high of 3871.

  216. Michael Croghan said

    Just an observation for tonight/tomorrow. We just had MSFT reporting after the close today. Tomorrow, besides Fed, we have AAPL, FB, and TSLA reporting earnings AMC on Jan 27. These megacaps are all within striking distance of ATHs. Short interest very low on these with the exception of TSLA.

    -Michael

  217. pugsma said

    Remember my warning from Thursday, Jan 21st. That day could be here…

    Pugsma said

    January 22, 2021 at 8:38 am e
    There will likely be a day soon, the market gaps down > -1% and falls all day trapping the complacent bulls.

    Reply

    Denali92 said

    January 22, 2021 at 8:45 am e
    Agreed!

    that is definitely the way most of these persistent market episodes have ended.

    -D

    Reply

  218. Jim Guthery said

    It appears the blue wave is aligning well here with the charts. But I am confused with minor 4 vs. major 4. If minor 4 breaks 3750 it becomes invalid, but the minor 4 bottom is 3725/3629. Does this mean you will readjust charts? I don’t think there is a big difference in the bottom of minor vs. major unless it paints the major 4 50%.

    • pugsma said

      Primary (white/green) count minor 3 wave up is confirmed ended after a break below 3750. But realistically it’s over on a break of Monday’s low at 3797. Those 3735/3629 23%/38% Fibs targets for minor 4 were based on minor 3 ending yesterday at 3861.

  219. RB said

    Steve, green count M3 = 2 x M1 = 3887 is what I am calculating? We came pretty darn close yesterday. Interesting day ahead

  220. pugsma said

    So far in the pre-market SPY has hit 378.76 vs a low on Monday of 378.46. So the SPX is equivalent is 3801 vs 3797.

    Only the cash market matters, but IF the 3797 Monday low falls then it’s a minor 4 (primary) or major [4] (alt blue) wave much lower over then few weeks.

    • Anjali Tewari said

      Monday low has failed on IWM in pre-market – but SPY and QQQ are still slightly above …

  221. pugsma said

    FYI GME (Game Stop) hit a early morning (5:47am EST) high of $367, now $208.

    Apparently the Big Hedge funds covered their shorts on Tuesday for a $5 Billion loss!!!

    • pugsma said

      Aren’t you glad you did trust your $ to a Hedge Fund and invest on your own.

      It seems every year, we here about another Hedge losing Billions or returning negative equity while the SP-500 continues to gain. Why would anyone trust them with their $

    • Anjali Tewari said

      It’s amazing what is happening on GME – small retail fighting big boys …

      Looks like the focus has shifted to AMC now … the short squeeze is on in full force this morning ….

  222. pugsma said

    I just added an interesting BA (Boeing) chart to the 2021 Custom Chart Archive.

  223. pugsma said

    SP500 broke below Monday’s 3797 low.

    Minor 3 top at 3871 likely in place now.

    Minor 4, 23%/38% Fib targets as shown on my charts are 3725 to 3629

  224. pugsma said

    Remember that the minor 4 wave lower will at least be 3 waves.

    Minute (a) down now.

    Then a minute (b) bounce to a 50% Fib of (a).

    Then a minute (c) down again.

    • Jim Guthery said

      Thanks

    • pugsma said

      3767 looks like it could be then minute (a) of minor 4 low.

      Now the minute (b) bounce to a 50% Fib of 3819.

      Then (c)=(a) down to 3715, near the 23% Fib of 3725.

      • Robert Warmington said

        That seems to be a pretty fast drop for a decline that should last into March.

        • pugsma said

          Only if it’s the alt(blue) major [4] would this decline last a few weeks to a month.

          Primary (white/green) count minor 4 could be done in 2 to days to a week.

          Price is paramount not times.

          I don’t know how often I’ve had to say them at here over the past decade.

  225. pugsma said

    Always remember the 2nd mouse gets the cheese!!!

  226. pugsma said

    If you are in favor of a bigger correction that 3725.

    I can see a potential head and shoulders with head at 3871, neckline at 3750 to 3767 and target of 3629. That’s right at the 38% Fib.

  227. Alan W said

    In a ABC wave decline don’t buy the A drop (first mouse), wait for the C drop (second mouse).

  228. MS53 said

    Trying to sell a membership. Can you buy the CCA service, but not the Premium service ?

  229. hinge said

    Steve Are you going to discount/pro rate the CCA as the year goes on to members not yet joined?

  230. Sal said

    Hi Steve,
    I think these charts fit better than the charts from the 26th with the real price action developing. The IWM touched 217.9 white/green path and QQQ touched 330.3 blue path, both 1 point over your count and then went down. Could them now follow one green and the other one blue path? Amazing work…Thanks a lot.

  231. pugsma said

    Might be seeing a contracting triangle minute (b) of minor 4 wave; so far oscillating between 3767 and 3811.

  232. greggcreek said

    For those following GBTC (bitcoin), there is an ETF called ‘The Bitcoin Fund’ on the Canadian Market (TSX) called QBTC.to ($Can) or QBTC/U.to. It is an approved trading ETF security.

    • fintechworklab said

      Be on the lookout for OBTC (Osprey Bitcoin Trust) which should be released very soon. OBTC boasts much lower fees than GBTC – 49bps vs 200bps.

    • kazoom1618 said

      Oh good – so I can directly convert my snow pesos to bitcoins! (I almost typed ‘bitcon’ LOL)

  233. pugsma said

    Looking at more detail on the SP500 5-min chart, I’m see 5 waves down from 3871 to 3759. So we are still likely in the minute (a) wave of minor 4. Minute (a) should be a 5-wave drop. The minute (b) a 3-wave rises. Finally minute (c) another 5-wave drop.

  234. pugsma said

    FYI, I have idea for the SP500 primary (white/green) count where have been seeing an on going minor 4 expanded flat wave since the Friday, Jan 8th high at 3827.

    Minute (a) was 3827 to 3759.

    Minute (b) was 3750 to 3871.

    Now minute (c) = 1.62*(a) at 3746.

    • pugsma said

      Definitely a reason possibility here with the NYMO close well below it’s lower BB and near -70.

      Also the VIX will like close above its upper BB.

      Both of these conditions are potential SP500 Buy Triggers, IF they close today this way.

      • pugsma said

        You always to keep monitor things like this on the NYMO and VIX because it can help you decide when a wave lower is potentially near.

        I was hard to understand why the NYMO was so weak for so long with the SP500 gaining.

        But IF minor 4 has been an on going flat or expanded flat wave over the past few weeks, then it makes since that the NYMO was not rising. Now this big drop could be the final 5-wave flush to complete minor 4.

    • pugsma said

      This 3746 area is all at the lower light blue channel support on the 60-min chart that has held since the 3512 low in early November.

  235. Denali92 said

    Still 30 minutes to go, but I thought I would highlight that the SPX is closest to the worst FED day in my records – which go back to 1998.

    In September 2011, the market peaked on the day before Fed day and fell 2.9%. The market bounced late the next day after falling a further 4.5% and then rallied for a few days before heading lower in to the final corrective bottom in early October 2011.

    December 2007, the market fell 2.7% on Fed day. It fell a further 3.1% over the next week before bouncing during December opex week. It then headed lower again in January.

    March 2001 is another day when the SPX fell 2.7%, but this was after a long downtrend and the market made a significant bottom 2 days later.

    The only other FED day that I have that was down more than 2% is in December 2000. The SPX had its post election peak the previous week. On Fed day it fell 2.0% and then it fell another 2.9% the next day and bottomed 2 days after the Fed day. It then bounced in to the end of the year (29-Dec) back to near the Fed Day highs. The 2001 market sell off did not start until the 31-Jan-2001 Fed Meeting.

    I will post tomorrow in more detail on potential historical analogs. Most significant January sell offs last in to early February, BUT the 2020 sell off which started on the Wednesday post opex (22-Jan-20) and lasted 9 days until Friday, 31-Jan-20.

    Pug has done a GREAT job with his Tick, Tick, Tick warnings…. and his view that this correction will be an ABC correction fits well with MOST corrections that start in January…. as none continued past the 2nd week of February (2018 had a 26-Jan-18 top and a bottom on Friday, 9-Feb-18. This was the 11.8% Vixplosion correction)

    The next two weeks could be quite interesting.

    -D

    • Denali92 said

      I should note that all of those FED days were in more bearish markets that had seen their highs well before the particularly Fed day fall.

      I am not aware of a BIG down FED day after the SPX had posted a 52 week high the day before, so what is occurring today is most likely a historically unprecedented Fed day.

      -D

  236. Laura A. Young said

    Thank you for your informative market technical notes, seasonality and timely “tick, tick, tick” notes. I adjusted my positions over the last few days — remained calm (even cheering a bit yesterday) because i was ready and saw good profits — thank you!!

  237. Klaas-Jan Doornbosch said

    abc almost finished?

    • pugsma said

      If you look at the charts and read the text of the Jan 27th update, then you will see that the primary (white/green) count has a minor 4, minute (a)-(b)-(c) complete at 3732.

      The alternate (blue) count has on compared minor A of major [4] at 3732. Now in minute B up to the 50% Fib of 3802 and then another leg down below 3732 for minor C to C=A at 3663

      • Klaas-Jan Doornbosch said

        yes thats what i meant 😉 I am dutch so maybe thats the problem. My question was at 3802 or the abc correction was over and we can decline again ( when the blue count is correct)

        Thanks !!!

        • pugsma said

          You should NOT focus the alternate (blue) counts.

          The primary (white/green) wave is always the highest probability path.

          As I’ve said here for a decade plus now. I ONLY trade the primary wave count.

  238. pugsma said

    If you look at the year 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 chart comparison, then you will see that the late January to early February year 2010 drop for major [4]-P1 broke below the 50-day SMA on day 3 of the drop (which is today).

    Thus, the fact that the SP-500 held the 50-day SMA (3714) and has moved up to 3800 already makes my primary (white/green) count headed above 3871 more likely than the alternate (blue) count dropping to 3663.

    • pugsma said

      Also the 62% Fib retrace is at 3818. Above 3818, it’s extremely likely primary (white/green) minor 5 wave of major [5]-P1-C3 wave up to 3972 is underway.

  239. pugsma said

    Everyone here who positioned long with me late yesterday when I correctly identified the primary (white/green) minor 4 wave expanded flat wave real-time here in the comment section should be very happy and profitable this morning. 🙂

  240. pugsma said

    IF the NYMO and VIX closed where they are right now, then the NYMO Based SP500 Buy and VIX Based SP500 Buy signals would be be confirmed.

    • pugsma said

      The close is all that matters on those signals, so we will wait and see…

    • pugsma said

      More gains ahead IF we get these bullish NYMO and VIX closes and SP500 Buy Confirmations end of today.

      But as usually the biggest one day gains are accomplished when buying the triggers, not the confirmations.

  241. TIMOTHY CREEDON III said

    Klaus
    Stick with the Primary.
    The “tick-tock” message this week warned of frothyness/overbought (A-D divergence, bullish sentiment extended, etc). All ‘suggested’ a pull back. Bam Result–a one day somewhat massive break.
    The clue was late afternoon when PUG identified the fib retracement might/had occurred and thus Primary held at #4, a 23-38% fib retracement.
    PUG cant/wont tell you to cover shorts and/or go long, but did, pretty much, say so!!
    Now pretty much a rally to 3970ish
    Hope this helps.
    Keep studying. It will come.

  242. Partagas said

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1354538424078766081/photo/1

  243. Vamsee Karanam said

    Steve, kudos on the longs from yesterday’s low.

    Now that we are above 3818 (fib), could this still be in play?
    Just testing if my lines and patterns are valid…

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/FcTKhJ9t/

  244. Denali92 said

    So another instance of NO follow through after a big drop – so the persistent market is still intact. Though for once, the RUT is lagging, which is different than we have seen after BIG drops. Both PUG and Cobra’s indicators called today’s rally and it has happened. It also confirms that yesterday’s fall was not related to the FED (otherwise there should have been follow through lower and a possible bounce today), it was just time for those Tick Tock warnings to be realized with a sharp one day sell off.

    MAJOR TOPS and BIG Sell offs do not occur that frequently in January. In fact, since 1998, there have only been 7 January tops and sell offs of greater than 3.6%. NONE of these were a final high for a rallying market. The 5 tops that have occurred since 2009 all occurred between the 19th and 26th of January.
    • The shortest correction was the 9 day 3.7% one in 2020 that ended on 31-Jan-20, and it is the only one that terminated in January.

    The two things I wanted to highlight with respect to the other 6 corrections are as follows:
    • Other than the one in 2018 that had a peak on 26-Jan-18, all of the January corrections had a sharp bounce in the last few days of January – only the one in 2000 lasted for more than a few trading days. (ie. they were ABC corrections per yesterday’s comment)
    • The SPX then fell further in February, but all of the runs lower, except for the one in 2000, ended between the 2nd and 8th of February.

    For now, we will just need to wait to see if this was just another quick correction like the ones that ended on the Monday post December opex, on 4-Jan and on opex Friday in January or whether it develops in to something more significant. I have no strong historical evidence either way for the SPX. But by tomorrow or the latest on Monday, it should become clearer if the SPX is going to go lower and make a February bottom or whether yesterday was just another quick corrective sell off that will allow the rally to resume.

    -D

  245. orion.colorado said

    $NYMO treading water around the -40 mark, could be interesting

  246. Jeffrey Robinson said

    I’m not one who thinks the selling is over, but I remain open minded. They will have to take out the all time highs to convince me. I liked more downside to form a proper wave 4, that could last a few days longer.

  247. pugsma said

    Lowest Bullish Weekly Sentiment since Oct 28th, 2020 when this rally from 3234 began.

    That’s not bearish!

    Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
    January 27: 37.7% 24.0% 38.3%
    January 20: 42.5% 23.0% 34.5%
    January 6: 45.2% 23.1% 31.7%
    December 30: 46.1% 27.1% 26.8%
    December 23: 43.6% 34.4% 22.0%
    December 16: 43.4% 30.3% 26.3%
    December 9: 48.1% 25.1% 26.9%
    December 2: 49.1% 28.3% 22.7%
    November 25: 47.3% 25.3% 27.5%
    November 18: 44.4% 29.3% 26.4%
    November 11: 55.8% 19.3% 24.9%
    November 4: 38.0% 30.6% 31.5%
    October 28: 35.3% 29.4% 35.3%

  248. pugsma said

    The NYMO did close back inside its lower BB at -39 vs -46, confirming its SP500 Buy signal.

  249. Michael Croghan said

    Thank you so much Steve for your hard work.

  250. Anjali Tewari said

    So at this point – looks like it do or die for blue count … if it breaks 3725 then will that confirm the blue count ?

  251. pugsma said

    Just just updated GBTC (Bitcoin Proxy) for the 2021 Custom Chart Archive subscribers.

  252. pugsma said

    On the SP500, the drop form 3831 to 3742 was a 88% Fib retracement.

  253. pugsma said

    Also, a red VIX closed today would be double confirmation of the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal

  254. pugsma said

    Something potential very interesting and potentially very bullish for the SP500 is developing.

    Any close today with the SP500 below 3751 and the NYMO above -64 sets up a +DIV on the NYMO below the highly oversold area of -40. That can be a powerful SP500 Buy setup.

  255. pugsma said

    A simple minor 4 wave, minute (a)-(b)-(c), where (c)=(a) at 3692 was just hit.

    • pugsma said

      Also holding above the wave 4 of previous degree, in this case wave minute (4) if minor 3 at 3663, is a very typical for a minor 4 target.

  256. pugsma said

    AAPL near its rising 50-day of 128 and FB at its rising 200-day 153.

  257. pugsma said

    Remember that this wave 4 pull-back is the final good opportunity of year 2021 on route to 4000 to 4300.

  258. pugsma said

    I just updated charts for both PLTR and MSFT in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive

  259. Denali92 said

    PUG has made some good points on the potential bottom here. There are definitely two ways to look at the bottom potential.

    1) All corrections since the March 23rd bottom have been reasonably short and since November every large down day has resulted in a strong bounce the next day and other than this week, that big down day has seen the market head higher the next day.
    • The SPX corrections since March have only seen the SPX trade below the lower bollo band in two instances. The September correction for one day (though it was not quite the final low) and the October correction for three days.
    • The SPX has traded at the lower bollo today, so that could be the end of the correction or close to it.
    • The January 2020 correction just had a trade down to the lower bollo on the last day of the month before heading higher in February to those significant Feb opex highs. The current price action also has quite a few similarities to the Jan 2020 corrective price action. On 31-Jan-2020, the SPX was down almost 60pts and 1.8% It gapped up and WENT on Monday, 3-Feb-2020. (The January 2020 and January 2021 monthly candles are remarkably similar)

    2) On the other hand, the shortest correction since March was the 7 day 8.2% correction in June.
    • The other two corrections were September’s 22 day 10.9% correction and October’s 18 days 8.9% correction.
    • Additionally, today triggered the lower bollo study that I published in September. It did not prove accurate back then, but after 60 trading days above the lower bollo, it generally takes multiple days of trading below the lower bollo for the SPX to form a bottom. (emphasis on the generally!)
    • The shortest January correction since 2009 was the 9 day one in 2020 that bottomed at the lower daily bollo and the longest was the 17 day one in 2010 that saw a 9.2% correction and an 88% retrace of the November to January rally.
    • Lastly, when the market is persistent, especially as the RUT has been, the market has a tendency to correct to the 20 week MA, which is near 3580 on the SPX right now.

    PUG has had a great feel for the market and his Tick Tock warnings have been spot on.

    From a historical perspective that takes in to account the January price action since 2009, one would expect this current correction to last certainly in to next week and possibly till as late as Thursday, February 11th and the SPX should trade below the lower daily bollo band for a few days as well as target the 20 week MA.

    BUT, per the first point, every pullback of this market since the October bottom has been bought quickly and aggressively, so I would not be at all surprised if the same thing occurred with this pullback. I also should note that the market has not followed the historical patterns all that closely since last March and when the markets are persistent, the corrections are shorter and shallower than history would predict.

    For me, the biggest question is concerning sentiment. Has the fall since Tuesday been enough to re-set sentiment or is more time and lower prices needed like in September and October to provide the appropriate sentiment re-set?

    As always, the historian in me is more cautious, even if I am well aware that this market has not followed the historical bottoming patterns all that well since the March low, save the pre election bottom.

    If relevant, I will be back on Monday with a full run down of the 7 January corrections since 1998.

    Have a good weekend,

    -D

  260. pugsma said

    At the close, the VIX closed above its upper BB and the NYMO below its lower BB. Both of those SP500 Buy triggers have been reset.

  261. pugsma said

    Notice my years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 comparison chart made and posted on Jan 10th is playing out to near perfection.:

    So far this years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 comparison it playing out perfectly with the recent top of major [3]-P1 at 3871 vs the 3845 prediction made on Jan 9th, 2021. Now a correction for major [4]-P1 down to 3507 is predicted per the year 2009-2010 comparison followed by a major [5]-P1 rally to 4142.

    • pugsma said

      While I’m still favoring my primary (white/green) wave count that I’ve had since the September 3209 low, the odds for the alternate (blue) that following the years 2009-2010 comparison chart are now at least virtually equal to the primary.

  262. lauter1 said

    For what its worth, thinkorswim is showing NYMO at -60, and stockchart link just refreshed also showing -60. Maybe we have the positive divergence?

    https://www.screencast.com/t/SRuZqfii8eX

    Big thanks to Pug for all the live updates. Have a great weekend.

    • pugsma said

      That’s a nice surprise.

      A two day NYMO +DIV wrt the SP500 from oversold below -60 often leads to a SP500 rally. We’ll know Monday morning…

  263. droc14 said

    Hi All –

    Looks like final tape shows a + NYMO divergence. Have a good weekend all.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&w=990&w=990&w=990&cmd=print

  264. pugsma said

    Really good video by Tony Dwyer on how you can use the recent big drop in the NAAIM Exposure index to help with understanding this market correction.

    https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1355559463915294720?s=21

  265. pugsma said

    Mean while overnight here in Chicago…

    https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1355885157908164612?s=21

  266. MS53 said

    Thanks for all these videos. Looks like major [2] was a flat and [4] was a simple ZZ, so guideline of alternation has already been satisfied in the primary count, right ?

  267. Jeffrey Robinson said

    Thanks, Steve. “Sell in May and go away” or “buy Yom Kippur, sell Passover” support your theory for the key peak in April/May.

  268. pugsma said

    I have to say one of the big negatives with all this GME, AMC, attention is that the online brokers (like ETrade) can’t seem to handle the new user and trading volume and I’m often unable to get into to my account to place trades.

  269. pugsma said

    Keep in mind that that wave 4’s love to become triangles.

    For the primary (white/green) count, the minor 2 wave was a deep (88% Fib) zig-zag correction. So a minor 4 shallow (holding between the 23% Fib and 38% Fibs) consolidation triangle for a few weeks between 3684 and 3871 would fit nicely with the guideline of alternation.

  270. MS53 said

    Your 3694 bottom call on Friday got me 75 SPX points. Thanks Steve.

  271. Vamsee Karanam said

    Cross roads…

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/1G56mroB/

  272. Denali92 said

    On Friday, I said I would be back with more info on the 7 January corrections since 1998, but as there was no new corrective low to start February and the SPX is up so much today, there does not seem right now much point in providing any further perspective on those January corrections,

    For now, with today’s strong rally, “recency” is prevailing, as the pattern that emerged last year (short corrections and then gap up and rally after big down days – just like what occurred last Wednesday / Thursday as well) is being followed. Last week may have been a repeat of the January 2020 correction (9 day 3.7% correction) which ended at the lower daily bollo on 31-Jan-2020, which is very similar to what occurred last week – though this 2021 correction is, so far, 4.6% in just 3 days.

    The first of Feb is quite frequently a strong up day – even in most of those 6 corrective periods, but this is stronger than most.

    -D

  273. pugsma said

    NYMO closed at -27.

    No failure allowed at the zero like this time. Need to see the NYMO close above +20 within the next couple days to confirm primary (white/green) wave count for the minor 5 wave up to 3972. Minute (2) within minor 5 might just be a small intraday dip.

  274. pugsma said

    I saw this potential bullish set-up on BABA today but didn’t have time until tonight to draw it up.

    BABA Earning before the market opens, so we could know soon if it plays out.

    https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1356412129574793218?s=21

    • BZ said

      Chart looks great, Thanks you for the update. 329 would be a dream. The $300 weekly calls traded as low as .30 today.

  275. pugsma said

    JPM agrees with PUG SMA. You should have bought recent SP50”0 dip and the VIX spike.

    Nice Positive returns 1, 3, 6, and 12 months out. In fact the1 month is up 100% of the time with an average return of +4.8%, which puts the SP500 back at the all-time high of 3871 by the end of February.

    https://twitter.com/macrocharts/status/1356573083562344448?s=21

  276. pugsma said

    A Red VIX close today is a double confirmation of the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy trigger setup from Friday’s close.

  277. pugsma said

    SP500 at 3818 is well above the 62% Fib at 3804.

    Giddy Up!

  278. pugsma said

    For the alternate (Blue) the 3694 becomes the major [4] low.

    Major [5]=[1] target raised to 4457 !!!

  279. pugsma said

    We got the Bears necks pinned to the ground. Squeeze…

  280. MS53 said

    Weekly RSI 9 put in a bottom last Friday at 56.81. Now up over 64. Very valuable tool for multiweek swings, right down to one or two week rips.

  281. pugsma said

    How about the SP500 Bullish percentage dropping to near 50% last Friday. Similar to Sept and Oct 2020 drops that set a 3 month bottom.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX

  282. pugsma said

    Updated the BABA Chart in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive.

  283. pugsma said

    FYI, I have removed the password protection from the 2020 Custom Chart Archive.

    It’s free…enjoy!

    https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2020/

  284. pugsma said

    For the alternate (Blue) the 3694 becomes the major [4] low.

    Major [5]=[1] target raised to 4457 and that’s a +16% gain from right here at 3832.

    It’s now time to be aggressive, NOT cautious like the week before last when I correctly called tick-tock, tick-tock.

    Now it’s Giddy Up!

  285. pugsma said

    money, money, money…Money Supply!!!

    https://twitter.com/NDR_Research/status/1356635031700135943?s=20

  286. pugsma said

    Such an incredible new impulse wave off the 3994 low. Still in minute (1) of minor 5

    • Wbart21 said

      Fact that you held firmly to primary during minor vs major 4 debate, extremely impressive/profitable.TY!

    • greggcreek said

      Note to new subscribers – pay attention to a PUG ‘giddy-up’ call, it is a very positive indicator. (Coming from a 10yr+ subscriber)

  287. pugsma said

    Look at those year end 2021 targets on the alternate (blue) count that should likely now become the primary count… $$$

  288. pugsma said

    FYI the intra-day NYMO is currently above the all-important zero level.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print

  289. pugsma said

    I’m done for today.

    Stocks Up! Boiler Up! (Purdue Basketball now ranked #24)

  290. pugsma said

    Yet Another chart calling a key market bottom last Friday, Jan 29th.

    https://twitter.com/macrocharts/status/1356935468848406530?s=21

  291. pugsma said

    QQQ looks to open at a new all-time high above 330.32 😎

  292. pugsma said

    The great news about the 3694 bottom is that we can set out index based investment accounts on cruise control now for the next several months.

    We can now focus squarely on trading individual stocks within the 2021 Custom Chart Archive Service to supplement our main portfolio gains.

  293. kazoom1618 said

    RUN daily – basing at uptrend line and 50 dma:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RUN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=t4635965406c&a=882503729&r=1612364154719&cmd=print

    Room for +40% retrace

  294. pugsma said

    VIX is dropping today along with the SP500 dropping. That’s a bullish SP500 setup

  295. pugsma said

    For all of your that followed me into BABA with the the left shoulder holding $152 yesterday, we are getting paid up 5% today at $267.

    Break above the $270 neckline to really get paid on the move up to the ISH target of $329 (a 22% gain above the $270 neckine).

    Let’s go!

  296. hinge said

    I did options play 200% gain when they expire . Thx

  297. pugsma said

    A subscriber asked me via about Cobra sticking to his call that the SP-500 owes a lower low that 3694.

    I like Cobra’s stats. What I find is that his SP500 (SPY) stats are often good for a short-term trade day or two. But often time is stats don’t work out well calling Intermediate to Long-term bottoms. Not a knock, just what I’ve seen with this work over 10+ years.

    • Denali92 said

      When the market is persistent, like it is now and has been a lot in the last few years, Cobra’s bull stats (ie. expecting the market to go higher….. like his weekly higher high stats) are working extremely well, but his BEAR ones are not that accurate…. as few bearish things are working….

      I think he had one for yesterday that had a 67% prediction of closing lower on the day – clearly that did not happen….

      It is just the way this market is right now…. Recency and persistency are dominant and I really believe it is only the bull stats (like the NYMO lower bollo set up and the VIX upper bollo set up) that provide an edge right now.

      The bear stats might work, but they are just as likely to fail right now…. One of these days that will change…. just not right now.

      -D

  298. pugsma said

    Here’s a quick intra-day SP500 15-min chart update.

  299. pugsma said

    I’ve been asked chart F and GM stocks for the 2021 CCA. So I’ve busy looking into their charts right now. Interesting, say you?

    • pugsma said

      My late Father-in-law worked as an Industrial Engineer with FORD (F) for 40+ years.

      My wife and I drove nothing but Fords for 20+ years. Still miss my 1990 Special Edition 35th Anniversary ThunderBird Super Coupe with the Super Charged engine. All 4 of my kids were given Fords Fusions as college graduation gifts.

      Now after buying my 2016 Tesla Model S, I don’t think I’ll ever drive a Ford again. The wife inherited my 2017 Porsche Macan S, so even she is spoiled now too. LOL

      • pugsma said

        Coming up on the 7 year Tesla Battery warranty limit in 2023. Going to have to make a trade-in decision on a new electrical car or SUV soon. Tesla Cyber Truck?

        • pugsma said

          One things for sure, I need more range that the 260 miles than I have in my 75D, (75kW battery).

          I see the new Tesla Model S long range has a 412 mile range. But I think the Cyber Truck with the Tri-motor is going to be over 500 miles. Now that would be quite useful for driving here in the area of Chicago, St Louis, West Lafayette, and Grand Rapids to see the kids on a single charge.

          • amans19 said

            I believe the Tesla Model S Plaid+ will have a 520 mile range when it comes out later this year.

          • pugsma said

            Yes, I did see that. But it’s $135K vs $69K for the Tri-mother Cyber Truck. I’ll need to do a few more NFLX style options plays to buy the Model S Plaid+. 🙂

        • orion.colorado said

          I’d recommend checking out Rivian before committing to a Cybertruck.

      • William Waggoner said

        My wife and I had never bought a new car in our 40 years together. Thanks to your TA and market analysis 2020 turned out to be the year we took the plunge. She’s a lover of the SUV so we went with Tesla model Y and absolutely love it. We’re city dwellers and don’t drive a whole lot so range (320) was fine for us. Enjoy your new ride whatever you decide on.

    • Robert Swaim said

      I’m in the industry and have a deposit on the Cyber-Truck at the original $39k price because while it looks funky, absolutely nothing will touch the capabilities for the price. That said, the new GM Ultium design is going to kick butt, Toyota is going to have a very fast recharge capability, and there are going to be a number of other new cars/trucks with longer range introduced within the next year.

  300. mm said

    I’m in with BABA too. Very nice call Steve!!!

  301. Partagas said

    Me too. Entered yesterday. Thanks Steve.

  302. pugsma said

    OK I just did my initial charts for both F and GM for the 2021 Custom Chart Archive.

    Note: I have already completed 26 charts in the 2021 CCA in just a months time. I only did 35 charts in the 2020 CCA over 7 months.

    Man this 2021 CCA has become a beast! Most of the TA charts for individual stocks are playing out as predicted.

  303. pugsma said

    Time to order some Chipotle and go pick it up! I’m hungry, so let the Big Dogs eat!

  304. pugsma said

    So the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative is making a née all-time high intra/day.

    IF this closes at a new All-time high today, then the SP500 is very likely to follow soon since 3871.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

  305. pugsma said

    I trust everyone bought the 3817 morning dip on this real-time call:

    Pugsma said

    February 3, 2021 at 10:37 am e
    VIX is dropping today along with the SP500 dropping. That’s a bullish SP500 setup

    Reply

    Pugsma said

    February 3, 2021 at 10:38 am e
    This looks like a wave iv-(1) within minor 5 up. Target for v-(1) at 3871.

    • BeezNeez said

      Is this just a correction within wave iv from today’s high of 3847? So 3871 is still the target?

  306. lauter1 said

    New high for NYAD. https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NYAD

  307. kurt.ove.ler said

    Thx

    What is the short term wave count right here, seen from the alternative blue count perspective?

    • pugsma said

      The same as the white labels, except this is minor (1) of minor 1 of major [5] vs minute (1) of minor 5 of major [5]. Alt blue will have 5 minor waves up to near 4500 vs 1 minor wave up to 4000.

  308. Donald Petersen said

    Can you make a few comments on Gold???? Thanks

  309. BeezNeez said

    Now that yesterday’s high of 3848 was taken out, is 3871+ still a target?

    • pugsma said

      Minute (1) is free to end after anytime now that there have been 5 waves up from 3694

      • BeezNeez said

        Thanks, Steve! If the dip yesterday was a 2 wave down, does that mean we’re in a wave 3 now? ie. could be a strong move up? Sorry. Don’t know all the EW vernacular. 😉

        • pugsma said

          You are discussing sub-minuette waves, which I never discuss. These are the lowest degree waves worth discussing here.

          1-5, A-C : Minor
          (1)-(5), (a)-(c) : Minute
          i-v, a-b : Minuette

          And yes a wave 3 is typically stronger than a wave 1, unless it’s an ending diagonal pattern.

  310. Denali92 said

    Last Friday, I noted there was only one January correction that did not extend in to February – that was the 9 day 3.7% correction that ended on the last trading day of January last year. The SPX then moved strongly higher. Last year, it just took 3 days to recoup the whole correction and set new all time highs. Who knows about this year, but clearly we are getting close.

    I wanted to flag the similarities, as I have already seen two commentators compare Jan-Feb 2020 to this Jan-Feb 2021. There are definitely similarities extending back even to when one looks at the October lows in 2019 and 2020.

    When that January high is taken out, from a February historical point of view, February actually becomes historically more bullish, as there have only been three notable February tops (all of which then bottomed in the March opex period). They were all opex period related (2007 post opex and post holiday, while 2011 and 2020 were during opex week)

    At this point in time, who knows what the February opex period will bring, but I would not be surprised to see a lot more chatter, particularly from those bearishly inclined comparing 2020 and 2021.

    All I know is that the market is incredibly persistent and all corrections are shorter than history would predict.

    -D

  311. carlos simoes said

    small wave 2 tomorrow probably?

  312. pugsma said

    AAII Weekly Sentiment (For Feb 3rd) still almost as many Bears as Bulls. Same as at the late October low of 3234.

    This is great news for us Bulls!

    Sentiment Survey Historical Data
    Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
    February 3: 37.4% 27.1% 35.6%
    January 27: 37.7% 24.0% 38.3%
    January 20: 42.5% 23.0% 34.5%
    January 6: 45.2% 23.1% 31.7%
    December 30: 46.1% 27.1% 26.8%
    December 23: 43.6% 34.4% 22.0%
    December 16: 43.4% 30.3% 26.3%
    December 9: 48.1% 25.1% 26.9%
    December 2: 49.1% 28.3% 22.7%
    November 25: 47.3% 25.3% 27.5%
    November 18: 44.4% 29.3% 26.4%
    November 11: 55.8% 19.3% 24.9%
    November 4: 38.0% 30.6% 31.5%
    October 28: 35.3% 29.4% 35.3%
    October 21: 35.7% 31.2% 33.0%

    • pugsma said

      Here is my challenge for all your subscribers who are making all this money following my SP-500 forecast since March 2020.

      Why haven’t you told you family, friends, co-worker, enemies, etc about my premium service. Heck I even added a 10-day free trial: https://pugsma.com/product/1-week-free-trial-monthly-service-subscription/

      One out of every three people are bearish on the markets. They must be saved from hurting their financial future.

      • MS53 said

        Have led many horses to the water over the years and sent several people the free offer.

      • orion.colorado said

        I’ve been able to get a few people signed on over the past few years sign up, so I try. Still am. Anytime someone is interested in markets/trading, the pugwave comes up; as I know your baseline motivation is as stated above. The banksters have taken enough people’s money.

        Currently, I have two or three people that A) should be reading this and B) should just sign up already. I’ll nudge them again. I also just sent a link over to a friend who just called that could really benefit from the CCA given a new situation that just kicked into gear for them. He should be signing up for CCA at min, probably the standard service as well today/tomorrow.

        In fact, I’ll probably sign on to the CCA given my conversation with him as the day job is slowing down a bit and I am too protective of last year’s gains. Need to shake up my bias a bit.

        Thanks for continuing to do what you do, Steve.

  313. MS53 said

    Wow…Nymo looking for first close over +20 in 2 months. Vix collapsing to 22, getting close to the 20 line !!!

  314. pugsma said

    Another very important comment for anyone new here: It is best to use my Technical Analysis work on the SP-500 trade at the minor degree wave level or above.

    Be very long during major [1], [3] and [5] wave ups.
    Be long during minor 1, 3, and 5 wave ups.

    By the primary (white/green) the SP-500 is in a minor 5 of major [5] up to at least where minor 5=1 at 4035.

    By the alternate (blue) the SP-500 is a minor major [5] wave up to at least where major [5]=[1] at 4457.

    We are in “cruise control” mode here. Sit back and watch your profits grow. Don’t worry about the minute, minuette and certainly now the sub-minuette waves!

    • Rodney said

      Very wise and appreciated commentary. Thanks.

    • pugsma said

      Oh and one more point.

      IF both counts point in the same direction, “Don’t Fight The PUG!” 🙂

    • greggcreek said

      It’s good to follow The King!

    • TIMOTHY CREEDON III said

      “Cruise control” is GOOD!
      Newbies, many times PUG will comment about about an opportinity to add, or if not already long, to initiate at a certain (retracement) level. It wont be, “BUY”, but it should sound/read fairly clear!

  315. pugsma said

    It’s 3 pm EST. Do you know where your Bears are? Bring them home before they get ran over above 3871…

  316. pugsma said

    Customer “paid for&#