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Rick Gundzik said
+1000
flemingdaf said
Happy New Years to you Steve and everyone here.
Hope Everyone has a blessed New Year.
David
charles blood said
Steve: I see 2021 Happy New Year picture. Is that the message? Charlie B.
pugsma said
Yep!
Robert Warmington said
We are headed in the right direction at the close yesterday. Hope everyone had a great new years eve. God bless you and your family Steve.
pugsma said
Also, you can logout of your account and see that no one without a paid registered membership account can see the new 2021 blog post.
This is new membership system is going to be very efficient, saving hassle of e-mailing monthly access passwords and sometimes get blocked by subscribers e-mail system.
Your paid membership will be active for the entire paid period: monthly, quarterly or annual. Once the paid period if over, you will need to pay for the next period to continue with the services.
Vasile Szakacs said
Cheers!
dgs said
Hi Steve
mmariett said
Happy New Year !!
Mike Giambattista said
Happy 2021 !
Frank Bednar said
Happy New Year!
TomC said
Happy New Year everyone!
William Waggoner said
Happy New Year!
No issues.
RICHARD GUNDZIK said
Happy New Year!
Dwayne Shuler said
Happy New Year!
Wbart21 said
Happy 2021 !
Steven Black said
I’m in, Happy New Year!
Scott Poeder said
Happy New Year Steve!
David palmiter said
Happy New year!
Antonio Ruscitti said
Happy New Year
moiz bhimani said
Thanks! Happy New Year Steve and everyone!
jrwolansky said
Happy New Year to all!
TomC said
Testing
Bill Shepler said
Testing.
Wayne Curtis said
Happy New Year Steve, and best wishes to your Wife.
Hinge said
Test
Sal said
Happy Covid-19 free 2021!!
Keith Malone said
Looking forward to another good year.
rob.willis said
Happy New Year
RB said
Happy New Year!
Steve, how about custom chart service – same new login credential process there soon?
pugsma said
If you paid for the 2021 Custom Chart Archive, then your membership allows you view the charts in the new 2021 page at the top of this blog.
Those that paid for the 2020 Custom Chart Archive can still view that page with the old password system.
I have not yet added any new 2021 charts to the archive.
RB said
Okay, I just noticed that there’s a new Custom Chart Archive 2021 link, and it works. Thanks!
Trevor L said
I’m in the new system. Much appreciated.
henry maddux said
Got it. HNY to all.
Chrys said
Happy New Year everyone!
Rodney Mruk said
Happy New Year and blessings for your entire family. I enjoyed a prosperous year following PUGSMA and hope that 2021 is even better.
kazoom1618 said
Happy 2021 to all!
Klaas-Jan Doornbosch said
Happy New Year Steve and everyone!
pugsma said
Bitcoin continues to surge. McClellan has a chart that shows BTC price surges lead the SP500 surge by at least 5 days.
https://twitter.com/mcclellanosc/status/1343393719353966594?s=21
pugsma said
Notice that when the percentage of SP500 stocks above their respective 200-day first reaches above 90% (as it did this past December), then the SP500 melts up for a few more months = My Primary (white/green) wave count.
https://twitter.com/murphycharts/status/1345414301612462082?s=21
Curt Newsome said
Looks great, thanks!
And Happy New Year!
Kah Wing Tham said
Happy New Year, and looking forward to another profitable year.
pfv75 said
Anyone having problems logging into the new site using a Chromebook?
Alan W said
Working here, thanks!
Alrighty2 said
Happy New Year to all.
Steve! may the issues that plagued you and your wife in 2020 be gone with its passing.
quocvunguyen027 said
Test
Ralf Engel said
Hi Steve,
thanks for your work and my best wishes for you and your family 2021.
pugsma said
The 4-Year Presidential Cycle post-elections years show a few day pop at the start of January and then a drop into early February followed by a massive rally into the summer.
So unless the alternate (blue) count leading diagonal maximum of 3833 is taken out confirming the primary count melt-up) the minor 2 drop is on the table.
https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/img_8779.jpg
lauter1 said
Posting test, Happy New Year and thanks Pug!
Joseph Rexroat said
Posting test – thanks Steve for a great year in 2020…let’s do it again!
Michael Croghan said
Looks good!
David palmiter said
Working fine
kazoom1618 said
Ooooh.
Nice chart to start the year! 🙌
Wbart21 said
+1 !
Donald Petersen said
Looks good
William Zelnis said
Good Here!
Deepti Yadlapalli said
Happy New Year to Steve and everyone else in this forum!
Alan Cottle said
Good here as well!
MS53 said
Si jefe, todo bien !!
Gerard Murphy said
It works.
dgs said
Works
PHIL VIERNES said
Banner still shows 2020
“January 4th, 2020: Test Post”
Anyone having problems with Logins using Chromebooks???
TIMOTHY CREEDON III said
Updated thoughts?
charles blood said
What a reversal? Comments:
pugsma said
Came within 21 points of the 3791 rectangle target at 3770.
As indicated below Leading Diagonal maximum of 3833, the alternate (blue) count minor 2 correction is in play.
Anjali Tewari said
Happy New Year – how do we know that white count is off the table and blue count is in play – is there a level we should be looking to get long again
Is there a way to determine higher probability outcome based on options here …
Trying to understand how to interpret the charts …ty
pugsma said
The wave the primary (white/green) count it currently labeled the minute (3) of minor 3 high is at 3770. The minute (4) wave must hold above the minute (1) high of 3646. So far the low is 3662.
Below 3362, we have the alternate (blue) minor 2 wave head for at least a 38% Fib at 3566.
pugsma said
Updated SP500 60-min chart showing that 3646 is a key level to hold.
https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/PUG-SP500-60-min-1-4-21-A.jpg
Peter Widdoes said
test
hmeda said
4 hr – $VXX with H&S depicted. Should take $SPX to higher highs. Neckline at 16.50:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/w1yil0gtugehs3k/20210104_102851.jpg?dl=0
pugsma said
Those subscribers who purchased the 2021 Custom Chart Archive just received an e-mail about a update for the AAPL and AMZN Charts.
Link: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2021/
MS53 said
Also, could only access these two tests thru my email, and not the site directly. Maybe ur just not making available thru refresh button ?
pugsma said
You will need to be logged into “My Account” on the blog in order to view the paid premium service content with your membership: https://pugsma.com/my-account/
MS53 said
yeah, been doing that since you created it. hope this feedback helps ya.
charles blood said
Error message for test 2
pugsma said
It was a test for something important.
I got the result I wanted and I have deleted the post.
MS53 said
Beautiful !!!
pugsma said
SP500, 3689 is an interesting level to watch on the close for Tuesday Jan 5th as it was the starting point 6 trading days ago on Dec 23rd close to begin the “Santa Rally” 7 day period.
Years that successfully complete a positive Santa Rally 7-day period are extremely bullish overall.
pugsma said
Alt(blue) count minute (b) wave targets:
50% Fib is 3717
62% Fib is 3729
78% Fib is 3746
88% Fib is 3757
pugsma said
It’s simple now:
A break above 3770 confirms the primary (white/green) count.
A break below 3663 (then 3646) confirms the alternate (blue) count.
You can set your short or long Short-term trading stops at or near this levels.
PHIL VIERNES said
A break above 3370 confirms the primary (white/green) count.
3370 or 3730??
pugsma said
Above 3770
pugsma said
But bears and shorts should get worried above the 62% Fib at 3729.
pugsma said
A quick review of Twitter shows about 10 bearish comment to 1 bullish. Even Uber bulls calling for a -10% drop. Many short.
I wonder what actually happens…
hmeda said
Yesterday’s mini flashcrash very similar in symmetry to Dec. 20th. It rose 9 straight days to an all time high after that correction.
pugsma said
Again Shaking the weak hands…
pugsma said
Remember a close above 3689 today is a successful 7-day trading period Santa Rally, which is bullish for the a higher high that 3770 in a January and more importantly a bullish year end 2021 target above 4000.
pugsma said
Also importantly the NYMO is attempting to close above the zero, which is very bullish for future SP500 short-term price gains.
And the VIX, which closed above its upper BB yesterday, is attempting to close below it and confirm a VIX sell, SP500 buy signal.
Denali92 said
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Market stats are market stats and Cobra’s one on the BEARISH Engulfing candlestick being next day bullish is definitely one of the best right now, as seen by today – like in most instances, it works 70+% of the time.
One stat that a number of blogs highlighted in October that I found amazing that is still working well is the one on DOWN Days followed by UP days!
• It was noted that in September that the Down Days followed by UP days Stat was above 70% for the NDX which was a new high over a 252 day period.
• Even in most bullish periods since 2006, the stat only got as high as the mid 60%, so the DIP buying right now is even stronger than has been seen in 2017-2018 and other periods of this bull market.
While the BEARS hate this dip buying, it is what the market is doing and needs to be respected while it is occurring.
I ran a smilar stat for the RUT / IWM at the end of the year and it is at 70% for Q4. (also, only 37% of the days in Q4 were down days in the RUT / IWM – compared to about 47% normally) Plus other than the last week of October, EVERY significant down day in the RUT / IWM has been followed by an UP day – many quite substantial.
The markets are back to being PERSISTENT just like in the April – August time frame, though with a slightly different character. For now, I am thinking that this Down Day followed by Up day stat may be one of the keys to highlighting a potential change in market character. Yesterday’s down day was a slight surprise based on the first day of the year trading history, but until the market’s character changes all the BEAR Porn will just be that BEAR Porn (as highlighted by the 10 to 1 BEAR vs BULL comments). It also means that most historical patterns or turning points that might produce tops or pullbacks of some sort will not occur or will be super mild.
I am not expecting a change in character any time soon….. Generally, the earliest time in January for a potential top is post opex / post MLK. It does not happen all the time, but it is frequent enough that I will highlight it some time next week.
For now, the trend is higher and PUG has been spot on with his commentary and his levels make a lot of sense.
-D
pugsma said
Good stuff D. Thanks for sharing with the group.
Your January peaks don’t happen until later in the month agrees with this 4-year Presidential Cycle Chart that shows, early January is sideways to up slightly and then a dip in February followed by a BIG rally into summer.
https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/img_8779.jpg
pugsma said
sP500 is now up above the 62% Fib of 3729 and approaching the 78% Fib of 3746.
Looking Good Bill Ray, Feeling Good Louis !!!
pugsma said
It’s interesting that the stat for the average Santa Rally 7-day trading period ending today is 1.4% and a 1.4% gain from 3689 EOD Wed, Dec 23rd is at 3740.
pugsma said
SP500 60-min chart MCAD went bull cross at 1pm EST and was confirmed at 2pm EST.
Old school swing trading indicator. 🙂
pugsma said
It should be noted that the NYSE A-D line Cumulative made another all-time close high today vs the SP-500 closing at 3727 vs the all-time closing high at 3757 on Dec 31st.
This all but assures the SP-500 will close above 3757. (Very good for primary (white/green) wave count)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354
pugsma said
Did anyone doubt the power of the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative to forecast…now at 3747 and looking for that new closing high above 3757.
pugsma said
Now at 3757. Let’s go!
pugsma said
NYMO above the zero line in early intra-day trading.
Close matters.
pugsma said
Maybe my most important tweet of 2021.
Words to live by…
https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket/status/1346835207203287043?s=20
David palmiter said
Did we technically satisfy the Santa Claus rally.?
pugsma said
Absolutely we did confirm the Santa Clause Rally indicator with the close on Tuesday, Jan at 3727 vs 3689 on Wed, Dec 23rd. That’s a 1.0% gain vs an average Santa Rally gain of 1.4%.
This Santa Rally indicator predicts a positive January and positive year 2021 for the SP500.
Thus, January 2021 and December 2021 should close above 3757.
pugsma said
Also remember that statistic that when the SP-500 closes up more that 10% in Nov-Dec (as it did in 2020), then January close up on average 4%. A 4% gain from the Dec 31st close of 3757 is a 150 point gain to 3907.
Where is my minor 3 of major [5]-P1 target? It’s been at 3916 for sever months.
It’s good to be the King! 🙂
pugsma said
All those poor shorts who were stacked against this market coming to the new year are being forced to cover.
pugsma said
I watch three “so called SP500 TA Experts” this morning call for the SP500 to reverse when it hit 3747. They are getting steam rolled looking for pennies. 😉
pugsma said
GLD could back-test the down channel break-out near 176 to form the right shoulder.
pugsma said
With the break above 3770 and primary (white/green) wave count has been confirmed.
The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative close at a new all-time high yesterday with the SP-500 at 3727 was the key.
pugsma said
I will keep pointing these market indicator educational things out with the hope that some of it is absorbed.
Deepti said
Its been super helpful to me to learn how to use these indicators.
pugsma said
Now that’s what I love to hear! 😁
Robert Swaim said
+1 !!!
thx
MS53 said
yup…my account says you are right again. The gap down open was a pure gift .
pugsma said
SP500 at 3775 is at the top of the rising trend-line on the 15-min chart.
pugsma said
Wave i-(5) of minor 3 could end soon.
AB said
Your live charts used to be fairly easy to find on here, but I do not see the link anymore. Are they still available or did that end?
pugsma said
Ended more that a year ago.
pugsma said
QQQ 60-min chart MCAD just went to a bull-cross at 11am EST. Confirmation needed at noon EST.
pugsma said
QQQ 60-min chart MACD Bull Cross Confirmed!
Sal said
+1
pugsma said
I just tweaked the QQQ charts and reposted them to bring them in-line with SP-500 wave counts.
pugsma said
Note: With about 30 minutes to the close NYMO is well above the zero line near +10
pugsma said
I’m so proud of this group of 2021 subscribers, I didn’t have to moderate (delete) a single comment on the current political events in Georgia or Washington.
As I’ve said here for 12 years, good technical analysis work ignores the noise of the news.
Honestly during 2020 I had to moderate (delete) a lot of comments on the news. I’m thinking some of them weren’t really subscribers but trolls who got access to the monthly password. Now with this much more secure individual login and password membership system, I’m expecting that issue will be solved.
pugsma said
AAII Weekly Sentiment has reset considerably; this is bullish for the SP-500
Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
January 7: 42.13% 24.37% 33.50%
December 31: 46.08% 27.12% 26.80%
December 24: 43.57% 34.44% 21.99%
December 17: 43.43% 30.28% 26.29%
December 10: 48.06% 25.09% 26.86%
December 3: 49.07% 28.25% 22.68%
November 26: 47.25% 25.27% 27.47%
November 19: 44.35% 29.29% 26.36%
November 12: 55.84% 19.29% 24.87%
November 5: 37.96% 30.56% 31.48%
October 29: 35.29% 29.41% 35.29%
pugsma said
Bearish Sentiment is as high (33.50%) today Jan 7th as it was before the US Presidential Election on October 29th (35.29%).
pugsma said
TEVA initial charts added to 2021 Custom Chart Archive https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2021/
pugsma said
It’s really simple here at 3783 on the SP500. The alt(blue) count Leading Diagonal maximum is 3833. Above 3833 the alternate (blue) is eliminated and a melt-up to at least 3916 via the primary (white/green) count is underway.
pugsma said
The 4-year Presidential Cycle (post-election year) data still favors the alternate (blue) count, as it calls for a sideways trade into mid-to-late January and then a big drop (minor 2 of major [5]-P1 wave down) in February. Then a big rally into the summer (minor 3 of major [5]-P1 wave up).
https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/img_8779.jpg
pugsma said
That’s it for me for today.
Going to take a some time away from the screens after lot of screen time the first 4 days of the new year.
William Waggoner said
Thanks. Enjoy your time away.
pugsma said
I had to post this observation I just made via tweet that looks to support alternate (blue), or will this time be like the June 2020 period where the SP500 road the BB much higher before a short-term top.
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1347239872097083392?s=21
Deepti said
I have learnt over the years that the primary count is primary for a reason and to always go with the primary count until there compelling reason to weigh in the secondary counts. For the first time in years, I am leaning towards the blue count. January is going to be an interesting month.
pugsma said
Realized that the alternative (blue) is a more intermediate-term variant to the primary.
Denali92 said
IWM / RUT is a beyond unbelievable move. Once it hit ESCAPE velocity in the 2nd of its 8 weeks above the upper weekly bollo, it has been unstoppable….
PUG is the only person that I saw projecting higher and higher targets….. The Stocktwits stream was filled with non believers…. Must admit that I have been skeptical too as I thought it was following the post 2016 election pattern – which meant it stalled for 4 plus months in 2017.
Thankfully, once you acknowledge the market’s persistence, you just need to figure out which index is going to be the most persistent. Since September 24th, it has been the MID and the RUT, which took over from the SPX and NDX which led July and August’s persistent move. I am not sure why they took the torch for the market, but they certainly have been the leaders.
-D
Jim Guthery said
Steve, what happens when we complete the target of around 3972?
pugsma said
Primary wave 2 (P2). P2 targets have been shown the SP500 chart weekly chart every Friday.
pugsma said
FYI just so everyone is prepared, there is Uber bullish variant of the alternate(blue) that will take over for the current alternate (blue) and may even become my primary wave count IF 3833 is broken above.
That is that the move from 3727 to 3637 to 3770 to 3663 was a running flat wave for minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3.
Thus this move up from 3663 to 3810 is just the beginning of minor 3 of major [5].
Minor 3 = 1.62 * minor 1 at 4435.
Let’s Go!
pugsma said
And this count a ton of merit as the two big double dips to the 3637 and 3663 over the past two weeks has reset bullish to more bearish sentiment.
I’ll be making a decision on IF this should become the new primary count soon.
Bill S. said
+1
PETER LABON said
Any thoughts on the fact that W.[5] green in IWM is so large for a fifth wave compared to what came before? Is there a more bullish interpretation for IWM? Thanks
pugsma said
IWM is just like SP500 in that major [3] was only slightly larger (1.1) than major [1]. Thus the major [5] wave will often extend to at least 1.62 times major [1] and sometimes 2.62 times [1].
pugsma said
The Elliott Wave Theory concept I play here is that abnormally weak wave 3’s often lead to very strong extended wave 5’s.
PETER LABON said
Thanks, that makes sense. To take it a step further, in these types of waves (wave 3 slightly bigger than wave 1, and wave 5 possibly quite a lot bigger), are there any conclusions we can make about the correction that follows the 5th wave? For example, in terms of price or time being unusually large or small?
pugsma said
No. But I’ve said this many times here, I don’t expect that P2 wave to be more than a 38% Fib of P1. In 2010, P2 was only a 30% retrace of P1.
pugsma said
I just couldn’t stay away from my screen.
I’m too committed (addicted) to charting. 🙂
RICHARD GUNDZIK said
+1
William Zelnis said
Well I love it! THANKS!
Wildmarkets said
There was an error in the aaii sentiment survey. They corrected it. Numbers are January 6: Bullish 54.0% Neutral 19.4% Bearish 26.6%.
pugsma said
That’s a pretty big change. Surprised they would release with such a mistake, but at least they corrected it:
Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
January 6: 54.0% 19.4% 26.6%
December 30: 46.1% 27.1% 26.8%
December 23: 43.6% 34.4% 22.0%
December 16: 43.4% 30.3% 26.3%
December 9: 48.1% 25.1% 26.9%
December 2: 49.1% 28.3% 22.7%
November 25: 47.3% 25.3% 27.5%
November 18: 44.4% 29.3% 26.4%
November 11: 55.8% 19.3% 24.9%
November 4: 38.0% 30.6% 31.5%
October 28: 35.3% 29.4% 35.3%
pugsma said
Critical day here for the SP500.
Above 3833 the alternate (blue) wave counting leading diagonal is eliminate and the primary (white/green) minor 3 wave marches on to the 3916 target.
pugsma said
I know Tony G from Chicago has been asking for a TLT update for a few weeks, Tony I’m sorry it took my awhile to get back to TLT.
Tony Gabrione said
Thank you, Pug! Very much appreciated and great work as always. I have a great interest in bond and rate movement so I find this chart extremely helpful.
pugsma said
FYI all the alt (blue) count targets have been hit:
SP500 3814
QQQ 318
IWM 209
pugsma said
GLD has reached the right shoulder target area of 175 of the potential bullish IHS.
William Zelnis said
THANKS! Was just going to mention that.
pugsma said
Good SP500 TA chart here from Andrew Thrasher.
Shows that SP500 gains likely capped for a few weeks and a pull-back is probable.
https://twitter.com/andrewthrasher/status/1347183740099960832?s=21
pugsma said
This agrees with SP500 larger bull bar above the daily BB study from yesterday, showing gains will be capped and the SP500 will either drop or trade sideways.
pugsma said
So here how this gains capped agrees with either wave count
Primary; break above 3833 to complete minor 3 somewhere below 3929. Then consolidate sideways in a minor 4 for several weeks to a month.
Alt(blue): complete minor 1 leading diagonal below 3833 then drop big in a minor 2 wave.
RB said
At current levels
SPX 2nd day above daily BB
IWM 3rd day above daily BB
Ralf Engel said
what Level spx is needed for invalidation the white/green count?
pugsma said
The minute (4) of minor 3 low is 3663. Thus above 3663 the primary (white/green) count is valid.
pugsma said
But for the primary (white/green) count minor 3 of major [5] is free to ended today at 3824 and the 23%/38% Fib for minor 4 is at 3688/3600.
pugsma said
Seasonally says a dip into mid February, Thus a dip could be minor 4 (primary) or minor 2 (alt blue)
pugsma said
The depth of the dip will decide.
pugsma said
Something interesting brewing into to the close today. I mention it IF we get it.
pugsma said
I will say it could be a positive for those shorting the markets today.
fintechworklab said
+1
pugsma said
Oh it’s going to be close. Bulls can surge into close a negate it.
pugsma said
It DID trigger, shorts rejoice!
I’ll discuss in the SP500 update tonight.
Bill Shepler said
Will the blue count become the primary now?
William Waggoner said
Looks like $NYMO will avoid falling back into the crash zone today.
pugsma said
The NYMO -20 to 0 “crash zone” is ONLY in play on a drop below -20 and attempt to close above it. I keep trying to teach everyone this.
So no this is not the key indicator I’m watching at the close
jrwolansky said
cumulative NYAD closed down with a record ATH in SP500
WaterRock said
Hmmm, SPX & QQQ close at highs but IWM did not. Look forward to tonight’s update!
Bill S. said
I’m thinking it might be QQQ up > 1% with SOX (semis) red.
pugsma said
I was away from my computer and charting system all day today doing work outside my house.
If I was at my computer I would have surely noted on the 15-min chart the dip to 3784 at 1:30pm EST ended precisely at the top of the wedge break-out. That was an awesome ST buy set-up opportunity. Oh well, can’t catch ’em all.
kazoom1618 said
SPX also precisely hit the 50% retrace at that moment – and then the algos kicked in!
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p95302508765&a=869753953&r=1610207152173
pugsma said
Plus there has been this phenomenon of the late Friday afternoon ramp that’s been going on each Friday since the late October low at 3234.
pugsma said
Cobra has three things arguing for significant top soon (could be a little more up first, primary count):
1) SP500 extreme of extreme above its 200-day SMA ( Bears ultimate weapon)
2) SP500 open and closed above its Bollinger band (similar to my large bull bar above BB mentioned yesterday).
3) NYMO turning down near zero line with new SP500 high (ie very weak market breadth).
RB said
Steve, the AD line snapshot you posted shows a -0.03% change for Friday but the line now reads a +0.05%. So no divergence?
Separately, what are your thoughts on the common stock only AD line being a more reliable leading indicator of tops? That one had a divergence Friday. Also back on 9/2 when both regular NYAD and SPX had made a new high simultaneously, the common stock only AD line had already been declining for a couple of weeks.
pugsma said
There are many indicators (as I pointed out calling) for limited gains and a long consolidation to correction period of 4 to 8 weeks.
pugsma said
This panic/euphoria model looks a little overbought…
https://twitter.com/vixsquared/status/1347890428826284033?s=21
pugsma said
Buffett Indicator flashing red…
https://twitter.com/schuldensuehner/status/1348206434396360705?s=21
Debido said
That’s pretty unnerving chart…..
j99becker said
Great analog, Steve!
Ralf Engel said
Your advice seems to play out. Your comparison is very helpful and a good advice for further journey on spx.
Have a good start in the week, great job done, thanks.
MS53 said
👍👍
pugsma said
The dip to 3789 at the open back tested the rising wedge break-out a 2nd time.
Anjali Tewari said
You got your gap down this morning !,
What should we be watching for to discern between white and blue …
pugsma said
3770 pivot area
pugsma said
TWTR is very interesting…I just posted an initial chart on TWTR into the 2021 Custom Chart Archive: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2021/
pugsma said
OK so many subscribers have been asking for me to chart Bitcoin. I just added a chart for GBTC into the 2021 Custom Chart Archive: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2021/
Vamsee Karanam said
throw us a freebie please?
pugsma said
Check out my Twitter @PUGStockMarket
I just put my $GBT charts out there.
I use my Twitter to occasionally provide free content.
Vamsee Karanam said
thank you sir!
quocvunguyen027 said
Are you planning to add a BTC ( bitcoin ) chart this month? Or have intention to do that , thanks sir
pugsma said
BTC is being covered under the 2021 Custom Chart Archive Service using GBTC as a proxy. GBTC TA based chart was published this past Monday.
pugsma said
Just a heads up, the SP500 count I showed above on Sunday for a major [3] wave completing here between 3827 and 3900, than a major [4] correction to 3500 area will become the new alternate (blue).
I’ll stick with the current primary (white/green) minor 3 of major [5] ending between 3827 and 3916. Then a minor 5 correction likely staging above 3650/3700 as the higher probability path.
pugsma said
If the new alternate (blue) count plays out then we could see a blow-off top move of +200 point, in about a week or two at most, to a major [3] = 1.62 [1] target at 4003.
pugsma said
On the 15-min chart Today looks like a sub minuette wave 4-iii triangle with a move up to the 3855 wave iii target next.
pugsma said
Plus we got the Denali “no January tops until AFTER MLK Day” guarantee 😁
pugsma said
I just updated the XLE chart in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive. XLE is signaling what could be tell for the markets.
kazoom1618 said
Great call on WBA, Steve! 20%+
pugsma said
I Love those explosive setups in big dividend stocks!
Anyone in 2021 Custom Chart Archive Service that pulled the WBA trigger below $40 when I first started sharing it should be very happy.
pugsma said
So far the triangle low at 3784 has held on today’s test to 3790.
pugsma said
IWM new highs!!!
pugsma said
If you have been leverage trading the IWM primary wave count you should be should be able to retire soon. $$$
Debido said
Yep! Options on TNA! But not enough to retire. Lol
Denali92 said
Yesterday was an unusual day for the SPX given the close above the upper bollo band on the Friday before opex week and then the gap down and the move lower yesterday. For the last few years, the predominate price action has been for the market to rally in to opex week.
In the attached, I have reviewed this opex January opex period from a variety of perspectives.
https://pugsma.com/denalis-turning-points-2/denalis-2021-turning-points/
Per PUG above, I should have also mentioned MLK day as almost all of the January opex turns have occurred post opex / post MLK, but I must admit I was more focused on the opex data – sorry about that.
Here is my conclusion from the post:
Bottom Line:
Monday’s gap down after Friday’s close above the upper daily bollo band has sent another warning signal to the market, but until there is downside confirmation with multiple consecutive down days and also follow through lower after a BIG down day (greater than 1% drop), one must expect the market will continue to rally and will remain persistent for at least a while longer, if not quite a lot longer.
It may not make a lot of sense to most market historians, technical analysts or value oriented investors, but until there is an actual sell off that turns market sentiment, the path of least resistance is higher. This is simply the way the market operates when it is in a persistent state.
The message from market history is definitely mixed. Persistent markets MUST BE respected, but it should also be noted that of the 15 persistent market periods since 2009:
-7 ended during the opex period,
-3 ended during the very beginning of the month (eg 1-May-19, 2-Sep-20),
-3 ended post the employment report
-2 ended on the 26th of the month (April 2010 and Jan 2018)
For now, PUG has a great feel for the market and his levels and perspective are a very good guide for how to proceed.
-D
pugsma said
Dow Transport new high. The market does NOT top with the transports at a new high.
pugsma said
I love these IWM and QQQ wave counts.
Robert Swaim said
GDX is right at the .618 retrace of the rise from 33.07 to 39.01
pugsma said
Mapping out the sub-minuette degree waves is always a challenge.
Today’s low at 3777 is a 38% Fib of the move up from the 3705 wave ii-(5) of minor 3 low to 3823.
Thus, this pull-back likely the sub-minuette wave 2-iii wave that will test the 38%/50% Fibs at 3776/3764.
Wave sub-minuette wave 3-iii up to new all-time highs would be next.
pugsma said
It’s good to suck in the bears and then rip it.
pugsma said
Bonus intra-day SP-500 15-min chart.
https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/PUG-SP500-15-min-1-12-21-Mid-day.jpg
pugsma said
NYSE A-D line cumulative is looking to close at all-new high today with the SP500 below the Jan 8th record close of 3825. Likely means new highs above 3825 are coming soon.
Relentless Bull market just keeps rotating between sectors each day and destroying those positioned bearish or in cash.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354
pugsma said
I love it when a bullish triangle breaks down to embolden the bears then plays out as bull flag higher 😁
» January 5th, 2021: Year 2021 Premium Service and Custom Service Offer PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog said
[…] Service uses Elliott Wave Theory, channel analysis, Fibonacci extension/retracement, momentum oscillators and chart […]
lauter1 said
Thanks Pug – always helpful and appreciated!
pugsma said
Based on historical stats for the SP500 being up > 1.5% during the first 5 trading days, the SP500 on average will end 2021 up 15% (4320) with 90% probability.
https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1349196915204911104?s=21
pugsma said
AMZN and REGN Charts have been updated in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive
pugsma said
I have this rotation from IWM to QQQ toady. Yesterday is was all about IWM.
A bull market just rotates from sector to sector and keeps going higher.
pugsma said
Love this 2020 analog to 2009 and 1982 start of massive cyclical bull markets:
https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1349366310455676930?s=21
pugsma said
Some traders in “the TA know” are buying the dip the past two days with the new NYSE A-D Line Cumulative making a new all-time closing high yesterday.
pugsma said
AAPL Chart Updated added to 2021 Custom Chart Archive
pugsma said
I just added an initial chart for ABUS to the 2021 Archive
I also updated the JETS chart.
pugsma said
Monthly ROC: More evidence that even If there is some small gains up towards 3916, a corrective consolidation is likely next.
https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1349413324287430657?s=21
pugsma said
CRM is very interesting and thus was just added to the 2021 Custom Chart Archive
pugsma said
Such a great day for doing individual stock charting when the overall market was relative boring but positive!
pugsma said
The people who run the AAII Weekly Sentiment Survey have been struggling the past two weeks with data accuracy.
Last week they first reported Bullish Sentiment had dropped to 37% then latter corrected it to 54%
Now this week we have a 100% Bulls initial report!
Sentiment Survey Historical Data
Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
January 13: 100.0% % %
January 6: 54.0% 19.4% 26.6%
December 30: 46.1% 27.1% 26.8%
December 23: 43.6% 34.4% 22.0%
December 16: 43.4% 30.3% 26.3%
December 9: 48.1% 25.1% 26.9%
December 2: 49.1% 28.3% 22.7%
November 25: 47.3% 25.3% 27.5%
November 18: 44.4% 29.3% 26.4%
November 11: 55.8% 19.3% 24.9%
November 4: 38.0% 30.6% 31.5%
October 28: 35.3% 29.4% 35.3%
October 21: 35.7% 31.2% 33.0%
October 14: 34.8% 29.5% 35.7%
October 7: 34.7% 26.3% 39.0%
September 30: 26.2% 30.7% 43.1%
September 23: 24.9% 29.1% 46.0%
September 16: 32.0% 27.6% 40.4%
September 9: 23.7% 27.8% 48.5%
September 2: 30.8% 27.4% 41.8%
August 26: 32.1% 28.3% 39.6%
August 19: 30.4% 27.2% 42.4%
pugsma said
Just put PLTR into the 2021 Custom Chart Archive.
And I gave it out as free setup on Twitter.
I will trading a lot more individual stocks during 2021 than I did during 2020, so I’ll be active charting stocks for the 2021 CCA Service. I 2020 was an easy money long to trade the indices (SPY, QQQ, IWM). 2021 should be much more difficult in the indices, so looking for other areas to profit.
https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket/status/1349739732893396992?s=20
jrwolansky said
Is the subscription to the custom chart archive only available as an annual subscription, or do you have shorter timeframes available for those who want to ‘give it a try’?
pugsma said
2021 CCA is an annual subscription only. I’ve already charted 10+ stocks for 2021. It will reach 100+ easily during 2021. Plus, I will update the most interesting ones (several times) throughout the year.
kazoom1618 said
I love it when you post a chart that I’ve been following, and your TA agrees with mine!
It really boosts my confidence in the trade (And you always have cleaner targets than I do!)
Thanks, Steve!
William Waggoner said
THCX, ARKK weren’t on my radar at all when you first charted them. Very happy with the CCA service. Thanks Steve.
pugsma said
THCX has been “smoking” not lately! 😁
pugsma said
Just update the BYND Charts on the 2021 Custom Chart Archive
pugsma said
My THCX chart from Oct-Nov to hear on January 2021 has played out to near perfection!
THCX chart just updated in the 2021 Chart Archive.
Denali92 said
With respect to opex week and the SPX / SPY, there is ABSOLUTELY no insight that I can provide….
Only thing I will note, is that the IWM / RUT has maintained its rather amazingly pattern (70+% now) of following a down day with an UP DAY! Until that pattern changes, the market is not going down….
Tuesday’s low was a bit more normal behavior relative to history for an opex week with a GAP DOWN on Opex Monday compared to the Monday lows that were made after Gap Downs in April and June… but otherwise, there is nothing to say…
Next Tuesday and Wednesday post the MLK holiday will be key days – especially if the SPX is still working on an inside week. Inside weeks for opex week are quite rare. Technically, there was one in November 2020 using the SPY price data – which then saw the market break higher.
I did a study a few years ago on opex weeks that were inside weeks and there was NO EDGE at all. About 1/2 the time, the play was to go with the break of the inside week range and the other half was to fade the break after a day or two…. Other than November 2020, I believe the last inside weeks were in 2018. (October – Broke lower and continued lower and February – broke higher, but then the move was faded and the market had a sharp sell off as it was in a very choppy period that did not end till early April)
As I doubt there will be any reason to comment till next week, ENJOY the LONG WEEKEND!
-D
pugsma said
Yet another day of rotation in the markets as small caps and financials along with re-open stocks led the way.
Note: the NYMO closed up near +20 and the NYSE A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high.
Very bullish internals.
pugsma said
PLTR 💰💰💰. 2021 Custom Chart Archive very timely update yesterday.
pugsma said
SP500 200-day up to 3300 today and rising rapidly.
The SP500 at 3785 is 475 points, +14.7% above. Was over 16% a couple weeks back..
Using time, not so much price, to correct the large delta.
kazoom1618 said
SPX 5min:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=t0282395416c&a=670251131&r=1610724679635&cmd=print
Double top target matches 62% rt at 3724
pugsma said
3750 low was a perfect expanded flat wave
wave a: 3823 to 3777
wave b=1.23a: 3777 to 3827
wave c=1.62a: 3827 to 3750
pugsma said
Fits the alt(blue) wave i-ii to start to the minute (5) of minor 3 of major [3] wave up to 4004.
pugsma said
50% Fib from 3823 is at 3743.
pugsma said
Primary (white/green) will place minor 3 at 3827 and the minor 4 23% Fib target is at 3691.
pugsma said
This drop from 3827 to 3750 is only minute (a) of minor 4. Minute (b) bounce now and minute (c) drop to 3691.
pugsma said
The alternate (blue) count makes the most sense for year 2021 per my thinking, as I showed in the years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 comparison last Sunday/Monday. The alternate (blue) will likely some become my primary (white/green) and the primary (white/green) will become the alternate(blue).
MS53 said
Music to my ears !!!
kurt.ove.ler said
Thanks
pugsma said
FB Chart added to 2021 Custom Chart Archive
FB is very interesting here.
kazoom1618 said
I agree – on a day that the indices are dropping, FB is +2%. Good TA!
pugsma said
Here are the IWM and QQQ Chart updates before the close.
Jim Guthery said
Is it possible that 3826.69 is top and we work our way to 3500 now? Or is this number not close enough to 3845?
pugsma said
Yes, it is possible 3827 is the alternate (blue) major [3] top and and major [4] correction to a 23%/38% Fibs of 3583 to 3424 or a -6.8% to -10.5%
Jim Guthery said
In your opinion which would be the more likely outcome coming off a (3) top? I was leaning more towards 38% but I have a tendency to get lost real quick as these moves happen so fast.
pugsma said
The -10.5% correction to the 38% Fib for major [4] at 3424 would not surprise me. The rising 200-day SMA should be in the 3400 area by the time major [4] were to reach that target area.
Jim Guthery said
Thank you for keeping me in the game!
pugsma said
After the bounce from 3750 to 3785, the the primary (white/green) count is set-up for a gap down when the markets open on Tuesday. Target is (y)=(w) at 3708, near the minor 4 wave 23% Fib at 3691.
pugsma said
Also, there is now a potential head and shoulders top on the SP500 15-min chart with head at 3827, average neckline at 3746 and target of 3665.
Vamsee Karanam said
Thanks Steve. Will you turn bearish under 3585-90?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6I8Far2k/
pugsma said
Bearish for a major [4] wave to 3424 below 3663.
pugsma said
IF you want BEARISH you can follow the CITI Bank Strategic 2021 Forecast for a -20% mini-bear market from 3800 to 3000 then back 3800 at years end.
RB said
The daily post commentary is getting increasingly insightful. Love it. Enjoy the weekend
» January 19th, 2021: Premium Service and Custom Chart Archive Service Offer PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog said
[…] Premium Service Sign-Up […]
pugsma said
Do or die time for the primary (white/green). 3801 is precisely and c=a target for minute (x) of the minor 4 wave (w)-(x)-(y) double zig-zag correction and 3798 is the 62% Fib retace.
Above 3801 the SP-500 is very likely headed much higher than 3827 per the alternate (blue) wave count.
pugsma said
Active Investment Managers are leveraged more that 100% Long as of last week Jan 13th.
Date NAAIM Number Mean/Average Bearish Quart1 Quart2 Quart3 Bullish Deviation
01/13/2021 106.76 50 89.81 100.00 107.50 200 39.85
01/06/2021 94.51 0 80.00 100.00 101.25 200 39.11
12/30/2020 82.97 0 65.25 88.25 100.00 200 47.07
12/23/2020 89.11 0 80.00 100.00 100.00 200 44.19
12/16/2020 101.47 0 88.75 100.00 116.13 200 42.33
12/09/2020 106.11 0 89.88 100.00 100.00 200 40.98
12/02/2020 103.17 0 90.00 100.00 100.00 200 38.90
11/25/2020 106.74 0 86.50 100.00 130.00 200 44.54
11/18/2020 106.41 -12 93.19 100.00 107.50 200 44.54
11/11/2020 96.30 0 70.00 100.00 137.50 200 50.26
pugsma said
So far today’s SP-500 price action, VIX drop, NYMO move above zero line and NYSE A-D Cumulative move high all favor the alternate (blue) count move above 3827.
The close matters, so we’ll see if it holds up at 4 pm EST.
pugsma said
Above 3801 now. High probably the Sp500 is headed above 3827 to 3900+
pugsma said
Viva Los Bulls!
pugsma said
Looks like the markets will defy seasonality bias and push for 4000.
As I hinted last week Alt(blue) could soon become the primary wave count above 3827.
pugsma said
The 2021 CCA FB chart is playing out nicely 💰
kazoom1618 said
So is BABA – up 19% since your chart! Ka-ching!
Wbart21 said
ditto on GILD & REGN, thanks Steve!
pugsma said
$
pugsma said
KaZoom and Wbart21 I’m glad you both profiting from the individual chart technical analysis in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive Service.
As I stated last week, I’m really focused on the 2021 CCA service and trading those individual stocks shown there. I think that’s where the biggest $ can made in 2021 vs the indices.
pugsma said
$
pugsma said
I was hoping to get my NFLX chart update out before market close and the earnings. I just added it to the 2021 CCA.
Back on Aug 14th, 2020 I showed the NFLX daily and weekly chart in the 2020 CCA with major [3] complete at $575 and after major [4] consolidation, I was projecting NFLX would reach $607 in a major [5] wave. Now today Jan 19th, 2021 it looks like the major [4] triangle completed at $485 on Jan 12th and a major [5] wave up to a triangle target of $633 (Avg) to $692 (Max) is underway.
Here is the free update on TWTR with the NFLX weekly chart comparison between Aug 14th, 2020 and Jan 19th, 2021.
https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket/status/1351649631734820864?s=20
pugsma said
I made a weekly and monthly NFLX call option trade before the close today.
Hoping it works out 🤞
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1351670862664052737?s=21
kazoom1618 said
Overnight 2.4x ??? You da MAN!
pugsma said
The NFLX earnings option trade was just closed for an overnight gain of 2.5x on the Feb 19th one month options and a 1.2x gain on the Jan 22nd weekly option.
Likely would be more to gain in the Feb 19th options, but I’m being disciplined on my 2021 options trades with I get the directional move I want after earnings.
https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket/status/1351914793691717641?s=20
sef88 said
test thank you
Denali92 said
Opex Monday and Opex Friday gap downs rarely happen in bullish markets, but this market is clearly a bit different right now.
While it could change with the Wednesday and Thursday post opex / post holiday price action, right now the SPX has had its second opex period in a row where the high for the opex period was immediately followed by a gap down, a brief move lower and a BOTTOM followed by a strong rebound back near the highs. (NOTE: This is RARE and surprising Opex period price action)
• In December, it took a few days, but then the market went on to make new highs after the MAJOR Bottom on the Monday post opex.
As for this January opex period, we will not know for certain until Friday, but as I wrote last week, until there is downside confirmation with multiple consecutive down days and also follow through lower after a BIG down day (greater than 1% drop), one must expect the market will continue to rally and will remain persistent for at least a while longer, if not quite a lot longer.
The SPX did follow through lower last Friday after Thursday’s down day, but that was it and we are now already back near the opex week highs after just two consecutive down days for the SPX (but not the MID or RUT which were both up on Thursday).
The market is due a pullback (especially the MID and RUT), but persistent markets like the current one can remain persistent and extended for far longer than most people would expect and history would predict.
• This was the case last summer and has been frequently the case during this bull market, especially since November 2016.
If the SPX gets through this week, there is the FED Meeting next week (26th & 27th), but after that early February is not known as a time for tops as the last MAJOR TOP that occurred in early February was back in 1999 (a 9 day 5 plus % correction…)
For now, all significant surprises continue to be to the upside and that is the direction of least resistance until proven otherwise.
-D
kazoom1618 said
And another Denali:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DNLI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p08614828752&a=874039671&r=1611153119981&cmd=print
Triangle breakout targets +35%
Robert Swaim said
Thanks!
henry maddux said
beautiful
thank you
pugsma said
Really good chart here.
https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/status/1351964377134624773?s=21
pugsma said
Intra-day NYMO only at +10 and below the beak of +15 at 3727 high on Friday, Jan 8th.
pugsma said
Also VIX at 21.50 today still above early Dec VIX lows near 20.
pugsma said
As you can see from the IWM and QQQ wave count updates, the primary (white/green) count pminor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave did not end at 3827 on Friday Jan 8th and is targeting the original minor 3 =2.0*minor at 3916, shown on all the SP500 charts prior to Thurs Jan 14th. Major [5]=[1] at 3972 remains the primary (white/green) count P1-C3 target as it’s been on the charts for 3 months since the major [4] low at 3209.
pugsma said
I just updated the GBTC (Bitcoin Proxy) charts in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive
pugsma said
Note the yellow diagonal line added to the 60-min and 4-hr charts tonight. It reaches back to the 3924 low from late October. The Friday, Jan 15th low at 3750 was right at this yellow uptrend line. It was the 2nd hit of this uptrend line after the first trading day of the new year drop to 3663. Thus, this line is very important in calling the top of this move high. When this uptrend line breaks down, the minor 4 (primary) or major [4] (alt blue) pull-backs are likely underway.
pugsma said
While breaking the yellow uptrend line and 3750 is key to the top call and move lower in minor 4 of major [4], the important level to watch on the upside is 3921. Above 3921, the primary count gives way to the alt (blue) mine higher to 4003.
pugsma said
While all the bullish hysteria was going in IWM, EV stocks, Oil Stocks, etc, the many big cap tech stocks corrected back to near their 200-day SMA’s.
Now traders and investors are waking up to this fact. I’ve been showing this in 2020 and now 2021 Custom Chart Archive for months.
Cha-Ching Cha-Ching for those (like me) that have follows all on in the CCA and made the trades.
dglowry said
Im having my best 12 months ever thanks to your added CCA service Steve. I set up my OTM bull call debit spreads and then relax!. Many thanks
pugsma said
Congrats!
pugsma said
Over 100% leveraged long Bulls at 113%, highest I’ve ever seen.
This should be fun when it comes un-raveled…tick-tock, tick-tock, tick…ding, ding, ding…
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
Date NAAIM Number Mean/Average Bearish Quart1 Quart2 Quart3 Bullish Deviation
01/20/2021 112.93 75 100.00 100.00 119.75 200 36.46
01/13/2021 106.76 50 89.81 100.00 107.50 200 39.85
01/06/2021 94.51 0 80.00 100.00 101.25 200 39.11
12/30/2020 82.97 0 65.25 88.25 100.00 200 47.07
12/23/2020 89.11 0 80.00 100.00 100.00 200 44.19
12/16/2020 101.47 0 88.75 100.00 116.13 200 42.33
12/09/2020 106.11 0 89.88 100.00 100.00 200 40.98
12/02/2020 103.17 0 90.00 100.00 100.00 200 38.90
11/25/2020 106.74 0 86.50 100.00 130.00 200 44.54
11/18/2020 106.41 -12 93.19 100.00 107.50 200 44.54
pugsma said
I love this seasonal SP500 chart AFTER a “new” US President is inaugurated :
Tick-tock…
https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1352344026373115918?s=21
pugsma said
And this…
https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1352340405526925317?s=21
Denali92 said
I do like the Tick, Tock – there are definitely a few warning signs out there – but there has never been the follow through…
The new President chart is an interesting one:
2016 (Trump) – Market bottomed in Nov 2016 and stayed persistent until Summer 2017
2008 (Obama) – Kept going lower till 6-Mar-09
2000 (Bush) – Post election bounce ended in December and first significant rally started at the end of March 2001
1992 (Clinton) – First real pullback occurred from early March 1993 till late April 1993, then the market gradually moved higher
1988 (Bush) -Peaked in early Feb 1989 and had a month long pullback of a little less than 5% and started moving higher in April 1989
1980 (Reagan) – Peaked in December 1980 and final bear market low was not hit until August 1982
1976 (Carter) – Hit a MAJOR high in Jan 1977 and kept falling till March of 1978
1968 (Nixon) -First of the “Nifty Fifty” peaks was in December of 1968 and market did not bottom until May of 1970
1960 (Kennedy) Market stalled in April of 1961, but did not top out until Dec 1961
Overall, a more detailed look supports the chart, but there is a wide disparity, so it really is an averaging out of the different outcomes. BUT I must note that this persistent market has not really followed the seasonality or election charts that closely, as it has just been too persistent and the dip buyers have been always rewarded since November.
The IWM /RUT is the index that continually amazes me up over 50% from the September pullback low and far more than 100% from last March’s lows, and the longest correction since September has just been 1 week.
If there is follow through lower, I will be back early next week with a closer look at what has historically happened both during this time of year and after persistent market rallies have ended.
Have a good weekend!
-D
MS53 said
My understanding of primary vs alternate is that 3921 must be broken above in the Current wave 3 to eliminate the ED and convert the primary to the alternate.
pugsma said
Yep
pugsma said
Actually with today SP500 I’m very likely to down grade the alternate (blue) major [3] top to end here between 3861 and 3921.
pugsma said
Bullish Sentiment Extreme
Tick-Tock…
https://twitter.com/macrocharts/status/1352586811147694081?s=21
pugsma said
There will likely be a day soon, the market gaps down > -1% and falls all day trapping the complacent bulls.
Denali92 said
Agreed!
that is definitely the way most of these persistent market episodes have ended.
-D
pugsma said
FYI the NYSE A-D line cumulative made a move lower yesterday with a new all-time SP500 closing high.
The ingredients are in place for a minor, major or even primary wave top.
pugsma said
Do NOT be complacent here!
pugsma said
A alt (red) P1-C3 top will be making a re-appearance on the charts tonight.
pugsma said
Everyone should review this years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 comparison chart I published at the begging of January.
It predicted at 3845 top to major [3]-P1-C3 and big major [4] drop up next.
https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/PUG-SP500-2009-2010-to-2020-2021-Comparison-1-10-21.jpg
pugsma said
The bottom of the 60-min chart bearish rising wedge yellow trendline is at 3795 and will be at 3805 on Monday.
pugsma said
Tick-Tock….
https://twitter.com/andrewthrasher/status/1352388024324206595?s=21
pugsma said
IWM and QQQ Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock…
Sal said
+1
Debido said
Much Appreciated. Is there a green energy ETF Eqiv? TAN is the solar ETF, and its had a Monster Run… not sure if its chartable?
Change of Administration will push green energy higher?
kazoom1618 said
TAN Monthly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TAN&p=M&yr=19&mn=1&dy=0&id=p31241880574&a=878179958&r=1611342256222&cmd=print
Made it half-way back to its IPO peak
kazoom1618 said
Unlike fossil fuels, uranium has formed a wedge over those yeaas, and recently broke out:
CCO.TO Monthly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CCO.TO&p=M&yr=19&mn=1&dy=0&id=p72851972117&a=559669744&r=1611342003458&cmd=print
Debido said
Thanks for the overview.
pugsma said
I just noticed that the SP-500 weekly RSI indicator as made a negative divergence between the Sept 2nd high at 3588 and now at 3861. That’s quite bearish for a possible “major” wave not just “minor” wave correction soon.
pugsma said
NYMO continues to struggle below zero line and no closes over +20 for almost 2 months.
Narrow market breadth as the SP500 creeps slowly higher.
pugsma said
VIX on average has also gone higher since early December with a slow rising SP500. That’s a VIX positive divergence wrt SP500. Yet potential negative for future SP500 price action.
pugsma said
From a market index perspective now, it’s better to be a boy scout and not a ranger.
Donald Petersen said
Does the DJT provide any guidance as to market direction???
pugsma said
Sure DJT was important if you traded from markets from years 1929 to 2000.
Semi-conductors are the new DJT.
pugsma said
Watch SOXX
Wbart21 said
+1
Donald Petersen said
Thanks
pugsma said
The real money is being made trading my 2021 Custom Chart Archive long sets ups like I showed did FB, AAPL, and AMZN on Jan 13th.
All 3 are up 7 to 10% in less than 2 weeks.
And of course my NFLX call options play last week into earnings
matthastings1 said
PLTR too
pugsma said
Yes and WBA and BYND.
I called about 10 great individual stock long set-up in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive in early January. They have played out to make us who took them major $. 😎
pugsma said
IF you haven’t make your $240 annual fee back plus 10 fold or more from the long set ups posted in the 2021 CCA, then you must be not trading. It’s been grand slam!
Jim Guthery said
YES, so far PLTR has worked out nice for me! THX and $240 is no brainer.
Jim Guthery said
I won’t mention tickers but big pops this morning in one. Just awesome charting!
pugsma said
Yes BYND up 30% at 207 to near a new all-time ($239) high following the path laid out in the 2021 CCA several weeks ago. Just awesome!
pugsma said
I’m continuing to 100% trade my 2021 CCA individual stocks chars and 0% trades on SP500, QQQ or IWM.
I continue to emphasize that the big money to made in during 2021 is with stock picking not with the stretched indices.
pugsma said
Taking big profits out of SPY, QQQ and IWM and using them to found my individual stock trades based on the 2021 CCA charts as worked extremely well.
pugsma said
If you have been trading stocks for more than year 2020 (i.e. you are not a 20 something Robinhood trader), you know that when companies losing money hand over fist and keep popping +20%, +30%, +50% in a single day, then this is a sign of a topping area.
pugsma said
Eg GME from $17 to $159 in a little over 7 days of trading. Short interest the highest on the street at 34% certainly helped that one. Can’t imagine how much some of those short lost. They might be jumping out windows…
Denali92 said
WOW. Your levels for the IWM have been AMAZING! 217.65 was your target and we have hit 217.89 and immediately pulled back.
For at least the 3rd time since November, your charts have had a target that did not seem realistic to me (I remember the first one was around 187), yet the market has headed to almost your exact level – very impressive.
Tick-Tock is definitely the right advice – as one of these days there will be follow through lower. The timing is right per your 2009-2010 analog…. Maybe the FED meeting this week will be the catalyst.
Well done!
-D
pugsma said
Thanks D.
pugsma said
Note bearish rising wedge support from the Oct 3243 low is at 3805.
Break 3805 and you won’t be to find a long left to turn out the lights!
pugsma said
3010 now. Tick-tock
pugsma said
3805 Tick-tock…
pugsma said
3800. Ding-Ding-Ding!
jrwolansky said
Could it be that the algos went below 3800 to take out the stops before turning back up?
pugsma said
No
pugsma said
There are no algo. Humans program the computers. Human emotion still very much alive in the markets today.
Same as it ever was…
pugsma said
Watch the smart big money carry those dip buyers a few rounds now to distribute more of there shares to the dumb money…
Tick-tock…
Wbart21 said
now it’s an issue of minor vs major 4 correct?
pugsma said
Yes
pugsma said
Turn Out the Lights, The Party’s Over…
pugsma said
Today’s little 62 point drop from 3859 to 3797 was nothing.
Wait to see what happens once the smart money finishes their distribution here.
pugsma said
Distribution…
Tick-tock…
Jim Guthery said
Will it take a couple of days to play out?
pugsma said
Time can’t be fully known. Price pays.
pugsma said
In case you are wondering both counts are calling 3861 the top of this near 3 month long move up from 3234.
There is a slight possibility that the primary (white/green) count eek out one more higher high that 3861.
Anjali Tewari said
Are there equal levels for IWM and QQQ
Also – having a lot of trouble with the login – keep getting logged out multiple times a day – anything I can do about that ?
pugsma said
The new blog e-commerce, login/password system has a security timeout not under my control.
pugsma said
The discussion on CNBC is very important right now.
Gamblers! Time for them to pay!
pugsma said
There is only one chair left and music is about to stop!
Jim Guthery said
P2 or 4?
pugsma said
Primary 1 (P1) is not complete.
Primary (white/green) wave count is looking for a minor 4 of major [5]-P1 down to 23%/38% Fibs of 3717/3623 into early March and then a minor 5 wave up to where major [5] = [1] at 3972 into April/May
Klaas-Jan Doornbosch said
so when i have it right we get a last wave up just above 3861 ( 3916 max ?) with neg div before a pulback to 3717/3623 or we have set the top last week and are now declining to 3717/3623?
pugsma said
Yes
kazoom1618 said
From your Jan 14 chart of BYND – its now up 92% – Now that’s a wave 3!
pugsma said
Yep! So much more $ being made in the good looking individual stock set up, while the SP500 had stalled.
pugsma said
Inside the 2021 CCA Service, I’m going to be publish an interesting Technical Analysis updated take on Bitcoin via the GBTC proxy.
There are some analyst who are wildly bullish and others who are wildly bearish. But what’s PUG’s take?
pugsma said
OK I just published in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive service a detailed technical analysis look at GBTC (Bitcoin proxy) across the weekly, daily, 60-min and 15-min time frames.
pugsma said
OK I just spent most of the afternoon update BLNK, TSLA and FB per customer paid updates.
https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2021/
Some subscribers are obviously getting a lot at of this $240 annual 2021 CCA Service. I happy for that and happily spending a good deal of my time on the chart updates.
Chrys said
If NYMO closes below -31.58 is it ‘night, night noodles’ for SPX?
pugsma said
No. There are no definitives for SP500 wrt NYMO level.
I will note that IF the NYMO closes below its lower BB it always a potential SP500 buy trigger.
pugsma said
But NYMO below its BB based SP500 Buy signals are not very reliable when the SP500 in at a local high (or all-time high).
pugsma said
The NYMO did close below its lower BB at -30.81 vs -30.08.
This a technically a valid SP500 Buy trigger, even though the SP500 is only -21 points down from all-time high of 3871.
Sagar Patel said
I have lower BB at -31.08, so still inside
pugsma said
Yes, I misread the -31.08 as -30.08 on the lower BB.
Michael Croghan said
Just an observation for tonight/tomorrow. We just had MSFT reporting after the close today. Tomorrow, besides Fed, we have AAPL, FB, and TSLA reporting earnings AMC on Jan 27. These megacaps are all within striking distance of ATHs. Short interest very low on these with the exception of TSLA.
-Michael
pugsma said
Remember my warning from Thursday, Jan 21st. That day could be here…
Pugsma said
January 22, 2021 at 8:38 am e
There will likely be a day soon, the market gaps down > -1% and falls all day trapping the complacent bulls.
Reply
Denali92 said
January 22, 2021 at 8:45 am e
Agreed!
that is definitely the way most of these persistent market episodes have ended.
-D
Reply
Jim Guthery said
It appears the blue wave is aligning well here with the charts. But I am confused with minor 4 vs. major 4. If minor 4 breaks 3750 it becomes invalid, but the minor 4 bottom is 3725/3629. Does this mean you will readjust charts? I don’t think there is a big difference in the bottom of minor vs. major unless it paints the major 4 50%.
pugsma said
Primary (white/green) count minor 3 wave up is confirmed ended after a break below 3750. But realistically it’s over on a break of Monday’s low at 3797. Those 3735/3629 23%/38% Fibs targets for minor 4 were based on minor 3 ending yesterday at 3861.
RB said
Steve, green count M3 = 2 x M1 = 3887 is what I am calculating? We came pretty darn close yesterday. Interesting day ahead
pugsma said
Minor 1 is 3209 to 3550 = 341 points.
Minor 2 ended at 3234
Minor 3 = 2.0 x Minor 1: 2.0 x 341 = 682
Add 682 to minor 2 low at 3234 = 3916
RB said
Thanks
pugsma said
So far in the pre-market SPY has hit 378.76 vs a low on Monday of 378.46. So the SPX is equivalent is 3801 vs 3797.
Only the cash market matters, but IF the 3797 Monday low falls then it’s a minor 4 (primary) or major [4] (alt blue) wave much lower over then few weeks.
Anjali Tewari said
Monday low has failed on IWM in pre-market – but SPY and QQQ are still slightly above …
pugsma said
FYI GME (Game Stop) hit a early morning (5:47am EST) high of $367, now $208.
Apparently the Big Hedge funds covered their shorts on Tuesday for a $5 Billion loss!!!
pugsma said
Aren’t you glad you did trust your $ to a Hedge Fund and invest on your own.
It seems every year, we here about another Hedge losing Billions or returning negative equity while the SP-500 continues to gain. Why would anyone trust them with their $
Anjali Tewari said
It’s amazing what is happening on GME – small retail fighting big boys …
Looks like the focus has shifted to AMC now … the short squeeze is on in full force this morning ….
pugsma said
I just added an interesting BA (Boeing) chart to the 2021 Custom Chart Archive.
pugsma said
SP500 broke below Monday’s 3797 low.
Minor 3 top at 3871 likely in place now.
Minor 4, 23%/38% Fib targets as shown on my charts are 3725 to 3629
pugsma said
Such a classic ending diagonal for the minute (5) of minor 3 wave.
pugsma said
The bottom of the 60-min chart light blue channel is around 3735, close to 3725 23% Fib
pugsma said
Remember that the minor 4 wave lower will at least be 3 waves.
Minute (a) down now.
Then a minute (b) bounce to a 50% Fib of (a).
Then a minute (c) down again.
Jim Guthery said
Thanks
pugsma said
3767 looks like it could be then minute (a) of minor 4 low.
Now the minute (b) bounce to a 50% Fib of 3819.
Then (c)=(a) down to 3715, near the 23% Fib of 3725.
Robert Warmington said
That seems to be a pretty fast drop for a decline that should last into March.
pugsma said
Only if it’s the alt(blue) major [4] would this decline last a few weeks to a month.
Primary (white/green) count minor 4 could be done in 2 to days to a week.
Price is paramount not times.
I don’t know how often I’ve had to say them at here over the past decade.
Robert Warmington said
Gotcha, thanks for being patient with some of us here. You have said this many times.
Jim Guthery said
it really started on Monday, correct? That would put us almost a week anyway, not just two days.
pugsma said
Always remember the 2nd mouse gets the cheese!!!
pugsma said
The first mouse is taking the bait and it’s going to get his head cut off. 🙂
pugsma said
All these first mice saying “it only dips once; I’m safe to buy here”
Dinesh Murgai said
?
pugsma said
I’ll let a long time subscriber explain it.
Chrys said
3 moves down on a correction. Don’t buy on ‘A’; buy on ‘C’.
pugsma said
Nice summary Chyrs
kazoom1618 said
This has been a great opportunity to unload some stinky old cheese!
pugsma said
If you are in favor of a bigger correction that 3725.
I can see a potential head and shoulders with head at 3871, neckline at 3750 to 3767 and target of 3629. That’s right at the 38% Fib.
Vamsee Karanam said
Thanks Steve!
Transports seems to be leading…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JWHtUIlw/
Sal said
+1
Alan W said
In a ABC wave decline don’t buy the A drop (first mouse), wait for the C drop (second mouse).
MS53 said
Trying to sell a membership. Can you buy the CCA service, but not the Premium service ?
pugsma said
Yes. A few subscribers (less than 5%) are members of the 2021 CCA service only.
However more than a third of premium service subscribers are also members of the 2021 CCA service.
MS53 said
Thanks.
Jim Guthery said
Do both, you will not regret it!
hinge said
Steve Are you going to discount/pro rate the CCA as the year goes on to members not yet joined?
pugsma said
Probably. But why wait. So many great charts have already played out to big profits.
Full year $240 (offered Dec 2020-Feb 2021)
Q2-Q4 $180 (will be offered near March 31st)
Q3-Q4 $120 (will be offered near June 30th)
Q4 $60 (will be offered near September 30th)
pugsma said
Everyone should look at how this 2021 CCC AAPL 60-min chart from Jan 13th to Jan 27th played out.
https://pugsma.com/2021/01/27/january-27th-2021-2021-custom-chart-archive-example-aapl/
RICHARD GUNDZIK said
I was hesitant, but the chart for BYND paid for my subscription 100-fold and still going.
Jim Guthery said
I know right, and PLTR as well!
Robert Kim said
And the upcoming setup for GBTC will as well. 🙂
sai aluri said
Every one of those custom charts is spot on. The subscription fee is nothing compared to the benefits.
William Waggoner said
I have played several of the CCA recommendations. Very happy with the results. Got paid handsomely today on NOK which I bought back in late October 2020 after Steve posted his TA on it.
pugsma said
Congrats Bill. That NOK chart was requested and paid for by a European subscriber last fall.
Sal said
Hi Steve,
I think these charts fit better than the charts from the 26th with the real price action developing. The IWM touched 217.9 white/green path and QQQ touched 330.3 blue path, both 1 point over your count and then went down. Could them now follow one green and the other one blue path? Amazing work…Thanks a lot.
pugsma said
Might be seeing a contracting triangle minute (b) of minor 4 wave; so far oscillating between 3767 and 3811.
greggcreek said
For those following GBTC (bitcoin), there is an ETF called ‘The Bitcoin Fund’ on the Canadian Market (TSX) called QBTC.to ($Can) or QBTC/U.to. It is an approved trading ETF security.
fintechworklab said
Be on the lookout for OBTC (Osprey Bitcoin Trust) which should be released very soon. OBTC boasts much lower fees than GBTC – 49bps vs 200bps.
kazoom1618 said
Oh good – so I can directly convert my snow pesos to bitcoins! (I almost typed ‘bitcon’ LOL)
pugsma said
Looking at more detail on the SP500 5-min chart, I’m see 5 waves down from 3871 to 3759. So we are still likely in the minute (a) wave of minor 4. Minute (a) should be a 5-wave drop. The minute (b) a 3-wave rises. Finally minute (c) another 5-wave drop.
pugsma said
The SP500 15-min chart us building a potential positive divergence on the MACD and RSI.
fintechworklab said
thank you for the real-time updates – it is not taken for granted.
orion.colorado said
Agreed, thanks Steve
pugsma said
FYI, I have idea for the SP500 primary (white/green) count where have been seeing an on going minor 4 expanded flat wave since the Friday, Jan 8th high at 3827.
Minute (a) was 3827 to 3759.
Minute (b) was 3750 to 3871.
Now minute (c) = 1.62*(a) at 3746.
pugsma said
Definitely a reason possibility here with the NYMO close well below it’s lower BB and near -70.
Also the VIX will like close above its upper BB.
Both of these conditions are potential SP500 Buy Triggers, IF they close today this way.
pugsma said
You always to keep monitor things like this on the NYMO and VIX because it can help you decide when a wave lower is potentially near.
I was hard to understand why the NYMO was so weak for so long with the SP500 gaining.
But IF minor 4 has been an on going flat or expanded flat wave over the past few weeks, then it makes since that the NYMO was not rising. Now this big drop could be the final 5-wave flush to complete minor 4.
pugsma said
This 3746 area is all at the lower light blue channel support on the 60-min chart that has held since the 3512 low in early November.
pugsma said
23% Fib for minor 4 wave just about it at 3732 vs 3725.
Denali92 said
Still 30 minutes to go, but I thought I would highlight that the SPX is closest to the worst FED day in my records – which go back to 1998.
In September 2011, the market peaked on the day before Fed day and fell 2.9%. The market bounced late the next day after falling a further 4.5% and then rallied for a few days before heading lower in to the final corrective bottom in early October 2011.
December 2007, the market fell 2.7% on Fed day. It fell a further 3.1% over the next week before bouncing during December opex week. It then headed lower again in January.
March 2001 is another day when the SPX fell 2.7%, but this was after a long downtrend and the market made a significant bottom 2 days later.
The only other FED day that I have that was down more than 2% is in December 2000. The SPX had its post election peak the previous week. On Fed day it fell 2.0% and then it fell another 2.9% the next day and bottomed 2 days after the Fed day. It then bounced in to the end of the year (29-Dec) back to near the Fed Day highs. The 2001 market sell off did not start until the 31-Jan-2001 Fed Meeting.
I will post tomorrow in more detail on potential historical analogs. Most significant January sell offs last in to early February, BUT the 2020 sell off which started on the Wednesday post opex (22-Jan-20) and lasted 9 days until Friday, 31-Jan-20.
Pug has done a GREAT job with his Tick, Tick, Tick warnings…. and his view that this correction will be an ABC correction fits well with MOST corrections that start in January…. as none continued past the 2nd week of February (2018 had a 26-Jan-18 top and a bottom on Friday, 9-Feb-18. This was the 11.8% Vixplosion correction)
The next two weeks could be quite interesting.
-D
Denali92 said
I should note that all of those FED days were in more bearish markets that had seen their highs well before the particularly Fed day fall.
I am not aware of a BIG down FED day after the SPX had posted a 52 week high the day before, so what is occurring today is most likely a historically unprecedented Fed day.
-D
Laura A. Young said
Thank you for your informative market technical notes, seasonality and timely “tick, tick, tick” notes. I adjusted my positions over the last few days — remained calm (even cheering a bit yesterday) because i was ready and saw good profits — thank you!!
pugsma said
Congrats! Glad to have helped.
Klaas-Jan Doornbosch said
abc almost finished?
pugsma said
If you look at the charts and read the text of the Jan 27th update, then you will see that the primary (white/green) count has a minor 4, minute (a)-(b)-(c) complete at 3732.
The alternate (blue) count has on compared minor A of major [4] at 3732. Now in minute B up to the 50% Fib of 3802 and then another leg down below 3732 for minor C to C=A at 3663
Klaas-Jan Doornbosch said
yes thats what i meant 😉 I am dutch so maybe thats the problem. My question was at 3802 or the abc correction was over and we can decline again ( when the blue count is correct)
Thanks !!!
pugsma said
You should NOT focus the alternate (blue) counts.
The primary (white/green) wave is always the highest probability path.
As I’ve said here for a decade plus now. I ONLY trade the primary wave count.
pugsma said
If you look at the year 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 chart comparison, then you will see that the late January to early February year 2010 drop for major [4]-P1 broke below the 50-day SMA on day 3 of the drop (which is today).
Thus, the fact that the SP-500 held the 50-day SMA (3714) and has moved up to 3800 already makes my primary (white/green) count headed above 3871 more likely than the alternate (blue) count dropping to 3663.
pugsma said
Also the 62% Fib retrace is at 3818. Above 3818, it’s extremely likely primary (white/green) minor 5 wave of major [5]-P1-C3 wave up to 3972 is underway.
pugsma said
Also, this wave is going straight up, so more like the initiation of minor 5 wave impulse and NOT a minor B corrective.
pugsma said
Everyone here who positioned long with me late yesterday when I correctly identified the primary (white/green) minor 4 wave expanded flat wave real-time here in the comment section should be very happy and profitable this morning. 🙂
pugsma said
Cha-Ching, Cha-Ching.
orion.colorado said
+1
Jim Guthery said
You saved me both ways, Monday when the market broke and bounced and up yesterday! Best charter out there!
Anjali Tewari said
So based on your charts it seems that primary for SPY is that wave 4 is complete – but for iwm it needs to fall more … am I reading this right
pugsma said
IWM low is 207.29 vs the 23% Fib at 202.67.
IWM is not required to hit its 23% Fib.
IWM minor 4 could be over at 207.29 or could correct a little more when SP500 as it’s minute (2) of minor 5 correction.
pugsma said
IF the NYMO and VIX closed where they are right now, then the NYMO Based SP500 Buy and VIX Based SP500 Buy signals would be be confirmed.
pugsma said
The close is all that matters on those signals, so we will wait and see…
pugsma said
More gains ahead IF we get these bullish NYMO and VIX closes and SP500 Buy Confirmations end of today.
But as usually the biggest one day gains are accomplished when buying the triggers, not the confirmations.
TIMOTHY CREEDON III said
Klaus
Stick with the Primary.
The “tick-tock” message this week warned of frothyness/overbought (A-D divergence, bullish sentiment extended, etc). All ‘suggested’ a pull back. Bam Result–a one day somewhat massive break.
The clue was late afternoon when PUG identified the fib retracement might/had occurred and thus Primary held at #4, a 23-38% fib retracement.
PUG cant/wont tell you to cover shorts and/or go long, but did, pretty much, say so!!
Now pretty much a rally to 3970ish
Hope this helps.
Keep studying. It will come.
Klaas-Jan Doornbosch said
thanks all!
Partagas said
https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1354538424078766081/photo/1
pugsma said
I have to say the VIX up +61% yesterday was WAY out of portion. Must have been some big boys short volatility.
Partagas said
Only instance in that regard I guess. Never saw an increase like this before. These GME, AMC etc moves might be exaggerating it, but it is what it is. Market is always right.
Partagas said
He has one more stat:
https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1354538424078766081
Partagas said
“$VIX up +40% today (lower panel). Here are others since 2009. Looks like a lot of bounces in $SPX that then get sold (red circles), with one exception (green arrow)”
Can’t post the exact link I guess..
Vamsee Karanam said
Steve, kudos on the longs from yesterday’s low.
Now that we are above 3818 (fib), could this still be in play?
Just testing if my lines and patterns are valid…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FcTKhJ9t/
pugsma said
That’s the alt(blue) major [4] wave count, but it’s losing probability here between the 62% and 78% Fibs of 3818 to 3840 for minor B.
Vamsee Karanam said
Thanks Steve. Next 26 hrs will be super interesting then!
pugsma said
Next wise to put a time on it. Use price levels and key indicators as your guides.
Vamsee Karanam said
Roger that!
Vamsee Karanam said
Am gonna keep staring at $ and VIX tonight/tomorrow… 🙂
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Rueg4kE2/
Denali92 said
So another instance of NO follow through after a big drop – so the persistent market is still intact. Though for once, the RUT is lagging, which is different than we have seen after BIG drops. Both PUG and Cobra’s indicators called today’s rally and it has happened. It also confirms that yesterday’s fall was not related to the FED (otherwise there should have been follow through lower and a possible bounce today), it was just time for those Tick Tock warnings to be realized with a sharp one day sell off.
MAJOR TOPS and BIG Sell offs do not occur that frequently in January. In fact, since 1998, there have only been 7 January tops and sell offs of greater than 3.6%. NONE of these were a final high for a rallying market. The 5 tops that have occurred since 2009 all occurred between the 19th and 26th of January.
• The shortest correction was the 9 day 3.7% one in 2020 that ended on 31-Jan-20, and it is the only one that terminated in January.
The two things I wanted to highlight with respect to the other 6 corrections are as follows:
• Other than the one in 2018 that had a peak on 26-Jan-18, all of the January corrections had a sharp bounce in the last few days of January – only the one in 2000 lasted for more than a few trading days. (ie. they were ABC corrections per yesterday’s comment)
• The SPX then fell further in February, but all of the runs lower, except for the one in 2000, ended between the 2nd and 8th of February.
For now, we will just need to wait to see if this was just another quick correction like the ones that ended on the Monday post December opex, on 4-Jan and on opex Friday in January or whether it develops in to something more significant. I have no strong historical evidence either way for the SPX. But by tomorrow or the latest on Monday, it should become clearer if the SPX is going to go lower and make a February bottom or whether yesterday was just another quick corrective sell off that will allow the rally to resume.
-D
orion.colorado said
$NYMO treading water around the -40 mark, could be interesting
orion.colorado said
“make things”
Jeffrey Robinson said
I’m not one who thinks the selling is over, but I remain open minded. They will have to take out the all time highs to convince me. I liked more downside to form a proper wave 4, that could last a few days longer.
pugsma said
Flats and Expanded Flats are “proper” and common in a wave 4.
PUG’s Simplified Elliott Wave Tutorial
https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/pug-elliott-wave-technical-analysis-tutorial.pdf
Jeffrey Robinson said
I did take the long yesterday so thanks for that 💰. I just took profits today (too soon, maybe) lol.
pugsma said
Lowest Bullish Weekly Sentiment since Oct 28th, 2020 when this rally from 3234 began.
That’s not bearish!
Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
January 27: 37.7% 24.0% 38.3%
January 20: 42.5% 23.0% 34.5%
January 6: 45.2% 23.1% 31.7%
December 30: 46.1% 27.1% 26.8%
December 23: 43.6% 34.4% 22.0%
December 16: 43.4% 30.3% 26.3%
December 9: 48.1% 25.1% 26.9%
December 2: 49.1% 28.3% 22.7%
November 25: 47.3% 25.3% 27.5%
November 18: 44.4% 29.3% 26.4%
November 11: 55.8% 19.3% 24.9%
November 4: 38.0% 30.6% 31.5%
October 28: 35.3% 29.4% 35.3%
pugsma said
The NYMO did close back inside its lower BB at -39 vs -46, confirming its SP500 Buy signal.
Partagas said
So did Vix I guess Steve, no?
pugsma said
Yes the VIX closed back below its upper BB.
You can always check the NYMO and VIX real-time with this link: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print
Partagas said
Thank you.
kazoom1618 said
Also note that you can change the time range of that chart by altering the URL: for example change “mn=9” to “mn=3” (3 months)
Michael Croghan said
Thank you so much Steve for your hard work.
Anjali Tewari said
So at this point – looks like it do or die for blue count … if it breaks 3725 then will that confirm the blue count ?
pugsma said
Just just updated GBTC (Bitcoin Proxy) for the 2021 Custom Chart Archive subscribers.
sk001 said
thanks Steve .. for the timely update
pugsma said
You are welcome.
It’s a lot charts to keep with in the 2021 CCA.
pugsma said
On the SP500, the drop form 3831 to 3742 was a 88% Fib retracement.
pugsma said
Also, a red VIX closed today would be double confirmation of the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal
pugsma said
Something potential very interesting and potentially very bullish for the SP500 is developing.
Any close today with the SP500 below 3751 and the NYMO above -64 sets up a +DIV on the NYMO below the highly oversold area of -40. That can be a powerful SP500 Buy setup.
Jim Guthery said
What about the break of spx 3732?
pugsma said
Exactly what’s need to setup the potential +DIV on NYMO at the close today.
Jim Guthery said
Ok, so breaking Wed’s low of 3732 is irrelevant and doesn’t set up major 4?
pugsma said
Nope. Shallowest Minor 4 target was 23% Fib at 2725.
Jim Guthery said
what is the lowest we can go to stay in minor 4?
pugsma said
3550. The minor 1 high.
pugsma said
A simple minor 4 wave, minute (a)-(b)-(c), where (c)=(a) at 3692 was just hit.
pugsma said
Also holding above the wave 4 of previous degree, in this case wave minute (4) if minor 3 at 3663, is a very typical for a minor 4 target.
pugsma said
AAPL near its rising 50-day of 128 and FB at its rising 200-day 153.
pugsma said
Remember that this wave 4 pull-back is the final good opportunity of year 2021 on route to 4000 to 4300.
pugsma said
I just updated charts for both PLTR and MSFT in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive
Denali92 said
PUG has made some good points on the potential bottom here. There are definitely two ways to look at the bottom potential.
1) All corrections since the March 23rd bottom have been reasonably short and since November every large down day has resulted in a strong bounce the next day and other than this week, that big down day has seen the market head higher the next day.
• The SPX corrections since March have only seen the SPX trade below the lower bollo band in two instances. The September correction for one day (though it was not quite the final low) and the October correction for three days.
• The SPX has traded at the lower bollo today, so that could be the end of the correction or close to it.
• The January 2020 correction just had a trade down to the lower bollo on the last day of the month before heading higher in February to those significant Feb opex highs. The current price action also has quite a few similarities to the Jan 2020 corrective price action. On 31-Jan-2020, the SPX was down almost 60pts and 1.8% It gapped up and WENT on Monday, 3-Feb-2020. (The January 2020 and January 2021 monthly candles are remarkably similar)
2) On the other hand, the shortest correction since March was the 7 day 8.2% correction in June.
• The other two corrections were September’s 22 day 10.9% correction and October’s 18 days 8.9% correction.
• Additionally, today triggered the lower bollo study that I published in September. It did not prove accurate back then, but after 60 trading days above the lower bollo, it generally takes multiple days of trading below the lower bollo for the SPX to form a bottom. (emphasis on the generally!)
• The shortest January correction since 2009 was the 9 day one in 2020 that bottomed at the lower daily bollo and the longest was the 17 day one in 2010 that saw a 9.2% correction and an 88% retrace of the November to January rally.
• Lastly, when the market is persistent, especially as the RUT has been, the market has a tendency to correct to the 20 week MA, which is near 3580 on the SPX right now.
PUG has had a great feel for the market and his Tick Tock warnings have been spot on.
From a historical perspective that takes in to account the January price action since 2009, one would expect this current correction to last certainly in to next week and possibly till as late as Thursday, February 11th and the SPX should trade below the lower daily bollo band for a few days as well as target the 20 week MA.
BUT, per the first point, every pullback of this market since the October bottom has been bought quickly and aggressively, so I would not be at all surprised if the same thing occurred with this pullback. I also should note that the market has not followed the historical patterns all that closely since last March and when the markets are persistent, the corrections are shorter and shallower than history would predict.
For me, the biggest question is concerning sentiment. Has the fall since Tuesday been enough to re-set sentiment or is more time and lower prices needed like in September and October to provide the appropriate sentiment re-set?
As always, the historian in me is more cautious, even if I am well aware that this market has not followed the historical bottoming patterns all that well since the March low, save the pre election bottom.
If relevant, I will be back on Monday with a full run down of the 7 January corrections since 1998.
Have a good weekend,
-D
Wbart21 said
Having you back posting is a treasure!
pugsma said
At the close, the VIX closed above its upper BB and the NYMO below its lower BB. Both of those SP500 Buy triggers have been reset.
pugsma said
Also not +DIV on the NYMO wrt SP500, thus this opens the door for a further SP500 drop.
pugsma said
Notice my years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 comparison chart made and posted on Jan 10th is playing out to near perfection.:
So far this years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 comparison it playing out perfectly with the recent top of major [3]-P1 at 3871 vs the 3845 prediction made on Jan 9th, 2021. Now a correction for major [4]-P1 down to 3507 is predicted per the year 2009-2010 comparison followed by a major [5]-P1 rally to 4142.
pugsma said
While I’m still favoring my primary (white/green) wave count that I’ve had since the September 3209 low, the odds for the alternate (blue) that following the years 2009-2010 comparison chart are now at least virtually equal to the primary.
pugsma said
The SP500 is down nearly -5% and there is a risk of another -3% to -7% to 3617 to 3451.
lauter1 said
For what its worth, thinkorswim is showing NYMO at -60, and stockchart link just refreshed also showing -60. Maybe we have the positive divergence?
https://www.screencast.com/t/SRuZqfii8eX
Big thanks to Pug for all the live updates. Have a great weekend.
pugsma said
That’s a nice surprise.
A two day NYMO +DIV wrt the SP500 from oversold below -60 often leads to a SP500 rally. We’ll know Monday morning…
droc14 said
Hi All –
Looks like final tape shows a + NYMO divergence. Have a good weekend all.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&w=990&w=990&w=990&cmd=print
pugsma said
Really good video by Tony Dwyer on how you can use the recent big drop in the NAAIM Exposure index to help with understanding this market correction.
https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1355559463915294720?s=21
pugsma said
Mean while overnight here in Chicago…
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1355885157908164612?s=21
MS53 said
Thanks for all these videos. Looks like major [2] was a flat and [4] was a simple ZZ, so guideline of alternation has already been satisfied in the primary count, right ?
pugsma said
Major [2] was a zig-zag
MS53 said
Thank you.
Jeffrey Robinson said
Thanks, Steve. “Sell in May and go away” or “buy Yom Kippur, sell Passover” support your theory for the key peak in April/May.
kazoom1618 said
We Canucks use “Buy when it snows, sell when it goes”
pugsma said
But you live in FL in the winter now. So I guess you never “buy”. LOL
kazoom1618 said
Sorry not this year – the land borders to the USA are closed – so I’m enjoying the snow with you!
Not really enjoying, as Ontario also closed all ski hills. Duh.
pugsma said
Oh wow! We are still living in COVID Hell.
Let’s hope we get to > 70% vaccinations by the summer and get this behind us!
pugsma said
I have to say one of the big negatives with all this GME, AMC, attention is that the online brokers (like ETrade) can’t seem to handle the new user and trading volume and I’m often unable to get into to my account to place trades.
droc14 said
Noticed the same w AMTD as well.
Partagas said
+1.. Happened with Fidelity this morning. Annoying.
pugsma said
Keep in mind that that wave 4’s love to become triangles.
For the primary (white/green) count, the minor 2 wave was a deep (88% Fib) zig-zag correction. So a minor 4 shallow (holding between the 23% Fib and 38% Fibs) consolidation triangle for a few weeks between 3684 and 3871 would fit nicely with the guideline of alternation.
MS53 said
Your 3694 bottom call on Friday got me 75 SPX points. Thanks Steve.
pugsma said
3972 – 3694 = 278. Plenty more meat on the bone.
pugsma said
Let the Big Dogs eat!
Rodney said
Woof, woof, woof!
Vamsee Karanam said
Cross roads…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1G56mroB/
Denali92 said
On Friday, I said I would be back with more info on the 7 January corrections since 1998, but as there was no new corrective low to start February and the SPX is up so much today, there does not seem right now much point in providing any further perspective on those January corrections,
For now, with today’s strong rally, “recency” is prevailing, as the pattern that emerged last year (short corrections and then gap up and rally after big down days – just like what occurred last Wednesday / Thursday as well) is being followed. Last week may have been a repeat of the January 2020 correction (9 day 3.7% correction) which ended at the lower daily bollo on 31-Jan-2020, which is very similar to what occurred last week – though this 2021 correction is, so far, 4.6% in just 3 days.
The first of Feb is quite frequently a strong up day – even in most of those 6 corrective periods, but this is stronger than most.
-D
pugsma said
NYMO closed at -27.
No failure allowed at the zero like this time. Need to see the NYMO close above +20 within the next couple days to confirm primary (white/green) wave count for the minor 5 wave up to 3972. Minute (2) within minor 5 might just be a small intraday dip.
pugsma said
I saw this potential bullish set-up on BABA today but didn’t have time until tonight to draw it up.
BABA Earning before the market opens, so we could know soon if it plays out.
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1356412129574793218?s=21
BZ said
Chart looks great, Thanks you for the update. 329 would be a dream. The $300 weekly calls traded as low as .30 today.
pugsma said
JPM agrees with PUG SMA. You should have bought recent SP50”0 dip and the VIX spike.
Nice Positive returns 1, 3, 6, and 12 months out. In fact the1 month is up 100% of the time with an average return of +4.8%, which puts the SP500 back at the all-time high of 3871 by the end of February.
https://twitter.com/macrocharts/status/1356573083562344448?s=21
pugsma said
A Red VIX close today is a double confirmation of the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy trigger setup from Friday’s close.
pugsma said
SP500 at 3818 is well above the 62% Fib at 3804.
Giddy Up!
pugsma said
Let US Big Dogs Eat!
pugsma said
Let the little dogs now chase.
droc14 said
looks like a decent IHS forming on the 15 minute with the 3694 low and high at 3830 from last week. Thoughts Steve?
pugsma said
Nope. It’s not stopping until above 3871.
pugsma said
Bears are trapped, scared bulls now chasing
pugsma said
This Big Dog (Boy) market.
pugsma said
Buy the gap ups to 4457.
pugsma said
For the alternate (Blue) the 3694 becomes the major [4] low.
Major [5]=[1] target raised to 4457 !!!
pugsma said
We got the Bears necks pinned to the ground. Squeeze…
MS53 said
Weekly RSI 9 put in a bottom last Friday at 56.81. Now up over 64. Very valuable tool for multiweek swings, right down to one or two week rips.
pugsma said
How about the SP500 Bullish percentage dropping to near 50% last Friday. Similar to Sept and Oct 2020 drops that set a 3 month bottom.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX
pugsma said
Updated the BABA Chart in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive.
pugsma said
FYI, I have removed the password protection from the 2020 Custom Chart Archive.
It’s free…enjoy!
https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2020/
pugsma said
For the alternate (Blue) the 3694 becomes the major [4] low.
Major [5]=[1] target raised to 4457 and that’s a +16% gain from right here at 3832.
It’s now time to be aggressive, NOT cautious like the week before last when I correctly called tick-tock, tick-tock.
Now it’s Giddy Up!
pugsma said
money, money, money…Money Supply!!!
https://twitter.com/NDR_Research/status/1356635031700135943?s=20
pugsma said
Such an incredible new impulse wave off the 3994 low. Still in minute (1) of minor 5
Wbart21 said
Fact that you held firmly to primary during minor vs major 4 debate, extremely impressive/profitable.TY!
greggcreek said
Note to new subscribers – pay attention to a PUG ‘giddy-up’ call, it is a very positive indicator. (Coming from a 10yr+ subscriber)
MS53 said
Greggcreek as in “jump the creek” ?
greggcreek said
Hi MS53 – Greggcreek is a place in Northern BC (British Columbia – Canada) where I have my ‘Gold mine’ and made a few $$.
pugsma said
Look at those year end 2021 targets on the alternate (blue) count that should likely now become the primary count… $$$
pugsma said
FYI the intra-day NYMO is currently above the all-important zero level.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print
pugsma said
NYMO closed at -0.13, so close to zero.
pugsma said
I’m done for today.
Stocks Up! Boiler Up! (Purdue Basketball now ranked #24)
pugsma said
Yet Another chart calling a key market bottom last Friday, Jan 29th.
https://twitter.com/macrocharts/status/1356935468848406530?s=21
pugsma said
QQQ looks to open at a new all-time high above 330.32 😎
pugsma said
The great news about the 3694 bottom is that we can set out index based investment accounts on cruise control now for the next several months.
We can now focus squarely on trading individual stocks within the 2021 Custom Chart Archive Service to supplement our main portfolio gains.
kazoom1618 said
RUN daily – basing at uptrend line and 50 dma:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RUN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=t4635965406c&a=882503729&r=1612364154719&cmd=print
Room for +40% retrace
pugsma said
Was looking to chart RUN soon too. Looks like a juicy long setup.
pugsma said
VIX is dropping today along with the SP500 dropping. That’s a bullish SP500 setup
pugsma said
This looks like a wave iv-(1) within minor 5 up. Target for v-(1) at 3871.
pugsma said
For all of your that followed me into BABA with the the left shoulder holding $152 yesterday, we are getting paid up 5% today at $267.
Break above the $270 neckline to really get paid on the move up to the ISH target of $329 (a 22% gain above the $270 neckine).
Let’s go!
Robert Swaim said
I did and thanks!
Don Patterson said
yes i did thx
RICHARD GUNDZIK said
Me too
Klaas-Jan Doornbosch said
yes with calls Nov 410 at 6 yesterday
pugsma said
Damn just one subscriber out of hundreds?
I think more free Twitter followers trust my individual stock charts!
I’ll be more emphatic on the next chart!
John Marcos said
I bought yesterday. Thanks!
pugsma said
OK now we have 3. I feel much better. 🙂
henry maddux said
Already had some and doubled up. Great work.
BZ said
Had a sizeable position of feb 5 calls which were pretty worthless after ER, but bought longer dated calls in BABA yesterday. Thanks for updating!
William Waggoner said
I already had a position in BABA and added to it after your update… Thanks,
pugsma said
How about my BABA Chart posted on Dec 24th, at the exact bottom of $211.
Subscribers to the 2020 CCA should be doing well on that buy point too. 🙂
https://i1.wp.com/pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/PUG-BABA-daily-12-24-20.jpg?ssl=1
kazoom1618 said
And don’t forget your TWTR $45 backtest – now up 20% in 3 weeks 🙂
hinge said
I did options play 200% gain when they expire . Thx
pugsma said
A subscriber asked me via about Cobra sticking to his call that the SP-500 owes a lower low that 3694.
I like Cobra’s stats. What I find is that his SP500 (SPY) stats are often good for a short-term trade day or two. But often time is stats don’t work out well calling Intermediate to Long-term bottoms. Not a knock, just what I’ve seen with this work over 10+ years.
Denali92 said
When the market is persistent, like it is now and has been a lot in the last few years, Cobra’s bull stats (ie. expecting the market to go higher….. like his weekly higher high stats) are working extremely well, but his BEAR ones are not that accurate…. as few bearish things are working….
I think he had one for yesterday that had a 67% prediction of closing lower on the day – clearly that did not happen….
It is just the way this market is right now…. Recency and persistency are dominant and I really believe it is only the bull stats (like the NYMO lower bollo set up and the VIX upper bollo set up) that provide an edge right now.
The bear stats might work, but they are just as likely to fail right now…. One of these days that will change…. just not right now.
-D
pugsma said
Here’s a quick intra-day SP500 15-min chart update.
William Waggoner said
Thanks for these updates Steve.
pugsma said
I’ve been asked chart F and GM stocks for the 2021 CCA. So I’ve busy looking into their charts right now. Interesting, say you?
pugsma said
My late Father-in-law worked as an Industrial Engineer with FORD (F) for 40+ years.
My wife and I drove nothing but Fords for 20+ years. Still miss my 1990 Special Edition 35th Anniversary ThunderBird Super Coupe with the Super Charged engine. All 4 of my kids were given Fords Fusions as college graduation gifts.
Now after buying my 2016 Tesla Model S, I don’t think I’ll ever drive a Ford again. The wife inherited my 2017 Porsche Macan S, so even she is spoiled now too. LOL
pugsma said
Coming up on the 7 year Tesla Battery warranty limit in 2023. Going to have to make a trade-in decision on a new electrical car or SUV soon. Tesla Cyber Truck?
pugsma said
One things for sure, I need more range that the 260 miles than I have in my 75D, (75kW battery).
I see the new Tesla Model S long range has a 412 mile range. But I think the Cyber Truck with the Tri-motor is going to be over 500 miles. Now that would be quite useful for driving here in the area of Chicago, St Louis, West Lafayette, and Grand Rapids to see the kids on a single charge.
amans19 said
I believe the Tesla Model S Plaid+ will have a 520 mile range when it comes out later this year.
pugsma said
Yes, I did see that. But it’s $135K vs $69K for the Tri-mother Cyber Truck. I’ll need to do a few more NFLX style options plays to buy the Model S Plaid+. 🙂
orion.colorado said
I’d recommend checking out Rivian before committing to a Cybertruck.
William Waggoner said
My wife and I had never bought a new car in our 40 years together. Thanks to your TA and market analysis 2020 turned out to be the year we took the plunge. She’s a lover of the SUV so we went with Tesla model Y and absolutely love it. We’re city dwellers and don’t drive a whole lot so range (320) was fine for us. Enjoy your new ride whatever you decide on.
pugsma said
OK that’s an awesome story! Very happy for you both!
Robert Swaim said
I’m in the industry and have a deposit on the Cyber-Truck at the original $39k price because while it looks funky, absolutely nothing will touch the capabilities for the price. That said, the new GM Ultium design is going to kick butt, Toyota is going to have a very fast recharge capability, and there are going to be a number of other new cars/trucks with longer range introduced within the next year.
mm said
I’m in with BABA too. Very nice call Steve!!!
Partagas said
Me too. Entered yesterday. Thanks Steve.
pugsma said
OK I just did my initial charts for both F and GM for the 2021 Custom Chart Archive.
Note: I have already completed 26 charts in the 2021 CCA in just a months time. I only did 35 charts in the 2020 CCA over 7 months.
Man this 2021 CCA has become a beast! Most of the TA charts for individual stocks are playing out as predicted.
pugsma said
Time to order some Chipotle and go pick it up! I’m hungry, so let the Big Dogs eat!
pugsma said
So the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative is making a née all-time high intra/day.
IF this closes at a new All-time high today, then the SP500 is very likely to follow soon since 3871.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354
pugsma said
I trust everyone bought the 3817 morning dip on this real-time call:
Pugsma said
February 3, 2021 at 10:37 am e
VIX is dropping today along with the SP500 dropping. That’s a bullish SP500 setup
Reply
Pugsma said
February 3, 2021 at 10:38 am e
This looks like a wave iv-(1) within minor 5 up. Target for v-(1) at 3871.
BeezNeez said
Is this just a correction within wave iv from today’s high of 3847? So 3871 is still the target?
lauter1 said
New high for NYAD. https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NYAD
kurt.ove.ler said
Thx
What is the short term wave count right here, seen from the alternative blue count perspective?
pugsma said
The same as the white labels, except this is minor (1) of minor 1 of major [5] vs minute (1) of minor 5 of major [5]. Alt blue will have 5 minor waves up to near 4500 vs 1 minor wave up to 4000.
Donald Petersen said
Can you make a few comments on Gold???? Thanks
pugsma said
Gold bugs are getting nervous.
But I have something to ease their minds.
pugsma said
But then again GLD is about to put in a death cross today. Maybe the gold bugs should be worried.
BeezNeez said
Now that yesterday’s high of 3848 was taken out, is 3871+ still a target?
pugsma said
Minute (1) is free to end after anytime now that there have been 5 waves up from 3694
BeezNeez said
Thanks, Steve! If the dip yesterday was a 2 wave down, does that mean we’re in a wave 3 now? ie. could be a strong move up? Sorry. Don’t know all the EW vernacular. 😉
pugsma said
You are discussing sub-minuette waves, which I never discuss. These are the lowest degree waves worth discussing here.
1-5, A-C : Minor
(1)-(5), (a)-(c) : Minute
i-v, a-b : Minuette
And yes a wave 3 is typically stronger than a wave 1, unless it’s an ending diagonal pattern.
BeezNeez said
Great! Thank you for the explanation!
Denali92 said
Last Friday, I noted there was only one January correction that did not extend in to February – that was the 9 day 3.7% correction that ended on the last trading day of January last year. The SPX then moved strongly higher. Last year, it just took 3 days to recoup the whole correction and set new all time highs. Who knows about this year, but clearly we are getting close.
I wanted to flag the similarities, as I have already seen two commentators compare Jan-Feb 2020 to this Jan-Feb 2021. There are definitely similarities extending back even to when one looks at the October lows in 2019 and 2020.
When that January high is taken out, from a February historical point of view, February actually becomes historically more bullish, as there have only been three notable February tops (all of which then bottomed in the March opex period). They were all opex period related (2007 post opex and post holiday, while 2011 and 2020 were during opex week)
At this point in time, who knows what the February opex period will bring, but I would not be surprised to see a lot more chatter, particularly from those bearishly inclined comparing 2020 and 2021.
All I know is that the market is incredibly persistent and all corrections are shorter than history would predict.
-D
carlos simoes said
small wave 2 tomorrow probably?
pugsma said
AAII Weekly Sentiment (For Feb 3rd) still almost as many Bears as Bulls. Same as at the late October low of 3234.
This is great news for us Bulls!
Sentiment Survey Historical Data
Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
February 3: 37.4% 27.1% 35.6%
January 27: 37.7% 24.0% 38.3%
January 20: 42.5% 23.0% 34.5%
January 6: 45.2% 23.1% 31.7%
December 30: 46.1% 27.1% 26.8%
December 23: 43.6% 34.4% 22.0%
December 16: 43.4% 30.3% 26.3%
December 9: 48.1% 25.1% 26.9%
December 2: 49.1% 28.3% 22.7%
November 25: 47.3% 25.3% 27.5%
November 18: 44.4% 29.3% 26.4%
November 11: 55.8% 19.3% 24.9%
November 4: 38.0% 30.6% 31.5%
October 28: 35.3% 29.4% 35.3%
October 21: 35.7% 31.2% 33.0%
pugsma said
Here is my challenge for all your subscribers who are making all this money following my SP-500 forecast since March 2020.
Why haven’t you told you family, friends, co-worker, enemies, etc about my premium service. Heck I even added a 10-day free trial: https://pugsma.com/product/1-week-free-trial-monthly-service-subscription/
One out of every three people are bearish on the markets. They must be saved from hurting their financial future.
MS53 said
Have led many horses to the water over the years and sent several people the free offer.
orion.colorado said
I’ve been able to get a few people signed on over the past few years sign up, so I try. Still am. Anytime someone is interested in markets/trading, the pugwave comes up; as I know your baseline motivation is as stated above. The banksters have taken enough people’s money.
Currently, I have two or three people that A) should be reading this and B) should just sign up already. I’ll nudge them again. I also just sent a link over to a friend who just called that could really benefit from the CCA given a new situation that just kicked into gear for them. He should be signing up for CCA at min, probably the standard service as well today/tomorrow.
In fact, I’ll probably sign on to the CCA given my conversation with him as the day job is slowing down a bit and I am too protective of last year’s gains. Need to shake up my bias a bit.
Thanks for continuing to do what you do, Steve.
MS53 said
Wow…Nymo looking for first close over +20 in 2 months. Vix collapsing to 22, getting close to the 20 line !!!
pugsma said
Another very important comment for anyone new here: It is best to use my Technical Analysis work on the SP-500 trade at the minor degree wave level or above.
Be very long during major [1], [3] and [5] wave ups.
Be long during minor 1, 3, and 5 wave ups.
By the primary (white/green) the SP-500 is in a minor 5 of major [5] up to at least where minor 5=1 at 4035.
By the alternate (blue) the SP-500 is a minor major [5] wave up to at least where major [5]=[1] at 4457.
We are in “cruise control” mode here. Sit back and watch your profits grow. Don’t worry about the minute, minuette and certainly now the sub-minuette waves!
Rodney said
Very wise and appreciated commentary. Thanks.
pugsma said
Oh and one more point.
IF both counts point in the same direction, “Don’t Fight The PUG!” 🙂
greggcreek said
It’s good to follow The King!
TIMOTHY CREEDON III said
“Cruise control” is GOOD!
Newbies, many times PUG will comment about about an opportinity to add, or if not already long, to initiate at a certain (retracement) level. It wont be, “BUY”, but it should sound/read fairly clear!
pugsma said
It’s 3 pm EST. Do you know where your Bears are? Bring them home before they get ran over above 3871…
pugsma said
Customer “paid for