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Archive for the ‘SP-500’ Category

January 7th, 2021: SP-500, QQQ, and IWM 60-min SP-500 Chart Updates

Posted by pugsma on January 7, 2021

SP500, QQQ and IWM Technical Analysis

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January 6th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 6, 2021

SP500 Technical Analysis

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January 5th, 2021: SP-500 Technical Analysis

Posted by pugsma on January 5, 2021

SP500 Technical Analysis

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January 4th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 4, 2021

SP500 Technical Analysis View

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January 4th, 2021: SP-500 60-min Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 4, 2021

SP-500 Chart Intra-day Update

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December 31st, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 31, 2020

4:55 pm EST: The SP-500 price opened flat from 3732, dropped to the days low at 3727 and then rallied a the end of the day to hit the days high of 3760 and closed near the high at 3756, which is all-time closing high. The SP-500 closed the year up +16.3%. What an incredible trading and investing year 2020 it was !

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near the zero line.  The NYMO has not closed back above the zero line after closing below -20 at -31 last Wed Dec 23rd. Thus the NYMO has failed to clear the “crash zone” of -20 to zero. This is sign of weak market breadth and “could” lead to a significant SP500 correction, if the NYMO can’t close above zero soon. A NYMO close above the zero line will signal the next sustained wave up.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -0.02% at 22.75.  Note, the VIX trend has been higher since early December as the SP500 price rose. This is positive divergence on the VIX wrt to the SP500 and is a negative for the SP500. Need the VIX to break below 20 to confirm a melt-up SP500 scenario.
  3. Chart Pattern:  Potential bullish consolidation rectangle from 3633 to 3712 (79 points). With the break above 3712, this leads to a bullish target is 3712 + (3712-3633) = 3791 (so far has reached 3760).
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed at a new all-time high today with the SP500 closing at a new high of 3756. Thus, no negative divergence.  There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500 price and it this could now be developing.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway that should target 3916, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646 and wave minute (2) at 3512. Wave minute (3) up underway with (3)=0.78(1) target at 3833. Within minute (3), wave i ended at 3629, wave ii ended at 3544, wave iii ended at 3712, where iii=1.62*i and wave iv ended at 3637. Wave v-(3) is underway, where v=1.62*i at 3827.  The major [5]=[1] target is 3972 to complete P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the wave iv-(3) low at 3637.

The slightly less probable (than the primary) alternate (blue) wave outcome is that the the major [5] wave will extend to at least 1.62*[1] = 4445. In this scenario, this first wave up from the major [4] low at 3234 to 3727 thus far is only a minor 1 wave as a leading diagonal. Minor 1 could have ended at 3760, where (5)=0.62(3) or could target minute (5)=0.78(1) at 3793 (LD max 3833). The minor 2 correction should drop to a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3558 to 3495 into mid-January. From there, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4443 into late year 2021.

The must less likely alternate (red) wave count scenario is major [5]-P1-C1 could have ended at 3760, where minor 5=0.62*minor or could target 3793, where minor 5=0.78*minor 1 (ED max 3833) as an ending diagonal. From the P1 top, there should then be a significant P2 correction to at least a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3183/2992. Note: It will take a break below the 3501 pivot to make this alternate (red) wave count more likely and a break below 3234 to confirm it.

Housing Keeping:  1) If you are planning to remain with the service for year 2021 buy have not yet made a payment, then you should have an e-mail from Tues, Dec 29th, with the details and instructions for how to sign-up. The old monthly password system is being discontinued and you will have a membership account with the blog for year 2021 that will provide you access to the premium service and custom chart service. To become a paid 2021 member you MUST purchase and register via the PUG SMA Shop https://pugsma.com/shop/

The next blog post will be on Monday, Jan 4th.

Wishing Everyone a Healthy and Happy New Year in 2021 !!!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Posted in Premium, SP-500 | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

December 30th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 30, 2020

4:55 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped up from 3727 to 3736, quickly hit the days high at 3744, then fell all day to close near the low (3730) at 3732.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near -5.  The NYMO has not closed back above the zero line after closing below -20 at -31 last Wed Dec 23rd. Thus the NYMO has failed to clear the “crash zone” of -20 to zero. This is sign of weak market breadth and “could” lead to a significant SP500 correction.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -1.3% at 22.77.  Note, the VIX trend has been higher since early December as the SP500 price rose. This is positive divergence on the VIX wrt to the SP500 and is a negative for the SP500. Need the VIX to break below 20 to confirm a melt-up SP500 scenario.
  3. Chart Pattern:  Potential bullish consolidation rectangle from 3633 to 3712 (79 points). With the break above 3712, this leads to a bullish target is 3712 + (3712-3633) = 3791 (so far has reached 3756).
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed at a new all-time high today with the SP500 closing at 3732. This means that the SP500 3756 level from yesterday will like be exceeded soon.   There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500 price and it this could now be developing.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway that should target 3916, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646 and wave minute (2) at 3512. Wave minute (3) up underway with (3)=0.78(1) target at 3833. Within minute (3), wave i ended at 3629, wave ii ended at 3544, wave iii ended at 3712, where iii=1.62*i and wave iv ended at 3637. Wave v-(3) is underway, where v=1.62*i at 3827.  The major [5]=[1] target is 3972 to complete P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the wave iv-(3) low at 3637.

The slightly less probable (than the primary) alternate (blue) wave outcome is that the the major [5] wave will extend to at least 1.62*[1] = 4445. In this scenario, this first wave up from the major [4] low at 3234 to 3727 thus far is only a minor 1 wave as a leading diagonal. Minor 1 could have ended at 3756, where (5)=0.62(3) or could target minute (5)=0.78(1) at 3793 (LD max 3833). The minor 2 correction should drop to a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3558 to 3495 into mid-January. From there, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4443 into late year 2021.

The must less likely alternate (red) wave count scenario is major [5]-P1-C1 could have ended at 3756, where minor 5=0.62*minor or could target 3793, where minor 5=0.78*minor 1 (ED max 3833) as an ending diagonal. From the P1 top, there should then be a significant P2 correction to at least a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3183/2992. Note: It will take a break below the 3501 pivot to make this alternate (red) wave count more likely and a break below 3234 to confirm it.

Housing Keeping:  1) If you are planning to remain with the service for year 2021 buy have not yet made a payment, then you should have an e-mail from Tues, Dec 29th, with the details and instructions for how to sign-up. The old monthly password system is being discontinued and you will have a membership account with the blog for year 2021 that will provide you access to the premium service and custom chart service. To become a paid 2021 member you MUST purchase and register via the PUG SMA Shop https://pugsma.com/shop/

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Posted in Premium, SP-500 | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

December 29th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 29, 2020

4:50 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped up from 3735 to 3750, quickly hit a new all-time high at 3756, then fell all day to close near the low (3723) at 3727.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO down below -20 from -5 area on Mon Dec 28th.  The NYMO never closed back above the zero line after closing below -20 at -31 last Wed Dec 23rd. Thus the NYMO has failed to clear the “crash zone” of -20 to zero. This is sign of weak market breadth and could lead a significant SP500 correction.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +6.4% at 23.08.  Note, the VIX trend has been higher since early December as the SP500 price rose. This is positive divergence on the VIX wrt to the SP500 and is a negative for the SP500.
  3. Chart Pattern:  Potential bullish consolidation rectangle from 3633 to 3712 (79 points). A break above 3712, leads to a bullish target is 3712 + (3712-3633) = 3791 (so far has reached 3756).
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed significantly lower today as the SP500 set an intra-day new all-time high at 3756.   There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500 price and it this could now be developing.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway that should target 3916, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646 and wave minute (2) at 3512. Wave minute (3) up underway with (3)=0.78(1) target at 3833. Within minute (3), wave i ended at 3629, wave ii ended at 3544, wave iii ended at 3712, where iii=1.62*i and wave iv ended at 3637. Wave v-(3) is underway, where v=1.62*i at 3827.  The major [5]=[1] target is 3972 to complete P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the wave iv-(3) low at 3633.

The slightly less probable (than the primary) alternate (blue) wave outcome is that the the major [5] wave will extend to at least 1.62*[1]. Wave major [3] at 821 points was only slightly longer (1.08) than major [1] at 763 points. Often when major [3] is weak, the major [5] wave will extend. The major [5]=1.62[1] extension target is at 4445. In this scenario, this first wave up from the major [4] low at 3234 to 3727 thus far is only a minor 1 wave as a leading diagonal. Minor 1 could have ended at 3756, where (5)=0.62(3) or could target minute (5)=0.78(1) at 3793 (LD max 3833). The minor 2 correction should drop to a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3558 to 3495 into mid-January. From there, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4443 into late year 2021.

The must less likely alternate (red) wave count scenario is major [5]-P1-C1 could have ended at 3756, where minor 5=0.62*minor or could target 3793, where minor 5=0.78*minor 1 (ED max 3833) as an ending diagonal. From the P1 top, there should then be a significant P2 correction to at least a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3183/2992. Note: It will take a break below the 3501 pivot to make this alternate (red) wave count more likely and a break below 3234 to confirm it.

Housing Keeping:  1) If you are planning to remain with the service for year 2021 buy have not yet made a payment, then you should have an e-mail from Tues, Dec 29th, with the details and instructions for how to sign-up. The old monthly password system is being discontinued and you will have a membership account with the blog for year 2021 that will provide you access to the premium service and custom chart service. To become a paid 2021 member you MUST purchase and register via the PUG SMA Shop https://pugsma.com/shop/

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Posted in Premium, SP-500 | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

December 28th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 28, 2020

4:45 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped up from 3703 to 3723 and climbed steadily to the days high of 3741, then ended at 3735.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed flat near -5 from -31 on Tuesday Dec 22nd.  The NYMO closed two consecutive days below its lower BB on Mon, Dec 21st and Tues, Dec 22nd then closed back inside its lower BB today. This is a NYMO based confirmed SP500 Buy signal.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +0.8% at 21.70.  The VIX closed Monday, Dec 21st above its upper BB, setting up a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy trigger. The VIX closed back below its upper BB Tues, Dec 22nd, confirming the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal. Wed, Dec 23rd the VIX closed red, double confirming the VIX Sell, SP-500 Buy signal.
  3. Chart Pattern:  Potential bullish consolidation rectangle from 3633 to 3712 (79 points). Bullish target is 3712 + (3712-3633) = 3791.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative rose today and made a new all-time high with the SP-500 also making an all-time high 3741.  There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500 price.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway that should target 3916, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646 and wave minute (2) at 3512. Wave minute (3) up underway with (3)=0.78(1) target at 3833. Within minute (3), wave i ended at 3629, wave ii ended at 3544, wave iii ended at 3712, where iii=1.62*i and wave iv ended at 3637. Wave v-(3) is underway, where v=1.62*i at 3827.  The major [5]=[1] target is 3972 to complete P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the wave iv-(3) low at 3633.

The possible alternate (blue) wave outcome is that the the major [5] wave will extend to at least 1.62*[1]. Wave major [3] at 821 points was only slightly longer (1.08) than major [1] at 763 points. Often when major [3] is weak, the major [5] wave will extend. The major [5]=1.62[1] extension target is at 4445. In this scenario, this first wave up from the major [4] low at 3234 to 3727 thus far is only a minor 1 wave as a leading diagonal. Minor 1 is targeting minute (5)=0.78(1) at 3793 (LD max 3833). The minor 2 correction should drop to a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3540 to 3481 into mid-January. From there, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4443 into late year 2021.

The must less likely alternate (red) wave count scenario is major [5]-P1-C1 is targeting 3793, where minor 5=0.78*minor 1 (ED max 3833) as an ending diagonal. From the P1 top, there should then be a significant P2 correction to at least a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3183/2992. Note: It will take a break below the 3501 pivot to make this alternate (red) wave count more likely and a break below 3234 to confirm it.

Housing Keeping:  1) If you are planning to remain with the service for year 2021, then you should have e-mail from Mon, Dec 21st, with the details and instructions for how to sign-up. The old monthly password system is being discontinued and you will have a membership account with the blog for year 2021 that will provide you access to the premium service and custom chart service. To become a paid 2021 member you MUST purchase and register via the PUG SMA Shop https://pugsma.com/shop/

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Posted in Premium, SP-500 | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

December 23rd, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 23, 2020

4:45 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped up from 3687 to 3693 and climbed steadily to the days high of 3711. then dropped in the final 10 mins to close at 3690.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near -10 from -31 on Tuesday, but more importantly back inside its lower BB.  The NYMO closed two consecutive days below its lower BB on Mon, Dec 21st and Tues, Dec 22nd then closed back inside its lower BB today. This is a NYMO based confirmed SP500 Buy signal.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -3.8% at 23.31.  The VIX closed Monday, Dec 21st above its upper BB, setting up a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy trigger. The VIX closed today back below its upper BB Tues, Dec 22nd, confirming the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal. Today the VIX closed red, double confirming the VIX Sell, SP-500 Buy signal.
  3. Chart Pattern:  Potential bullish consolidation rectangle from 3633 to 3712 (79 points). Bullish target is 3712 + (3712-3633) = 3791.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative rose today and is near a new all-time high with the SP-500 below its 3727 all-time high.  There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500 price.
SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway that should target 3916, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646 and wave minute (2) at 3512. Wave minute (3) up underway with (3)=0.78(1) target at 3833. Within minute (3), wave i ended at 3629, wave ii ended at 3544, wave iii ended at 3712, where iii=1.62*i and wave iv ended at 3677. Wave v-(3) is underway, where v=i at 3754 to v=1.62*i at 3827.  The major [5]=[1] target is 3972 to complete P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the wave iv-(3) low at 3633.

The possible alternate (blue) wave outcome is that the the major [5] wave will extend to at least 1.62*[1]. Wave major [3] at 821 points was only slightly longer (1.08) than major [1] at 763 points. Often when major [3] is weak, the major [5] wave will extend. The major [5]=1.62[1] extension target is at 4445. In this scenario, this first wave up from the major [4] low at 3234 to 3727 thus far is only a minor 1 wave as a leading diagonal. Minor 1 could have ended at 3727 or make a slightly higher high near 3791 (max 3833). The minor 2 correction should drop to a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3540 to 3481 into mid-January. From there, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4443 into late year 2021.

The must less likely alternate (red) wave count scenario is major [5]-P1-C1 has topped at 3727 or will be is topping soon at 3791 below 3833 (max) as an ending diagonal. From the P1 top, there should then be a significant P2 correction to at least a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3183/2992. Note: It will take a break below the 3501 pivot to make this alternate (red) wave count more likely and a break below 3234 to confirm it.

Housing Keeping:  1) If you are planning to remain with the service for year 2021, then you should have e-mail from Mon, Dec 21st, with the details and instructions for how to sign-up. The old monthly password system is being discontinued and you will have a membership account with the blog for year 2021 that will provide you access to the premium service and custom chart service. To become a paid 2021 member you MUST purchase and register via the PUG SMA Shop https://pugsma.com/shop/ 2) The next blog update will be on Monday, Dec 28th.

Merry Christmas !!! Happy Holidays !!

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly Chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Posted in Premium, SP-500 | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »