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Archive for the ‘SP-500’ Category

July 6th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 6, 2021

SP500 Technical Analysis

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July 1st, 2021: SP-500 Technical Analysis

Posted by pugsma on July 1, 2021

SP500 Technical Analysis

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June 30th, 2021: IWM, QQQ and SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 30, 2021

IWM, QQQ and SP500 Technical Analysis

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June 28th, 2021: SP-500 Technical Analysis

Posted by pugsma on June 28, 2021

SP500 Technical Analysis

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June 24th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 24, 2021

5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4241 to 4257, rose all day to hit a new all-time high of 4271 and closed at 4266 (new all-time closing high).

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near the zero line.  The VIX needs to close above zero and then close above +20 to confirm a strong minor 3 impulse wave higher per the primary (white/green) wave count.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -2.1 % at 15.97.  
  3. Chart PatternBull Flag with a target of 4419.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high along with the SP500 all-time high at 4257 back on June 15th. The A-D line cumulative is still slightly below its June 15th all-time high with the SP-500 closing a new all-time high of 4266. This is a negative divergence and needs to be cleared.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702 and major [5]=[1] at 5098. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4257 as a leading diagonal (LD). The minor 2 wave retraced to 4164, near the typical 50% Fib target of 4157. The minor 3 wave up is underway should target 2.62*minor at 4688 going into the end the year 2021. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) wave should target 4356.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above 4164 the minor 2 of major [5] low.

The new alternate (blue) is that major [3]-P1-C3 is extending to the major [3]=1.38[1] target at 4402.  Once the major [3] wave ends near 4402 in July/August, there will be a major [4] correction to the 23%/38% Fib retrace area at 4072 to 3856 into Sept/Oct before the major [5]-P1 wave extends to near 5000 into the spring of 2022. Note: The alternate (blue) count is free to end major [3] anywhere from the June 24th high at 4271 to 4402 in July/Aug.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Posted in Premium, SP-500 | Tagged: , | 10 Comments »

June 22nd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 22, 2021

8:30 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 4224, dipped to 4217 and then rallied all today to hit 4256 and close at 4246.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near -21 from -25 on Monday.  The VIX needs to close above zero and then close above +20 to confirm a strong minor 3 impulse wave higher per the primary (white/green) wave count.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -6.9 % at 16.66.  Yesterday the VIX closed below its upper confirming the first step of the VIX Based, SP500 Buy Signal. Today the VIX closed red and was the final confirming step of the VIX based SP500 Buy Signal.
  3. Chart PatternBull Flag with a target of 4419.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high along with the SP500 all-time high at 4257 back on June 15th. The A-D line cumulative is now well below its June 15th all-time high with the SP-500 near 4257. This is a negative divergence.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702 and major [5]=[1] at 5098. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4257 as a leading diagonal (LD). The minor 2 wave retraced to the typical 50% Fib at target of 4157. The minor 3 wave should target 2.62*minor at 4688 going into the end the year 2021. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) wave should target 4257+.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above 4164 the minor 2 of major [5] low.

The new alternate (blue) is that major [3]-P1-C3 is extending to the major [3]=1.38[1] target at 4402.  Once the major [3] wave ends near 4402 in July/August, there will be a major [4] correction to the 23%/38% Fib retrace area at 4072 to 3856 into Sept/Oct before the major [5]-P1 wave extends to near 5000 into the spring of 2022. Note: The alternate (blue) count is free to end anywhere from the June 15th high at 4257 to 4402.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Posted in Premium, SP-500 | Tagged: , | 21 Comments »

June 21st, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 21, 2021

5:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4166 to 4173, rose steadily all day to a high of 4226 and closed at 4225.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near -20 from -54 on Friday.  The NYMO has closed two consecutive days below its lower BB and on Friday it closed also closed below -40This set up a NYMO based, SP500 Buy signal on Friday. The NYMO closed back inside it lower BB today to confirm the SP500 Buy signal.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -13.6.6 % at 17.89.  The VIX closed below its upper confirming the first step of the VIX Based, SP500 Buy Signal. The final confirming step is a red VIX close tomorrow.
  3. Chart PatternNone.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high along with the SP500 all-time high at 4257.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702 and major [5]=[1] at 5098. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4257 as a leading diagonal (LD). The minor 2 wave retraced to the typical 50% Fib at target of 4157. The minor 3 wave should target 2.62*minor at 4688 going into the end the year 2021. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) wave should target 4257+.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid for minor 2 of major [5] above the major [4] low of 4057.

The new alternate (blue) is that major [5]-P1-C3 completed as an ending diagonal (ED) at 4257.  The P2 wave to at least the 23% Fib retrace of 3782 (-11% correction) is just getting underway. The first minor 1 wave of major [A]-P2 completed at 4164. The minor 2 wave has retraced to 4226, just above the 62% Fib of 4222. Once the minor 2 wave completes, the minor 3 will drop below the minor 1 low of 4164. Based on minor 2 ending at 4226, the minor 3 =1.62*minor 1 target is 4075.  Note: The alternate (blue) wave count as labeled remains valid below the 4257 P1-C3 top and is confirmed on a break of the 4057 level.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Posted in Premium, SP-500 | Tagged: , | 16 Comments »

June 18th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 18, 2021

5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4221 to 4205, dropped to 4272, traded sideways and then dropped further to close at 4166.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -60 from -29 yesterday.  The NYMO has closed two consecutive days below its lower BB and today it closed below -40. This sets up a NYMO based, SP500 Buy signal. The NYMO must close back inside it lower BB to confirm the signal.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +16.6 % at 20.70.  The VIX closed above its upper BB. The sets up a VIX based, SP500 Buy signal. The VIX must close back below its upper BB to confirm the first step and then close red the next day to fully confirm the signal.
  3. SP500 Daily Bollinger Band (BB): The SP500 closed just slightly above its lower BB at 4166 vs 4161. Thus, today’s close just missed the third signal of the Trifecta SP500 Buy Signal: 1) the NYMO below its BB, 2) VIX above its BB and 3) SP500 below its BB.
  4. Chart PatternNone.
  5. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high along with the SP500.

Seasonality: 4-Year Cycle, Post-Election Year DJIA Seasonality shows strong gains into July-August after a June low.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702 and major [5]=[1] at 5098. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4257 as a leading diagonal (LD). The minor 2 wave is underway with a typical 50%/62% Fib retrace target of 4157 to 4133. Once minor 2 complete, the minor 3 wave should target 2.62*minor at 4680 going into the end the year 2021.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above the major [4] low of 4057.

The new alternate (blue) is that major [5]-P1-C3 completed as an ending diagonal (ED) at 4257.  The P2 wave to a 23% to 38% Fib retrace of 3782 (-11% correction) to 3472 (-18% correction) is just getting underway. The first minor 1 wave of major [A]-P2 should target the 4086 pivot area and major [A]=P2 should target the 3770 pivot. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count as labeled remains valid below the 4257 P1-C3 top and is confirmed on a break of the 4057 level.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Posted in Premium, SP-500 | Tagged: , | 21 Comments »

June 16th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 16, 2021

6:05 pm EST: The SP-500 opened up from 4246 to 4252, traded sideways, then dropped to 4202 (days low), and closed at 4224.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 completed at 4257, just below the typical minor 3=1.62*minor 1 target of 4256. The minor 4 wave should retrace to at least the 23%/38% Fib at 4212/4183 and may have completed today at 4202.  Once minor 4 wave ends, the final minor 5 wave will head for the minor 5=1 target of 4309/4328 to complete major [5]-P1-C3.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above the minor 1 high of 4183.

The new alternate (blue) is that the minor 5 wave of major [5]-P1-C3 completed at 4257. The Primary 2 (P2) wave lower to at least the 23%/38% Fib retrace of all of P1 at 3820/3503 is just getting underway.  Note: The alternate (blue) wave count as labeled remains valid below the 4257 high.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Posted in Premium, SP-500 | Tagged: , | 19 Comments »

June 15th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 15, 2021

5:05 pm EST: The SP-500 opened up from 4255 to 4257 (an all-time high), dropped to 4238, traded sideways and closed at 4246.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.50[1] target is at 4578. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4183 and the minor 2 was a deep retrace to 4061. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a target at 4313, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1. Within the minor 3 wave, minute (4) completed at 4168 and minute (5) is underway headed for 4313. Once minor 3 completes at 4313, the minor 4 wave should retrace to at least the 23%/38% Fib at 4255/4217.  Then the final minor 5 wave will head for the minor 5=1 target of 4381 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above the minute (4) low of 4168.

The new alternate (blue) is that the minor 4 wave of major [5]-P1-C3 completed as and ascending triangle at 4219 and the final minor 5 wave up to a triangle target of 4306 is underway to complete the major [5]-P1-C3 wave. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count as labeled remains valid above the minor 4 low of 4219. A break below 4219 would begin to confirm the major [5]-P3-C1 top is in place. However a break below 4168 would be needed for full confirmation.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Posted in Premium, SP-500 | Tagged: , | 3 Comments »