March 7th, 2025: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 7, 2025
4:35 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 5738, rose to hit 5770, dropped to hit 5666 (day’s low), rallied to 5783 (day’s high) and closed at 5770.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Buy Signals (Two of Three Signals Triggered on Thursday, March 6th with a NYMO +DIV):
- VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal: On Thursday, March 6th the VIX closed (24.87) above its upper BB (24.46) once again resetting the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal. On Friday, March 7th the VIX closed below its upper BB completing step 2 of the signal. The final confirming step 3 is a red VIX closed on Monday, March 10th.
- SP500 BB, SP500 Buy Signal: On Thursday, March 6th, the SP500 closed at 5738 back below its lower BB (5753) once again resetting the SP500 BB, SP500 Buys Signal. On Friday, March 7th, the SP500 closed above its lower BB completing the confirming step of the signal!
- NYMO BB, SP500 Buy Signal: On Tuesday, March 4th, the NYMO closed (-51) back below its lower BB once again resetting the SP500 Buy Signal. On Wednesday, March 5th, the NYMO closed above its lower BB confirming the SP500 Buy signal.
- NYMO +DIV: On Thursday, March 6th it looks like the NYMO closed at -45 with the SP500 close at 5738 versus a Tuesday, March 4th close at -51 with the SP500 close at 5778. That’s a potential NYMO +DIV wrt to a lower SP500 closed. On Friday, March 7th, the NYMO closed higher near -25 confirming the +DIV!
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Just look how important a positive January is for the SP500 yearly gains. Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 alt (blue) P3 top near EOY. Alt(blue) count looking great here on January 31st with the SP500 close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative ($NYAD): The broad market $NYAD has not yet made a confirming new all-time high. SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV has played out as a large, 3-month long flat wave that likely ended today at 5666, just below where minor C=1.38A at 5695 and above where C=1.62A at 5616. The major [5] wave up is underway with a target of 6781, where [5]=[1]. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5666 and would be confirmed on move above 5812.
- The alternate (red) wave count is that P3-C3 of SCV completed at 6147. The P4 wave is underway that I’m expecting to take the form of a large contracting triangle. This -7.8% drop from 6167 to 5666 thus far is major [A]-P4 that could be complete or could test the target of the 23% Fib retrace of P3 at 5535. Note: The major [A]-P4 wave will likely be the Orthodox low of the P4 triangle wave.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
SP-500 monthly chart:
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