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2:15 pm EST: The SP-500 ends the month of July well above its 13-month EMA (2059) and 20-month SMA (2052). This is bullish for the IT to LT trend.
Wave minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 competed at 2169, where minor 3=0.78*minor 1. Wave minor 4 is completing a 23%/38% Fibonacci retrace to 2153/2137 before minor 5 of major [3] heads to the 2235 target area. Wave minor 4 appears to taking the form of an ascending triangle that must hold above 1956 or if it breaks below 2156 then it’s a zig-zag headed for the 2135 pivot support. The first IT (Intermediate-Term) P5-C1 wave target completion area is at 2246, where P5=0.62*P1. However there is a much higher target at P5=P1 = 2514. In this more bullish LT (Long-Term) scenario, both minor 3 of major [3] and major [3] itself would sub-divide and extended much higher.
Just remember the classic Technical Analysis Intermediate-term (IT) measured move break out above 2121, is 2121 + (2121-1992) = 2250, which is right at the first major [5]-P1-C5 target of 2242 and the Long-term (LT) measured move break out above 2135, is 2135 + (2135-1810) = 2460, which is right below P5=P1 = 2514 target.
1-31-13 2:45 pm: I wanted to show a chart of the McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) vs the SP-500 going back to Nov 2011. Notice that during the major [3] rally for Primary 1 of Cycle 3 (i.e. [3]-P1-C3) from Nov 2011 to April 2012, the $NYMO began to break-down below zero and continue to make lower, lows repeatedly breaking the lower Bollinger Band (BB) from about the mid-point of the rally in early February 2012. This is precisely what is transpiring right now with the $NYMO. So while some may worry about the $NYMO dropping now as the SP-500 continues to climb higher as being unusual, it fact it has happened within the last year as exact same point in a major [3] bull rally.
6:20 pm EST: Another new recovery high was made to at 1510.
The primary count is that wave i-(5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 completed today at 1510. The pull-back to 1500 was wave ii-(5), and now I’m looking for a wave iii-(5) move up to 1519, where iii=1.62*i. Ultimately, wave v-(5) of minor 3 should end in the 1524 pivot range of 1517 to 1531. There is a fib target at 1531, where minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1. Note, that wave ii-(5) must hold the 1498.09 level for this primary count to remain valid. A move below 1498.09 means that the alternate (blue) count is underway.
The alternate (blue) count short-term variant to the primary count is that wave (5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 completed today at 1510. The minimum triangle target was 1513, so this move from 1510 effectively satisfies that requirement. This alternate (blue) count means that the minor 4 wave is underway with typical targets of 1484 (23% retrace of minor 3) to 1467 (38%) retrace.
12:50 pm EST: Here is the updated SP-500 15-min chart. The primary count continues to be right on track with this market. We have a first target for wave v-(5) of minor 3 at 1307, where v=1.62*i, but here is also a target at 1319, where (5)=(1). There is pivot resistance at 1315. The blue alternate count variant was eliminated with the push above 1303.00. You can see the minor 4 of major [3]-P1-C3 pull-back targets listed on the 15-min chart once we complete the minor 3 wave up.
4:05 pm EST: Check out this SP-500 Weekly Candles Chart with the MCAD shown below the price. When the weekly MACD cross above zero and is pointing higher at a 45 deg angle, you should be looking to “buy the dips” as the SP-500 upward price movement has good momentum that could last 2 to 3 more months. Which in this case, would carry the SP-500 price to my 1400 to 1440 price target for the conclusion of P1-C3.
SP-500 Weekly Candles (EOD):
3:00 pm EST: Is there anything more exciting and rewarding than a bull market minor 3 of major [3] wave? Nope, not to me as an Elliott Wave Technician who over 2 years ago called the March 2009 generational bottom at SP-500 667 the end of Super Cycle Degree IV.
Primary count is that wave v-(5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 is finishing up near the v=1.62*i target of 1307 or the (5)=(1) target of 1319. For this area there should be a significant correction in time, if not price for minor 4. The minor 4 targets are in the 1282/1292 (23% retrace of minor 3) or 1267/1275 (38% retrace) area depending of minor ends at 1307 or 1319. Minor 4 should remain above the minor 1 high of 1267 to remain valid.
The new alternate (blue) count variant to the primary count above is that wave i-(5) of minor 3 is just ending here near 1307. There should be about a 50% retrace to the 1291 pivot area for wave ii-(5) before wave iii-(5) heads for 1340. The ultimate target for wave v-(5) of minor is 1344, where (5)=1.62*(1). There is also a minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1 target at 1336.
