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May 31st, 2023: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 31, 2023

9:10 am EST:  The SP-500 is not following a classic 5 wave impulse, like we see in the QQQ. It looks like a bunch of 3-wave moves both up and down and that is indicative of a leading diagonal. Thus, I have modified the SP-500 wave count in this fashion.

Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term)  Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. Seasonality (Late May to Mid-June): The SP-500 past 20 years of seasonality shows moderate strength to a new yearly high.
  2. Seasonality (Mid-June to Mid-July): Shows a drop to test the Mid-May low.

Key Technical Indicators (Long-Term):

  1. Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
  2. 200-day SMA at 3940 (3-8-23): The SP-500 closed above a rising 200-day SMA (3940) for the first time since April 2022.
  3. Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 with a 10th day close above 0.615.
  4. Seasonality (March to December): The SP-500 past 20-years of seasonality shows a low in March and a rally the rest of the year.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is a leading diagonal for major [1]-P3-C3. The completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 ended at 4100. The minor 2 wave completed at 3764 just below the 50% Fib of 3796. The minor 3 wave up looks to ending here (4231) where minor 3 = 0.78*minor1 at 4238. Within minor 3, wave (c)=(a) at 4240. Also, the minute (c) looks like an ending diagonal that has max extension of 4273. Once minor 3 end, the minor 4 wave should drop to the 23%/38% Fib retrace area at 4124 to 4054. And finally the minor 5 wave of major [1] should reach 4418 to 4488, depending on the minor 4 low at 4124 to 4054.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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