December 15th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on December 15, 2022
8:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3995 to 3959, then dropped steadily to 3879 (day’s low), traded sideways and closed at 3896.
Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Chart Pattern: Potential Double Top at 4100, neckline at 3906 and target at 3712. Broke and closed below the neckline today, Dec 15th confirming the pattern.
Wave Counts:
- The primary (white/green) count is the completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 as a leading diagonal at 4100, where minute (5)>(3)>(1). The initial minor 2 wave target is at the 38% Fib retracement of 3869 (hit 3879 today). The alternate (blue) count is a deeper 50% to 62% Fib retracement for minor 2 at 3796 to 3726. Note: The primary (white/green) and alternate (blue) counts are valid for minor 2 above the P2 low at 3492.
SP500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
12 Responses to “December 15th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”
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Michael Kalin said
That weird $VIX action from Monday is creating a huge divergence with $VIX and $SPX. Thoughts on this?
pugsma said
SP500 busted through both the 38% Fib at 3869 and the 50-day SMA at 3864.
Next target is the 50% Fib at 3796, where v=i at 3805 to complete 5 waxes down for minute (c) of minor 2.
pugsma said
But remember they goal of wave 2 is to scare the most traders from their positions. So the double top target of 3712 and 62% Fib is still a high probability target for early next eeek.
pugsma said
This is shaping to be like the week before Christmas in 2018. Bulls likely going to get a big lump of coal while Bears are going to get paid.
pugsma said
The NYMO now becoming oversold -60 and below its lower BB.
SP500 below it’s lower BB.
Just need the VIX to spike above 25 and above its upper BB.
Likely need more selling fear into close today and on Monday/Tuesday.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print
pugsma said
Since no significant rebound by 11:30am EST. I’d expect strong selling into the close today targeting the 50% Fib at 3796.
pugsma said
The mid-Nov massive Gap up (on CPI data) from 3749 to 3960 is likely to be closed. That makes the 62% Fib at 3726 and the Double Top Target of 3712 more likely.
Michael Kalin said
Art Cashin says the same thing. I know he’s a big name, but is this a good thing or bad thing? I’m noticing $VIX really diverging from $SPX price. Is that a quad witching phenom, or a really bullish development?
pugsma said
Another important thing to remember here is that all three of the SP500, IWM and QQQ show a leading diagonal for the minor 1 wave up. A leading diagonal often retraces to at least the 62% Fib and often the 78% Fib.
In other words, a leading diagonal in a wave 1 position is often almost entirely retraced before the next move higher.
MS53 said
Does that innoculate the indices from setting new P2 lows ?
MS53 said
Please ignore that question above. It’s poorly worded.
pugsma said
Unfortunately, the market is not a virus, though some might say it behaves like one. 🙂