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October 13th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 13, 2022

12:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3577 to 3520, dropped quickly to 3492 (day’s low), rallied to 3662, pulled back to 3620…

Technical Analysis Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. $NYMO: The NYMO put in a potential +DIV on Wed, Oct 12th, closing at -43 vs a new closing low on the SP500 at 3577 vs a NYMO of -27 with the SP500 close of 3585 on Sept 30th.

P2-C3 Price and Time Fibonacci: The P1-C3 wave rose from 2192 to 4819 and lasted from end of March 2020 to beginning of January 2022 (21 months). For P2-C3:

  1. 50% Fib of Price and Time is at 3505 and 10.5 months (mid-Nov 2022).
  2. 62% Fib of Price and Time is at 3190 and 13 months (end of Jan 2023).

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that P2-C3 bottomed at 3492 right at the 50% Fib in price (3505) of time of P1-C3 at 3504 by mid-October. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 3492.
  2. The alternate (red) count is that major [C]-P2-C3 headed the 62% Fib for P2 at 3190. Minor 1 of major [C] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor 2 was the 50% Fib rise from 3887 to 4119. Minor 3 wave completed at 3584, where M3=1.23M1 = 3579. Minor 4 has retraced to 3807 to just above the 38% Fib at 3787. The minor 5 wave lower is underway and should target 3368, where minor 5=1. Within the minor 5 wave, minute (1) ended at 3492 and the minute (2) wave is underway with 50%/62%/78% Fibs at 3650/3887/3737. Note: The alternate (red) wave count is valid below the minor 4 high at 3807.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart (12:35 pm EST):

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart (EOD, 5:45 pm EST):

10 Responses to “October 13th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Remember that above a 62% Fib retrace, in this case 3687, it’s much more likely that the alt(red) count is wrong and the 3807 invalidation point will be breached.

    Thus, above 3687 is a first level “giddy up” signal.

  2. pugsma said

    Not yet. We likely have not seen the end of minute (1) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3. Once minute (1) is in place the rest of the minute degree levels and minor 1 can be forecast.

  3. pugsma said

    Check out the 6 for 6 (100%) probability of a key market bottom signal that has massive gains 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, 6 muntjac and 12 months into the future.


  4. pugsma said

    “Bear Markets NEVER End on Good News!”

    Ponder it: “It means bear markets go down on bad news, bottom on bad news, and then that the new bull market starts up on bad news as it climbs the proverbial Wall Of Worry.”


  5. pugsma said

    FYI I just added an updated EOD (End of Day) SP500 daily chart.

    The alt(red) count is severely damaged after today’s reversal, unless it immediately turns down at the 62% Fib of 3687 (hit 3685 today) and heads to new lows below 3492.

    Thus, I’ll be introducing the alt(blue) wave count that has a much higher probability, where after a rally up to the 3009 to 4009 area into November, sees another (final) leg lower to the P1-C3 62% Fib of Price (3190) and Time (Jan-Feb 2023).

    • pugsma said

      Note: the new alt(blue) count would I align roughly with the time frame (Jan-Feb 2023) when the Fed is likely to stop raising the prime rate.

  6. pugsma said

    Steve Summa: On the EOD daily SP500 chart I did place a rough target for how the minor waves of major [1] of P3-C3 could unfold. However, as I said earlier, we need to find the end of minute (1) of minor 1 first to help make a better forecast.

  7. pugsma said

    Today was an 80% upside volume day.

    Back-to-back 80% upside volume days one key to establish a sustained bottom.

  8. pugsma said

    Weekly Hammer Candle: The SP500 has the potential to close the week with a rare weekly hammer candle above the 200-week SMA of 3600.

    The bottom of the hammer is 3492 and the top so far is at 3712. The hammer candle lower shadow (handle) size must be 2/3 of overall candle leaving the body (hammer head) as the upper 1/3. That’s a lower shadow below 3640 and a hammer body between 3640 and 3712.

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