October 13th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on October 13, 2022
12:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3577 to 3520, dropped quickly to 3492 (day’s low), rallied to 3662, pulled back to 3620…
Technical Analysis Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- $NYMO: The NYMO put in a potential +DIV on Wed, Oct 12th, closing at -43 vs a new closing low on the SP500 at 3577 vs a NYMO of -27 with the SP500 close of 3585 on Sept 30th.
P2-C3 Price and Time Fibonacci: The P1-C3 wave rose from 2192 to 4819 and lasted from end of March 2020 to beginning of January 2022 (21 months). For P2-C3:
- 50% Fib of Price and Time is at 3505 and 10.5 months (mid-Nov 2022).
- 62% Fib of Price and Time is at 3190 and 13 months (end of Jan 2023).
Wave Counts:
- The primary (white/green) count is that P2-C3 bottomed at 3492 right at the 50% Fib in price (3505) of time of P1-C3 at 3504 by mid-October. Note: The primary (white/
green) count is valid above 3492. - The alternate (red) count is that major [C]-P2-C3 headed the 62% Fib for P2 at 3190. Minor 1 of major [C] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor 2 was the 50% Fib rise from 3887 to 4119. Minor 3 wave completed at 3584, where M3=1.23M1 = 3579. Minor 4 has retraced to 3807 to just above the 38% Fib at 3787. The minor 5 wave lower is underway and should target 3368, where minor 5=1. Within the minor 5 wave, minute (1) ended at 3492 and the minute (2) wave is underway with 50%/62%/78% Fibs at 3650/3887/3737. Note: The alternate (red) wave count is valid below the minor 4 high at 3807.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart (12:35 pm EST):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD, 5:45 pm EST):
10 Responses to “October 13th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”
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pugsma said
Remember that above a 62% Fib retrace, in this case 3687, it’s much more likely that the alt(red) count is wrong and the 3807 invalidation point will be breached.
Thus, above 3687 is a first level “giddy up” signal.
pugsma said
Intra-day
pugsma said
Not yet. We likely have not seen the end of minute (1) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3. Once minute (1) is in place the rest of the minute degree levels and minor 1 can be forecast.
pugsma said
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pugsma said
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pugsma said
FYI I just added an updated EOD (End of Day) SP500 daily chart.
The alt(red) count is severely damaged after today’s reversal, unless it immediately turns down at the 62% Fib of 3687 (hit 3685 today) and heads to new lows below 3492.
Thus, I’ll be introducing the alt(blue) wave count that has a much higher probability, where after a rally up to the 3009 to 4009 area into November, sees another (final) leg lower to the P1-C3 62% Fib of Price (3190) and Time (Jan-Feb 2023).
pugsma said
Note: the new alt(blue) count would I align roughly with the time frame (Jan-Feb 2023) when the Fed is likely to stop raising the prime rate.
pugsma said
Steve Summa: On the EOD daily SP500 chart I did place a rough target for how the minor waves of major [1] of P3-C3 could unfold. However, as I said earlier, we need to find the end of minute (1) of minor 1 first to help make a better forecast.
pugsma said
Today was an 80% upside volume day.
Back-to-back 80% upside volume days one key to establish a sustained bottom.
pugsma said
Weekly Hammer Candle: The SP500 has the potential to close the week with a rare weekly hammer candle above the 200-week SMA of 3600.
The bottom of the hammer is 3492 and the top so far is at 3712. The hammer candle lower shadow (handle) size must be 2/3 of overall candle leaving the body (hammer head) as the upper 1/3. That’s a lower shadow below 3640 and a hammer body between 3640 and 3712.