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October 7th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 7, 2022

7:30 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 3784, rose to 3798 (day’s high), dopped to 3739 (day’s low) and closed at 3744.

Technical Analysis Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

P2-C3 Price and Time Fibonacci: The P1-C3 wave rose from 2192 to 4819 and lasted from end of March 2020 to beginning of January 2022 (21 months). For P2-C3:

  1. 50% Fib of Price and Time is at 3505 and 10.5 months (mid-Nov 2022)
  2. 62% Fib of Price and Time is at 3190 and 13 months (end of Jan 2023).

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that P2-C3 played out as a triple Zig-Zag major [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z], with the final (third) zig-zag major [Z] complete at 3584, near the major [Z]=[W] target of 3622 and 50% Fib of P1 at 3505. The initial target for minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 is at the 4119 pivot area. Minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3807. Minute (2) and retraced to 3621 within the 78%/88% Fibs at 3633 to 3633. Minute (3) should target 4067, where (3)=2.0(1). Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 3584.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is that P2-C3 is targeting the 50% Fib in price of time of P1-C3 at 3504 by mid-October. Wave minute (4) of minor C of major [Z]-P2 completed at 3807. Now the minute (5) wave down is underway with (5)=(1) target of 3525 and minor C=1.38A at 3513. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid for minute (4) below the minute (1) low at 3837.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that major [C]-P2-C3 headed the 62% Fib for P2 at 3190. Minor 1 of major [C] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor 2 was the 50% Fib rise from 3887 to 4119. Minor 3 wave completed at 3584, where M3=1.23M1 = 3579. Minor 4 has retraced to 3807 to just above the 38% Fib at 3787. The minor 5 wave lower is underway and should target 3368, where minor 5=1. Note: The alternate (red) wave count minor 4 wave is valid below the minor 1 low at 3887.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

8 Responses to “October 7th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    The QQQ broke below its 267.10 September Low.

    The SP500 came within a cats whisker of breaking the the September 3584 low.

    IWM continues to show relative strength above both the June and Sept lows.

    • pugsma said

      Historical Technical Analysis still says 84% chance the SP500 moves below 3584.

      Pugsma said
      October 7, 2022 at 1:44 pm e
      These marked technical historical comments from Wednesday morning still apply:

      Pugsma said

      October 5, 2022 at 9:09 am e
      FYI Cobra is showing two stats calling for a lower low than 3584.

      1) since year 1997, Down three weeks in a row, there is a 84% chance (49 of 58) of a lower low.

      2) NYMO drops significantly below -100, then a lower low is likely within a messy bottoming process that will last several months (i.e. not likely a V-bottom).

  2. pugsma said

    House Keeping: There is no need to update the charts tonight. Let’s see if the SP500 followed the QQQ into a new low tomorrow or not. Then we’ll have a better idea of what’s next

    One thing that’s going to be interning this week is to see how things play out into the all important Friday CPI monthly report for September. The last time the market rallied into the August monthly CPI then fell hard after it was not was hotter than expected. Seems like we could see the opposite this time, setting up the potential for a big surprise on Friday morning.

  3. pugsma said

    As shown on the SP500 charts above, now that 3585 gave way, the 50% Fibonacci Retrace of P1-C3 at 3505 is the next target area.

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