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October 6th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 6, 2022

5:00 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 3784, rose to 3798 (day’s high), dopped to 3739 (day’s low) and closed at 3744.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. ZTB (Zweig Breadth Trust): On Friday, Sept 30th the ZBT indicator closed below 0.40 at 0.38 and on Monday, Oct 3rd it closed at 0.46. This triggered a potential ZBT signal. The ZBT now has 10 trading days (until EOD Friday Oct 14th) to close above 0.615 and produce a ZBT signal (ZBT signals are extremely rare and are extremely bullish). ZTB Chart: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that P2-C3 played out as a triple Zig-Zag major [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z], with the final (third) zig-zag major [Z] complete at 3584, near the major [Z]=[W] target of 3622 and 50% Fib of P1 at 3505. The initial target for minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 is at the 4119 pivot area. Minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3792. Minute (2) might have completed 3723 near the 38% fib of 3713 or could need retrace to the 50%/62% Fib area at 3688/3663. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 3584.
  2. The alternate (red) count is that major [C]-P2-C3 headed the 62% Fib for P2 at 3190. Minor 1 of major [C] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor 2 was the 50% Fib rise from 3887 to 4119. Minor 3 wave completed at 3584, where M3=1.23M1 = 3579. Minor 4 has retraced 3807 to just above the 38% Fib at 3787. Once minor 4 complete the minor 5 wave lower should target 3368, where minor 5=1. Note: The alternate (red) wave count minor 4 wave is valid below the minor 1 low at 3887.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM daily chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ daily chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

5 Responses to “October 6th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Atlanta Fed real-time GDP for Q3-2022 now at +2.7%.


    • pugsma said

      US unemployment rate at a 40 year low of 3.5%

    • pugsma said

      The US economy is super strong.

      No recession in sight.

      Soft landing likely.

      The markets are going to need to come to grips with (price in) a US Fed funds rate of 4.0% to 4.5% that stays there most of 2023 and ease back to 3.5% in 2024.

  2. pugsma said

    SP500 hit 3642, which is below the 62% Fib at 3669 and just above the 78% fib at 3633.

    Once the wave 2 retrace exceeds the 62% Fib, the chance of the previous low holding is greatly reminisced

    • pugsma said

      These marked technical historical comments from Wednesday morning still apply:

      Pugsma said

      October 5, 2022 at 9:09 am e
      FYI Cobra is showing two stats calling for a lower low than 3584.

      1) since year 1997, Down three weeks in a row, there is a 84% chance (49 of 58) of a lower low.

      2) NYMO drops significantly below -100, then a lower low is likely within a messy bottoming process that will last several months (i.e. not likely a V-bottom).

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