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September 29th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 29, 2022

9:45 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3718 to 3687, quickly dipped to 3620, rose to 3657, dropped to 3610 (day’s low) and closed at 3640 (new 2022 closing low).

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. $NYMO: Closed at -73 on Sept 29th (well above -128) with the SP500 at new closing low of 3640, setting up a +DIV wrt SP500. Closed at -128 on Sept 26th and at -108 on Sept 27th. NYMO readings below -100 are extremely rare. They are seen during long-term bottoming processes.
  2. $VIX: Closed up +5.5% at 31.84 on Sept 29th but still under it’s upper, thus no confirming step 2 yet. Closed at 3 consecutive days above upper BB on Sept 24th, 26th and 27th. Thus has triggered the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy (needs a 2 step confirmation process: 1. VIX closed below it’s upper BB and 2. a red VIX close the next day).
  3. $SPX: Closed below its lower BB on Sept 26th, then back above its lower BB on Sept 27th. This confirmed the SP500 BB based, SP500 Buy Signal.
  4. $NYAD: Closed higher on Sept 29th vs Sept 27th with a lower SP500 close, thus showing potential +DIV wrt SP500.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) count is P2-C3 playing out as a triple Zig-Zag major [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z], with the final (third) zig-zag major [Z] complete at 3610, near the major [Z]=[W] target of 3622. The initial target for minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 is at the 3950 pivot area. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 3610.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is P2-C3 playing out as a triple Zig-Zag major [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z], with the final (third) zig-zag major [Z] lower underway to the 50% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3505. Minor A of major [Z]-P2 completed at 3887. Minor B was the 50% Fib retrace to 4119. Now the final minor C of major [Z] down is headed for 3505. Within minor C, minute (1) ended at 3837, minute (2) at 3907, and minute (3) completed at 3623, just beyond the (3)=(1) target of 3625. Minute (4) wave retraced to just above the 38% Fib target at 3731 (hit 3737). The minute (5) wave lower is headed 50% Fib of P1 at 3505. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid below the minute (4) wave high of 3737.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that major [C]-P2-C3 headed the 62% Fib for P2 at 3190. Minor 1 of major [C] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor 2 was the 50% Fib rise from 3887 to 4119. Now the minor 3 wave is headed for a target a target at M3=1.62M1 = 3408. Within minor 3, minute (1) completed at 3837 and minute (2) retraced to the 38% Fib at 3907. Now minute (3) of minor 3 down is underway with an initial target at (3)=1.62(1) = 3450. Note: The alternate (red) wave count is valid below 3907.

House Keeping: I’m traveling out of town from the morning of Friday, Sept 30th through late evening on Monday, Oct 3rd. There will be no blog update on Friday and likely none on Monday. Next update will be on Tuesday, Oct 4th.

Have a great weekend!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

6 Responses to “September 29th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Exposure dropped to 12% long equities today.

    The last time it was this low was March 18th, 2020 when it hit 10% long exposure, just before the COVID low of March 23rd, 2022 at SP500 2192.


  2. pugsma said

    Today’s new intra-day low at 3610 and new closing low of 3640 allowed the SP500 Daily RSI to form a potential +DIV, joining the 60-min and weekly +DIV.

    Also, it allowed the $NYMO and $NYAD to form potential +DIV.

  3. pugsma said

    SP500 Friday close 3586.

    SP500 200-week SMA is 3589.

    Potential +DIV on SP500 weekly RSI and MACD.

    Potential NYMO +DIV. (Thanks to strength of broad based small cap Russell 2000)

    Potential VIX -DIV.

    The P2-C3 low could be in place at 3586 or at worst cases 3505 (50% Fib of P1).

    A move above 3887 is now critical to invalidate the alt(red) count.

  4. pugsma said

    For the alt (red) count the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is 3408.

    However, there are shorter minor 3 extensions, like minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1 at 3579.

    Thus Friday’s 3586 close could have ended minor 3 of major [C]-P2.

    IF minor 3 ended at 3586, then the minor 23%/38% Fib retrace targets are 3709 to 3789.

    Minor 4 breaking above the minor 1 low at 3887 would invalidate the alt(red) wave count.

  5. pugsma said

    NYMO up from -128 (early last week) to -20 early this morning with the SP500 much lower at 3617 vs 3673.

    The NYMO has been showing tremendous underlying broad market strength as the SP500 fell.

  6. pugsma said

    We are officially on a Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) watch! ZBT’s are extremely rare and often mark the initiation of a multi-year bull market (i. e. the start of P3-C3).

    The ZBT indicator closed below 0.40 at 0.38 on Friday, Sept 30th and will close today well above 0.40. Now we have 10 trading days including today to break above 0.615. That means on or before the close on Friday Oct 14th we need to hit 0.615.


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