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September 15th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 15, 2022

7:25 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3946 to 3933, dropped to 3924, rose to 3959 (day’s high), dropped to 3903, rose to 3945, fell to 3888 (day’s low) and closed at 3901.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts: (When the market is moving fast it’s best to zoom out to the daily and weekly charts. It’s important to remain flexible here and watch for several different potential outcomes, knowing the levels that valid and invalidate each scenario.)

The two wave counts shown on below on the charts have reasonable probability, but likely favor the alternate (red) counts as long as the SP500 price is below the 50-day SMA (4042), particularly if the slope turns negative. The P2-C2 bottom won’t be confirmed until closing above a rising 200-day SMA (4262).

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that major [2]-P3-C3 is headed toward at test of June low of 3637 at the 78%/88% Fibs of 3789 to 3723. The minor A wave of major [2] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor B wave was the 50% Fib retrace from 3887 to 4119. Now the minor C wave is headed for targets at C=0.62A = 3847, C=0.78A=3776 to C=A=3680. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above the P2-C3 low at 3637.
  2. The alternate (red) count is that major [C]-P2-C3 headed the 62% Fib for P2 at 3190. Minor 1 of major [C] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor 2 was the 50% Fib rise from 3887 to 4119. Now the minor 3 wave is headed for a target a target at M3=1.62M1 = 3488. Note: The alternate (red) wave count is valid below 4119.

House Keeping: I’m headed out of town tomorrow morning for the weekend. There won’t be a blog update on Friday, Sept 16th. The next blog update will be on Monday, Sept 19th.

Have a great weekend!

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

3 Responses to “September 15th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Michael Kalin said

    For the crash scenario (or waterfall), I would expect Bitcoin to crater to new lows. Some divergence on that wrt early Sept lows — holding up thus far.

  2. MS53 said

    FED/ATLANTA 3rd Qtr GDP estimate as of 9/15/22 has dropped to + 0.5%

  3. Charles Goettsche said

    The futures closed with a healthy premium,, as well.

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