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September 14th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 14, 2022

9:40 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 3933, dropped to 3919, rose to 3962 (day’s high), dropped to 3912 (day’s low) and rallied to close at 3946.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts: (When the market is moving fast it’s best to zoom out to the daily and weekly charts. It’s important to remain flexible here and watch for several different potential outcomes, knowing the levels that valid and invalidate each scenario.)

The three wave counts shown on below on the charts a reasonable probability, but likely favor the alternate (blue) or alternate (red) counts as long as the SP500 price is below the 50-day SMA (4041), particularly if the slope turns negative. The P2-C2 bottom won’t be confirmed until closing above a rising 200-day SMA (4265).

  1. The primary (white/green) count that major [2]-P3-C3 completed at 3887, just below the typical 62% Fib retrace of 3899. The major [3]-P3 wave is just getting started. The minute (1) of minor 1 of major [3] wave reached 4119. The minute (2) wave retraced to a deep 88% Fib at 3912. Not minute (3) should target 4288, where (3)=1.62(1). Note: The primary (white/green) wave remains valid above major [2]-P3 low at 3887.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is that major [2]-P3-C3 is headed toward the 78%/88% Fibs at 3789 to 3723. The minor A wave of major [2] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor B wave was the 50% Fib retrace from 3887 to 4119. Now the minor C wave is headed for targets at C=0.62A = 3847, C=0.78A=3776 to C=A=3680. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid above the P2-C3 low at 3637.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that major [C]-P2-C3 headed the 62% Fib for P2 at 3190. Minor 1 of major [C] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor 2 was the rise from 3887 to 4119. Now the minor 3 wave is headed for a target a target at M3=1.62M1 = 3488. Note: The alternate (red) wave count is valid below 4119.

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

2 Responses to “September 14th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Michael Kalin said

    Small caps stood out to me on the Monday massacre as holding their ground. Now they are outperforming on this mini-rally. Also of note, small cap growth is now + on the week. Looks at ARKK today. A wild market!

  2. MS53 said

    FED is batting 3 for 13 in “engineering” soft landings since 1946.

    https://www.schwab.com/learn/sites/g/files/eyrktu1246/files/022222_a_recession%20table.png

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