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August 29th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on August 29, 2022

5:05 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4058 to 4035, dropped quickly to 4022, rose to 4063 (day’s high) and closed at 4030.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  • NYMO: There is a potential +DIV on the NYMO wrt to the SP500 with a NYMO close above -62 (looks like the NYMO closed near -60).

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [1]-P3-C3 topped at 4326 and the major [2] correction down to the 50% Fib at 3983 is nearly complete. The minor A wave completed at 4120 and the minor B bounced to 4203, which was the 38%/50% Fib area of 4198/4223. The minor C=A target is at 3997 and the rising 50-day SMA at 4003. Note: Below this key support zone of 4003 to 3983, the alternate (blue) count takes over.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is that major [1]-P3-C3 topped at 4326 and the major [2] correction down to the 62%/78% Fib at 3899/3780 is underway. The minor A wave completed at 4120 and the minor B bounced to 4203, which was the 38%/50% Fib area of 4198/4223. The minor C wave down is underway, where C=1.62A at 3869 and C=2.0A at 3701. There is also a bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern on the 60-min chart with head at 4326, neckline at 4080 and target of 4080 – (4080-4326) = 3834. This H&S was triggered on the decisive break below 4080. Note: This alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the P2-C3 low at 3667.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

25 Responses to “August 29th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Looks like the NYMO +DIV wrt to the SP500 might have survived (won’t know until about 6 pm EST). If it did and the SP500 can hold the 3893 to 4003 key support area tomorrow and close higher, then the major [2] low could be in place.

  2. pugsma said

    The $CPC (CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio) closed a 1.22 on Monday.

    The is the highest reading since the 1.30 seg at the June 16th 3637 P2-C3 bottom.

  3. pugsma said

    As I mentioned yesterday, The VIX opening and closing above its upper BB (like yesterday) has a great track record of producing a lower low the next day.

    Depending on the close today, there is a shot at the Trifecta SP500 Buy setup. SP500 below its BB is likely and VIX above its BB is likely. However I doubt the NYMO will close under its BB today unless there is a continued sell off into the close.


    • pugsma said

      Counter intuitively, the more bullish setup today is a continued sell-off into the close.

      • dgs said

        What if we have a complete reversal and we finish in the green, will that signal major [2] is in place?

      • pugsma said

        No. It’s never that simple in TA.

        Bulls don’t stand a shot at putting in the major [2] until they can close above the H&S neckline at 4080.

        The Trifecta SP500 buy signal is a VERY powerful TA based signal I pioneered in 2009 and it’s track record at finding key bottoms is excellent.

  4. pugsma said

    Then there are some really bad technical things about closing on the lows day below 3968 (morning low).

    1) Loss of the 50-day SMA (4009) after reclaiming it in mid-July.
    2) 13-day EMA (4125) into 34-day EMA (4098) bear cross after bull cross in late July.

    Any close on the lows today would need to be reversed quickly by a close above 4080 to turn bullish.

    New lows below 3637 would become much more probable if not.

    • pugsma said

      The next 3 trading days into the Labor Day weekend are going to be critical.

    • pugsma said

      Also more warning signs to watch relative to legit bullish IHS pattern on the daily chart form by the major [2] Right Shoulder.

      1) Right shoulder should not be larger than Left shoulder (367 points). 4326 – 367 = 3958. We are at 3969 today, so a critical are to hold above.

      2) Daily volume should be less during Right Shoulder formation. This is definitely the case as the daily are lower now than during left shoulder area in May. Thus one is bullish leaning.

      • MS53 said

        Thanks. Always thought it just had to be above 3810 left shldr.
        Another copy, paste, print !!

      • pugsma said

        Good news today and yesterday were relatively like volume sell-offs helping with the potential IHS lower volume right shoulder above key 3959 area.

  5. pugsma said

    Remember that for the 61 cases triggered by 21 bullish breadth thrusts during August, there were 2 of 61 (3.3%) that had draw downs that would break the June 3637 low. Those two cases ended near the equivalent of 3500.

    Even with that fact, All 61 cases ended up and a average of +20% (from 4280) one year later (August 2023).

    • pugsma said

      These max drawn downs ended within 30 trading days of the August 12th signal date. Thus the maximum draw down is by Monday Sept 26th.

  6. pugsma said

    NYMO intra-day right now at -85. But it’s BB was at -80 yesterday at the close and will likely end today near -100. It will be difficult (if not impossible) to get the NYMO to close below its lower BB today.

  7. pugsma said

    Basically a “no-man’s land” close.

    SP500 daily did finally close below its BB setting up a SP500 Buy trigger.

    VIX still settling but it did open beneath its upper BB and might have just barely closed above its BB setting up a SP500 Buy trigger.

    NYMO looks to have close right near -80 and will not be below its lower BB that was -80 yesterday and will be near -100 later tonight (6pm EST) when it settles.

    • pugsma said

      OK the VIX just settled unchanged at 26.21 vs a upper BB of 26.20.

      Unchanged VIX on a -1% down day on SP500 is bullish.

  8. pugsma said

    4080 is the battle ground line the bulls must close above to set the major [2] low. That’s the H&S neckline and the area where the falling 13-day EMA (4124) and flat 34-day EMA (4997) reside.

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