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August 24th, 2022: SP500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on August 24, 2022

5:40 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 4128, dropped quickly to 4120 (day’s low), rose to 4156 (day’s high) and closed at 4140.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3 completed at 4236, just below where minor 3=2.0*minor at 4340 and at the 200-day SMA (4326). The minor 4 wave likely ended at 4120 or could reach the 38% Fib at 4096. Ultimately once the minor 4 wave completes, the minor 5 of major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4405 to 4429, where minor 5=minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) count minor 4 of major [1] wave up remains valid above the minor 1 high of 3946. However, minor 4 should ideally hold the recent 4080 low, which is just below the 38% Fib at 4096.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is that major [1]-P3-C3 topped at 4326 and the major [2] correction down to the 50%/62% Fib at 3983/3899 is underway. The first minor A wave likely complete at 4120 and now a minor B bounce to the 38%/50% Fib at 4198/4223 is underway. Once minor B completes, the minor C wave down will drop towards 3982. Note: This alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below 4326 will be confirmed on a break of the 4080 low.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

11 Responses to “August 24th, 2022: SP500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    I just updated the MSFT daily chart in the 2022 CCA Service: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/

  2. Michael Croghan said

    Hi Steve, do you have any concern that the rally since June has perfectly back-tested the broader Head/Shoulder neckline at ~4278 on the weekly SPX that has been forming since Sep 2021? Would it be correct to assume that the HS formation will provide the fuel to continue the rocket up on your bullish count? Thank you and apologies if you have answered this before. -MC

  3. pugsma said

    Early messaging (pre-Powell) coming out of Jackson Hole is get to 3.5% and then pause.

    • pugsma said

      Current Fed Funds Rate 2.25-2.50

      Future FOCM Announcement:
      Sept 22nd – 0.50 (2.75-3.00)
      Nov 2nd – 0.25 (3.00-3.25)
      Dec 14th – 0.25 (3.25-3.50)

  4. pugsma said

    Now that the SP500 rebounded from 4120 to 4184 (just shy of the 38% Fib at 4198), the 4120 level must hold for the primary (white/green) count. If it breaks 4120, then the alt (blue) count will likely plays out to below 4000 for major [2].

  5. pugsma said

    It promises to be a VERY interesting Sept/Oct time frame.

    Certain things like ARKK and BTC have already began a major [2] wave lower and even have the possibility to break their respective June lows.

    While stronger indices like SP500, IWM and QQQ should hold their respective June lows.

  6. pugsma said

    HYG, High Yield Corp Bond, forming a bullish IHS pattern?

    HYG typical leafs the SP500.

    https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1562861297922080768?s=21&t=_PYQ3NoBKs4dl0jmJroqMA

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