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August 22nd, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on August 22, 2022

5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4228 to 4195, dropped steady all day to 4130 (day’s low) and closed at 4138.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

NYMO: The NYMO closed below its lower BB for the second consecutive day and well below -40 near -60. This is a potential trigger for a BIG up on the third day (tomorrow, Tuesday 8/23).

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3 likely completed at 4236, just below where minor 3=2.0*minor at 4340 and at the 200-day SMA (4326). The minor 4 wave could have ended at 4130 or could reach the 38% Fib at 4096. Ultimately once the minor 4 wave completes, the minor 5 of major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4405 to 4439, where minor 5=minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) count minor 4 of major [1] wave up remains valid above the minor 1 high of 3946. However, minor 4 should ideally hold the recent 4080 low, which is just below the 38% Fib at 4096.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

7 Responses to “August 22nd, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    If you are looking for “worse case” bearish outcomes going forward:

    Here are the 6 month draw downs of the bottom 1/3 (cases 41-61) of the 61 case bull breadth study nailed down on Aug 12th. They average near 3800 and 2 of 61 (3% probability) slightly under cut 3637.

    https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital/status/1561885695588896769?s=21&t=4QTWs_NkcJfEbh4lQkEweg

    Of course 40 of 61 cases (66% probability) have much more bullish (much less) drawn downs that these wisest cases scenarios.

  2. pugsma said

    All eyes on 4096 and 4080 today.

    These levels need to hold for the primary (white/green) count minor 4 of major [1]-P3-C3-SCV.

    Below those levels and the major [1]-P3-C3-SCV top is in place at 4326 (alt blue count).

  3. pugsma said

    House Keeping: Todays small range day between 4124 and 4159 didn’t change the charts or wave count. No charts updates required tonight.

  4. pugsma said

    The NYMO has now closed three straight days below its BB and consecutive days below -40 and below its BB. That second condition is the potential trigger for a big move up in the SP500.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print

    • stevesumma said

      What else are you on the lookout for that suggests 2vis over?

      • pugsma said

        As I’ve said a few times here the past three days, minor 4 must end above the 38% Fib retrace of minor 3 at 4096 and the swing low at 4080. Below that it’s a major [2] wave down to a 50% Fib retrace of major [1].

        Todays low at 4119 closed the large 4123 to 4183 gap up post July CPI report.

  5. Michael Kalin said

    The $vix slammed into a brick wall and reversed hard! Small caps showing the way forward!

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