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August 16th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on August 16, 2022

4:45 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4297 to 4291, quickly hit 4278 (day’s low), then rose steadily to 4326 (day’s high), dropped to 4291 and closed at 4304.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3 likely completed at 4236, just below where minor 3=2.0*minor at 4340 and at the 200-day SMA (4326). The minor 4 retrace targets are at the 23%/38% Fibs of 4187 to 4096. Wave 4 could form a triangle to alternate with the minor 2 zig-zag. Ultimately once the minor 4 wave completes, the minor 5 of major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4405 to 4496, where minor 5=minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) count minor 4 of major [1] wave up remains valid above the minor 1 high of 3946. However, minor 4 should ideally hold the recent 4080 low, which is just below the 38% Fib at 4096.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is a slight variant of the primary (white/green) count that has minor 3 extending higher towards minor 3=2.23*minor 1 at 4411. Once minor 3 completes at 4411, minor 4 should retrace to the 23% Fib at 4252, before the minor 5=minor 1 end at 4562. :

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

4 Responses to “August 16th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Daniel Dufner said

    Hi Steve. I just wanted to revisit the expanded flat scenario that you mentioned earlier today. In the event of recession 2nd half of next year with QT ramped up, but interest rates at the 3.5-4% level does it make sense that since presumably the hiking would be done or all but done that those with limited options in their 401k’s or 403b’s who want more of a return than what they could get in their money market options could find a more profitable refuge in high quality bond funds that they couldn’t find in this year’s bear market decline?

  2. MS53 said

    They may also take a 75 since they’ll be boxed out for an increase at the next meeting six days before the midterm elections.

  3. MS53 said

    Steve Weiss being a perfect example of that aptitude.

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