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August 5th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on August 5, 2022

1:05 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4151 to 4116, quickly hit 4107 (day’s low ) then reversed to full the 4151 gap…

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665 and the P3-C3 wave up to new all-time high is just getting underway. Minor 1 of major [1]-P3 completed at 3946. The minor 2 wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fibs retrace area of 3754 to 3705. The minor 3 wave competed at 4167, where minor 3 = 1.38*minor 1. The minor 4 retrace target is the 23% Fib at 4065, but maybe playing out a triangle that will hold ther recent 4080 low (see the 15-min chart for the minor 4 wave option details). Ultimately once minor 4 complete, the minor 5 of major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4257 where minor 5=0.62*minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) count minor 4 of major [1] wave up remains valid above the minor 1 high of 3946.
  2. The new alternate (blue) count is a slight variant of the primary (white/green) count that has the minor 4 of major [1] low at 4080 and the final minor 5 wave up complete at 4167. The major [2] wave down is underway and should target the 38%/50% Fibs are 3966/3902. Note: The alternate (blue) count is invalid above 4167.

Have a great weekend!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

24 Responses to “August 5th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    The triangle is set to pop on Monday.

  2. pugsma said

    Another great video from Chris C showing 14 new market bottoming historical signals that triggered this week.


  3. pugsma said

    The QQQ has already broken above its early June IT high.

    The IWM is set to open this morning above its early June IT high.

    The SP500 is set to open very near (4170 vs 4177) it’s early June IT high.

    The text book definition of a key market bottom reversal is to set a new low with +DIV (check) then break above the previous IT high (check).

  4. pugsma said

    The best Bullish IHS patterns are developed with an upward sloping neckline with a much higher right shoulder than left shoulder.

    1) Major [1]-P3 breaking above 4177 sets and upward sloping IHS neckline.

    2) Major [2]-P3 holding well above 3810 sets a much higher right shoulder.

  5. pugsma said

    Alt(blue) count with major [1]-P3 top at 4167 is dead. Major [1] continue higher after a minor 4 triangle wave.

  6. pugsma said

    FYI, the primary (white/greeen) count is going to be upgraded to be even more bullish near term. This move up to 4222 is still part of minor 3 of major [1], where minor 3=1.62*minor 1.

  7. pugsma said

    Check the 7 Bullish TA signals Milton shows here:


    • MS53 said

      Wow, thats 5k+ in the SPX in a year !!

      • pugsma said

        If major [1] ended right here at 4186, the IHS target is 4186 + (4186-3637) = 4715.

        But if major [1] stretches closer to the 200-day SMA (4339), then the IHS target will stretch to near 5000.

  8. pugsma said

    I’m still one of the only Technical Analysts in the world who had the 3637 bottom in place and the markets headed higher over the next 1, 2, 5 and 10 years.

    The market shorts and those in cash are going to suffer.

  9. Michael Kalin said

    How much consideration do you give to the 2/10 yield curve, which is about as inverted as it gets. There hasn’t been a case of this much inversion, without significant economic impacts within a year or so. Thoughts?

    • pugsma said

      The 2yr to 10 yr yield is a terrible indicator of a recession. It’s wrong about 50% of the time. You’d do as well with flipping a coin.

      What matters is the 3-month to 10-year yield inversion. It’s 100% correct at predicting a coming recession within a years time. This reliable indicator is not current inverted.


  10. MS53 said

    green nymo, red SPX so far.Day end matters for a divergence,

    • pugsma said

      I’d be very careful trying to use one day changes in NYMO as any type of treading guide. Particularly with elevated NYMO.

      The NYMO is setting up a -DIV with the recent higher SP500 closing highs.

  11. pugsma said

    The 15-min chart pattern now looks more like a 3-push up ending diagonal top at 4186.

    Minor 4 wave down to a 23% fib retrace of 3722 to 4186 move at 4079 could be the outcome.

  12. pugsma said

    I just keep day trading the dips to pops. Then resting in cash. Have to be properly set up for the coming major [2] big pull-back and then major [3] launch much higher.

    • pugsma said

      The bulls used the last ST buy the dip coupon on Friday at 4107 with the move above 4177 today, as predicted by the NYSE A-D Line cumulative.

  13. pugsma said

    Note that with the much stronger than expected July NFP on Friday, IF the July CPI number disappoints on Wednesday, then there is asymmetric risk to a big downside move in the SP500 (ie major [2] wave lower).

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