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July 29th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 29, 2022

5:40 m EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4071 to 4085, rose to 4120, dropped to 4092, rallied to 4140 (day’s high) and closed at 4130.

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665 and the P3-C3 wave up to new all-time high is just getting underway. Minor 1 of major [1]-P3 completed at 3946. The minor 2 wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fibs retrace area of 3754 to 3705. The minor 3 wave target is at 4340, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1. Within minor 3, the minute (1) wave completed at 4012 and minute (2) wave completed at 3911 near the 38% Fib of 3902. The minute (3) of minor 3 wave up is underway with a target 4268, where (3)=1.23(1). Ultimately the major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4488 area into years end. Note: The primary (white/green) count minute (3) of minor 3 of major [1] wave up remains valid above the minute (2) minor 3 low at 3911.
  2. The alternate (red) count is that major [Y]-P2-C3 completed at 3637. The P2 wave is playing out as a double Zig-Zag major [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z]. Next is a second major [X] wave that will retrace to the 50%/62% Fib at 4137 (hit today) to 4257. Minor A of major [X] competed at 3946. The minor B wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fib area of 4754 to 4705. The minor C wave up is underway, with the minor C=1.38A target at 4138 (hit today), which is near the 50% Fib retrace and the minor C=1.62A target at 4223, which is near the 62% Fib retrace of 4257. Once major [X] completes, there will another leg down for major [Z] towards at least the 50% Fib retrace at 3505 and possibly as low as the 62% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3190. Note: The alternate (red) count is fully confirmed on a break below 3637, but a break below 3911 would be an early indication.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

13 Responses to “July 29th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Frankly I consider using the $NYMO absolute value alone to call a market top a fools errand.

    However it did work the past two times.

    https://twitter.com/cyclesfan/status/1553124253494648832?s=21&t=WZOj0hb6utJ4_ZG6H9tMGA

  2. pugsma said

    Depends what time frame. The 60-min chart RSI at 80 will almost always require a -DIV to form in order to get a SP500 topping area. So we’ll need to see a decent pull-back soon and another run higher to get that 60-min chart RSI -DIV.

    Those will be waves minute (4) and (5) after we find the end of minute (3).

  3. CornHusker said

    With that winning Mega Millions ticket sold in Illinois I was thinking there was a chance the pugsma.com site might be closed down over the weekend and never to be heard from again. 🙂

  4. pugsma said

    For the primary (white/green) I believe the SP500 is entering a minute wave (4) of minor 3 here. Don’t expect much of retrace.

    I also think minor 3, minor 4 and minor 5 are going to make much progress higher. I’d except this major [1]-P3-C3 wave to end just slightly above 4200.

    • pugsma said

      Note that 50-day SMA now at 3925 is rising for the first time since the 4819 top in early January.

      I’d expect the major [2]-P2 wave retrace to hold above this rising 50-day SMA.

      • pugsma said

        I’m expecting the major [1] top and the major [2] retrace to complete a large Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) bottom as can be seen on the 4-hr chart.

        • pugsma said

          Major [1] should get above 4177 and produce an upward sloping IHS neckline.

          And major [2] should retrace well above the left shoulder low at 3810. Again the rising 50-day SMA (3925) should contain the right shoulder.

        • pugsma said

          Timing wise the major [1] top above 4177 should occur by mid-August and major [2] low above 3925 by late September.

  5. pugsma said

    FYI the probability of the alt(red) count has moved for 36% two weeks ago to now below 20%. If the SP500 breaks above 4177, as expected it will soon the alt(red) count probability will drop below 10% and it will be removed from the charts.

  6. pugsma said

    Added an UBER chart into the 2022 CCA Service ahead of tomorrow mornings earnings.

    https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/

  7. pugsma said

    I just updated the NVDA charts in the 2022 CCA Service.

    https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/

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