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July 27th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 27, 2022

5:10 m EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3921 to 3951, rose to 3892, hesitated for bit and then rallied to 4039 (today’s high) and closed at 4023.

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665 and the P3-C3 wave up to new all-time high is just getting underway. Minor 1 of major [1]-P3 completed at 3946. The minor 2 wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fibs retrace area of 3754 to 3705. The minor 3 wave target is at 4340, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1. Within minor 3, the minute (1) wave completed at 4012 and minute (2) wave completed at 3911 near the 38% Fib of 3902. The minute (3) of minor 3 wave up is underway with a target 4268, where (3)=1.23(1). Ultimately the major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4488 area into years end. Note: The primary (white/green) count minute (3) of minor 3 of major [1] wave up remains valid above the minute (2) minor 3 low at 3911.
  2. The alternate (red) count is that major [Y]-P2-C3 completed at 3637. The P2 wave is playing out as a double Zig-Zag major [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z]. Next is a second major [X] wave that retrace retrace to the 38%/50% Fib at 4017 to 4137. Minor A of major [X] competed at 3946. The minor B wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fib area of 4754 to 4705. The minor C=A target is at 4031, which is near the 38% Fib retrace is 4017 and he minor C=1.38A target is 4138, which is near the 50% Fib retrace of 4137. Once major [X] completes, there will another leg down for major [Z] towards at least the 50% Fib retrace at 3505 and possibly as low as the 62% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3190. Note: The alternate (red) count is fully confirmed on a break below 3637, but a break below 3911 would be an early indication.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

47 Responses to “July 27th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    If you look at the 60-min charts for the SP500, IWM and QQQ the waves since the mid-June low look choppy (corrective) in nature forming a bear flag pattern.

    The daily charts are showing a potential -DIV on the RSI.

    • pugsma said

      NYMO (61) also closed today with a potential -DIV with new SP500 closing high at 4023 vs last Thurs June 21st with NYMO (65) at SP500 (3999).

    • WaterRock said

      “corrective in nature.” I am very interested in this comment as I have the same concern. Looks corrective to me too. Fits with seasonality . . . Are there possible higher red count targets than the 1.38 @ 4138?
      Looking at the charts I wonder if we exceed this level to the upside (~ 4191 pivot?) and have a brutal sell-off into Sep/Oct.

  2. Guy Wilson said

    Thx for everything Pug! Is there still anything that could point to the blue alt?
    I would also like to wish you all a really beutiful summer!

  3. pugsma said

    Mike Wilson sticking to his guns on the lower low than 3636 call.

    “Market jump after Fed rate hike is a ‘trap,’ Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson warns investors”

    Market jump after Fed rate hike is a ‘trap,’ Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson warns investors

  4. pugsma said

    It’a a recession. Now how deep will it go, before the Fed pivots?

    “GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight decline and a strong recession signal”

    “The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.”

    https://twitter.com/cnbc/status/1552635691863097348?s=21&t=0fjLRf4YUiVQa4H-SEEsrg

  5. pugsma said

    The bulls 2.5 of the 3 things I said were required to keep the IT rally alive.

    1) Better than feared tech earnings and OK forward guidance

    2) A Fed that at least “talked” of data dependent slowing of rate hikes as early as Sept

    3) A 2Q-2022 of -0.9% that was better than Q1 at -1.6%

    The 3) item is only a partial win.

    • pugsma said

      There will be a lot hope now pinned on a Fed pivot on interest rate hikes as the economy likely continues to determinate into the fall.

      And QT is set it reach -95T $ per month in September continuing into the end of 2023.

      • pugsma said

        The markets now have to navigate the various uncertainties (inflation, economic data, weak seasonality) for nearly two months before the next Fed meeting in late September.

      • pugsma said

        The Fed likely doesn’t blink until there are several months of sub-Zero NFP data along with several months of falling CPI.

        They will get to see two months (July and Aug) before the next FOMC in late Sept.

  6. pugsma said

    The Atlanta Fed Real GDP model nailed it! Their latest reading was -1.2% yesterday. Actual number came in at -0.9% today.

    The average US economist has it at +1.0%. They were way off!

    https://twitter.com/atlantafed/status/1552319510346190850?s=21&t=0fjLRf4YUiVQa4H-SEEsrg

    • pugsma said

      We can now reliably watch the weekly Atlanta Real GDP number to see if the recession is deepening or improving during Q3. That’s key.

  7. pugsma said

    I just updated the AAPL chart before the earnings announcement tonight after the close.

    2022 Custom Chart Archive Service: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/

  8. pugsma said

    House Keeping: No chart update is required tonight as everything is right in line with the Wednesday update. I’ll do an update on Friday, to close out with the weekly and monthly charts for July.

  9. pugsma said

    Interesting note:

    1) The March bear market rally from 4115 to 4637 was +12.7%

    2) A +12.7% rally from the June low of 3637 is at 4098. Todays high 4079.

    • pugsma said

      Thus a move above 4098 and especially above 4177 (IT swing high) means it is different this time and would be extremely bullish per the primary wave count.

      • William Waggoner said

        Taking into account your latest comments from last night/this morning on the wave counts does this extremely bullish scenario above 4177 still apply?

  10. pugsma said

    Jim Cramer is making an ass of himself on CNBC right now acting everyone should be all-in and on margin on stocks. He’s ringing the bell for this move up!

    • pugsma said

      I’ll be selling into 100% cash everything I’ve accumulated since mid-June into this AH pop and into the open tomorrow (my call options).

      • pugsma said

        I made a few fun little weekly options (expiring Friday) 7/29) trades today placed just before the close. Two potential winners AAPL and AMZN (big win) and two complete losers INTC and ROKU. Fortunately I put more $’s into AAPL and AMZN.

        Hopefully prices hold up on AAPL into the open tomorrow into my $164 target.

        AMZN was a totally swag as I felt they were going to impress after taking such a large charge off last quarter. They are up +13% AH!

        My significant investment/trading $’s in UPRO and TQQQ love this pop the past few days as well and they are getting completely cashed out. No more investments for me until after September. I’ll still make some VST trades.

        https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/img_3694.jpg

      • Randy said

        Hi Steve,

        Seems like by your actions, you are leaning on a sell off after this latest uptrend ends? What do you project as a buyable low in September?

  11. pugsma said

    Another interesting TA fact today is the VIX closed below its 200-day for the first time since the March 4637 top area. Before that the VIX also did this at the 4819 top area.

  12. Sal said

    Thanks for all the advice Steve. +1

  13. pugsma said

    Cha-Ching Cha-Ching! $$$ I’m now out of everything.

    The primary count needs some re-work. Expecting a major low in September, that may or may not break below 3637.

    • pugsma said

      I like a leading diagonal type look for the primary (white/green) count revision. Minor 3 of major [1]-P3 wrapping up soon. Then a minor 4 to set the -DIV and one more push higher to top it by mid-August.

      • Robert Warmington said

        I really like this set up. as it seems to fit with your bottom for Bitcoin near the end of Sept. Thanks

    • pugsma said

      I’m even selling off the last of crypto mining hardware today. I sold a bigger piece of the mining hardware in early June to convert those $ directly into BTC at $19,500.

      I’ve mined enough ETH since May 2021 to pay off my original mining hardware costs with a nice profit.

      Now everyone going forward from BTC at $19,500 is pure profit for me.

    • orion.colorado said

      Fwiw: Thanks for the additional background. I was reverting to cash as able yesterday and it was nice to know I was in good company when I checked in here later in the day.

  14. pugsma said

    Fun Friday Q:

    1) Who’s playing the record breaking $1.1B Mega Millions Lottery tonight?

    2) How are you risking?

    Me and family are in for $30 (15 tix) 😎

    • rick987ishere said

      I’m participating in a group among several coworkers. If we win big, plan to retire eatly. I understand I have better odds of getting struck by lightning.

  15. pugsma said

    Imagine if are a ARKK investor still down -72% today vs QQQ down -23% from the peak.

    Cathie Wood literally owns nothing but garbage stocks EXCEPT TSLA.

    She be down -85% vs -72% with TSLA.

    • pugsma said

      I recall several Tech specific sector (like optics only) funds in 1999 that where down -85 to -95% in 2000. They never recovered their big losses.

    • pugsma said

      Every time one her ARKK stock picks drops -25 to -30% on bad earnings, we see a news flash that she bought $50M more!

      We need a meme of her sitting by a bonfire with investor cash tossing it on to the fire.

  16. pugsma said

    The QQQ just broke above the early June IT high at 314.56.

    The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative is set to close today above where the SP500 closed above 4177. Thus the SP500 is likely to break above 4177 on this current move up.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

    • pugsma said

      Looks like a move up the 62% Fib at 4257 is in play here for alt red too.

      • pugsma said

        The bulls are crushing the bears to death here. The bears are covering in droves. 4200+ is all be a given early next week.

    • pugsma said

      Monday August 1st see even more $’s poured into the markets by investment funds. Another 50+ points Monday is likely

      • Robert Warmington said

        Does the NYSE A-D line Cumulative need to close today above where the S & P 500 closed above 4177 for this move up next week to happen? Thanks

        • pugsma said

          Yes it’s it very likely to do this today, unless there is a final hour sell off.

          • Robert Warmington said

            Wow, if the S%P would close above this 4177 mark, how would this change this whole scenario? Or would it?

          • pugsma said

            The primary (white/green) count is pointing towards 4488 for major [1]-P3-C3 by as early as September. I’m keeping that intact.

  17. kazoom1618 said

    SPX and VIX both closed outside daily BBs. NYMO squeaked just inside BBs.

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