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July 25th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 25, 2022

4:20 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 3962, traded sideways all day between 3943 and 3975 and closed at 3966.

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Seasonality: During the 4-year Presidential Cycle, the SP-500 typical bottoms in late September.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665 and the P3-C3 wave up to new all-time high is just getting underway. Minor 1 of major [1]-P3 completed at 3946. The minor 2 wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fibs retrace area of 3754 to 3705. The minor 3 wave target is at 4223, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. Within minor 3, the minute (1) wave completed at 3902 and minute (2) retraced nearly 50% to 3819. The minute (3) wave up is underway with target at 4111, where (3)=1.62(1). Ultimately the major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4417 area into years end. Note: The primary (white/green) count minute (3) of minor 3 of major [1] wave up remains valid above the minute (2) of minor 3 low at 3819.
  2. The alternate (blue) count variation to the primary (white/green) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3 completed at 3999. The minute (2) wave should now retrace to the 50% Fib at 3867. Note: The alternate (blue) count minute (2) of minor 3 wave up remains valid above the minor 2 low at 3722.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that major [Y]-P2-C3 completed at 3637. The P2 wave is playing out as a double Zig-Zag major [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z]. Next is a major [X] wave that will retrace to the 38% Fib at 4017. Minor A of major [X] competed at 3946. The minor B wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fib area of 4754 to 4705. The minor C=A target is at 4031 to complete major [X] and the 38% Fib retrace is 4017. On Friday July 22nd the SP500 hit 4012 and is only 19 points short of the 4031 target and hit the upper down channel line. Thus the major [X] could be complete. Once major [X] completes, there will another leg down for major [Z] towards at least the 50% Fib retrace at 3505 and possibly as low as the 62% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3190. Note: The alternate (red) count is confirmed on a break below 3722 and then below 3637.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

6 Responses to “July 25th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    I added the seasonality chart in the post above. The seasonality definitely favors the alternate (red) count looking for new low in September near the 50% Fib retrace of P1 at 3505 for end of P2-C3

    • Sal said

      Not tracking so well this year so far…..

      • pugsma said

        You look at these seasonalities charts on relative directional basis. It’s tracking quite well directionally. It called the rally in March and June/July.

  2. pugsma said

    Attention Walmart Shoppers, 10% Discount in Aisle 9!

    https://twitter.com/randautomation/status/1551679003848753154?s=21&t=mZHBTGT9ThlVA6e1BkbGnQ

    A few more of these big retail forward earning cuts and the alt(red) it is…

  3. pugsma said

    I just updated the MSFT chart ahead of earnings tonight in the 2022 Custom Chart Archive Service.

    https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/

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