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    SCI-SCV, SCA-SCC: Super Cycle
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July 19th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 19, 2022

12:00 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3830 to 3861, rose steady all morning to 3910…

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665 and the P3-C3 wave up to new all-time high is just getting underway. Minor 1 of major [1]-P3 completed at 3946. The minor 2 wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fibs retrace area of 3754 to 3705. The minor 3 wave target is at 4223, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. Within minor 3, the minute (1) wave completed at 3902 and minute (2) retraced nearly 50% to 3819. The minute (3) wave up is underway with target at 4111, where (3)=1.62(1). Ultimately the major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4417 area into years end. Note: The primary (white/green) count minor 2 of major [1] wave remains valid above 3637.
  2. The alternate (red) count is that major [A]-P2-C3 completed at 3637. Next is a major [B]-P2 wave that will retrace to the 38% Fib at 4086. Minor A of major [B] competed at 3946. The minor B wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fib area of 4754 to 4705. The minor C=A target is at 4031 to complete major [B] and the 38% Fib retrace is 4086. Withing minor C, the minute (1) wave completed at 3902 and minute (2) retraced nearly 50% to 3819. The minute (3) wave up is underway with target at 4041, where (3)=1.23(1). Once major [B]-P2 completes, there will another large leg down for major [C]-P2 toward the 62% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3190. Note: The alternate (red) count minor B of major [B] wave remains valid above 3637.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

28 Responses to “July 19th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. stevesumma said

    Doesn’t your prior blue count remain in play until 3919?

    • pugsma said

      There were indications, like IWM relative strength to SP500, that make this break above 3919 a foregone outcome.

      Embrace the new IT bull market and likely the continued LT bull market (ie P3-C3 up up up…)

  2. pugsma said

    Bears got punked a 2nd time yesterday.

    Freeing great today…go primary count go!

    https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1549435659693301761?s=21&t=nGs1Nhp0kz5b6-sk-FKgkA

  3. pugsma said

    By my primary (white/green) wave count, we are in a minute (3) of minor 3 wave here. My white labels and circles are VERY conservative upside targets.

    The amount of money that’s in cash or short right is LARGE and the bearish sentiment is beyond extreme. Rocket fuel..

  4. pugsma said

    The PUG Toro has trampled The Cobra! 😝😎

    Viva Los Toros! 💰💰💰

    • pugsma said

      What Day! Everything up 3%! What a glorious Day!

      • Stephen Schneider said

        Indeed! It was a bit rough there for a while. Let’s hope this thing continues to rip!

        S.

      • William Waggoner said

        SPX, IWM, QQQ, INDU, TRAN all closed above 50 SMA
        IWM, QQQ, TRAN all had intraday & closing highs > late June
        SPX, INDU both had closing highs > late June

  5. pugsma said

    I’ve been following Cobra almost as long as I’ve been blogging my TA (Since year 2009).

    I kind of feel bad for Cobra. He does great at pulling up historical stats on the market that can help be a guide. However, he doesn’t use any 2nd level thinking in analyzing those historical stats. Cobra has just kept saying there is 88% chance of a lower low that 3637, even after weeks have gone by and the data has clearly changed and needs re-evaluated. Like I did last week and again early on Monday of this week.

    Pugsma said
    July 18, 2022 at 9:38 am e
    So early last week I started to discuss the internal details of the Cobra 88% probability (49 of 56 cases since 1994) of lower lower than June 16th at 3637.

    We are now starting the 5th week since this historical stat without a lower low than 3637.

    I told you most of the 49 cases with a lower low occurred in the first or second week. Then the rest of the cases (except 1) had the lower low within 4 weeks.

    Thus the odds have clearly flipped into the bulls favor. We only have 1 case of a lower low after 4 weeks that occurs at 7 weeks and we have 6 cases that the low was in.

    Thus a lower low than 3637 probability 1/7 = 15% (Alternate blue count)
    Chances of low at 3637 is the low is 6/7 = 85% probability (primary white/green count)

  6. pugsma said

    NSYE 90% upvol day.

    https://twitter.com/walterdeemer/status/1549490911024975873?s=21&t=nGs1Nhp0kz5b6-sk-FKgkA

  7. Randy said

    Steve … any detailed count for this minute 3 wave up? Trying to gauge the kind of possible pullback. Thanks.

    • pugsma said

      It’s in i-(3) of minor 3 and might not have peaked this wave i-(3) yet. 3950 pivot is the near-term hurdle to clear for this wave.

    • pugsma said

      And always remember in a bull wave (3) of 3, the surprises are to the upside and typically gap up and go.

  8. jrw said

    “The bear market is over” per this “perfect” statistic

    https://twitter.com/jasongoepfert/status/1549483829357727745?s=21&t=Skzkvh-4LwIFhEjGhAeEmw

  9. pugsma said

    The SP500 just hit 3957 and broke above the range of 3946 to 3722, that’s been in place for a month so be the 3647 bottom.

    The minimum target over the next month is 3946 – (3946-3723) = 4170.

    Both the primary (white/green) and alt(red) or heading to that target area.

    • pugsma said

      The maximum dip I see on the path to 4170+ is a pull-back to back-test the 50-day SMA at 3920 for ii-(3) of minor 3.

      However we likely still haven’t seen the top of i-(3) of minor 3 at 3957.

  10. pugsma said

    In a little over a week on Thursday, July 28th the first look at 2Q-2022 GDP will be announced.

    Leading economist forecast is an average of +2% with a range of +1 to +3%.

    However the historically accurate Atlanta Fed RealGDP predictor sits at -1.6%. Meaning combined with the -1.5% GDP of Q1-2022, the US economy is already in a mild recession.

    Next week is going to very telling…

    https://twitter.com/atlantafed/status/1549410860220792833?s=21&t=ROhz-MwRArJtFohCEe3a5A

    • pugsma said

      On July 28th, Any Q2-2022 GDP above -1.5% is a positive trend from -1.5% of Q1-2022

      Any number above 0.0% will mean the US is not in a recession. The stock market is priced at recession levels now. The markets should scream higher on a print above 0.0%.

  11. charles blood said

    Steve,
    I wonder if the traditional definition of a recession is not the best measure of the health of the economy today.In our local, still cant find enough people to work. Everyone has orders they have placed for goods and services and you are told to wait weeks or even months! Contractors are backed up and building of new homes or updating are waiting to be completed and filled with furnishings that haven’t in some cases even been ordered I am told.

    • pugsma said

      You don’t change the rules in the middle of the game. A recession is at least two consecutive quarters of negative GPD.

      Now if you want to discuss what’s happening in the labor market, that’s fair. I’ve had this discussion often with my adult childer.

      In my opinion the labor remains very tight because the baby boom generation, and to some extent my generation X, have cashed out and retired. The millennials (my kids generation) have an inherent allergy to work, at least in the traditional sense. The work from home, trade crypt, and generally hustle their way to very source of income. They are not working in restaurants and very low paying service jobs. They never will. Automation is the solution. Self-serve Kiosks fortunately replacing them.

      • William Zelnis said

        inherent allergy to work! that is hilarious! My 18 is in week 5 of Naval Boot camp. I’ll swing by and see you Sept 16th….graduation. HA Maybe Naval Boot Camp will be the benadryl to relieve those allergies!

  12. pugsma said

    SP500 just hit 3974, which is the edge of the 4017 to 3974 gap down June 10th.

  13. pugsma said

    For 2022 Custom Chart Archive Service Memembs, I have updated TSLA pre-earnings announcement tonight.

    I also, updated the BioTech ETF IBB

    https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/

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