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July 14th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 14, 2022

3:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3801 to 3764, quickly hit 3722 (day’s low), rallied to 3796 (day’s high) and closed at xxxx.

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665 and the P3-C3 wave up to new all-time high is just getting underway. Minor 1 of major [1]-P3 completed at 3946. The minor 2 wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fibs retrace area of 3754 to 3705. The minor 3 wave target is at 4223, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. Ultimately the major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4434 area into years end. Note: The primary (white/green) count minor 2 of major [1] wave remains valid above 3637.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is that P2-C3 is continuing lower towards the 50% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3505. Note: The alternate (blue) count remains valid below 3919.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that major [A]-P2-C3 completed at 3637. Next is a major [B]-P2 wave that will retrace to the 38% Fib at 4086. Minor A of major [B] competed at 3946. The minor B wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fib area of 4754 to 4705. The minor C=A target is at 4031 to complete major [B]. Once major [B]-P2 completes, there will another large leg down for major [C]-P2 toward the 62% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3190. Note: The alternate (red) count minor B of major [B] wave remains valid above 3637.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

7 Responses to “July 14th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Bulls with a “stick save” for now: 1) defending the weekly gap up from 3674 to 3715 and 2) the 3637 low.

    Bulls are trying to defy the Cobra Historical odds of an 88% chance of lower low that 3637.

    To be continued…

  2. pugsma said

    The market loves to make “fools” out of the most.

    Today Bank of America chief equity strategist lower her SP500 year end target from 4500 to 3600. Year end rally to 4500 per my primary (white/green) will make here look like a “fool”.

  3. pugsma said

    The market completely punked the bears yesterday morning at 3722.

    If the SP500 can break above 3919 and 3946, the skies the limit for the bulls!

  4. pugsma said

    The NYSE A-D Line cumulative never broke down to a new lower low.

    Now attempting to make a higher high.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

  5. pugsma said

    So early last week I started to discuss the internal details of the Cobra 88% probability (49 of 56 cases since 1994) of lower lower than June 16th at 3637.

    We are now starting the 5th week since this historical stat without a lower low than 3637.

    I told you most of the 49 cases with a lower low occurred in the first or second week. Then the rest of the cases (except 1) had the lower low within 4 weeks.

    Thus the odds have clearly flipped into the bulls favor. We only have 1 case of a lower low after 4 weeks that occurs at 7 weeks and we have 6 cases that the low was in.

    Thus a lower low than 3637 probability 1/7 = 15% (Alternate blue count)
    Chances of low at 3637 is the low is 6/7 = 85% probability (primary white/green count)

  6. pugsma said

    Today’s gap up on the SP500 broke above the 60-min chart upper yellow trendline of the bullish falling wedge!

  7. Randy said

    This may bode well for your primary count.

    Unlimited buying by the ECB as they raise interest rates. The Fed may follow suit? What do you think Steve?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/ecb-bond-tool-seen-having-no-limits-as-steeper-rate-hikes-loom

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