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July 8th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 8, 2022

5:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3901 to 3890, quickly hit 3869 (day’s low), rallied to 3919 (day’s high), dropped to 3879, rallied to 3915 and closed at 3899.

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665 and the P3-C3 wave up to new all-time high is just getting underway. Minor 1 of major [1]-P3 completed at 3946. The minor 2 wave dropped to 3739, which is within the 62%/78% Fibs retrace area of 3754 to 3705. The minor 3 wave target is at 4240, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. Within minor 3 the first minute (1) up should target 3951 to 3998 before a minute (2) wave pull-back to a 50% Fib near 3818. Ultimately the major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4434 area into years end. Note: The primary (white/green) count minor 2 of major [1] wave remains valid above 3637.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is that P2-C3 is continuing lower towards the 50% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3505. Note: The alternate (blue) count remains valid below 3946.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that major [A]-P2-C3 completed at 3637. Next is a major [B]-P2 wave that will retrace to the 38% Fib at 4086. Minor A of major [B] competed at 3946. The minor B wave dropped to 3739, which is within the 62%/78% Fib area of 4754 to 4705. The minor C=A target is at 4048 to complete major [B]. Once major [B]-P2 completes, there will another large leg down for major [C]-P2 toward the 62% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3190. Note: The alternate (red) count minor B of major [B] wave remains valid above 3637.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

16 Responses to “July 8th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. jrw said

    Covering record shorts will create a lot of buying fuel

    https://twitter.com/MacroCharts/status/1545724455221137409

  2. Roger Trouesdale said

    Note: The primary (white/green) count minor 2 of major [1] wave remains valid above 4637. Is it 3637?

    • pugsma said

      Yes, minor 2 of major [1]-P3 remains valid above 3637.

      And I get even more precise, minute (2) of minor 3 of major [1]-P3 remains valid above 3739.

  3. pugsma said

    The SP500 is once again faltering at the falling 34-day EMA (3917).

    There are 5 waves up from 3739 to 3919, so the primary (white/green) count minute (1) of minor 3 could be complete as of Friday.

    • pugsma said

      Below 3819, the wave i-(1) high, the minute (1) wave up is officially over.

      Assuming 3919 ended the wave (1), the typical 50%/62% Fib retrace is 3829 to 3807.

  4. pugsma said

    The Bollinger Bands on the SP500 are getting tight. I’m expecting a massive move soon. Likely post the June CPI print on Wednesday pre-market.

    Since early January 2022, all post tight BB moves have been lower. Will this time be different?

    • pugsma said

      July is full of key data that will set the tone for the IT.

      1) July 13th – June CPI Announcement
      2) July 27th – Fed Announcement
      3) July 28th – 2Q-2022 GDP Announcement (if negative, then the US is officially in a recession)

  5. stevesumma said

    Is there much chance that current market is a diagonal? If so what level on the S&P discounts a diagonal move?

  6. pugsma said

    Looks like the SP5000 is Tracing out a small bear flag here.

  7. pugsma said

    Note: The SP500 is still trapped below the falling wedge upper trend-line (yellow) since the late March 4637 peak. Last Friday high at 3919 tagged that tend-line, clearly shown on my 60-min chart. Breaking above this trend-line would likely initiate a massive run to the upside (i.e. a wave minute (3) of minor 3 up per the primary count).

  8. pugsma said

    4-Year Presidential Cycle Seasonality (mid-term year) says no key market bottom until September. Aligned with 3505 P2-C3 bottom per alt(blue) count.

    https://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones_midterm.html

    • pugsma said

      Remember the SP500 bottoms 3 to 4 months BEFORE the recession ends.

      Primary (white/green) count with 3637 bottom in June 2022, would mean the recession ends after Q3-2022.

      Alt(blue) count with 3505 low in August/Sept means the recession ends AFTER Q4-2022.

  9. pugsma said

    If the bear flag target of 3811 doesn’t hold tomorrow, the bulls are going to slaughter on the way to fresh new lows below 3739 and below 3637.

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