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    SCI-SCV, SCA-SCC: Super Cycle
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    P1-P5, PA-PC : Primary
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July 6th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 6, 2022

7:40 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 3831, rose quickly to hit 3849, dropped to 3809 (day’s low) and then rallied to 3871 (day’s high) and closed at 3845.

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665 and the P3-C3 wave up to new all-time high is just getting underway. Minor 1 of major [1]-P3 completed at 3946. The minor 2 wave dropped to 3739, which is within the 62%/78% Fibs retrace area of 3754 to 3705. Assuming 3739 completed the minor 2 wave, the minor 3 wave target at 4240, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. Within minor 3 the first minute (1) up should target 4044. Ultimately the major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4434 area into years end. Note: The primary (white/green) count minor 2 of major [1] wave remains valid above 3637.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is that P2-C3 is continuing lower towards the 50% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3505. Note: The alternate (blue) count remains valid below 3946.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that major [A]-P2-C3 completed at 3637. Next is a major [B]-P2 wave that will retrace to the 38% Fib at 4086. Minor A of major [B] competed at 3946. The minor B wave dropped to 3739, which is within the 62%/78% Fib area of 4754 to 4705. Assuming minor B is complete at 3739, the minor C=A target is at 4048 to complete major [B]. Once major [B]-P2 completes, there will another large leg down for major [C]-P2 toward the 62% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3190. Note: The alternate (red) count minor B of major [B] wave remains valid above 3637.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM daily chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ daily chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

23 Responses to “July 6th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Just returned home to the Chicago area from the long 4th of July Holiday weekend. Did over 750 miles of driving to visit family in southern Illinois and southern Indiana.

    Here is a quick update on the SP500, IWM and QQQ charts heading into Thursday, July 7th.

  2. Robert Warmington said

    Hi Steve …. Sounds like you had a nice vacation. Great to have you back. Looking at your chart above, if the Alt Blue gets invalidated by a move above 3946, could the Red count as labeled become a new Alt Blue ? What are your thoughts?

    • pugsma said

      No, the alt (blue) count is typically reserved for a count that closely follows the primary (white/green) with a subtle difference.

  3. pugsma said

    Another great historical technical stat that aligns with the PUG SMA primary (white/green) wave count.


  4. pugsma said

    House keeping: There is no need to update the charts tonight. However since I was off Tuesday this week, I will update the charts this Friday.

    The alt(blue) count calling for a near term slightly lower low for P2-C3 below 3637 at 3505 has not been eliminated on the SP500 (3946), IWM (178.15) or QQQ (196.58). The QQQ came very close today at 195.70. However, since the retrace at 3910 is beyond the 78% Fin (3900) on the SP500 it’s highly probable the alt(blue) count will be eliminated soon.

    • pugsma said

      I will say this tonight, there a couple technical analyst who I respect that think the alt(blue) is correct and today was a ST high to be followed by a new low ST low below 3637 at 3505.

      They will give up on that low lower forecast, IF the alt(blue) count invalidation levels are breached to the upside.

  5. pugsma said

    Such a strange time in the US Economy.

    1) Likely 2nd Quarter -GDP (Atlanta Fed) combined with the 1st Quarter -GDP = Recession

    2) June NFL adds +372K Jobs!

    • pugsma said

      I should add:

      3) 50 year high annualized inflation at +8.3%

      4) A $9T Fed Balance Sheet

      4) and the Fed hell bent fighting inflation and reducing the balance sheet.

    • pugsma said

      My interpretation of all this is the strong employment data, with weak out data means that Fed has a higher probability of pulling of the “soft landing”. The Fed gets to keep raising rates and cut the balance sheet to fight inflation while people get to keep their jobs and continue spending.

  6. pugsma said

    It’s a good time to discuss the typical NFP day.

    IF gap down at the open and set a low by mid-morning, then rise into the close to close the gap.

    If gap up, then run higher all day.

  7. stevesumma said

    What level on the S&P do you think signals that the blue alternate is unfolding? Curious for adjusting stop.

  8. pugsma said

    The NYSE A-D Line cumulative is attempting to close today above where the SP500 hit 3946.


    • pugsma said

      A-D did not make a new ST high or close above where it was when the SP500 hit 3946.

      Alt(blue) count still alive.

  9. pugsma said

    QQQ did break the 296.58 high at 196.75! Allt(blue) count as labeled on QQQ is invalid.

  10. pugsma said

    CBOE Put/Call Ratio is the lowest since the March SP500 top.

    This is potentially ST bearish for the SP500.


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