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June 28th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 28, 2022

11:55 am EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3900 to 3913, quickly rose to hit 3946 (day’s high), dropped to 3859…

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [C]-P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665 and the P3-C3 wave up to new all-time high is just getting underway. The Minute (1) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave completed at 3779 and minute (2) wave at 3718. The minute (3) reached 3946, where (3)=1.62(1)=3948. Minute (4) should retrace 38% to 3859. Finally the minute (5)=(1) at 4001 to complete minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) count minute (4) of minor 1 wave is valid the minute (1) of minor 1 high at 3779. However, anything beyond the 50% Fib at 3832 likely means the correct count is the alternate (blue).
  2. The alternate (blue) count variant to the primary is that minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 peaked at 3946. The minor 2 wave is underway with a 50%/62% Fib retrace target of 3791/3754. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid above the P2-C3 low at 3637.
  3. The alternate (red) count has been modified into a situation where the SP500 will produce an IT rally to 4200-4300 into Aug/Sept 2022 and then fall to new lows towards 3200 into year 2023 as a recession unfolds. Major [A]-P2-C3 completed at 4637. Next a major [B]-P2 wave will retrace to the 50%/62% Fib at 4228 to 4370. Then a final major [C]-P2 wave will drop to the 62% Fib of P1 at 3190.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

24 Responses to “June 28th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    For the alt(blue) 3849 would likely be the end of (a) of minor 2. Now a (b) of minor bounce to the 50% Fib at 3889, then (c)=(a) down 3801 (50% Fib 3891).

    • pugsma said

      Although the primary (white/green) count invalidation levels have not been busted on SP500, IWM or QQQ, it is very likely that this pull-back is the alt(blue) count minor 2/B wave that must hold the recent lows.

  2. pugsma said

    TSLA Chart update for the 2022 CCA Service https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/

  3. pugsma said

    As Tom points out it’s been “Rinse and repeat” on the $NYMO pops during this nastily 7 month decline.


    The indices are Forming a potential bullish falling wedge though.

  4. AT said

    Based on the drop to 3820 do any of the counts get eliminated or changed or become a preferred option ?

  5. pugsma said

    It’s ok if the Thurs/Fri gap at 3797 to 3822 is filed here during minor 2/B. But bulls do not want to see the 3676 to 3715 weekly gap filled.

  6. pugsma said

    This is very important warning based on what happened today.

    The SP500 should not have gapped up from 3900, hit 3946 and plunged to 3820 by any my current analysis shown in the charts.

    However it does look exactly like what should have happened if my original alt(red) count from about a week ago (June 21st) is in play.

    That version of the alt(red) count had a potential extremely bearish wave minute (3) of minor 3 of major [C]-P2 down to the 3200 area (a -18% drop from 3900) about to kick-off after a minute (2) of minor 3 retrace to the 50%/62% fib at 3907 to 3970.

    Thus by this extremely bearish alt(red) count this morning ended minute (2) of minor 3 and minute (3) down to at least 3)=(1) at 3406 is underway.

    See this previous daily chart below.


    • pugsma said

      Be very careful with your capital here.

      The NYMO has reset above +40 and in a cascade waterfall decline per minute (3) of minor 3 of major [C]-P2 the NYMO has a lot of room to fall now to well below -100. That would bring a complete capitulation into play.

      It would also bust through the bottom of the potential bullish falling wedge.

      The next week is going to be an ultra-critical time. The SP500 can’t give up the 50%/62% Fib at 3792 to 3754 if this current rally is going to follow the path laid out on my charts from today June 28th.

    • pugsma said

      Depending on the price action the rest of this week I’ll likely convert the alt(blue) into the IT rally for Minor A-B-C for major [B]-P2 up the 4200 area over the next month or two. Then the major [C]-P2 drop 3200 into year end or early 2023.

      That will free up the alt(red) count to go back to ultra-bearish wave count from June 21st that sees minute (3) of minor 3 of major [C]-P2 to cascade much lower toward 3200 into late summer/early fall.

      • Stephen Schneider said

        Has the red count ever been your primary count, Steve? Not just for this current market cycle, but anytime previously?

  7. Robert Warmington said

    I am very confused as to what is most probable here. Yesterday it looked like both the primary and the alt red counts were headed higher. Which usually is quite positive for the market. Everything going in the same direction. Now, after the action today, it brings forth a very bearish change in the plans. Which you wisely have seen and are changing the TA. So it looks like you are seeing either a drop from here down to the 3400 area first or a move up to the 4200 area via the alt blue, before dropping down to 3200 or lower. Is this your correct thinking now ?? And do you have a percentage as to which is more probable? Thanks for all your help.

    • pugsma said

      As always the primary (white/green) is the most probable path at the time it’s posted. If things change I monitor and adjust.

      • pugsma said

        The probabilities are always ranked as primary green, alt blue and then alt red.

        Right now primary green and alt blue combined are still pointing towards at IT move up to 4200 for the many TA reasons I listed last Friday.

      • Robert Warmington said

        But you indicated that the Primary would be invalidated on a move in the QQQ below 283.45. Which it did today.

        • pugsma said

          Yes the primary (white/green) count for minor 1 reaching above 3946 in a wave (5) was invalidated on QQQ, but not on the SP500 (level us 3779). It really doesn’t matter though as I indicated near the close today that this move lower was likely the minor 2 wave to to the 50%/62% fibs at 3791 to 3754.

          It’s very simple, the charts will be updated to show a primary (white/green) count with minor 1 topped at 3946 and todays drop to 3820 to all or part of the minor 2 wave that must hold above 3637 to remain valid. This primary green count is LT bullish.

          The other potential change I hinted at is that the new alt (blue) will become what’s currently on the charts as alt(red), which is a minor A at 3946, Minor B at 3791/3754 and minor C near 4200 to complete major [B]-P2. This alt blue count is IT bullish.

          And I’ll likely bring back the very bearish near near alt(red) count from the June 21st chats. This alt red count IT to IT bearish.

  8. Stephen Schneider said

    Also, a number of indicators that have been mentioned previously as bullish for the market don’t appear to be reliable – at least for the moment anyway:
    sentiment indicators have been very bearish for quite a while now and a couple of weeks ago, an indicator stating 3 big up days usually produces very good returns as well – and the S&P can still crash to 3200? If these indicators aren’t working, perhaps they should be excluded from future discussions. We’re fighting the primary trend, which is down.

    • pugsma said

      There are zero 100% reliable TA indicators for bull or bear markets. With TA is always about probabilities.

      The three consecutive 80% upvol day indicator had historical 11 bull scenarios vs 2 bear scenarios. I clearly pointed that out when discussing the data. And the two bear historical cases dropped another nearly -10% to -20% AFTER the indicator, and then set a LT bottom. The drop from 4177 to 4637 was -11%.

      Thus even with the 2 bear cases with more downside, a key bottom was near.

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