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June 23rd, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 23, 2022

8:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3758 to 3775, rose to hit 3796, dropped to 3744 (day’s low), rose to 3802 (day’s high) and closed at 3796.

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. Since Friday, June 17th, I pointed that the SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX chart was pointing to ST and IT bottom at 3637 due to the +DIV on the NYMO and -DIV on the VIX. On Monday, June 13th the NYMO closed at -77 with a 4-month long +DIV. And then on Thursday, June 16th the NYMO closed with a ST +DIV at -72. Today, June 23rd the NYMO closed at +0.05.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [C]-P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665. The Minute (1) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave completed at 3779 and minute (2) wave at 3718. The minute (3) target area is 4003, where (3)=2.0(1). Minor 1 should reach the 4086 pivot area. Note: The primary (white/green) count if valid above 3637.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is a slight variant of the primary (white/green) count, where minute (3) of minor 5 ended at 3637 and the current move up is a minute (4) wave bounce to the 38% Fib of 3838. Once minute (4) wave completes, the final minute (5) of minor 5 of major [C] wave should drop below 3637 to where [C]=1.62[A] at 3947 and the 50% Fib retrace of P1-C3 is at 3505. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below 4099.
  3. The alternate (red) count has been modified into a situation where the SP500 will produce an IT rally to 4200-4300 into year end 2022 and fall to new lows towards 3200 into year 2023 as a deeper recession unfolds. Major [A]-P2-C3 completed at 4637. Next a major [B]-P2 wave will retrace to the 50%/62% Fib at 4228 to 4370. Then a final major [C]-P2 wave will drop to the 62% Fib of P1 at 3190.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

11 Responses to “June 23rd, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Just an FYI here: I’m very close to removing the alt(blue) count from the charts and 100% calling the IT bottom as shown per the primary (white/green) and modified alt(red) counts. If the SP-500 can move above the 38% Fib at 3838 for minute (4) of the alternate (blue) count, then the IT bottom is likely in.

    This would mean a big move up into the end of the year by both the primary (white/green) and alt(red) counts.

    • pugsma said

      Up at 3858, above the 38% Fib of alt(blue).

      Primary (white/green) and alt (red) headed much higher over IT looking good!

  2. pugsma said

    NYMO back up near +40 intra-day. Close above +20 would be solidly bullish.

  3. pugsma said

    Weekly gap dow at 3900 almost closed just now hitting 3880.

  4. pugsma said

    Also the weekly chart +DIV on the RSI gets confirmed at the close of the week.

    This type of signal is rare and typically proceeds a multi-week (several months) SP500 rally.

  5. pugsma said

    Last weeks potential “break away weekly gap down” at 3900 is now closed. That’s a big deal for the bulls. Big save this week!

    • Daniel Dufner said

      On Tuesday Walter Deemer pointed out an island bottom on the SPY daily chart. On the heels of all of the gaps down this month, then the follow through so far this week and it sure looks like down-side trend exhaustion and reversal up!

  6. stevesumma said

    Is minor 4 or minute 4 up next?

    • pugsma said

      The primary (white/green) wave count on the charts is spot on.

      Early today iii-(3) of minor 1 was hit near the 3880 target shown. Then a sideways iv-(3) all day. Wave v-(5) started into the close today with a target at 4003, where (3)=2.0(1) into early next week. Them minute (3) to 3927 on Tues/Wed and finally minute (5)=(1) at 4080 by the 4th of July Holiday weekend!

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