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June 21st, 2022: SP-500, IWM, and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 21, 2022

9:55 am EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3675 to 3715 (weekly gap up), hit 3758…

Recessions and the SP-500:

Going back to year 1948, the median peak to trough drop for the SP500 during a recession is -24% and the average is -29%.

Thus a median recession drop of -24% from the peak of 4819 is at 3662 (SP500 hit 3637 today, primary count ) and an average recession drop of -29% from the peak of 4819 is at 3421 (alt blue count).

And the look at the 1 and 2 year gains from these levels!

From a median recession drop of -24% at 3662:
1 year gain +38% to 5090 (by June 2023)
2 year gain +58% to 5786 (by June 2024)

From an average recession drop of -29% at 3421:
1 year gain +40% to 4789 (by August 2023)
2 year gain +54% to 5268 (by August 2024)

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. The Trifecta SP-500 Buy Triggered at the Close Today, Monday, June 13th.
  2. The VIX completed step 2 of the 3 step VIX Sell, SP-500 Buy signal on the close of Tuesday, June 14th. The VIX closed red on Wednesday, June 15th and the NYMO and SP-500 can close back inside their respective Bolinger Bands (BB), thus the Trifecta SP-500 Buy signal is confirmed.
  3. On Thursday, June 16th, the SP500 closed back below it’s lower BB resetting this signal. However the VIX and NYMO maintained their respective SP500 Buy Signals. The NYMO also closed higher today -73 vs -78 on Tuesday, putting in a 2-day +DIV. This ST bullish.
  4. Note that there is also a 4-month long +DIV on the NYMO and a 4-month long -DIV on the VIX. This is IT term bullish.
SP500 Technical Analysis

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [C]-P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665. Note: The primary (white/green) count if valid above 3637.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is a slight variant of the primary (white/green) count, where minute (3) of minor 5 ended at 3637, next is a minute (4) bounce the 23%/38% Fibs of 3758 to 3838 and then the final minute (5) of minor 5 of major [C] wave should drop below 3637 to where [C]=1.62[A] at 3947 and the 50% Fib retrace of P1-C3 is at 3505.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that the minor 3 of major [C]-P2-C3 is underway since minor 2 completed at 4117. he first minute (1) of minor 3 wave may have completed at 3637 and next is minute (2) bounce to a 50%/62 Fib at 3908 to 3978. Then minute (3) of minor 3 will head much lower. to where (3)=(1) at 3371. The minor 3=1 target is at 3350. Ultimately, major [C]-P2 should head towards the 62% Fib P1-C3 at 3190 and where [C]=2.0[A] at 3229. Note: The alternate (red) count if valid below 4177.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM daily chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ daily chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

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