June 16th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on June 16, 2022
7:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3789 to 3728, dropped most of the day to hit a low at 3640 and closed at 3667.
Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- The Trifecta SP-500 Buy Triggered at the Close Today, Monday, June 13th.
- The VIX completed step 2 of the 3 step VIX Sell, SP-500 Buy signal on the close of Tuesday, June 14th. The VIX closed red on Wednesday, June 15th and the NYMO and SP-500 can close back inside their respective Bolinger Bands (BB), thus the Trifecta SP-500 Buy signal is confirmed.
- On Thursday, June 16th, the SP500 closed back below it’s lower BB resetting this signal. However the VIX and NYMO maintained their respective SP500 Buy Signals. The NYMO also closed higher today -73 vs -78 on Tuesday, putting in a 2-day +DIV.
Wave Counts:
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [C]-P2-C3 completed at 3640, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665.
- The alternate (blue) count is a slight variant of the primary (white/green) count where the final minute (5) of minor 5 of major [C] wave should drop below 3640 to where [C]=1.62[A] at 3947 and the 50% Fib retrace of P1-C3 is at 3505.
- The alternate (red) count is that the minor 3 of major [C]-P2-C3 is underway since minor 2 completed at 4117. he first minute (1) of minor 3 wave may have completed today at 3640 and next is minute (2) bounce to a 50% Fib at 3908. Then minute (3) of minor 3 will head much lower. to where (3)=(1) at 3371. The minor 3=1 target is at 3350. Ultimately, major [C]-P2 should head towards the 62% Fib P1-C3 at 3190 and where [C]=2.0[A] at 3229.
Recessions and the SP-500:
Going back to year 1948, the median peak to trough drop for the SP500 during a recession is -24% and the average is -29%.
So a median recession drop of -24% from the peak of 4819 is at 3662 (SP500 hit 3637 today, primary count ) and an average recession drop of -29% from the peak of 4819 is at 3421 (alt blue count).
And the look at the 1 and 2 year gains from these levels!
From a median recession drop of -24% at 3662:
1 year gain +38% to 5090 (by June 2023)
2 year gain +58% to 5786 (by June 2024)
From an average recession drop of -29% at 3421:
1 year gain +40% to 4789 (by August 2023)
2 year gain +54% to 5268 (by August 2024)
House Keeping: Tomorrow (Friday) my weekly day off and Monday, June 20th is a USA Market Holiday. The next blog post will be on Tuesday, June 21st.
Have a great weekend !
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
IWM daily chart:
IWM weekly chart:
QQQ daily chart:
QQQ weekly chart:
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