PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog

PUG Stock Market Analysis is here to help with SP500, QQQ, IWM, Gold technical analysis, stock analysis and more.

  • Meta

  • Follow Blog via Email

    Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

  • Subscribe

  • PUG Wave Labeling

    SCI-SCV, SCA-SCC: Super Cycle
    C1-C5, CA-CC :Cycle
    P1-P5, PA-PC : Primary
    [1]-[5], [A]-[C] : Major
    1-5, A-C : Minor
    (1)-(5), (a)-(c) : Minute
    i-v, a-b : Minuette
    Primary Count:
    White/Green (Bull Market)
    White/Red (Bear Market)
    Alternate Count: Blue

  • Categories

  • Archives

June 16th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 16, 2022

7:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3789 to 3728, dropped most of the day to hit a low at 3640 and closed at 3667.

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. The Trifecta SP-500 Buy Triggered at the Close Today, Monday, June 13th.
  2. The VIX completed step 2 of the 3 step VIX Sell, SP-500 Buy signal on the close of Tuesday, June 14th. The VIX closed red on Wednesday, June 15th and the NYMO and SP-500 can close back inside their respective Bolinger Bands (BB), thus the Trifecta SP-500 Buy signal is confirmed.
  3. On Thursday, June 16th, the SP500 closed back below it’s lower BB resetting this signal. However the VIX and NYMO maintained their respective SP500 Buy Signals. The NYMO also closed higher today -73 vs -78 on Tuesday, putting in a 2-day +DIV.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [C]-P2-C3 completed at 3640, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is a slight variant of the primary (white/green) count where the final minute (5) of minor 5 of major [C] wave should drop below 3640 to where [C]=1.62[A] at 3947 and the 50% Fib retrace of P1-C3 is at 3505.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that the minor 3 of major [C]-P2-C3 is underway since minor 2 completed at 4117. he first minute (1) of minor 3 wave may have completed today at 3640 and next is minute (2) bounce to a 50% Fib at 3908. Then minute (3) of minor 3 will head much lower. to where (3)=(1) at 3371. The minor 3=1 target is at 3350. Ultimately, major [C]-P2 should head towards the 62% Fib P1-C3 at 3190 and where [C]=2.0[A] at 3229.

Recessions and the SP-500:

Going back to year 1948, the median peak to trough drop for the SP500 during a recession is -24% and the average is -29%.

So a median recession drop of -24% from the peak of 4819 is at 3662 (SP500 hit 3637 today, primary count ) and an average recession drop of -29% from the peak of 4819 is at 3421 (alt blue count).

And the look at the 1 and 2 year gains from these levels!

From a median recession drop of -24% at 3662:
1 year gain +38% to 5090 (by June 2023)
2 year gain +58% to 5786 (by June 2024)

From an average recession drop of -29% at 3421:
1 year gain +40% to 4789 (by August 2023)
2 year gain +54% to 5268 (by August 2024)

House Keeping: Tomorrow (Friday) my weekly day off and Monday, June 20th is a USA Market Holiday. The next blog post will be on Tuesday, June 21st.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM daily chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM weekly chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ daily chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ weekly chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

24 Responses to “June 16th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. AT said

    Hi – please can you share the lower timeframe charts for spx and also which levels to watch to determine if blue or red are playing out or blu e or red are eliminated

    • pugsma said

      In fast moving markets like we have had since last Thursday, nothing beyond the minute degree count is worth posting or discussing. The minute degree wave counts are present on the daily charts above.

      The alt(red) count can’t be eliminated until the recent high at 4177 is broken.

  2. Ron Blauvelt said

    PUG — what is current probability % for each wave count ? Thanks in advance.

    • pugsma said

      The primary and alt(blue) are basically the same wave count that will hold the 50% Fib at 3505.

      So primary/alt(blue) 70 to 75%
      Alt(blue) 30% to 25%

  3. pugsma said

    The Mystery Broker still supports the primary/alt(blue) wave count.

    https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/status/1537797849118871552?s=21&t=kBvhE_0lAAlqWUAOwZYsxA

  4. pugsma said

    SP500 is more oversold than at March 2020 Covid bottom of 2192.

    Only 2% SP500 members above the 50-day SMA.

    https://twitter.com/timmerfidelity/status/1537797558709387264?s=21&t=kBvhE_0lAAlqWUAOwZYsxA

  5. pugsma said

    The ZBT reset below 0.40 yesterday.

    Thus today starts trading day 1 of a 10 day attempt to get above 0.615 by Friday July 1st. Accounts for Holiday on Monday June 20th.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21BINYBT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p32123590350&a=427381773&r=1604930894355&cmd=print

  6. pugsma said

    My latest market tweet:

    https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1537859644470747137?s=21&t=kBvhE_0lAAlqWUAOwZYsxA

  7. pugsma said

    I need to correct something I stayed yesterday. Going back to year 1948, the median peak to trough drop for the SP500 during a recession is -24% and the average is -29%. I stated 28% to -35% yesterday.

    So a median recession drop of -24% from 4819 is at 3662 (SP500 hit 3637 today, primary count )

    And an average recession drop of -29% from 4819 is at 3421 (alt blue count).

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/img_3284-1.jpg

    Reference Yahoo Finance Article
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/history-stocks-recession-102913314.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMKKAiEGc7G9F2qS8WR5fd-t4M9cZweJdxpLywIEIbUcZwVW6eyqiF4WzbHpw7klne1dtix9PTn_2kBIS4AT9XKiT0ngq56AkpR0RApLIhTtkrRGd4sAwTOoyECrCBHpx4GtvPKsHQRc0xK4PyHTsQTb9B9bLVxNG3ZJgxjbRZS9

    • pugsma said

      And the look at the 1 and 2 year gains from these levels!

      From a median recession drop of -24% at 3662:
      1 year gain +38% to 5090 (by June 2023)
      2 year gain +58% to 5786 (by June 2024)

      From an average recession drop of -29 at 3421:
      1 year gain +40% to 4789 (by August 2023)
      2 year gain +54% to 5268 (by August 2024)

  8. jrw said

    Although I hope the SP500 primary count wins out, the MA(200) on the weekly chart is 3,502 which aligns well with the alternate blue count. Sometimes. It seems like these key MA’s act as a magnet when price gets close.

    • jrw said

      Steve, thanks for correcting. Have a great extended weekend and Father’s Day.

  9. pugsma said

    BTC just hit $18,718 and broke the Dec 2017 high of $19,650 but held the NYXBT (NYSE BTC Index) closing price of $18,724. The 78% Fib retrace is at $17,586 of the $3250 to $68,412 post 3rd halving bull run.

    Below this area $18,724 to $17,586 area the next support comes in at $12,802 and the 88% Fib retrace at $11,069.

  10. pugsma said

    Interesting the drop in BTC has been almost precisely 3X the the drop in SP500.

    And the drops in BTC have been leading the drops in the the SP500 by a few days to a week.

    Thus after todays drop to $17,567 from $69,000 in Nov ‘21, BTC is down -74.5%.

    -74.5% / 3 = -24.8% for the SP500 = 4819 – (.248*4819) = 3621

    But if we look more closely at the recent BTC drop from $32,384 to $17,567 that’s -45.8%. This BTC drop corresponds the plunge in the SP500 from 4177.

    -45.8% / 3 = -15.3% for the SP500 = 4177 – (0.153*4177) = 3539

    So we should look the SP500 to make a new low below 3637 next week in the 3539 area.

    If BTC keeps falling below $17,567 this Holiday weekend you can do the math to see where the SPX is headed next week.

    • pugsma said

      And and if we zoom into just this weekends drop in BTC: we have $20,495 from near market close at 3675 on the SP500. BTC just hit $17,567 or a -14.3% drop. Thus, the SP500 should drop -14.3% / 3 = -4.8% next week.

      3675 – (0.048*3675) = 3500 right at the 50% Fib retrace at 3505 per the alt(blue) count.

    • pugsma said

      Wow! $BTC just made a full recovery from $20,500 Friday to $17,567 Saturday to $20,500 Sunday.

      Let’s see how ES Futures open in about an hour. Will ES dip too and then recover? There will be 39.5 hours of ES trading before the equity markets open at 9:30am EST on Tuesday, 6/21.

      https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/img_3309.jpg

      • pugsma said

        ES +27 above 3700, so it looks like the BTC full recovery has saved the day

        Long way to hold on until cash markets open Tuesday morning.

        IF BTC can climb above $23,000, this could be a great bottom signal to the IT.

  11. Victoria Hubbard said

    Steve, what is the primary count minute (1) of minor 1 of major [1] target? Thank you!

    • pugsma said

      Difficult to say, but likely around previous low of 3810 from May.

      However since today is likely at least at 80% upvol day, maybe 90% upvol. It would be more bullish if tomorrow is a big up day as well in order to get back-to-back 80% upvol days or better.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

 
%d bloggers like this: