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June 16th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 16, 2022

7:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3789 to 3728, dropped most of the day to hit a low at 3640 and closed at 3667.

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. The Trifecta SP-500 Buy Triggered at the Close Today, Monday, June 13th.
  2. The VIX completed step 2 of the 3 step VIX Sell, SP-500 Buy signal on the close of Tuesday, June 14th. The VIX closed red on Wednesday, June 15th and the NYMO and SP-500 can close back inside their respective Bolinger Bands (BB), thus the Trifecta SP-500 Buy signal is confirmed.
  3. On Thursday, June 16th, the SP500 closed back below it’s lower BB resetting this signal. However the VIX and NYMO maintained their respective SP500 Buy Signals. The NYMO also closed higher today -73 vs -78 on Tuesday, putting in a 2-day +DIV.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [C]-P2-C3 completed at 3640, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is a slight variant of the primary (white/green) count where the final minute (5) of minor 5 of major [C] wave should drop below 3640 to where [C]=1.62[A] at 3947 and the 50% Fib retrace of P1-C3 is at 3505.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that the minor 3 of major [C]-P2-C3 is underway since minor 2 completed at 4117. he first minute (1) of minor 3 wave may have completed today at 3640 and next is minute (2) bounce to a 50% Fib at 3908. Then minute (3) of minor 3 will head much lower. to where (3)=(1) at 3371. The minor 3=1 target is at 3350. Ultimately, major [C]-P2 should head towards the 62% Fib P1-C3 at 3190 and where [C]=2.0[A] at 3229.

Recessions and the SP-500:

Going back to year 1948, the median peak to trough drop for the SP500 during a recession is -24% and the average is -29%.

So a median recession drop of -24% from the peak of 4819 is at 3662 (SP500 hit 3637 today, primary count ) and an average recession drop of -29% from the peak of 4819 is at 3421 (alt blue count).

And the look at the 1 and 2 year gains from these levels!

From a median recession drop of -24% at 3662:
1 year gain +38% to 5090 (by June 2023)
2 year gain +58% to 5786 (by June 2024)

From an average recession drop of -29% at 3421:
1 year gain +40% to 4789 (by August 2023)
2 year gain +54% to 5268 (by August 2024)

House Keeping: Tomorrow (Friday) my weekly day off and Monday, June 20th is a USA Market Holiday. The next blog post will be on Tuesday, June 21st.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM daily chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM weekly chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ daily chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ weekly chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

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