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June 13th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 13, 2022

5:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3901 to 3838, hit 3751, rallied to 3813 and dropped to 3734 (day’s low) and closed at 3750.

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. The Trifecta SP-500 Buy Triggered at the Close Today, Monday June 13th.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is for a P2 major [A]-[B]-[C] single zig-zag, where one more lower low (i.e. below 3810) for minor 5 of major [C]-P2 is playing out to a target of 3665, where [C]=1.38[A].
  2. The alternate (blue) count is completely a different P2 wave count for a major [W]=[X]=[Y] double zig-zag that will reach at least the 50% Fib retrace of P1 at 3501. This alternate (blue) count certainly has a the “right look” when you compare some of the wave ratios between major [W] and major [Y].

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

13 Responses to “June 13th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Notice on the SP500 weekly chart there is a developing “potential” +DIV on the RSI wrt price. This hasn’t happened since Dec 2008 to Mar 2009.

    The QQQ and IWM weekly charts also have this rare same +DIV on the RSI.

  2. pugsma said

    August 2015 was the last time the NYSE saw three consecutive 90% DVol days, like we just witnessed today.

    https://twitter.com/global_trader/status/1536389371825463296?s=21&t=aX0CdS8xTSwfOigYdNQf-Q

  3. pugsma said

    The big problem the market bottoming has now is the catalyst is missing with May CPI increasing wrt to April CPI. The bar was low to set the 3810 key bottom, with the May CPI only needing to show flat to a small incremental improvement vs April.

    Now the only near-term catalyst would be a surprise 1.0% Fed Rate Hike on Wednesday, 6/15.

    • pugsma said

      And along with the Fed rate hike surprise on Wed June 15th, the June CPI report on Wed July 13th will need to flat to slightly incrementally improved vs May.

      Those two items will likely be needed for the SP500 to hold the 50% Fib at 3505 as the P2-C3 low this summer.

      • droc14 said

        Hi Steve – Assuming the alt blue plays out it would not surprise me to see the market “wait around” for July 13th in alt blue [4] in some triangle. If you go back to August 2011 after that hard move down the market was in a triangle for the better part of late August, September then bottoming in early October with the fed QE catalyst. This could be a very choppy, confusing difficult period to trade.

  4. pugsma said

    FYI I’m back up to 1.5X long at the close today. Plan is to increase back up to 2X to 3X long between here at 3750 and 3505.

  5. pugsma said

    Occurrences of 4 days of selling this hard…

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1536441516557643777?s=21&t=aX0CdS8xTSwfOigYdNQf-Q

  6. pugsma said

    We had a reverse Zweig Breadth Trust fire on Friday.

    Drop from above 0.615 to below 0.40 within 10 trading days.

    Signal is -7% average drop from Friday’s 3900 close, which is 3627.

    https://twitter.com/quantifiabledgs/status/1536086597388623872?s=21&t=aX0CdS8xTSwfOigYdNQf-Q

  7. ZH said

    Are we in iv-a-(4) blue line in SP500? I am lost where we are now. Could you please clarify? I was not sure if I should post here on SP500 blog or QQQ blog? Thank you.

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