June 9th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on June 9, 2022
5:20 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4115 to 4102, quick hit 4087, rose to 4119 (day’s high), then dropped the rest of the day to close on the low at 4017.
The minor 2 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave is underway across the SP-500, IMW and QQQ. Fib targets are shown on the charts.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
28 Responses to “June 9th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”
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pugsma said
If you are a simple trend follower, you can clearly see on the daily charts that the SP500, IWM and QQQ all closed below their respective falling 50-day SMA and are still well within the daily chart down channels.
Simple trend analysis says stay in cash or short until those levels are broken on the upside. 90%+ of institutional investor and traders follow this simple method.
pugsma said
Of I’ve NEVER once invested that way and NEVER will.
I’m 100% contrarian and like to trade in bullish bursts off key levels well ahead of the herd (sheep).
pugsma said
The consensus drumbeat now by most market analysts, company COE/CFO’s is a recession in the first half of 2023 and the SP500 trading below 3200, which is -20% lower from today close at 4017.
I won’t concede this unless 3810 is broken. So don’t expect that alt(red) P2-C2 wave count back on the charts until then.
pugsma said
At a minimum the SP500 owes a close above 4308. So after this dip there is likely another run up to 4308+.
That would be the point at which a bigger correction below 3810 could unfold into year 2023 IF a recession ensues.
Donald Petersen said
Why doesnt the VIX move up anymore. People not buying insurance, just deciding to sell????? Doesnt make sense?
ZH said
Hi PUG,
Could you please elaborate from 4177 ,is this a complex form waves of abX abc form for major 2 wave? thank you.
pugsma said
This is a minor 2 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave, not major [2].
So far at 3904 is just above the 78% Fib retrace of 3810 to 4177. 88% Fib is 3854.
pugsma said
Yet another gauge showing extreme washed out sentiment, similar to other key market bottoms.
https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1534565978352234496?s=21&t=ALL8tGtWg98NVsJciCoY1g
pugsma said
Interesting SPY data here on the high potential of a snap-back rally to fill the gap down and more up…
https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1535250873978220549?s=21&t=ALL8tGtWg98NVsJciCoY1g
pugsma said
Recall the closing low from May 20th is at 3900. A new closing low for the the SP500 below 3900 with all the key daily indicators (RSI, MACD, A-D Line, NYMO) well above their respective May 20th levels is a big set of potential +DIV.
pugsma said
NYMO daily closes above -68 (last at -40) and VIX closes below 35 (last at 29) are constructive.
MS53 said
can you suggest a minute wave structure yet on the downmove ?
pugsma said
No intention of looking at a computer screen on my day off. Just watch the 78% Fib at 3891 and 88% Fib at 3854.
Below the 88% Fib of 3854, a new P2-C3 low below 3810 is likely in the 3773 area.
MS53 said
Thanks. Have a good one !!
pugsma said
Interestingly the -20% (Bear Market) closing price is at 3855, same as the 88% Fib target.
Closing below 3855, triggers the Bear Market Headlines!
pugsma said
We are looking at the Worst back-to-back days of losses on SPY (-5.2%) since June 2020.
https://twitter.com/mikezaccardi/status/1535285748307529728?s=21&t=ALL8tGtWg98NVsJciCoY1g
pugsma said
Yesterday was a 93% DVol day on the NYSE.
https://twitter.com/walterdeemer/status/1535000177760690188?s=21&t=ALL8tGtWg98NVsJciCoY1g
Today is running at 88% DVol day on the NYSE
https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1535309617143717889?s=21&t=ALL8tGtWg98NVsJciCoY1g
Back-to-back 90% DVol is as rare as the back-to-back-to-back 80% UVol days we just saw.
pugsma said
Things are happening in 2022 that haven’t happened often or all in the history of the markets.
Consumer sentiment hit a 40 year low today at 50, worse than the depths of the Great Recession of 2008.
pugsma said
And yet the Fed’s Financial Stress Gauge is near the lowest on record and Unemployment is at a 40 year low.
https://twitter.com/stlouisfed/status/1532512652555165696?s=21&t=ALL8tGtWg98NVsJciCoY1g
pugsma said
Chart of the 90% DVol days since 2016.
Here in 2022: 5 DVoll days since April. 4 before the 3810 low and now 1 after.
Year 2020: Notice the cluster of DVol days before and one after the March 2020 low.
https://twitter.com/mcclellanosc/status/1535322469271101466?s=21&t=Av9P2_xxG-hwPF6SEgcWHQ
pugsma said
More +DIV. This one in the # of stocks on the NYSE and Nasdaq making new lows now vs May 20th.
The number of stocks making new lows on 5/20 on the NYSE was 364. Today (so far) 236. Naz had 1710 new lows on 5/8. Today (so far) 441
https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1535336455626702848?s=21&t=Av9P2_xxG-hwPF6SEgcWHQ
AT said
But the low on May 20 was much lower so why will it be a + div –
pugsma said
Daily chart indicator divergences are based on the closing price (not intra-day).
SP500 Closing Prices
5/19: 3900.79
5/20: 3901.36
6/10: 3900.86
AT said
That is good to know – thank you for sharing !!
stevesumma said
You previously remarked that Friday down days were usually followed by down days the following Monday. Do you think that will be the case this Monday?
pugsma said
That’s not what I’ve said.
I have said that historically key market lows are more likely to occur on a Mon/Tues versus a Friday.
pugsma said
Right now we a “potential” key market low at 3810, which occurred on Friday, May 20th. We’ll see if this low holds…
Robert Warmington said
Please give us on thoughts on the recent bitcoin drop, We are almost down to your white/green low for this fall, 25,900. If we get a bottom here on the SPX above 3810, could this give bitcoin room to rally this summer and then fall to your 25,900 area this fall ?