June 7th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on June 7, 2022
6:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gaped down from 4121 to 4098, quickly hit 4080 (day’s low), rallied the rest of the day to 4165 (day’s high) and closed 4161.
Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: Closed up at +60 and has remained solidly above the zero line for 10 days.
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: On Friday, May 27th, the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative closed above the level when the SP-500 closed at 4308. The NYSE A-D Line has been leading the SP500 price.
- VIX: Closed down -4.2% at 24.02
- NYSE Volume: The NYSE had three consecutive days of > 80% upside volume on May 25th (83%), May 26th (87%) and May 27th (86%). This signal is indicative of a major market bottom. Since year 1970 there have 10 of 12 signals (83%) were major bottoms that lead to new all-time highs. The other 2 of 12 (17%) signals were near major bottoms that made one additional lower low and then made all-time new highs.
- Chart Pattern: On the 15-min chart there is a triangle between 4074 and 4168 that has a measured move target at 4262.
Wave Counts:
- The primary (white/green) wave count has the P2-C3 low at 3810, which is right at the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3. The minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave up is underway. Minute (4) of minor 1 appears to be playing out as a triangle wave between 4074 and 4168, which above the 38% Fib retrace is at 4057. Once the minute (4) triangle completes, the minute (5) target is at (5)=(1) at 4251 to complete minor 1. There is also a higher target at (5)=1.62(1) at 4357. Once the minor 1 wave completes, there will be a significant pull-back for minor 2 to at least the 50% Fib at 4031 (basis minor 1 completing at 4251). Then the minor 3, 4, and 5 waves will take the Major [1]-P3 initial target up to near 5000 into the spring to early summer of 2023, see the daily chart. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4074.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 completed at 4177. The minor 2 wave pull-back in underway with at 50% Fib retrace target of 3994. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid above 3810.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
24 Responses to “June 7th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”
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pugsma said
The e-(4) wave will typically retrace 50% or less of the d-(4) wave, which is at 4123.
pugsma said
Held at 4130. 🙂
pugsma said
Now down at 4110 and very deep retrace for a triangle e-(4) of minor 1 wave. Most hold the d-(4) low at 4080. But Chances are growing that the minor 1 top is place at 4177 and a minor 2 wave to 3994 is underway.
pugsma said
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Boiler Up!
https://mobile.twitter.com/lifeatpurdue/status/1534537987492569088?s=12&t=WbCcPDbl8qGqEHQLNFo3Sg
pugsma said
I just watched live the merge (POW to POS) of the Ethreum testnet Ropsten. The Ethereum Developers all when silent as 17% of the POS blocks failed post merge. It was cringe worthy.
They tried to cover it and call it a “successful” Proof of Stake merge on a the testnet Ropsten. But it looks like more delays ahead for the real Ethereum Merge.
https://twitter.com/fxmacro/status/1534575723368927233?s=21&t=yXXhaO43sPHixChnhdlO-g
pugsma said
House Keeping: Until the SP500 breaks above 4177 or below 4074, there won’t be a need to update the charts. Next blog update dependent on those price level breaks.
AT said
Pug would love to get your insights on why you think wave 1 May be over – more from a learning perspective
pugsma said
1) There are a clean set of 5 minute degree waves up 3810 to 4177.
2) This potential minute (4) triangle has now taken a disproportionate amount of time wrt minute waves (1), (2), and (3).
On the positive side of minor 1 continuing higher than 4177, this minute (4) triangle has held the typical max 38% Fib (4057) of a wave 4.
Friday’s CPI May report looms…
AT said
Thank you !! Seeing a potential triangle form near the second half of the day – or either a W4 of wave C of e OR a wave b triangle for wave 2 down ?
pugsma said
A near perfect rectangle now between 4074 and 4168 (94 point range).
Break above 4168, the measured move is 4168 + 94 => 4262
Break down below 4074, the measured move is 4074 -94 => 3980
Place your bets! May CPI Report Friday at 8:30 am EST
pugsma said
Odds are slightly in the bulls favor, as the move coming into the consolidation rectangle was up and thus move out is biased higher.
pugsma said
And the even more bullish classic TA pattern is a “flag at half staff”.
Measured move is the height of the flag pole added to the bottom of the flag.
(4168 – 3820) + 4074 => 4432 (right at the 200-day SMA of 4444.
pugsma said
A false break down below 4074 at the close and rip higher on Friday would like fool the most traders.
pugsma said
Here it comes 4075….
pugsma said
Remember the broad market NYSE A-D Line cumulative recently made a higher high than in early May when the SP500 had a 4308 close.
IF the SP500 doesn’t close above 4308 during this move up from 3810, it would be the first time I’ve seen this leading indicator fail in 12+ years.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354
pugsma said
It’s a minor 2 wave now.
Brag case is a minor 2 expanded flat where (c) = 1.62(a) at 4024
pugsma said
Bears won another battle.
They can crush it now into the weekend…
pugsma said
38% Fib of 3810 to 4177 is at 4034, near the minimum expanded flat target of 4024.
pugsma said
Hoping to see 4024 to 4034 at the close today.
pugsma said
Patiently waiting here to get back to 300% long after dropping below 100% during my vacation.
I’d love to see 4034-4024 today and 3994-3980 tomorrow.
pugsma said
There is a gap to fill around 3970
MS53 said
it’s at 3978.50 from May 25/26. Right at your rectangle MM target of 3980.
pugsma said
There is the 4024 area, close at 4017.
pugsma said
Everyone and there brother looking for the consolidation to break higher and then the complete rug pull the day before the May CPI.