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June 7th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 7, 2022

6:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gaped down from 4121 to 4098, quickly hit 4080 (day’s low), rallied the rest of the day to 4165 (day’s high) and closed 4161.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. NYMO: Closed up at +60 and has remained solidly above the zero line for 10 days.
  2. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: On Friday, May 27th, the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative closed above the level when the SP-500 closed at 4308. The NYSE A-D Line has been leading the SP500 price.
  3. VIX: Closed down -4.2% at 24.02
  4. NYSE Volume: The NYSE had three consecutive days of > 80% upside volume on May 25th (83%), May 26th (87%) and May 27th (86%)This signal is indicative of a major market bottom. Since year 1970 there have 10 of 12 signals (83%) were major bottoms that lead to new all-time highs. The other 2 of 12 (17%) signals were near major bottoms that made one additional lower low and then made all-time new highs.
  5. Chart Pattern: On the 15-min chart there is a triangle between 4074 and 4168 that has a measured move target at 4262.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count has the P2-C3 low at 3810, which is right at the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3. The minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave up is underway. Minute (4) of minor 1 appears to be playing out as a triangle wave between 4074 and 4168, which above the 38% Fib retrace is at 4057. Once the minute (4) triangle completes, the minute (5) target is at (5)=(1) at 4251 to complete minor 1. There is also a higher target at (5)=1.62(1) at 4357. Once the minor 1 wave completes, there will be a significant pull-back for minor 2 to at least the 50% Fib at 4031 (basis minor 1 completing at 4251). Then the minor 3, 4, and 5 waves will take the Major [1]-P3 initial target up to near 5000 into the spring to early summer of 2023, see the daily chart.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4074.
  2. The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 completed at 4177. The minor 2 wave pull-back in underway with at 50% Fib retrace target of 3994. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid above 3810.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SPP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

24 Responses to “June 7th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    The e-(4) wave will typically retrace 50% or less of the d-(4) wave, which is at 4123.

  2. pugsma said

    My fellow Purdue Engineers working on a way to charge electric cars while driving down the road!

    Boiler Up!


  3. pugsma said

    I just watched live the merge (POW to POS) of the Ethreum testnet Ropsten. The Ethereum Developers all when silent as 17% of the POS blocks failed post merge. It was cringe worthy.

    They tried to cover it and call it a “successful” Proof of Stake merge on a the testnet Ropsten. But it looks like more delays ahead for the real Ethereum Merge.


  4. pugsma said

    House Keeping: Until the SP500 breaks above 4177 or below 4074, there won’t be a need to update the charts. Next blog update dependent on those price level breaks.

  5. AT said

    Pug would love to get your insights on why you think wave 1 May be over – more from a learning perspective

    • pugsma said

      1) There are a clean set of 5 minute degree waves up 3810 to 4177.

      2) This potential minute (4) triangle has now taken a disproportionate amount of time wrt minute waves (1), (2), and (3).

      On the positive side of minor 1 continuing higher than 4177, this minute (4) triangle has held the typical max 38% Fib (4057) of a wave 4.

      Friday’s CPI May report looms…

      • AT said

        Thank you !! Seeing a potential triangle form near the second half of the day – or either a W4 of wave C of e OR a wave b triangle for wave 2 down ?

  6. pugsma said

    A near perfect rectangle now between 4074 and 4168 (94 point range).

    Break above 4168, the measured move is 4168 + 94 => 4262

    Break down below 4074, the measured move is 4074 -94 => 3980

    Place your bets! May CPI Report Friday at 8:30 am EST

    • pugsma said

      Odds are slightly in the bulls favor, as the move coming into the consolidation rectangle was up and thus move out is biased higher.

    • pugsma said

      And the even more bullish classic TA pattern is a “flag at half staff”.

      Measured move is the height of the flag pole added to the bottom of the flag.

      (4168 – 3820) + 4074 => 4432 (right at the 200-day SMA of 4444.

  7. pugsma said

    A false break down below 4074 at the close and rip higher on Friday would like fool the most traders.

  8. pugsma said

    Remember the broad market NYSE A-D Line cumulative recently made a higher high than in early May when the SP500 had a 4308 close.

    IF the SP500 doesn’t close above 4308 during this move up from 3810, it would be the first time I’ve seen this leading indicator fail in 12+ years.


  9. pugsma said

    It’s a minor 2 wave now.

    Brag case is a minor 2 expanded flat where (c) = 1.62(a) at 4024

  10. pugsma said

    Everyone and there brother looking for the consolidation to break higher and then the complete rug pull the day before the May CPI.

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