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June 2nd, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 2, 2022

7:25 pm EST: The SP-500 gaped down from 4101 to 4098, quickly hit 4074 (day’s low), rallied the rest of the day to close on the high at 4177.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. NYMO: . On Friday May 27th, the NYMO closed above zero six consecutive days and closed at +106 Friday, May 27th. This type of NYMO strength is extremely rare.
  2. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: On Friday, May 27th, the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative closed above the level when the SP-500 closed at 4308. The NYSE A-D Line has been leading the SP500 price.
  3. VIX: Closed red on Wed, June 1st with a red SP500 close. Typically leads to a SP500 green closed the following day.
  4. NYSE Volume: The NYSE had three consecutive days of > 80% upside volume on May 25th (83%), May 26th (87%) and May 27th (86%)This signal is indicative of a major market bottom. Since year 1970 there have 10 of 12 signals (83%) were major bottoms that lead to new all-time highs. 2 of 12 (17%) were near major bottoms that made one more lower low and then made all-time new highs.
  5. Chart Pattern: On the 15-min chart there is bull flag between 4158 and 4074 that has a measured move target at 4242.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count has the P2-C3 low at 3810, which is right at the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3. The minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave up is underway. Wave minute (1) of minor 1 peaked as 5 waves at 3981. The minute (2) wave retraced to the 62% Fib at 3876. The minute (3) target was at 1.62*(1) = 4152 and hit 4158 on Friday, May 27th. For minute (4) a 38% Fib retrace is at 4051 and the SP500 hit 4074 on Wed, June 1sst. Finally, the minute (5) target is at (5)=(1) at 4245 to complete minor 1 and there is also a higher target at (5)=1.62(1) (blue labels). Once minor 1 completes, there will be a significant pull-back for minor 2 to at least the 50% Fib at 4028 (basis minor 1 completing at 4245). The Major [1]-P3 initial target is at 5006 in the spring to early summer of 2023, see the daily chart.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid for minute (4) of minor 1 wave above the minute (1) high at 3981. Once minor 1 completes, the minor 2 pull-back is valid above the P2 low of 3810.

House Keeping: I will on vacation from Friday, June 3rd through Wednesday, June 8th. There will be no blog posts on those days. The last blog post before my vacation will be on Thursday, June 2nd.

Have a great weekend!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

10 Responses to “June 2nd, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    It’s pretty simple here with the SP500, IWM and QQQ all making new minute (5) wave highs yesterday.

    1) If the minor 1 wave up is going to extended beyond yesterday’s highs, then the respective minute (4) wave lows of 4073, 181.27 and 303.40 most hold.

    2) If those levels are broken, then minor 2 is underway to at least a 50% Fib retrace of the run up from the respective lows of 3810, 168.90 and 280.21.

    3) Break the lows of 3810, 168.90 and 280.21 and Houston We Have (Big) Problem.

    • pugsma said

      My thinking based on how big today’s drop is, is that it’s likely scenario 2) above: A Minor 2 pull-back during my vacation and into the Friday June 10th CPI report.

      • pugsma said

        Assuming 4177 capped minor 1, The 50%/62% Fibs for minor 2 are at 3993 and 3950.

        There is gap just above the 3950 pivot that could be filled.

    • MS53 said

      If triangle is still alive, is today’s drop wave c ?

  2. pugsma said

    Ok getting ready to board my flight. I’ll check back in on the markets next week.

  3. pugsma said

    Primary (white/green) count: As long as Fridays low at 4098 holds, then this looks like the e-(4) wave completion to a minute (4) wave triangle. Wave Minute (5) of minor 1 up above 4177 yet to come.

    If 4098 and 4073 breaks down, then it’s the minor 2 wave correction to the 50%/62% Fibs of 3994 and 3950.

    • droc14 said

      not to confuse anything but the last week or so looks like a very large triangle since the 4158 high or from the 4168 level:

      A- 4073.85 (critical low to hold)
      B- 4177.51
      C- today am at 4080.19
      D- assuming 4080 holds or at least A of 4073.85 holds then a D up to top of the range (assume 4150-4175)
      E – once D completes to hold the 4073 level but more likely 4100 or so to hold for E.

      Given the Friday report on inflation this sort of makes sense that we chop around until then. The triangle above hinges on 4073.85 holding.

  4. pugsma said

    House Keeping: We decided to cut our trip short by two days and changed our flight home to Monday night instead of Wednesday night. I’ll get a chart update out during the day on Tuesday, June 7th

  5. kazoom1618 said

    I just posted an IHS pattern for TSLA in CCA.

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